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Old 09.12.2022, 19:26
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Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

Hi all - tired of being fleeced on safekeeping fees etc..
I use IB to buy USD bonds, it's pretty shit their execution for bonds to be honest, and while my Swiss bank (think CS and UBS) has phenomenal market making for bonds, their prices + safekeeping fees are just not that great.

So here is the question:
Specifically for CHF bonds, who is the cheapest? I am thinking of going with Swissquote at the moment (they even offer you a bottle of Moet if you sign up before Christmas ). Prices look reasonable enough

There are 3 perp Alpiq / Hoclim / Swisslife and CS's coco that I have started accumulating on every pay check and want to keep on adding (minimum size is 5k notional as well, making bond investing actually affordable for simple people).
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  #2  
Old 09.12.2022, 19:49
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

What kinds of rates are you getting for those bonds?
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  #3  
Old 10.12.2022, 13:05
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

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What kinds of rates are you getting for those bonds?
5% yield and above, and Credit-Suisse coco in the twenties - risk/reward is better than the stock for that one! For Holcim it's less than 5% dividend yield on the stock, so same same / more exciting to have the perp. They are all perpetual bonds, but that means resets every few years on rates which is always positive if you don't have much of a view. I would not have bought them if I did not have a mortgage at 1.21% fixed for 10 years against them, but a bit of a no brainer - Alpiq I started buying when it got dumped recently, so some nice capital appreciation / Swiss Life and Holcim that's just for the coupon and yield not betting on any capital appreciation.
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Old 10.12.2022, 22:20
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

I'll check them out. I'm potentially looking at buying bonds if rates go higher (betting on a peak in rates). I already bought coinbase bonds, but that is a very speculative/high risk position. I'm looking for more conservative investments (Treasuries and investment grade bonds).

The thing that held me back from buying treasuries recently was FX risk.
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Old 10.12.2022, 22:23
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

I'd bought Holcim previously for dividends, but sold since due to rising rates making that less attractive.
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Old 10.12.2022, 23:46
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

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I'd bought Holcim previously for dividends, but sold since due to rising rates making that less attractive.
For the US I am buying extremely short term as I don't believe we are out of the woodwork yet and I wouldn't be surprised if we overshoot inflation and we don't stop at 5% like the market expects next year. In Gbp super long dated govies as there I believe risk is overvalued and long term rates will come off. For chf, rates might pathetically go up to 1.5% at some point in time, but with inflation largely under control, the SNB obsessed with its housing market, and the SNB also willing to defend its currency by selling their reserves, I am pretty confident in buying Swiss bonds, but apart from perps the Swiss bond universe is really awful yield wise.
In EUR we are so late, they need to raise biggly. Inflation is insane, and unless the war finishes, which it won't any time soon they are royally screwed. I don't even touch that market, except for some hard asset investments in France.

US tbills are paying you 4% - I am putting most of my money in that, gold and oil in terms of dollar holding. That's aside from my longer dated portfolio which is still heavily skewed equity. Coinbase bond is a smart trade. Definitely some dislocation in the market happening, I just wished interactive broker was not so damn crap at fixed income!
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Old 11.12.2022, 00:42
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

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For the US I am buying extremely short term as I don't believe we are out of the woodwork yet and I wouldn't be surprised if we overshoot inflation and we don't stop at 5% like the market expects next year. In Gbp super long dated govies as there I believe risk is overvalued and long term rates will come off. For chf, rates might pathetically go up to 1.5% at some point in time, but with inflation largely under control, the SNB obsessed with its housing market, and the SNB also willing to defend its currency by selling their reserves, I am pretty confident in buying Swiss bonds, but apart from perps the Swiss bond universe is really awful yield wise.
In EUR we are so late, they need to raise biggly. Inflation is insane, and unless the war finishes, which it won't any time soon they are royally screwed. I don't even touch that market, except for some hard asset investments in France.

US tbills are paying you 4% - I am putting most of my money in that, gold and oil in terms of dollar holding. That's aside from my longer dated portfolio which is still heavily skewed equity. Coinbase bond is a smart trade. Definitely some dislocation in the market happening, I just wished interactive broker was not so damn crap at fixed income!
what platform do you buy tbills with? i never figured out whether you can use treasury direct as a non-resident, but it is also sub-optimal to have a separate platform just for that. i wanted it to invest in i-bonds but dropped it as the hassle and limited investment amount didn't make it worthwhile (% returns would have been great though!).

my guess is that US rates will peak at 5-6% next year and the Fed capitulates as recession takes hold and powell turns out not to be the next incarnation of volcker.

