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  #121  
Old 16.12.2020, 15:29
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

Cost is irrelevant with this kind of performance.

This being said, if you intend to go all-in on a fund such as SMT or ARKK you do not only need stomach and brains, but also balls of steel.
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  #122  
Old 16.12.2020, 15:31
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Cost is irrelevant with this kind of performance.

This being said, if you intend to go all-in on a fund such as SMT or ARKK you do not only need stomach and brains, but also balls of steel.
I've got stomach and balls of steel. Not so sure about the brains
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  #123  
Old 16.12.2020, 16:47
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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SMT is evidently going to be a rocky ride - but if Tesla went to 0 tomorrow it would still have been an amazing year for SMT.

There's a good chance they own the next Tesla. At the end of the day identifying the companies who are capable of extreme share price growth is their strategy so it would have been more worrying really if they didn't own tesla going into 2020.

Fundsmith is picking companies that have already won, SMT is picking the next winners.

I think its worth being in for the long hawl and riding with the waves.
You are right and my comment about the tide going out can only be applicable to TSLA not SMT.

If Iím fully honest with you itís partly the petrol head in me that evokes such disdain for TSLA. The thought that a RWD naturally aspirated V12 mated to a manual transmission may soon be a relic of the past really brings a tear to my eye.
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  #124  
Old 16.12.2020, 16:51
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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You are right and my comment about the tide going out can only be applicable to TSLA not SMT.

If Iím fully honest with you itís partly the petrol head in me that evokes such disdain for TSLA. The thought that a RWD naturally aspirated V12 mated to a manual transmission may soon be a relic of the past really brings a tear to my eye.
SMT also owns Ferrari!
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  #125  
Old 16.12.2020, 17:06
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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SMT also owns Ferrari!
I know but sadly they also start to head in the wrong direction. Itís really very sad. Honestly I wish had been 10 years older and with loads of money in the 90s to enjoy what was the golden era of motoring.
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  #126  
Old 16.12.2020, 17:10
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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SMT is picking the next winners.
Assuming they continue to do this, does that mean that today is the best time to buy SMT? The recent performance is so far removed from the trend line that itís a very difficult prospect to stomach.
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  #127  
Old 17.12.2020, 10:28
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Assuming they continue to do this, does that mean that today is the best time to buy SMT? The recent performance is so far removed from the trend line that itís a very difficult prospect to stomach.
Had you looked at SMT 18 months ago v Fundsmith, you would have said why take the higher risk of SMT for a very similar return. Too many people look at the recent trend as the did with Lindsal Train a couple of years ago. A short period of huge out performance is unlikely to be repeated.
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  #128  
Old 17.12.2020, 10:49
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Had you looked at SMT 18 months ago v Fundsmith, you would have said why take the higher risk of SMT for a very similar return. Too many people look at the recent trend as the did with Lindsal Train a couple of years ago. A short period of huge out performance is unlikely to be repeated.
This helps me get a sense of perspective, thanks. I try to to remember that the stock market is a mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient. Much of the recent outperformance just feels like too much FOMO (of course I may completely wrong).
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  #129  
Old 17.12.2020, 11:33
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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This helps me get a sense of perspective, thanks. I try to to remember that the stock market is a mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient. Much of the recent outperformance just feels like too much FOMO (of course I may completely wrong).
You just need to look at Qualcomm, Broadvision, Metricom or Ortel in 1999 & replace with Tesla.
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  #130  
Old 17.12.2020, 11:51
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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This helps me get a sense of perspective, thanks. I try to to remember that the stock market is a mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient. Much of the recent outperformance just feels like too much FOMO (of course I may completely wrong).
If you are looking for something approaching an opportunity PHI has fallen from almost 800 to c. 680 in a short period. A needed correction.

Although I own a bit I want to increase my exposure and hold for the long term - so Im not too fussed by the fall and will be buying more.
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  #131  
Old 17.12.2020, 11:57
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

Can anyone offer some insight on the premium/discount to NAV when it comes to Investment Trusts and the risk that this represents to investors?
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  #132  
Old 17.12.2020, 12:17
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Can anyone offer some insight on the premium/discount to NAV when it comes to Investment Trusts and the risk that this represents to investors?
Well if you buy a well performing trust due to FOMO at a premium, and then it starts to underperform, not only do you have a poor NAV performance, that premium will probably turn to a discount and make things even worse.

Obviously there is also scope for the vice/versa scenario. I'm hoping that will happen to me as I've invested a small sum in FEET.

The reason I've been hopping in and out of PHI a bit is that the premium was becoming too large for me to stomach. Its much more reasonable right now.
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  #133  
Old 17.12.2020, 12:21
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Well if you buy a well performing trust due to FOMO at a premium, and then it starts to underperform, not only do you have a poor NAV performance, that premium will probably turn to a discount and make things even worse.

Obviously there is also scope for the vice/versa scenario. I'm hoping that will happen to me as I've invested a small sum in FEET.
I will investigate this further because I canít see how some of these premiums could ever be justified. If you look at the Baillie Gifford China Growth Fund there has been a significant divergence from the NAV in the last couple of months - it looks like tulip mania to me.
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  #134  
Old 17.12.2020, 12:26
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I will investigate this further because I can’t see how some of these premiums could ever be justified. If you look at the Baillie Gifford China Growth Fund there has been a significant divergence from the NAV in the last couple of months - it looks like tulip mania to me.
Yup - I wanted to own that but don't. I should have bought it when it was still Witan Asia / Pacific. When it all calms down I will take a position.
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  #135  
Old 17.12.2020, 12:41
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I will investigate this further because I canít see how some of these premiums could ever be justified. If you look at the Baillie Gifford China Growth Fund there has been a significant divergence from the NAV in the last couple of months - it looks like tulip mania to me.
Smithson is normally at a premium, it hit 17% discount in March when a member bought for 900p
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  #136  
Old 17.12.2020, 12:43
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Smithson is normally at a premium, it hit 17% discount in March when a member bought for 900p
Nice return since then!
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  #137  
Old 17.12.2020, 12:46
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Smithson is normally at a premium, it hit 17% discount in March when a member bought for 900p
Yes, I know. A small premium may very well be justified but 20% or 30% seems extreme. Iím a bit confused by the cases where there is a prolonged period of trading at a discount and the potential risk that this poses to investors. This is very different to Smithson where the discount was very short lived due to an overreaction in the market.
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  #138  
Old 17.12.2020, 13:00
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Yes, I know. A small premium may very well be justified but 20% or 30% seems extreme. Iím a bit confused by the cases where there is a prolonged period of trading at a discount and the potential risk that this poses to investors. This is very different to Smithson where the discount was very short lived due to an overreaction in the market.
FEET had been at a discount of over 10% for ages. It's now up to around 6%. Great opportunity if you think performance will be turned around.
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  #139  
Old 17.12.2020, 13:03
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

The impact of a discount/premium whether for a trust or an individual stock depends on the nature of the company. For a high growth company, paying a 30% premium may mean you paid one year of growth. For a low growth value stock, it may take 10 years to recover that overpayment. So you really need to know what you are doing with those companies as it is much less forgiving of mistakes.

Last edited by Phil_MCR; 18.12.2020 at 20:02.
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  #140  
Old 18.12.2020, 13:27
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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If you are looking for something approaching an opportunity PHI has fallen from almost 800 to c. 680 in a short period. A needed correction.

Although I own a bit I want to increase my exposure and hold for the long term - so Im not too fussed by the fall and will be buying more.
Just bought 20k worth at 666(!).

It's fallen 13% in a week despite an increase in NAV of c. 0.5%
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