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  #101  
Old 15.12.2020, 14:21
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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70 years from death of creator (copyright) is a long old time period.
that's my understanding as well, I am not a lawyer but if you take the Star Wars franchise, the copyright is protected to 70 years until after George Lucas passes (hopefully not any time soon)

Mickey is still protected and I'm quite sure Disney will do all they can to keep protecting it... I didn't check but I'm guessing they have 30-40 years to figure that out
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  #102  
Old 15.12.2020, 15:33
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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70 years from death of creator (copyright) is a long old time period.
disney has been the driving force in copyright extensions as they try to extend mickey mouse etc. there are signs that it is coming to an end, but they will have protection for a while even after the initial copyright expires. there are a lot of tricks to be played and they have plenty of lawyers to play the game.
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  #103  
Old 15.12.2020, 17:04
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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disney has been the driving force in copyright extensions as they try to extend mickey mouse etc. there are signs that it is coming to an end, but they will have protection for a while even after the initial copyright expires. there are a lot of tricks to be played and they have plenty of lawyers to play the game.
In the US only as I understand it. Walt didn't die until the 1960s - so in Europe its got another decade to go.

(I actually am a IP lawyer, but "hard" IP rather than "soft" - so I only have a very basic understanding of copyright)
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  #104  
Old 15.12.2020, 20:04
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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you should look at Disney (DIS). After their investor day it's pretty clear they have a long term strategy of D2C... and they're putting the $$ to back it up. they are investing more than netflix in terms of content.

with parks and theaters impacted by covid they've pivoted very impressively and just looking at their Disney+ subscribers they basically hit their 2024 goal this year and I wouldn't be surprised if they surpass netflix shortly

as a side note Disney has what I referred to earlier... a deep and very protected moat. their IP is amazing and will live on for many years in my opinion. they're also raising their subscription fees and I would expect little to no churn - they have so many levers it's hard to think of a company better positioned with a long term strategy. Iger stepping away is probably their single biggest risk

FS should add this to their portfolio
I actually was looking at DIS earlier in the year when it was hovering around $100 because on a very basic assessment I thought it may well be worth a punt.

Besides my general caution towards purchasing single stocks whilst still not really able to evaluate them there were a couple of things that put me off. I was quite sure that the theme parks would be closed and not be any where near full capacity any time soon and I didn't really know how damaging this would be. Secondly, there seemed to be uncertainty around the management (I only vaguely recall reading something in The Economist?). I did have high hopes for the streaming and the share price has certainly popped now.

Fully agree re the IP etc. What will never cease to amaze me is how there are so many people in the world willing to queue to buy the garbage that's sold in the Disney stores!
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  #105  
Old 15.12.2020, 20:45
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I actually was looking at DIS earlier in the year when it was hovering around $100 because on a very basic assessment I thought it may well be worth a punt.

Besides my general caution towards purchasing single stocks whilst still not really able to evaluate them there were a couple of things that put me off. I was quite sure that the theme parks would be closed and not be any where near full capacity any time soon and I didn't really know how damaging this would be. Secondly, there seemed to be uncertainty around the management (I only vaguely recall reading something in The Economist?). I did have high hopes for the streaming and the share price has certainly popped now.

Fully agree re the IP etc. What will never cease to amaze me is how there are so many people in the world willing to queue to buy the garbage that's sold in the Disney stores!
It's a bit like Microsoft - hate the product, love the share!
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  #106  
Old 15.12.2020, 21:05
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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It's a bit like Microsoft - hate the product, love the share!
I like both products, both shares and both leadership teams 😀
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  #107  
Old 15.12.2020, 22:30
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Everyone plays in the same market (retail and professional investors) so if you try to invest for yourself without understanding (i) what you are buying, (ii) why you are buying it, and (iii) at what price you will sell at, you are just a sheep being fattened up for the slaughter house.

My advice is do one of the following:

(1) educate yourself on how to value stocks (plenty of books online show how to do it), and devote thousands of hours learning how to read annual reports, understand earnings transcripts, build financial models in excel, listen to company earnings calls, and understand how companies make money. If you have a daily job and a family my guess is there is a less than 1% chance you will go down this path.

(2) Put your money in an ETF, with a monthly direct debit, and forget about it and watch it compound over time.

(3) Identify a manager like Terry Smith who is incredibly good at doing number 1, who spends all day doing number 1, and let them do the work for you.
(1) Sound advice but today's markets are becoming so uncorrelated with the fundamentals it's ridiculous. Tesla being the perfect example.

(3) I have always wondered what would happen to the funds under his management if say he were to die unexpectedly tomorrow? Massive sellout?
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  #108  
Old 16.12.2020, 00:05
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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(1) Sound advice but today's markets are becoming so uncorrelated with the fundamentals it's ridiculous. Tesla being the perfect example.