What do you hold in France? The only EUR investment I have is Siltronic AG - I had a standing buy order which luckily got triggered at the 52 week low.

I haven't invested in gold yet - I'm waiting for the right moment - though it always seems that there are better things to invest in. how do you invest in oil? i have only oil majors and explorers, but looking to expand midstream exposure. i sold half oil holdings hoping for a better entry point as recession fears increase, but wary of the dangers of trying to time the market.

i still own mining stocks and am torn between inflation protection on the one hand and impact of recession on the other.
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Old 13.12.2022, 17:12
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

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what platform do you buy tbills with? i never figured out whether you can use treasury direct as a non-resident, but it is also sub-optimal to have a separate platform just for that. i wanted it to invest in i-bonds but dropped it as the hassle and limited investment amount didn't make it worthwhile (% returns would have been great though!).

my guess is that US rates will peak at 5-6% next year and the Fed capitulates as recession takes hold and powell turns out not to be the next incarnation of volcker.

What do you hold in France? The only EUR investment I have is Siltronic AG - I had a standing buy order which luckily got triggered at the 52 week low.

I haven't invested in gold yet - I'm waiting for the right moment - though it always seems that there are better things to invest in. how do you invest in oil? i have only oil majors and explorers, but looking to expand midstream exposure. i sold half oil holdings hoping for a better entry point as recession fears increase, but wary of the dangers of trying to time the market.

i still own mining stocks and am torn between inflation protection on the one hand and impact of recession on the other.
Interactive brokers, they are super cheap for treasuries. For UK government bonds I use Hargreaves Lansdown. For regular bonds I use one of the Swiss major banks. In France stock wise I have Total and I am waiting for it to go back down to buy some more of it. For oil I go long brent futures and just roll them on interactive brokers, margin requirements are pretty low, but you better have your heart well anchored to sustain the daily moves in it!

I think we are going straight for a big nice correction next year, and so do all the banks it seems. MS is particularly bearish with S&P at around 3.2k level. I prefer to just switch slowly into bonds and wait for things to come down. Inflation came a bit weaker again just now, so you might be right in terms of rate topping at 5%, but let's see - I think we are vastly underestimating the persistent inflation in wages and the service sector. It's impossible to hire anyone for anything at the moment - a lot of useless university degrees teaching you how to select your pronouns and no one with actual skills the economy needs... Blackstone is coming out with a PE product for retail clients soon, so I'll buy some of that via my Swiss bank. I am waiting to see how Q1 plays out really, and then will re-assess, but I don't think there is any rush to place cash here... Although who knows, I might be completely wrong and we are to get a monster equity rally, but I highly doubt that )))
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Old 13.12.2022, 17:37
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

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Interactive brokers, they are super cheap for treasuries. For UK government bonds I use Hargreaves Lansdown. For regular bonds I use one of the Swiss major banks. In France stock wise I have Total and I am waiting for it to go back down to buy some more of it. For oil I go long brent futures and just roll them on interactive brokers, margin requirements are pretty low, but you better have your heart well anchored to sustain the daily moves in it!

I think we are going straight for a big nice correction next year, and so do all the banks it seems. MS is particularly bearish with S&P at around 3.2k level. I prefer to just switch slowly into bonds and wait for things to come down. Inflation came a bit weaker again just now, so you might be right in terms of rate topping at 5%, but let's see - I think we are vastly underestimating the persistent inflation in wages and the service sector. It's impossible to hire anyone for anything at the moment - a lot of useless university degrees teaching you how to select your pronouns and no one with actual skills the economy needs... Blackstone is coming out with a PE product for retail clients soon, so I'll buy some of that via my Swiss bank. I am waiting to see how Q1 plays out really, and then will re-assess, but I don't think there is any rush to place cash here... Although who knows, I might be completely wrong and we are to get a monster equity rally, but I highly doubt that )))
with higher energy and de-globalization, i think inflation will be a longer term trend as energy costs feed through - but i am in the camp that believes this is, at least a first order transitory phenomenon even if taking place over a period of months/years. what is unclear to me, is whether higher order effects continue the inflationary effects for longer - which might not be too bad a thing considering everybody was worrying about deflation until a few months ago. i still expect a deflationary blip in the short term due to inventory levels and recession in any case.

however, higher rates isn't going to print more oil and i have doubts whether the Fed really has the stomach to cause and maintain a long recession to dampen down demand to balance the inflationary forces.

