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Old 11.12.2020, 15:18
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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One should look first at the sectors and second the companies. Buying opportunities were available so far twice this year and we are waiting for the next move. I agree lots of opportunities this year but one need to wait a bit.
The entire 5 months of March-July, plus end of Sept and end of Oct had good buying opportunities. More or less half of the year.
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Old 11.12.2020, 16:35
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

Yes but they were only 4-5 days that you could buy at 40% discounted prices plus you need to follow hundreds of stocks to be able to find opportunities every second day.
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  #83  
Old 11.12.2020, 17:02
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Yes but they were only 4-5 days that you could buy at 40% discounted prices
not true. and even if it was, 5 days of 40% discount is already a golden opportunity!

there were easily 5 days around march time.

i bought ATKR on 26 october. far from perfect timing. you could have bought months before or days after. now up ~100%.

APA, I bought on 28 october. again a wide range of time you could have bought it at a similar price (or even half that in march). now up ~100%. (i planned to halve my holding in BP and swap to APA but didn't do it and kicking myself for that inaction).

many more other opportunities.

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plus you need to follow hundreds of stocks to be able to find opportunities every second day.
also not true. neither of the two stocks were on my active watch list when I bought them.
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  #84  
Old 11.12.2020, 17:03
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Honestly, the stock market is so volatile right now, there is no shortage of buying opportunities!
Yes but you need to be capable of identifying them.
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Old 11.12.2020, 17:08
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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not true. and even if it was, 5 days of 40% discount is already a golden opportunity.

there were easily 5 days around march time.

i bought ATKR on 26 october. far from perfect timing. you could have bought months before or days after. now up ~100%.

APA, I bought on 28 october. again a wide range of time you could have bought it at a similar price (or even half that in march). now up ~100%. (i planned to halve my holding in BP and swap to APA but didn't do it and kicking myself for that inaction).

many more other opportunities.



also not true. neither of the two stocks were on my active watch list when I bought them.
Never heard of them. Iíll ask again, where do you even begin when searching out these opportunities?
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Old 11.12.2020, 17:31
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Never heard of them. Iíll ask again, where do you even begin when searching out these opportunities?
how long is a piece of string?

why don't you start with an industry you know and understand of have an interest in... if you have no idea, start by looking at companies in the S&P500 or the Nasdaq100
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Old 11.12.2020, 18:39
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Never heard of them. Iíll ask again, where do you even begin when searching out these opportunities?
ah, there are multiple different ways:

1. If you have an area you are interested in, or work in, then you're probably exposed to companies where you find the products compelling, or you see a trend and you can then use that as a trigger to research those companies

2. you can screen for stocks using a parametric search and looking for companies that fit your criteria

i was actually preparing some materials for someone as an introduction to this. if you're interested, pm me and i can send to you as well once it is finished.
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Old 11.12.2020, 18:52
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

Everyone plays in the same market (retail and professional investors) so if you try to invest for yourself without understanding (i) what you are buying, (ii) why you are buying it, and (iii) at what price you will sell at, you are just a sheep being fattened up for the slaughter house.

My advice is do one of the following:

(1) educate yourself on how to value stocks (plenty of books online show how to do it), and devote thousands of hours learning how to read annual reports, understand earnings transcripts, build financial models in excel, listen to company earnings calls, and understand how companies make money. If you have a daily job and a family my guess is there is a less than 1% chance you will go down this path.

(2) Put your money in an ETF, with a monthly direct debit, and forget about it and watch it compound over time.

(3) Identify a manager like Terry Smith who is incredibly good at doing number 1, who spends all day doing number 1, and let them do the work for you.
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  #89  
Old 11.12.2020, 22:16
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

polymath, why try to stockpick yourself?

Most professionals underperform the market even though they have vastly superior resources and information at their disposal.

It's much easier to identify very-long-term trends and hop on that train.
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Old 11.12.2020, 22:55
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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not true. and even if it was, 5 days of 40% discount is already a golden opportunity!

there were easily 5 days around march time.

i bought ATKR on 26 october. far from perfect timing. you could have bought months before or days after. now up ~100%.

APA, I bought on 28 october. again a wide range of time you could have bought it at a similar price (or even half that in march). now up ~100%. (i planned to halve my holding in BP and swap to APA but didn't do it and kicking myself for that inaction).

many more other opportunities.



also not true. neither of the two stocks were on my active watch list when I bought them.
If you buy stocks that you are not following it is is risky. If you want to play it safe you first do your homework and then buy.

As for opportunities it depends on the sectors/stock one follows. I have interests that could be different than your interests.
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Old 11.12.2020, 23:02
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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ah, there are multiple different ways:

1. If you have an area you are interested in, or work in, then you're probably exposed to companies where you find the products compelling, or you see a trend and you can then use that as a trigger to research those companies

2. you can screen for stocks using a parametric search and looking for companies that fit your criteria

i was actually preparing some materials for someone as an introduction to this. if you're interested, pm me and i can send to you as well once it is finished.
I had to google parametric search - sounds sophisticated.

Thanks so much for your offer. PM sent.
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  #92  
Old 11.12.2020, 23:04
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Never heard of them. Iíll ask again, where do you even begin when searching out these opportunities?
I think Yahoo finance has some good articles and latest news. What I did personally is talking to other investors (small or medium doesn't matter- obviously big investors won't talk to a regular guy) as many as I can find and ask which stocks they hold/look at etc. Some get ideas on various internet forums personally I don't buy stock based what I read on the internet but first I get some ideas and then I investigate. Much safer this way.
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Old 11.12.2020, 23:24
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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polymath, why try to stockpick yourself?

Most professionals underperform the market even though they have vastly superior resources and information at their disposal.

