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  #721  
Old 21.06.2021, 13:36
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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All told we are up 29% on FS and a measly 3.6% on SSON, all accounts combined.
I'm up 94% on SSON. Maybe I should get out now.
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  #722  
Old 21.06.2021, 13:39
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I'm up 94% on SSON. Maybe I should get out now.
Maybe you should invest more
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  #723  
Old 21.06.2021, 13:44
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Maybe you should invest more
Should have invested more at £9........ Extreme volatility can be your friend
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  #724  
Old 21.06.2021, 13:47
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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With all due respect I think I’ve seen that said on Reddit’s WallStreetBets…
I said the same about Apple here many years ago when I had the majority of my net worth in Apple. Apple was finished & most people were laughing at me. Easiest double in 18 months!
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  #725  
Old 21.06.2021, 14:31
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Let me know if I've made any mistakes - I often do. In any case - I would marginally rather have my money with FS than with MSCI world quality ex-CH all things being equal, but not at the cost of the 3a tax shelter. For me the maths suggest that the 3a is worthwhile.
That's a really cool analysis but I think you might be comparing performance of CSIF World Quality ex CH return in CHF with Fundsmith in GBP from morningstar.uk site. (I have made the same mistake in the past)

Data from Fundsmith Factsheet:
Fundsmith I class CHF ACC was +12.4% through 31 May:
Price 31 Dec 36.26 CHF, Price 31 May 40.75 CHF.

Morningstar.ch gives the same performance in CHF as FS factsheet (but the site is all in German). On 18 June FS was +16.9% YTD (Price 42.39 CHF)

Last edited by jim1; 21.06.2021 at 14:33. Reason: clarification
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  #726  
Old 21.06.2021, 16:06
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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That's a really cool analysis but I think you might be comparing performance of CSIF World Quality ex CH return in CHF with Fundsmith in GBP from morningstar.uk site. (I have made the same mistake in the past)

Data from Fundsmith Factsheet:
Fundsmith I class CHF ACC was +12.4% through 31 May:
Price 31 Dec 36.26 CHF, Price 31 May 40.75 CHF.

Morningstar.ch gives the same performance in CHF as FS factsheet (but the site is all in German). On 18 June FS was +16.9% YTD (Price 42.39 CHF)
Urgh you are right - its misleading with the graph being in GBP with title suggesting CHF.

That said, 1.26 CHF / 1 GBP on 1 January 2017 to 1.27 CHF / 1 GBP on 31 May 2021 suggests that the currency should barely matter. If the FX rate is (almost) the same at the start and end date you can compare performance in different currencies right?
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  #727  
Old 21.06.2021, 16:16
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Urgh you are right - its misleading with the graph being in GBP with title suggesting CHF.

That said, 1.26 CHF / 1 GBP on 1 January 2017 to 1.27 CHF / 1 GBP on 31 May 2021 suggests that the currency should barely matter. If the FX rate is (almost) the same at the start and end date you can compare performance in different currencies right?
Fundsmith EU which shows prices in $/£/CHF/€ no longer has an identical portfolio than the UK fund, the shares held are the same, however the quantities are different.
UK fund YTD to end May + 6.1% YTD in £
LUX fund YTD to end of May
+ 5.91 in £
+ 10.7% in Euro
+ 12.38% CHF
+ 9.9% USD
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  #728  
Old 21.06.2021, 17:00
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Urgh you are right - its misleading with the graph being in GBP with title suggesting CHF.

That said, 1.26 CHF / 1 GBP on 1 January 2017 to 1.27 CHF / 1 GBP on 31 May 2021 suggests that the currency should barely matter. If the FX rate is (almost) the same at the start and end date you can compare performance in different currencies right?
I agree it is confusing

5 years return to 31 May 2021, return in CHF:

CS MSCI world quality ex-CH 107.76% or 15.75% pa
Fundsmith I Acc CHF 105.50% or 15.49% pa

So the same. I am surprised the MSCI factor ETF keeps up - thanks for having pointed this out

(CS data per the factsheet you linked, FS price 31 May 40.75, price 1 june 2016 19.83. Return before taxes and broker fees)
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  #729  
Old 21.06.2021, 17:03
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I agree it is confusing

5 years return to 31 May 2021, return in CHF:

CS MSCI world quality ex-CH 107.76% or 15.75% pa
Fundsmith I Acc CHF 105.50% or 15.49% pa

So the same. I am surprised the MSCI factor ETF keeps up - thanks for having pointed this out

(CS data per the factsheet you linked, FS price 31 May 40.75, price 1 june 2016 19.83. Return before taxes and broker fees)
Thanks Jim. Do you have a 10 year performance handy? (I would do myself but I get the distinct impression you are significantly more competent!) I ask because my impression is FS was nigh on unstoppable in the early half of the 2010s, vs pretty average for a quality fund in the latter half (as demonstrated by more or less equalling the quality index from 2017).

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 21.06.2021 at 17:14.
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  #730  
Old 21.06.2021, 19:32
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

Per my calcs 10 year return in CHF to end May 2021:

Fundsmith GBP I class Acc 16.8% pa
MSCI World Quality 14.6% pa
MSCI World 11.5% pa


100k CHF invested in FS would have become 473k CHF. In MSCI World Quality 390 k CHF and MSCI World 298k CHF.

(used FS GBP I Class Acc as CHF version of SICAV only started in 2012 and MSCI World Quality USD as could not find data for the ex CH version. Converted to CHF using oanda fx rates)
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  #731  
Old 21.06.2021, 20:56
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Per my calcs 10 year return in CHF to end May 2021:

Fundsmith GBP I class Acc 16.8% pa
MSCI World Quality 14.6% pa
MSCI World 11.5% pa


100k CHF invested in FS would have become 473k CHF. In MSCI World Quality 390 k CHF and MSCI World 298k CHF.

