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  #161  
Old 04.01.2021, 20:13
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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There seems to be nothing easier than tracking rapidly oscillating premiums on this investment trust. Seems to be almost free cash. Maybe sold a bit early this time, but was a really obvious 10% profit (nothing huge - a few thousand CHF) in days.
Well you can be very pleased with a 10% profit over a few days. It may indeed have been obvious and I couldn't say either way as I don't have the knowledge but perhaps a little bit of caution with that way of thinking is warranted as many things appear obvious with hindsight. You don't want to become a victim of outcome bias.
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  #162  
Old 04.01.2021, 20:19
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Well you can be very pleased with a 10% profit over a few days. It may indeed have been obvious and I couldn't say either way as I don't have the knowledge but perhaps a little bit of caution with that way of thinking is warranted as many things appear obvious with hindsight. You don't want to become a victim of outcome bias.
I would never buy a share & exit quickly for just 10%, I prefer to hold out for gains of 500% to 5,000%. Looks like trading to me & the tax consequences of doing that & being a Swiss resident taxpayer are very unpleasant. Far worse than tax situation than in the UK
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  #163  
Old 04.01.2021, 20:33
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I would never buy a share & exit quickly for just 10%, I prefer to hold out for gains of 500% to 5,000%. Looks like trading to me & the tax consequences of doing that & being a Swiss resident taxpayer are very unpleasant. Far worse than tax situation than in the UK
I think I'll stop now.
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  #164  
Old 04.01.2021, 20:45
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Well you can be very pleased with a 10% profit over a few days. It may indeed have been obvious and I couldn't say either way as I don't have the knowledge but perhaps a little bit of caution with that way of thinking is warranted as many things appear obvious with hindsight. You don't want to become a victim of outcome bias.
In my defence the share price has fallen 13% in the week before I bought despite an increase in NAV - that's clearly not a rational move.
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  #165  
Old 04.01.2021, 20:45
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I would never buy a share & exit quickly for just 10%, I prefer to hold out for gains of 500% to 5,000%. Looks like trading to me & the tax consequences of doing that & being a Swiss resident taxpayer are very unpleasant. Far worse than tax situation than in the UK
Exactly. Hence my earlier trader comment. My understanding is the 5 indicators (one being buying and selling within 6 months) are assessed on a case-by-case basis. I think trading on margin and realising large gains (exceeding salary) over short periods are most likely to classify you as a trader.
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  #166  
Old 04.01.2021, 20:47
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I think I'll stop now.
I think you should be fine but it's definitely something to be mindful of. In my opinion we are very fortunate in Switzerland that there is no capital gains tax levied on equities. That's something I don't want to jeopardise.
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  #167  
Old 06.01.2021, 17:07
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

Guys, thanks for this thread - @Polymath, I'm in a similarly struggling situation (too much cash and afraid to go in) --> a good problem to have, though.

I've cashed all previous funds I held in Raiffeisen previously as a "rookie mistake" and will pile up SSON, VGT and Fundsmith as a first step(s) - about 20% of the cash reserves.

Then with the 80% I really am not sure where to stash them until some well-deserved collapse happens (that is not coming since about 2015, though... ).

SMT seems to hold stuff that might have a hard time going upwards (chinese companies like Ali and Tencent will have trouble in the US unless Biden unlocks them, TSLA we know - and NIO, srsly?! That's a vaporware company!) so I'd be a bit worried to buy there.

Did anyone analyze ARKK yet? https://ark-funds.com/arkk
The only big stake they seem to be having is TSLA, the other components are quite unusual for me. This would go against FEET in my evaluation.

As for passive funds, I am also thinking about just having QQQ (NASDAQ100) instead of the SP500 - what are your thoughts? I am convinced that tech brings the world forward so I this would be a more concentrated position than VOO (SP500).

Also think about 3a products - I've realigned one of my 3a accounts to FinPension onto one of the MCSI World Quality trackers that seems a good option for pension money.
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  #168  
Old 06.01.2021, 17:14
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Guys, thanks for this thread - @Polymath, I'm in a similarly struggling situation (too much cash and afraid to go in) --> a good problem to have, though.

I've cashed all previous funds I held in Raiffeisen previously as a "rookie mistake" and will pile up SSON, VGT and Fundsmith as a first step(s) - about 20% of the cash reserves.