It's much easier to identify very-long-term trends and hop on that train.
I like the idea of being a business owner and having a direct stake (albeit a very small one) in a handful of great companies. I realise it's possible to achieve this indirectly and that's why I'm invested in FS/SSON. However, I have an inquiring mind and I'm motivated to really increase my knowledge and understanding. I would then like to act on that and hopefully realise some success.

I'm acutely aware of your comment regarding most professionals underperforming. The statistics are so stark that it honestly scares me. I read A Random Walk Down Wall Street which makes a compelling case for just investing in a passive index ETF but the more I've read the more I've come round to the notion that markets are not strictly efficient and therefore I don't adhere to the strict efficient market hypothesis. There has to be arbitrage opportunities every now and again. Then when you see these big shocks that occur when the whole market goes into a steep decline it's clearly an over reaction and a time to be greedy as Buffett would say.

There's obviously opportunities to profit from short-term bets during these periods of volatility but I see this more as speculative trading rather than investing. For me this is an important distinction as my focus is really on accumulating assets based on their true value that will grow exponentially over time.

I will certainly keep your comment in mind regarding long-term trends and try to be more perceptive of the developments in the world as they are happening. Thanks.
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Old 12.12.2020, 00:03
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

If there's a no deal I wonder if there will be a unique buying opportunity for some of the better ftse stocks like Diageo and Unilever.

In relation to the former: there's no tariff on spirits under WTO.
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Old 12.12.2020, 15:39
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I had to google parametric search - sounds sophisticated.

Thanks so much for your offer. PM sent.
it's not really. you basically just search based on some parameters e.g. maybe you want to find companies with a good return on capital and has a strong balance sheet, or if you don't want financial companies you can exclude those. this way you narrow down the list to those companies that match your criteria.

Last edited by Phil_MCR; 15.12.2020 at 12:22.
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Old 12.12.2020, 17:19
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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it's not really. you basicall just search based on some parameters e.g. maybe you want to find companies with a good return on capital and has a strong balance sheet, or if you don't want financial companies you can exclude those. this way you narrow down the list to those companies that match your criteria.
ok thanks for the clarification. I think I got mixed up with another type of parametric search...

In the design and analysis of algorithms for combinatorial optimization, parametric search is a technique invented by Nimrod Megiddo (1983) for transforming a decision algorithm (does this optimization problem have a solution with quality better than some given threshold?) into an optimization algorithm (find the best solution). It is frequently used for solving optimization problems in computational geometry. (from wikipedia)
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Old 12.12.2020, 19:17
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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it's not really. you basicall just search based on some parameters e.g. maybe you want to find companies with a good return on capital and has a strong balance sheet, or if you don't want financial companies you can exclude those. this way you narrow down the list to those companies that match your criteria.
@polymath:
For a quick one-stop shop for this, one resource you could consult is Joel Greenblatt's https://www.magicformulainvesting.com/.
Not sure about historical performance of it.
But it's (soundly) based on EBIT, ROIC etc. - you can read up more in his book linked on the page above too.
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Old 15.12.2020, 12:06
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

you should look at Disney (DIS). After their investor day it's pretty clear they have a long term strategy of D2C... and they're putting the $$ to back it up. they are investing more than netflix in terms of content.

with parks and theaters impacted by covid they've pivoted very impressively and just looking at their Disney+ subscribers they basically hit their 2024 goal this year and I wouldn't be surprised if they surpass netflix shortly

as a side note Disney has what I referred to earlier... a deep and very protected moat. their IP is amazing and will live on for many years in my opinion. they're also raising their subscription fees and I would expect little to no churn - they have so many levers it's hard to think of a company better positioned with a long term strategy. Iger stepping away is probably their single biggest risk

FS should add this to their portfolio
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Old 15.12.2020, 12:19
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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you should look at Disney (DIS). After their investor day it's pretty clear they have a long term strategy of D2C... and they're putting the $$ to back it up. they are investing more than netflix in terms of content.

with parks and theaters impacted by covid they've pivoted very impressively and just looking at their Disney+ subscribers they basically hit their 2024 goal this year and I wouldn't be surprised if they surpass netflix shortly

as a side note Disney has what I referred to earlier... a deep and very protected moat. their IP is amazing and will live on for many years in my opinion. they're also raising their subscription fees and I would expect little to no churn - they have so many levers it's hard to think of a company better positioned with a long term strategy. Iger stepping away is probably their single biggest risk

FS should add this to their portfolio
I used to own DIS but actually sold it as even with their great IP and brand, I thought the competetive streaming environment was too uncertain and that they'd have to sink a lot of cash into it for a long time before reaching profitability and that their shareholder would balk at this.

Their subscriber numbers blew past all expectations for subscriber growth (obviously helped by covid lockdowns/wfh) and they increased their subs target as well as plan to increase subscription pricing which would help to achieve profitability earlier. If they manage this it would be a fundamental shift in their business model and one that wall street will likely reward.
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Old 15.12.2020, 14:08
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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you should look at Disney (DIS). After their investor day it's pretty clear they have a long term strategy of D2C... and they're putting the $$ to back it up. they are investing more than netflix in terms of content.

with parks and theaters impacted by covid they've pivoted very impressively and just looking at their Disney+ subscribers they basically hit their 2024 goal this year and I wouldn't be surprised if they surpass netflix shortly

as a side note Disney has what I referred to earlier... a deep and very protected moat. their IP is amazing and will live on for many years in my opinion. they're also raising their subscription fees and I would expect little to no churn - they have so many levers it's hard to think of a company better positioned with a long term strategy. Iger stepping away is probably their single biggest risk

FS should add this to their portfolio
70 years from death of creator (copyright) is a long old time period.
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