i'm half-expecting a monster rally triggered by CPI today and Fed slowdown tomorrow.
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Old 14.12.2022, 15:48
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

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with higher energy and de-globalization, i think inflation will be a longer term trend as energy costs feed through - but i am in the camp that believes this is, at least a first order transitory phenomenon even if taking place over a period of months/years. what is unclear to me, is whether higher order effects continue the inflationary effects for longer - which might not be too bad a thing considering everybody was worrying about deflation until a few months ago. i still expect a deflationary blip in the short term due to inventory levels and recession in any case.

however, higher rates isn't going to print more oil and i have doubts whether the Fed really has the stomach to cause and maintain a long recession to dampen down demand to balance the inflationary forces.

i'm half-expecting a monster rally triggered by CPI today and Fed slowdown tomorrow.
I like to always share my winning trades, I went long NASDAQ futures yesterday with a relatively tight stop loss and made 3.9% in less than a day. I will keep mum about some of my other loss making trades in my portfolio )) All based on this insane market that is just gagging for any piece of news to rally. Tonight is going to be so interesting, but then Powell can control maybe up to a year the rate curve, we tend to forget that the economy supposedly moving markets has a few other factors that control it... If we zoom out, it's a scary world out there. China and India had another one of their skirmish at the border yesterday or two days ago just to add some spice.

I was looking at graphs of inflation from the seventies. Inflation came in 3 waves back then, if you juxtapose today and then, we are still on the first wave. De-globalisation and the need for energy after over a decade of underinvestment is a sticky issue - wholeheartedly agree. That's why i am really just focusing on buying really short term bonds for now, and from time to time I pick something really long term when I see the curve going a bit crazy. We are also going into the coming recession with a debt level that is completely unheard of in the US (and the EU for that matter) - since the Dotcom we have printed ourselves out of every crisis with no real productive investments in infrastructure. The simple example I use all the time: go through any US airport and it's flash back to the fifties.

Tomorrow ECB, BOE, and SNB reporting as well. It's going to be a volatile one in FX as well!
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Old 14.12.2022, 16:36
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

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I like to always share my winning trades, I went long NASDAQ futures yesterday with a relatively tight stop loss and made 3.9% in less than a day. I will keep mum about some of my other loss making trades in my portfolio )) All based on this insane market that is just gagging for any piece of news to rally. Tonight is going to be so interesting, but then Powell can control maybe up to a year the rate curve, we tend to forget that the economy supposedly moving markets has a few other factors that control it... If we zoom out, it's a scary world out there. China and India had another one of their skirmish at the border yesterday or two days ago just to add some spice.

I was looking at graphs of inflation from the seventies. Inflation came in 3 waves back then, if you juxtapose today and then, we are still on the first wave. De-globalisation and the need for energy after over a decade of underinvestment is a sticky issue - wholeheartedly agree. That's why i am really just focusing on buying really short term bonds for now, and from time to time I pick something really long term when I see the curve going a bit crazy. We are also going into the coming recession with a debt level that is completely unheard of in the US (and the EU for that matter) - since the Dotcom we have printed ourselves out of every crisis with no real productive investments in infrastructure. The simple example I use all the time: go through any US airport and it's flash back to the fifties.

Tomorrow ECB, BOE, and SNB reporting as well. It's going to be a volatile one in FX as well!
Yes, it was a very strong move up which broke down by the end of the day. I'm guessing it was a combinaiton of short covering and maybe algorithmic trading.

China/India has been brewing for a while, but seem relatively restrained and I don't see any moves to change the status quo. Both being nuclear powers hopefully keeps a lid on it. China/TW/US is more worrying for me as even today US ratchets up the pressure esp. on the semiconductor front and we saw small steps escalating and challenging the status quo (Pelosi visit, CN response, US semiconductor embargo) which can quickly escalate.

balancing the long term oil supply deficit and the near term probability of recession has me vascillating between buying into oil and holding through versus trying to time the cycle and buying during the recession.

the latter has some appeal, but i feel probably everybody is trying to do the same and it requires getting too many things right in a row to work. it would be great if stocks spike, i sell, rotate into short term bonds, wait for recession reality to hit, buy stocks at the lows. sounds great in theory, but then again, picking 6 winning lottery numbers also sounds easy.
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Old 14.12.2022, 16:39
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

on energy, i feel that the under investment is so bad that there is a risk that oil prices get too high and brings an earlier end to oil than expected as high prices destroy demand and accelerates shift to alternatives.

who even can bring more oil to the market anyway? saudi's are probably at their limit already, russia is now blocked, western companies were burned in the last cycle and ESG/shareholders make it hard for them to invest.
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Old 19.12.2022, 11:43
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

Just reflecting on the market reaction to the Fed press conference. 50bp hike was telegraphed and expected. I thought the hawkish tone was also expected, but the stock market took it badly. However, for the bond market it seemed like a non-event. I was hoping for a hit to the bond market too to enable cheaper purchases of bonds, but if anything, bond prices rose and disregarded the Fed.