(3) I have always wondered what would happen to the funds under his management if say he were to die unexpectedly tomorrow? Massive sellout?
In 2020, the Main fund, which he manages has underperformed the other two, which he doesn't.
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  #109  
Old 16.12.2020, 10:19
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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(3) I have always wondered what would happen to the funds under his management if say he were to die unexpectedly tomorrow? Massive sellout?
I don't think so, Julian Roberts has been working with TS for over 30 years, he knows exactly what to do. If there was a massive sellout it would make no difference due to liquidity of the stocks FS represents about 0.5% of the capitalisation of the portfolio companies.

The market is such that people are buying everything at the moment, it will end in tears, a huge lot of euphoria, common sense will eventually prevail.
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In 2020, the Main fund, which he manages has underperformed the other two, which he doesn't.
Thats exactly what Terry Smith would expect, a little surprising this has not always been the case, the smaller companies are growing at higher rates, over a period of say 40 years they should outperform the main fund by a large factor.
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  #110  
Old 16.12.2020, 10:44
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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The market is such that people are buying everything at the moment, it will end in tears, a huge lot of euphoria, common sense will eventually prevail.
This is precisely whatís making me so hesitant right now. I want to be fully invested but the current climate makes that unpalatable. I cannot see any other choice than to DCA as a compromise.
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  #111  
Old 16.12.2020, 12:42
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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This is precisely whatís making me so hesitant right now. I want to be fully invested but the current climate makes that unpalatable. I cannot see any other choice than to DCA as a compromise.
Fundsmith is very defensive, it's why it's recently underperformed as they don't hold the value crap.

UK Value funds went up on average 30% in November, sounds amazing however they ask still 30-40% below 3 years ago.
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  #112  
Old 16.12.2020, 13:24
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Fundsmith is very defensive, it's why it's recently underperformed as they don't hold the value crap.
.
Exactly. I'd actually be more worried if Fundsmith had performed better. I'm just feeling a bit frustrated that I'm not able to increase my position at a lower cost basis.

Lesson learned for next time though, be it in 2 years or 20 years. I suppose the only problem is you try to catch a falling knife and the cash runs out long before the bottom. I guess that's what the emergency fund is for
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  #113  
Old 16.12.2020, 14:38
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Exactly. I'd actually be more worried if Fundsmith had performed better. I'm just feeling a bit frustrated that I'm not able to increase my position at a lower cost basis.

Lesson learned for next time though, be it in 2 years or 20 years. I suppose the only problem is you try to catch a falling knife and the cash runs out long before the bottom. I guess that's what the emergency fund is for
The other, (more likely in my view), problem would be that the knife rises whilst you are uninvested. Looking at FS and Smithson they are almost a straight line upwards (Corona black swan period in early 2020 excepted). I'd say trying to market time them is probably not a great idea.
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  #114  
Old 16.12.2020, 14:43
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

Time in the market matters more than timing the market.
Start 90% passive, 10% active. If you do good, your active allocation will grow. If not, your risk is limited. It really does take a couple of years before you can learn how to realistically outperform. Most wont.
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  #115  
Old 16.12.2020, 14:50
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Time in the market matters more than timing the market.
Start 90% passive, 10% active. If you do good, your active allocation will grow. If not, your risk is limited. It really does take a couple of years before you can learn how to realistically outperform. Most wont.
There's lots of active stuff out there that's really cheap to own. Scottish Mortgage is 0.36%, with a record of long-term outperformance.

In my short investing career I would have been tens of thousands of CHF poorer had I gone with the index.
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  #116  
Old 16.12.2020, 14:56
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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The other, (more likely in my view), problem would be that the knife rises whilst you are uninvested. Looking at FS and Smithson they are almost a straight line upwards (Corona black swan period in early 2020 excepted). I'd say trying to market time them is probably not a great idea.
I don’t believe this qualifies as a black swan event at all.
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  #117  
Old 16.12.2020, 15:01
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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There's lots of active stuff out there that's really cheap to own. Scottish Mortgage is 0.36%, with a record of long-term outperformance.
The problem is that TSLA makes up a significant portion of SMT. TSLA is currently only profitable because of subsidies - itís a total sham.

I agree 0.36% is cheap but only until the tide goes out.
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  #118  
Old 16.12.2020, 15:12
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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The problem is that TSLA makes up a significant portion of SMT. TSLA is currently only profitable because of subsidies - it’s a total sham.

I agree 0.36% is cheap but only until the tide goes out.
SMT is evidently going to be a rocky ride - but if Tesla went to 0 tomorrow it would still have been an amazing year for SMT.

There's a good chance they own the next Tesla. At the end of the day identifying the companies who are capable of extreme share price growth is their strategy so it would have been more worrying really if they didn't own tesla going into 2020.

Fundsmith is picking companies that have already won, SMT is picking the next winners.

I think its worth being in for the long hawl and riding with the waves.
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  #119  
Old 16.12.2020, 15:20
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

In which case you'd probably do even better with the ARKK etf (+150% ytd). This, however, also has no guarantee of being sustainable.
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  #120  
Old 16.12.2020, 15:26
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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In which case you'd probably do even better with the ARKK etf (+150% ytd). This, however, also has no guarantee of being sustainable.
Sure there are things that have done even better. But the usual reason to buy ETFs (low cost) doesn't really apply here.

ARKK is actively managed and more expensive than SMT right?
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