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  #81  
Old 12.02.2023, 10:25
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Re: When to invest 150,000

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Personally I have an opinion about the sectors that may outperform (nothing is certain of course but there are some investments that I feel comfortable to allocate some money in) in the future but since I can't offer advise I can only say that the OP needs to find the right sectors to invest in.

There is plenty of material on the public domain to help with selecting these investments (hint: avoid mainstream media). If one is not educated enough that you need to take your time and buy only when you are ready.
Invest in the right sector at 100x p/e is still likely a bad investment... The right sector might be overhyped. It took over 10 years for the tech sector to recover from the dot con (look at charts for Amazon for example). And it only went to the moon thanks to corporate taxes going to zero, interest rates going to zero, and the US money tree going to infinity. I am not arguing that Amazon is bad, it's a great business model with dubious repercussion for the world at large but it's a great money making machine. Point is: you need to understand valuations to do what you said. Etf all the way tracking a major index, indices have a self selection bias that will always dump out dying stocks in their rebalance, it's very powerful compared to you picking a dog going to zero.
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  #82  
Old 12.02.2023, 10:41
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Re: When to invest 150,000

My problem is when should one divest 150K?
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  #83  
Old 12.02.2023, 20:03
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Re: When to invest 150,000

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My problem is when should one divest 150K?
Before you need the money, when it makes the most sense from a tax perspective.
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  #84  
Old 13.02.2023, 11:31
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Re: When to invest 150,000

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Before you need the money, when it makes the most sense from a tax perspective.

Then it might be too late.
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  #85  
Old 20.02.2023, 13:20
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Re: When to invest 150,000

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Invest in the right sector at 100x p/e is still likely a bad investment... The right sector might be overhyped.
probably best to do the opposite, buy when sector is out of favour and undervalued and sell when it becomes in favour.

by way of example, i was buying heavily into energy when everybody said it was dead due to electric cars and now sold. (fwiw, i'm still bullish in the medium term on the sector, but think there's better risk/reward in the near term).
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  #86  
Old 02.03.2023, 08:41
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Re: When to invest 150,000

on the long run, lump sum is the better option. Science/studies show this, as stated by others.
If you want to "save your nerves", you go for the "step-by-step" option.
However, 15 steps is too much/long I reckon, max 12 I would suggest.
Also, keep in mind the trading commission, step-by-step might be more expensive. or you go with an investment app, a digital asset manager, where you pay no trading fees (check all the details on fees!)
Very important: FX-fees (currency exchange, as an example: you have 150k in Swissy and you buy an ETF in USD. If you go with the standard rates from your bank, they'll rip you off, that's for sure.
In terms of overall costs: TER of your ETF should not be more than 0.25%. Asset management fee and custody fee should be lower than 0.5%.
these are recurring costs.
On-off costs such as fx fees shouldn't be more than 0.5%.

Moneyland, an independent price comparison plattform has a great overview
https://www.moneyland.ch/de/robo-adv...hne%20Beratung
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  #87  
Old 02.03.2023, 10:23
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Re: When to invest 150,000

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PS: I am taking into account the 150k OP does not need. If it was a larger portfolio including all life savings going into retirement then all in an equity ETF wouldn't be the brightest thing to do...
I am 53, own my apartment which will be fully paid off in seven years time. I plan on working until at least 67 years of age. At the moment I can live comfortably on my salary and save about 600 per month. I have a public sector job so hope that will keep me safe from redundancy.
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  #88  
Old 02.03.2023, 13:10
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Re: When to invest 150,000

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I am 53, own my apartment which will be fully paid off in seven years time. I plan on working until at least 67 years of age. At the moment I can live comfortably on my salary and save about 600 per month. I have a public sector job so hope that will keep me safe from redundancy.
I would most certainly not plan on working until I was 67, at least not having the choice to stop. It's not that I don't enjoy what I am doing, but as I turn 57 I am very aware that my health is more fragile than it has ever been. On the rare occasion I am sick, I am ill for longer and take more time to recover.

As I said before I would invest in reducing your outgoings even if it doesn't seem to economic sense right now. Look at the tech you can get to live "off grid" for example... sure we're all living in Switzerland; but the less you spend now in real terms, the more you'll have later; even if it is worth a little less.

Putting the money you have saved over the last 53 years into an investment that may "crash" is madness. I read a very interest article the other week about the subject, sorry I cannot give a reference. Within it the article talked about the baby boom generation starting to pull its money out of the markets over the next decade. Read about crypto if you want to know what happens when people start to sell, sell, sell.