I think the bond market is right, and a recession is coming and the Fed has had to correct its mistake of keeping rates too low for too long by doing the opposite and raising rates higher and longer to tip the economy into recession. Perhaps initially they were naive to think they could get a soft landing initially, but reading between the lines, it seems that they are wiling to crash the economy to tame inflation.

Maybe the Fed will raise again in Feb, but perhaps that will be the last one because I think the Fed overestimates both the severity of the recession and the amount of control they have - once the recession starts, they will likely pause/cut, but it will be out of their hands and the recession will run its course.

I thought there might have been a way to trade the pivot and that that there would be a huge relief/pivot rally. And perhaps there will be, but the Fed is so behind the curve, this has to be balanced out against the recession impact.
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Old 10.01.2023, 01:01
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

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Just reflecting on the market reaction to the Fed press conference. 50bp hike was telegraphed and expected. I thought the hawkish tone was also expected, but the stock market took it badly. However, for the bond market it seemed like a non-event. I was hoping for a hit to the bond market too to enable cheaper purchases of bonds, but if anything, bond prices rose and disregarded the Fed.

I think the bond market is right, and a recession is coming and the Fed has had to correct its mistake of keeping rates too low for too long by doing the opposite and raising rates higher and longer to tip the economy into recession. Perhaps initially they were naive to think they could get a soft landing initially, but reading between the lines, it seems that they are wiling to crash the economy to tame inflation.

Maybe the Fed will raise again in Feb, but perhaps that will be the last one because I think the Fed overestimates both the severity of the recession and the amount of control they have - once the recession starts, they will likely pause/cut, but it will be out of their hands and the recession will run its course.

I thought there might have been a way to trade the pivot and that that there would be a huge relief/pivot rally. And perhaps there will be, but the Fed is so behind the curve, this has to be balanced out against the recession impact.
I completely took my eyes of the market for 3 weeks. Felt extremely refreshing! Now just coming back, and essentially back at the same thing. Agree with you on a lot, seems the India/China scuffle was a big nothing burger, for now... Taiwan let's see - the Chinese are starting to really kick ass in their own chip production and have started to go down to 7 nanometers (in a very Chinese way, copying and using different tools than what the west is using to get there), they might not need Taiwan after all - although starving them off vital chips is probably not the wisest geopolitical move at the moment as it could force China's hand to go to Taiwan.

For oil - I am just holding my future and rolling and closing my eyes. Seems the market is ready for the same as last year. Just all eyes on CPI and what the Fed will do - good article on zerohedge just now about language of the Fed this week ahead of Powell speech. I will have my eyes and trades ready on CPI thursday to try and make a quick buck (or lose a quick buck). One thing is clear, focus on short term bonds is still the name of the game here - but I bought some EDF perpetual in dollar recently that looked attractive, and I am going to add more to my Hungarian debt position. There are some cool 2035+ bonds here to start buying, I am going to start drawing a list and wait for a nice spike in the yield curve to add there. Equity just sucks for the time being - I went big long China at the end of last year, I've made something like 3/4% on re-opening, I was expecting much more and timed the trade ahead of the re-opening right - but seems the population is so scared they won't restart consuming and are staying indoors due to the trauma inflicted on them over the past few years...

2023 will hopefully be a nice quiet downmarket with bonds performing. Let's see also what happens to king dollar...
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Old 10.01.2023, 08:27
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

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US tbills are paying you 4% - I am putting most of my money in that
Isn't this meaningful only if you bet on USD/CHF remaining stable? (Interest rate parity et al.)

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I like to always share my winning trades
Doesn't everyone?
Survivorship bias is strong all around.

What would make for a better learning are stories around decisions w.r.t biggest losing bets (although luck plays a huge role in both ends).
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Old 10.01.2023, 10:23
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

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Isn't this meaningful only if you bet on USD/CHF remaining stable? (Interest rate parity et al.)



Doesn't everyone?
Survivorship bias is strong all around.