Then with the 80% I really am not sure where to stash them until some well-deserved collapse happens (that is not coming since about 2015, though... ).

SMT seems to hold stuff that might have a hard time going upwards (chinese companies like Ali and Tencent will have trouble in the US unless Biden unlocks them, TSLA we know - and NIO, srsly?! That's a vaporware company!) so I'd be a bit worried to buy there.

Did anyone analyze ARKK yet? https://ark-funds.com/arkk
The only big stake they seem to be having is TSLA, the other components are quite unusual for me. This would go against FEET in my evaluation.

Am also thinking just going QQQ (NASDAQ100) instead of the SP500 - what are your thoughts? Am convinced that tech brings the world forward so I this would be a smaller diversification than VOO (SP500).

Also think about 3a products - I've realigned one of my 3a accounts to FinPension onto one of the MCSI Quality trackers that seems a good option for pension money.
i had a look at ark but was too scared by them. they seem to invest in some relatively small cap stocks and own a huge shareholding in some. i worry that the stock prices are driven by huge inflows to the funds due to past performance and heavy marketing and that a reversal of funds flow will lead to a crash. that said, they outperformed me, so what do i know?
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  #169  
Old 06.01.2021, 17:20
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Guys, thanks for this thread - @Polymath, I'm in a similarly struggling situation (too much cash and afraid to go in) --> a good problem to have, though.

I've cashed all previous funds I held in Raiffeisen previously as a "rookie mistake" and will pile up SSON, VGT and Fundsmith as a first step(s) - about 20% of the cash reserves.

Then with the 80% I really am not sure where to stash them until some well-deserved collapse happens (that is not coming since about 2015, though... ).

SMT seems to hold stuff that might have a hard time going upwards (chinese companies like Ali and Tencent will have trouble in the US unless Biden unlocks them, TSLA we know - and NIO, srsly?! That's a vaporware company!) so I'd be a bit worried to buy there.

Did anyone analyze ARKK yet? https://ark-funds.com/arkk
The only big stake they seem to be having is TSLA, the other components are quite unusual for me. This would go against FEET in my evaluation.

As for passive funds, I am also thinking about just having QQQ (NASDAQ100) instead of the SP500 - what are your thoughts? I am convinced that tech brings the world forward so I this would be a more concentrated position than VOO (SP500).

Also think about 3a products - I've realigned one of my 3a accounts to FinPension onto one of the MCSI World Quality trackers that seems a good option for pension money.
Not sure about the Nasdaq?! Look at what would have happened if you invested in 1999.
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  #170  
Old 06.01.2021, 17:25
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Guys, thanks for this thread - @Polymath, I'm in a similarly struggling situation (too much cash and afraid to go in) --> a good problem to have, though.

I've cashed all previous funds I held in Raiffeisen previously as a "rookie mistake" and will pile up SSON, VGT and Fundsmith as a first step(s) - about 20% of the cash reserves.

Then with the 80% I really am not sure where to stash them until some well-deserved collapse happens (that is not coming since about 2015, though... ).

SMT seems to hold stuff that might have a hard time going upwards (chinese companies like Ali and Tencent will have trouble in the US unless Biden unlocks them, TSLA we know - and NIO, srsly?! That's a vaporware company!) so I'd be a bit worried to buy there.

Did anyone analyze ARKK yet? https://ark-funds.com/arkk
The only big stake they seem to be having is TSLA, the other components are quite unusual for me. This would go against FEET in my evaluation.

As for passive funds, I am also thinking about just having QQQ (NASDAQ100) instead of the SP500 - what are your thoughts? I am convinced that tech brings the world forward so I this would be a more concentrated position than VOO (SP500).

Also think about 3a products - I've realigned one of my 3a accounts to FinPension onto one of the MCSI World Quality trackers that seems a good option for pension money.
If you are worried about the downside just plow into FS and SSON. In 2008 when there was a 50% crash in equities FS stocks recovered in just 10 months. I think your upside potential is miles higher than downside with Terry pretty much 100% of the time given how defensive they are.

I've stopped adding money to SMT and EWI (feels like greed and performance chasing now) and will be rotating into Terry.
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  #171  
Old 06.01.2021, 17:31
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Not sure about the Nasdaq?! Look at what would have happened if you invested in 1999.
that's why I said I'm waiting for the crash (that ain't comin').

