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  #201  
Old 29.05.2021, 21:24
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Re: Dogecoin

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The value of stocks should be based on what investors are willing to pay for their expectations of future cash flows.

BTC doesn’t have any cash flows. As far as I am aware BTC has no intrinsic value (can’t be used for anything else other than as money). It’s value is based on mutual trust alone. I can’t see any practical reason why people will ditch CHF or USD which are backed by security and stability of central banks in favour of BTC, which is only backed by this mutual trust which in turn is influenced by tweets from an erratic Musk who seems to know nothing about macro economics.

Stocks have bubbles too but they also burst. People buy stocks without evaluating future cash flows in a realistic way.. Many people would say this is (or at least was) the case with Tesla.
I agree with fundamentals and equities being backed by the fiat money, however inflated they are and printed insanely, redistributed madly in form of a stimulus package. There are also stocks that are featured by high volatility.

I merely state the fact that viewing crypto as a fad investment and that they will disappear is not what currently appears to be going on in the crypto space. They become more popular and classified as unique asset class. Adaptation by financial institutions is the fact as well, no matter what those hardcore government control protagonist seem to be claiming, yet they own cryptocurrencies in their private portfolios. That only shows this new technology is going to stay. Of course, there will always be those who are for it and against it.

And the cryptocurrencies price fluctuations do not have so much to do with tweets by Musk and threats from China to shutdown mining operations (again). It’s result of long term inflation fears despite Feds might think it’s only temporary. If you look at Nasdaq valuation how high it went over past few years, the bull run is not gonna go on forever. Huge correction ahead like it happened in the crypto space lately.

Let’s see how digital fiat currencies narrative will play out:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...et-alternative
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Last edited by jacek; 29.05.2021 at 21:46.
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  #202  
Old 30.05.2021, 17:16
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Re: Dogecoin

My point was about Bitcoin. I agree crypto in general will have use. For example Central bank digital currency.

I just don't see why the populations in stable, developed countries would switch in mass from CHF or USD to BTC. Yes there is inflation but in the short term I know what I will be able to buy with next month's salary. In the longer term everyone knows that the value of fiat currency will decrease but by an amount which is more or less predictable and can plan accordingly, especially in comparison to BTC.

For Bitcoin the price is set by the market which as you point out with examples of stocks is fickle and volatile when left on its own. Comparing to volatility of stocks is not relevant, BTC is supposed to be a currency substitute not a stock and therefore stable. Otherwise why not use shares as a currency for transactions instead of BTC?

For USD or CHF there is a central bank standing behind the currency and intervening to minimise speculation.

Not to say money can't be made on BTC, but for me this is trading, not investing.
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  #203  
Old 31.05.2021, 10:37
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Re: Dogecoin

First post started with over 50 cents...twitter was bombed with dogecoin posts at the time.

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  #204  
Old 31.05.2021, 13:40
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Re: Dogecoin

So all Crypto I have a stake in (Dogecoin, Bitcoin, Cardano) are up by between 3-5% today. Is it me that sees BTC leading and dragging up the rest?

I thought Cardano would buck this trend but not right now. BTC has so much influence that only Ethereum (6.90%) can seem to have a different story. You don’t seem to lose on any of these bitches if you’re fast and can sell when you smell a meltdown (I did with BTC), in those terms, they’re an investment to me..

I want my Dogecoin to be the leader like it was a month ago...
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  #205  
Old 31.05.2021, 13:51
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Re: Dogecoin

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So all Crypto I have a stake in (Dogecoin, Bitcoin, Cardano) are up by between 3-5% today. Is it me that sees BTC leading and dragging up the rest?

I thought Cardano would buck this trend but not right now. BTC has so much influence that only Ethereum (6.90%) can seem to have a different story. You don’t seem to lose on any of these bitches if you’re fast and can sell when you smell a meltdown (I did with BTC), in those terms, they’re an investment to me..