(used FS GBP I Class Acc as CHF version of SICAV only started in 2012 and MSCI World Quality USD as could not find data for the ex CH version. Converted to CHF using oanda fx rates)
Brilliant - just sad I can't green rep you again.
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  #732  
Old 21.06.2021, 21:20
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I said the same about Apple here many years ago when I had the majority of my net worth in Apple. Apple was finished & most people were laughing at me. Easiest double in 18 months!
My son in SF has had most of his 401(k) in Apple for years. Hundreds of thousands of $.

I never had the money to follow him. But then I'm part of the last generation to have a final-salary defined-benefit pension. And to buy property in London in the 1970s.
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  #733  
Old 21.06.2021, 22:15
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Per my calcs 10 year return in CHF to end May 2021:

Fundsmith GBP I class Acc 16.8% pa
MSCI World Quality 14.6% pa
MSCI World 11.5% pa


100k CHF invested in FS would have become 473k CHF. In MSCI World Quality 390 k CHF and MSCI World 298k CHF.

(used FS GBP I Class Acc as CHF version of SICAV only started in 2012 and MSCI World Quality USD as could not find data for the ex CH version. Converted to CHF using oanda fx rates)
For completeness and because I'm on a roll: S&P500 CHF return 15.3% pa and Nasaq 100 21.4% pa over the same period
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  #734  
Old 21.06.2021, 22:25
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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For completeness and because I'm on a roll: S&P500 CHF return 15.3% pa and Nasaq 100 21.4% pa over the same period
You have to remember that 10 years ago the Nasdaq was well below it's March 2000 high of 7188. I think it was around 3300 January 2011 with a bottom in January 2009 around 1748. People only remember the recent past, it's been seriously overvalued before.......
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  #735  
Old 21.06.2021, 23:23
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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You have to remember that 10 years ago the Nasdaq was well below it's March 2000 high of 7188. I think it was around 3300 January 2011 with a bottom in January 2009 around 1748. People only remember the recent past, it's been seriously overvalued before.......
But not really now compared to the broader market. For historical nasdaq performance I think it's important to just ignore the period around 2000 as evidently prices were silly.

Vs March 1995, the NASDAQ is up 24 times. SP500 isn't even up 10 fold.
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Old 22.06.2021, 09:44
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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But not really now compared to the broader market. For historical nasdaq performance I think it's important to just ignore the period around 2000 as evidently prices were silly.

Vs March 1995, the NASDAQ is up 24 times. SP500 isn't even up 10 fold.
Interesting to keep in mind that there is overlap between NASADAQ and quality metrics: 6 of Fundsmith's top 10 holdings are in NASDAQ (Paypal, Microsoft, Idexx, Facebook, Intuit, Stryker). Apple, Alphabet & Nvidia are in NASDAQ and MSCI Quality's top 10

I suppose we could say the survivors of 2000 dot com crash have caused the disruption that was hoped for and are earningexcess returns on capital

In my pov if you invest in any of those indexes you are likely to do well. The difference is Fundsmith and MSCI quality filter out the companies earning lower ROC (eg Amazon) and moonshot companies yet to succeed
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  #737  
Old 22.06.2021, 16:01
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

My daughter has 4½ years left on a liar's loan interest-only mortgage she got 25 years ago from one the big UK banks' building societies since absorbed into the bank. It's fixed to Bank Rate, she is paying 0.39% on a couple of hundred thousand pounds.

She is about to get an inheritance from abroad in that amount. I say she should put it all into FS and see what happens, not pay off the mortgage now.

She is now making so little salary she'd not qualify for a new mortgage; maybe the bank would extend part, maybe not.

Comments?
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  #738  
Old 22.06.2021, 16:06
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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My daughter has 4½ years left on a liar's loan interest-only mortgage she got 25 years ago from one the big UK banks' building societies since absorbed into the bank. It's fixed to Bank Rate, she is paying 0.39% on a couple of hundred thousand pounds.

She is about to get an inheritance from abroad in that amount. I say she should put it all into FS and see what happens, not pay off the mortgage now.

She is now making so little salary she'd not qualify for a new mortgage; maybe the bank would extend part, maybe not.

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On a long term view, thats a very reasonable thing to do, 4 1/2 years is a little short for equity investment. Can she remortgage in 4 1/2 years time, or is the amount too high v earnings?
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Old 22.06.2021, 16:08
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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My daughter has 4½ years left on a liar's loan interest-only mortgage she got 25 years ago from one the big UK banks' building societies since absorbed into the bank. It's fixed to Bank Rate, she is paying 0.39% on a couple of hundred thousand pounds.

She is about to get an inheritance from abroad in that amount. I say she should put it all into FS and see what happens, not pay off the mortgage now.

She is now making so little salary she'd not qualify for a new mortgage; maybe the bank would extend part, maybe not.

Comments?
You would be very unlucky to lose much with FS in that time period given FS outperforms most in poor market years.
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Old 22.06.2021, 16:40
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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On a long term view, thats a very reasonable thing to do, 4 1/2 years is a little short for equity investment. Can she remortgage in 4 1/2 years time, or is the amount too high v earnings?
Would you be in a position to give her a loan in 4.5 years to cover any shortfall?

After 4.5 years it would be highly likely FS would be worth more than the starting value, so it would be a shame to miss out on that probable return
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