What would make for a better learning are stories around decisions w.r.t biggest losing bets (although luck plays a huge role in both ends).
I have a few big losing one! Listening to my boss' trading recommendations... For example: buying the VIX in August at around 24% if I recall, in much bigger size than I usually allow myself to trade. Reminder to myself: keep investing the same amount as well as in instrument you are familiar with, I had promised myself in the past never to touch the VIX... I also listened to the tip of a friend on a Biotech stock that was supposed to get approval, and did not, but here I knew the risk so can't blame him - that's lottery ticket territory.
Biggest mistake though, holding my cryptos through the huge up run, and holding them through the huge down run, as well as holding 1/5th of my cryptos in a hot wallet called FTX (am still HODLing fully knowing that it is likely going to keep correcting)

For the CHF you are likely right in terms of direction of FX, but as I earn in CHF I tend to just accumulate with my salary and pension in CHF and do not mess too much with it nor FX it, also have a house asset in CHF. My savings are all GBP, USD, EUR and XAU and I play with this mainly - here my thinking is I want to stay diversified away from CHF as all my earnings are here now so my allocation naturally will grow to CHF with time. Also in USD I have a decent part in oil as well, so you could consider that a currency in a weird way, same as gold (XAU) (or Bitcoin!!)
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Old 10.01.2023, 12:08
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I have a few big losing one! Listening to my boss' trading recommendations...
i try to avoid listening to other people - or at least be selective in who i listen to.

the human brain is too easily persuaded by others, even irrationally so. i had people talk me out of investments with their negativity (even though they knew zero about stocks) or convince me to buy duds with their enthusiasm. i learned that most people don't know what they are talking about and are overly confident in their opinions.

now i try to avoid hearing stock recommenations (esp. on youtube!).
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Old 10.01.2023, 12:44
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I completely took my eyes of the market for 3 weeks. Felt extremely refreshing! Now just coming back, and essentially back at the same thing. Agree with you on a lot, seems the India/China scuffle was a big nothing burger, for now... Taiwan let's see - the Chinese are starting to really kick ass in their own chip production and have started to go down to 7 nanometers (in a very Chinese way, copying and using different tools than what the west is using to get there), they might not need Taiwan after all - although starving them off vital chips is probably not the wisest geopolitical move at the moment as it could force China's hand to go to Taiwan.

For oil - I am just holding my future and rolling and closing my eyes. Seems the market is ready for the same as last year. Just all eyes on CPI and what the Fed will do - good article on zerohedge just now about language of the Fed this week ahead of Powell speech. I will have my eyes and trades ready on CPI thursday to try and make a quick buck (or lose a quick buck). One thing is clear, focus on short term bonds is still the name of the game here - but I bought some EDF perpetual in dollar recently that looked attractive, and I am going to add more to my Hungarian debt position. There are some cool 2035+ bonds here to start buying, I am going to start drawing a list and wait for a nice spike in the yield curve to add there. Equity just sucks for the time being - I went big long China at the end of last year, I've made something like 3/4% on re-opening, I was expecting much more and timed the trade ahead of the re-opening right - but seems the population is so scared they won't restart consuming and are staying indoors due to the trauma inflicted on them over the past few years...

2023 will hopefully be a nice quiet downmarket with bonds performing. Let's see also what happens to king dollar...
it took 11 years or so for china to make the c919 plane and that was with foreign component parts available.

i guess they have been working on SME for a while so they are not starting from zero, but a lot of challenges ahead.

7nm with DUV and multi-patterning is inefficient and expensive. and if DUV equipement is also banned, then even this route has additional hurdles.

for oil, i sold more of my holdings. which is silly of me as pretty much everytime i sold something i was bullish on in the long term to get a better price in the near term it has gone horribly wrong, but i never learn.

markets are strange right now. i don't understand the movements and diverging bond and equity markets. equity rally early in the year - not sure if justified. yield curve still heavily inverted. i'm sticking to bonds with maturity <6 months. maybe there's money to be made in 10Y if yield drops, but i'm also worried about Fed losing control of inflation and reduced value of the dollar which i am heavily exposed to. i wished i'd leaned harder into commodities a couple of years earlier.

i'm hoping a fed pivot gives me an opportunity to sell off growth and give better prices for value stocks.
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Old 23.01.2023, 17:31
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Re: Cheapest for CHF BONDS online broker

sold off most of my oil holdings and bought more bonds, this time reaching out 18 months.

market seems surprisingly positive.
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