I want my Dogecoin to be the leader like it was a month ago...
The whole crypto space seems to be following the same trend either bullish or bearish. I would be glad that the smaller crypto candidates (other than BTC) with potential for real world applications, especially those PoS instead of PoW based, were decoupled from Bitcoin’s fate.
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  #206  
Old 31.05.2021, 20:00
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Re: Dogecoin

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The whole crypto space seems to be following the same trend either bullish or bearish. I would be glad that the smaller crypto candidates (other than BTC) with potential for real world applications, especially those PoS instead of PoW based, were decoupled from Bitcoin’s fate.
Especially as the press write a lot of nonsense and also refer to cryptocurrency in general, not really seeing how different each currency is and how people in the know are the ones that really understand what each ones purpose is or could be.
They’re whipping up a frenzy about China now, why not do more research and focus on the truth?
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  #207  
Old 31.05.2021, 20:39
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Re: Dogecoin

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Especially as the press write a lot of nonsense and also refer to cryptocurrency in general, not really seeing how different each currency is and how people in the know are the ones that really understand what each ones purpose is or could be.
They’re whipping up a frenzy about China now, why not do more research and focus on the truth?
Lot of folks just have no idea what they buy, they just follow the overall trend and always associate cryptocurrencies with Bitcoin. It’s like: “Would you like a cool drink? Yes Coca-Cola please!”. It’s always important to study the coins, if one doesn’t have enough time to grasp the majority of the crypto space let’s say up to the 100th position, at least one needs to make a read-up on the first 10 best candidates.

It seems like the proof of stake catches interest of central banks:
https://www.coindesk.com/ex-head-of-...te-on-ethereum

If one thinks outside of the Bitcoin’s box, then there is more into crypto currencies:
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-s...-b1856822.html
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  #208  
Old 02.06.2021, 15:03
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Re: Dogecoin

Elon’s off again on it’s ‘inevitable financial takeover’ as Dogecoin gains over 30% with news of Coinbase pro professional platform (and others) about to start trading with it.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberth...o-listing/amp/
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  #209  
Old 02.06.2021, 23:44
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Re: Dogecoin

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Bitcoin has never hit anything like the value of a tulip at the peak of the bubble, 10 times salary, way more than a house in Amsterdam.
Th value of the technology is irrelevant, as far as bitcoin is concerned it uses too much power, ultimately is controlled by the Chinese so I would run a mile based on that alone.
Crypto is not just Bitcoin, something that Nocoiners still do not understand. Without trading or mining, we received 5 to 19% per month over the last year and a half, passively. 5% was at the start of the pandemic lockdowns, 19% during the last bull run, average around 9% per month. Have withdrawn monthly until now to > 100% of what was put in. Going forward will be compounding monthly, that's as active as it gets. btw 19% equals way more than I was ever paid as an employee, initial outlay from a Bitcoin purchase in 2015, 1200 Swiss bucks, return so far > € six figures. You can also deposit stables with Blockfi for example and get 10% pa (where we have sent our profits). Did I see someone post something about what to do with money in the bank earlier?
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  #210  
Old 02.06.2021, 23:56
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Re: Dogecoin

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Crypto is not just Bitcoin, something that Nocoiners still do not understand. Without trading or mining, we received 5 to 19% per month over the last year and a half, passively. 5% was at the start of the pandemic lockdowns, 19% during the last bull run, average around 9% per month. Have withdrawn monthly until now to > 100% of what was put in. Going forward will be compounding monthly, that's as active as it gets. btw 19% equals way more than I was ever paid as an employee, initial outlay from a Bitcoin purchase in 2015, 1200 Swiss bucks, return so far > € six figures. You can also deposit stables with Blockfi for example and get 10% pa (where we have sent our profits). Did I see someone post something about what to do with money in the bank earlier?
Presumably, my worst purchase Ethereum Classic (ETC) of 100 coins purchased for less than 1k reached 1300% in the peak of bull run but dropped lately. It is still holding value of 630% gain regardless. What’s not to like about the crypto’s?
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  #211  
Old 03.06.2021, 08:53
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Re: Dogecoin

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Presumably, my worst purchase Ethereum Classic (ETC) of 100 coins purchased for less than 1k reached 1300% in the peak of bull run but dropped lately. It is still holding value of 630% gain regardless. What’s not to like about the crypto’s?
If you are also interested in research of the different coins it’s possible to sell at peak or at least what you reckon is reasonable profit and rebuy on the next dip (as there are nearly always dips and if there aren’t move to another coin). Polkadot looks interesting at the moment and Kava whereby you can use other currencies as collateral and generate self-issued loans! That for me signifies the end of conventional Banking in the near future with every crypto able to cover anything banks can do without ridiculously huge fees and poor service.