They will do so because like you and I they were born in the sixties and they are now retiring, and the last place they want to have their money is the stock market. A market that can and does crash over night, a crash that it can take years to recover from. Not a problem if you're 35 or even 45 maybe, but 55; no.

Look what happened in 2000,2007 and 2015. A correction as they like to call it in the US market is over due, its been around 7 years. Try and figure out how long it would take to recover if i corrected 2 days after you invested. You could be looking at the best part of a decade, just to get your money back; money that would be worth a lot less than it was.

Here is a great chart that illustrates it perfectly.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...st-generation/

Millennials following the baby boomers haven't had such a good time, they may have the better education, but they've had less opportunities, have less assets, and have been earning less. So they won't be buying up those shares.

Last edited by markalex; 02.03.2023 at 13:22.
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  #89  
Old 02.03.2023, 13:36
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Re: When to invest 150,000

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Look at the tech you can get to live "off grid" for example...
What do you mean by this?
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  #90  
Old 02.03.2023, 14:18
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Re: When to invest 150,000

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What do you mean by this?
Search on google for this "battery rechargeable off grid"; you'll find batteries that can by charged using portable solar panels. Sure they may never pay back what it costs you; but they are "free power". So charge them up at weekends and use them all week to charge small devices like phones or tablets or even your laptop.

Sure, the payback to get the '000 of CHF back is like 7 years or something assuming you keep up the habit of charging the battery and finding things to run off it; but that is based on the price of power today.

And well as more cars switch to electricity for example, electricity companies are going to need to upgrade the network. You know how they will finance the job; they will charge more money for providing power. Making this equation look more and more attractive. Its a known fact that the current infrastructure for most countries in the western world cannot provide enough power to support the number of electric cars governments want on the road by 2030 for example, never mind charging stations; there won't enough power for everyone to plug in at home either.
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Old 05.03.2023, 22:58
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Re: When to invest 150,000

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Search on google for this "battery rechargeable off grid"; you'll find batteries that can by charged using portable solar panels. Sure they may never pay back what it costs you; but they are "free power". So charge them up at weekends and use them all week to charge small devices like phones or tablets or even your laptop.

Sure, the payback to get the '000 of CHF back is like 7 years or something assuming you keep up the habit of charging the battery and finding things to run off it; but that is based on the price of power today.

And well as more cars switch to electricity for example, electricity companies are going to need to upgrade the network. You know how they will finance the job; they will charge more money for providing power. Making this equation look more and more attractive. Its a known fact that the current infrastructure for most countries in the western world cannot provide enough power to support the number of electric cars governments want on the road by 2030 for example, never mind charging stations; there won't enough power for everyone to plug in at home either.
"The wealthier tend to save more. Vanguard estimates that the top 20% of boomers in net worth own 96% of the equities owned by the entire baby boomer population. This high net worth group generally does not need to sell stock to meet their short-term spending needs. Also, they tend to accumulate assets for their estates.
Longer expected life spans, resulting in increased cost of living, will create additional demand for equity investments to keep up with inflation."

So not worried about boomers selling... Fixed income rebalance makes sense here given attractiveness of bonds vs stocks at the moment, but that's just a balancing act and temporally.
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  #92  
Old 07.03.2023, 09:39
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Re: When to invest 150,000

Does anyone believe that stocks are likely to become cheaper later this year?
I read online that the inverted yield curve is signalling an upcoming recession.
So far I have put 70,000 of the 150,000 into a Vanguard All World ETF and am wondering whether to invest the remaining 80,000 now or hold off for a few months.
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  #93  
Old 07.03.2023, 10:09
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Re: When to invest 150,000

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Does anyone believe that stocks are likely to become cheaper later this year?
I read online that the inverted yield curve is signalling an upcoming recession.
So far I have put 70,000 of the 150,000 into a Vanguard All World ETF and am wondering whether to invest the remaining 80,000 now or hold off for a few months.
yup. i betting on a recession by end of this year or early next year so am being quite cautious with purchases and holding a portion in short term bonds.
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Old 07.03.2023, 14:21
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Re: When to invest 150,000

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Does anyone believe that stocks are likely to become cheaper later this year?
I read online that the inverted yield curve is signalling an upcoming recession.
So far I have put 70,000 of the 150,000 into a Vanguard All World ETF and am wondering whether to invest the remaining 80,000 now or hold off for a few months.
So avoid building a balanced portfolio and try to time the market.... well if you art throwing caution to the wind, perhaps just toss a coin?

My original comment:

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A well balanced portfolio will in all likelihood deliver the best results in the long run. Press the pause button and take some time to learn the basics of portfolio construction.
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