But I didn't say all-in NASDAQ, I said I'd rather do that instead of the SP500. Just look at the difference of the two since 2002. (about 3x over to NASDAQ).
I might just go VGT instead.
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  #172  
Old 06.01.2021, 17:34
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I would never buy a share & exit quickly for just 10%, I prefer to hold out for gains of 500% to 5,000%. Looks like trading to me & the tax consequences of doing that & being a Swiss resident taxpayer are very unpleasant. Far worse than tax situation than in the UK
Just invested all c. 80K CHF of my wife's pension into SSON. Takes our holding up to 130K. Will be c. 200K CHF by end of 2021.
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  #173  
Old 06.01.2021, 17:35
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

VGT is an alternative to QQQ, without Amazon, Pepsi... more of an IT ETF. Also cheaper, but not as legendary and options friendly as QQQ. I have 20% there and its been fun so far. Still prefer ETFs to AARK or BRK.
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  #174  
Old 06.01.2021, 17:36
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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that's why I said I'm waiting for the crash (that ain't comin').

But I didn't say all-in NASDAQ, I said I'd rather do that instead of the SP500. Just look at the difference of the two since 2002. (about 3x over to NASDAQ).
I might just go VGT instead.
Where were you in March/ April?!

You could be waiting a very long time. Prices may never be as low as they are today. The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is today. That said, I'm a hypocrite and am using a dollar cost averaging approach, for better or worse.
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Old 06.01.2021, 17:39
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Where were you in March/ April?!

You could be waiting a very long time. Prices may never be as low as they are today. The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is today. That said, I'm a hypocrite and am using a dollar cost averaging approach, for better or worse.
Particularly as how you guys are going for the very defensive SSON / FS I really wouldn't be too worried. Unless losing 10 or 20% would be a devastating blow.

FS stocks went down c. 20% vs 50% for the market in 2008. Really you are pretty shielded from horrors. Don't know what you are waiting for. I'd just enter in full now.
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  #176  
Old 06.01.2021, 17:43
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Where were you in March/ April?!
I was buying MSFT for 140 - sadly, not enough. Also sadly, I missed PYPL for 85.

I was made redundant 2 weeks into the lockdown so I was hunting for an EMBA to start and not rushing to catch the bottom in a situation that was a bit uncertain for Q2-Q3.

That was also when I decided to sell property that took until November to cash...

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You could be waiting a very long time. Prices may never be as low as they are today. The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is today. That said, I'm a hypocrite and am using a dollar cost averaging approach, for better or worse.
DCO is not a bad idea to "not miss the train". I just haven't found a vehicle to do this yet - other than monthly manually buying small packages on IB, that is.
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  #177  
Old 06.01.2021, 17:43
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Just invested all c. 80K CHF of my wife's pension into SSON. Takes our holding up to 130K. Will be c. 200K CHF by end of 2021.
are there any pension products where you can buy SSON?
or you just said that figuratively?
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  #178  
Old 06.01.2021, 17:45
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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are there any pension products where you can buy SSON?
or you just said that figuratively?
Its a UK SIPP. I don't think there any pension products here that allow you to do what you want sadly.
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  #179  
Old 06.01.2021, 17:46
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Particularly as how you guys are going for the very defensive SSON / FS I really wouldn't be too worried. Unless losing 10 or 20% would be a devastating blow.

FS stocks went down c. 20% vs 50% for the market in 2008. Really you are pretty shielded from horrors. Don't know what you are waiting for. I'd just enter in full now.
the definition of SSON is not defensive for me (those would be state bonds in your BVG), but yeah I get your point.
I'm into 4 different real estate investments that drive a low, but steady income (5-6%). That's defensive, but it still has a downside.

I still need to convince the missus to not sit on a 6-figure cash pile.
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  #180  
Old 06.01.2021, 17:49
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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the definition of SSON is not defensive for me (those would be state bonds in your BVG), but yeah I get your point.
I'm into 4 different real estate investments that drive a low, but steady income (5-6%). That's defensive, but it still has a downside.

I still need to convince the missus to not sit on a 6-figure cash pile.
Markets crash. Markets recover. Inflation takes your money forever.
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