This looks pretty ominous, BTCs looming ‘death cross’ could spark 50% fall, are the other rising coins kicking the shite out of BTC?

https://stockhead.com.au/cryptocurre...base-news/?amp


...

Last edited by Hausamsee; 03.06.2021 at 09:12. Reason: Adding News
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  #212  
Old 03.06.2021, 09:31
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Re: Dogecoin

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If you are also interested in research of the different coins it’s possible to sell at peak or at least what you reckon is reasonable profit and rebuy on the next dip (as there are nearly always dips and if there aren’t move to another coin). Polkadot looks interesting at the moment and Kava whereby you can use other currencies as collateral and generate self-issued loans! That for me signifies the end of conventional Banking in the near future with every crypto able to cover anything banks can do without ridiculously huge fees and poor service.

This looks pretty ominous, BTCs looming ‘death cross’ could spark 50% fall, are the other rising coins kicking the shite out of BTC?

https://stockhead.com.au/cryptocurre...base-news/?amp


...
I try to analyze them on daily basis

If stock markets will go up, especially tech stocks, then the coins will go up too.
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Old 03.06.2021, 09:56
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Re: Dogecoin

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If stock markets will go up, especially tech stocks, then the coins will go up too.
....why is that Jacek?

NB: I’m enjoying the crypto thing now, it’s like a slow revolution and I can fully understand why authoritarian countries oppose them...reading now about Venezuela and crypto coin Reserve, and how they would try to circumnavigate inflation by adopting this and others. I have family in Venezuela and anything like this to help them is much appreciated considering the terrible situation of a formerly wealthy country.

https://amp.dw.com/en/venezuelans-tr...ion/a-57219083

..

Last edited by Hausamsee; 03.06.2021 at 12:21. Reason: Editing link
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  #214  
Old 03.06.2021, 10:39
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Re: Dogecoin

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....why is that Jacek?

NB: I’m enjoying the crypto thing now, it’s like a slow revolution and I can fully understand why authoritarian countries oppose them...reading now about Venezuela and crypto coin Reserve, and how they would try to circumnavigate inflation by adopting this and others. I have family in Venezuela and anything like this to help them is much appreciated considering the terrible situation of a formerly wealthy country.

https://amp.dw.com/en/venezuelans-tr...ion/a-57219083
Sweet correlation to investors fear of inflation

Besides the crypto crash, haven’t seen a day that Nasdaq and crypto wouldn’t have the same upward or downward trend.
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Old 03.06.2021, 12:18
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Re: Dogecoin

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Polkadot looks interesting at the moment and Kava whereby you can use other currencies as collateral and generate self-issued loans! That for me signifies the end of conventional Banking in the near future with every crypto able to cover anything banks can do without ridiculously huge fees and poor service.

...
Could you explain why you think this will happen? I am genuinely trying to educate myself and be open minded.

I can see why people in Venezuela would prefer to bypass their banking system.

What about people in stable economies - why would I ditch CHF, swiss banks and SNB, all of which I have some trust in, in favour of a crypto and crypto exchanges / P2P crypto lending?
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Old 03.06.2021, 12:25
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Re: Dogecoin

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....why is that Jacek?

NB: I’m enjoying the crypto thing now, it’s like a slow revolution and I can fully understand why authoritarian countries oppose them...reading now about Venezuela and crypto coin Reserve, and how they would try to circumnavigate inflation by adopting this and others. I have family in Venezuela and anything like this to help them is much appreciated considering the terrible situation of a formerly wealthy country.

https://amp.dw.com/en/venezuelans-tr...ion/a-57219083

..
So, is crypto Julius Bär for the masses?
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  #217  
Old 03.06.2021, 12:29
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Re: Dogecoin

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Sweet correlation to investors fear of inflation

Besides the crypto crash, haven’t seen a day that Nasdaq and crypto wouldn’t have the same upward or downward trend.
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Could you explain why you think this might happen?
As many reasons as there are for different uses for different crypto’s and in general GDP for example, might not be an accurate reflection of a countries wealth or depth of reserves, speeding up transactions, borrowing currency digitally without all the paperwork, bureaucracy and application, etc... ...list is endless..
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Old 03.06.2021, 12:54
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Re: Dogecoin

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As many reasons as there are for different uses for different crypto’s and in general GDP for example, might not be an accurate reflection of a countries wealth or depth of reserves, speeding up transactions, borrowing currency digitally without all the paperwork, bureaucracy and application, etc... ...list is endless..
I don't understand the advantages. I want to borrow either 70,000 CHF or 2 bitcoin.

If i choose CHF I go to the bank who ask me about my financial profile, whether i can pay it back, want some evidence of income and all that then they lend me 70k at 2% interest or whatever. They click "lend" on the computer, the money gets transferred a couple of days later.

I choose to borrow 2 bitcoin. If i use peer to peer mode, im just borrowing it off some chap on the bitcoin network correct ? so if i spend it and then bugger off, what recourse does he have (lets assume i picked someone who is physically in a very distant country) ? If i lend 2 bitcoin from a bitcoin bank or lender, they i assume will ask for my proof of income, whether i can pay it back profile, then if they are happy they click "lend" on the computer and it appears on my blockchain (or in my wallet) 10 minutes later correct ? but i'd still need to do all the application stuff for the bank or they'd just lend it on the hoof and hope for the best ?
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Old 03.06.2021, 13:50
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Re: Dogecoin

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I don't understand the advantages. I want to borrow either 70,000 CHF or 2 bitcoin.

If i choose CHF I go to the bank who ask me about my financial profile, whether i can pay it back, want some evidence of income and all that then they lend me 70k at 2% interest or whatever. They click "lend" on the computer, the money gets transferred a couple of days later.

I choose to borrow 2 bitcoin. If i use peer to peer mode, im just borrowing it off some chap on the bitcoin network correct ? so if i spend it and then bugger off, what recourse does he have (lets assume i picked someone who is physically in a very distant country) ? If i lend 2 bitcoin from a bitcoin bank or lender, they i assume will ask for my proof of income, whether i can pay it back profile, then if they are happy they click "lend" on the computer and it appears on my blockchain (or in my wallet) 10 minutes later correct ? but i'd still need to do all the application stuff for the bank or they'd just lend it on the hoof and hope for the best ?
In addition there is the lender of last resort topic: If I put my savings into UBS, then myself and other savers at UBS know that our deposits are pooled and lent by UBS to people like you at 2%. If there is any kind of panic the SNB will step in. This trust in UBS and SNB creates a kind of virtuous cycle which reduces the probability of a run on the bank ever happening.

If I put my bitcoin (or polkadot?) into a crypto / P2P exchange that lends to you , if you default the exchange may be able to step in up to a point, but if there are mass defaults or a run on the exchange the owners of the exchange can declare bankruptcy and walk away. There is no SNB guaranteeing I will get my money back. Therefore if I am a rational investor I want a higher rate of interest to compensate for the risk and you can't borrow at 2%

i.e. the loan is MORE expensive than a conventional bank

Am I missing something?
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  #220  
Old 03.06.2021, 14:08
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Re: Dogecoin

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I try to analyze them on daily basis

If stock markets will go up, especially tech stocks, then the coins will go up too.
A case in point, if you look at Nasdaq today, it was initially only minus few points earlier in pre-session whereas crypto’s were going up and now as Nasdaq is dropping over hundred points, so all the crypto’s are going down.

Of course, there is no strict rule to it and there are some deviations in correlation, but overall trend for both is somewhat preserved.

Volatility index VIX visibly increases and you can expect overall psychology on the market being negative. If you have clear upper trend in the market, then crypto’s investors will be sharing enthusiasm too. Since January 2021 the tech stocks trade very choppy and most likely we will see this choppiness in crypto’s too. The crash on the 19th of May was a single isolated event that interrupted the cycle, which nobody really expected on that particular day (perhaps except for manipulator Musk ). This is quite clear to me as blockchain attracts mostly tech oriented folks.
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