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  #181  
Old 02.08.2011, 20:49
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

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I am seeing 1.249 at the moment.....wow, free fall!!!!
It's not freefall. If you look at all the other currencies related to the pound then it's a pretty normal day of fluctuation here and there. The fact of the matter is that it's the frank that's skyrocketing against all the other currencies.

This is not good for Switzerland.
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  #182  
Old 02.08.2011, 20:58
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

Fall or rise, matter of persepective?

Normally I notice about a 1% or less change per day but I am not in the business so I will defer to greater wisdom.

I agree that currently it may not be the best thing on the planet for Switzerland but I think it will have some useful after effects.
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  #183  
Old 02.08.2011, 21:11
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

You're quite right, and I would also have to defer to those with better financial acumen. Still, even though this looks good for us who earn franks, I don't think it's going to be a long term benefit, and I also think that a correction has to happen sometime.

To those of you with currency knowledge - is the frank overvalued at the moment?
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  #184  
Old 02.08.2011, 21:49
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

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To those of you with currency knowledge - is the frank overvalued at the moment?
Nah, the other currencies are under-valued
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  #185  
Old 02.08.2011, 21:51
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

Both!
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  #186  
Old 03.08.2011, 00:01
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

What has really surprised me is how far and long this "fluctuation" has gone on for without any change in consumer prices for imported goods.

I don't expect prices on imported goods to be updated daily according to the FX rates, but I find it curious that practically all electronics/clothes/food bought wholesale in EUR/USD are being sold here at the same CHF price as 18 months ago. Currency speculators aren't the only one making a killing at the moment - the accountants at high-street retailers must be beaming.

It'll be interesting to see if failing to adjust the prices starts to damage the economy of the border regions of Switzerland, as the increased purchasing power in Euroland becomes harder to resist. Bern and Luzern might be prepared to take a hit on exports if the profit margins on imports climb, but Basel, Geneva and Schaffhausen might not take kindly to getting hit both on uncompetitive exports and from losing sales from increasing numbers of border hoppers.
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  #187  
Old 03.08.2011, 12:19
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

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market believes eur/chf floor at 1.10 with the SNB obliged to do something at that point. FWIW
Looks like you were on the money. Interest rate cut and money printing beginning...
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business...l?cid=30821664
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  #188  
Old 03.08.2011, 12:31
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

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Looks like you were on the money. Interest rate cut and money printing beginning...
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business...l?cid=30821664
...and already the Franc has fallen 2.1% against the euro and over 1% against the dollar (Wall Street Journal). The Pound is up 2.25% against the Franc too.
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  #189  
Old 03.08.2011, 12:34
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

I knew I should have changed my money yesterday.

Give it a month and it will be back here
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  #190  
Old 03.08.2011, 12:35
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

In trading, retrospect is the best perspective .
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  #191  
Old 03.08.2011, 12:36
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

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In trading, retrospect is the best perspective .
This is why I'm a scientist and not rich....
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  #192  
Old 03.08.2011, 12:41
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

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Looks like you were on the money. Interest rate cut and money printing beginning...
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business...l?cid=30821664
Indeed

In the article they write "the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has reduced official interest rates by 50 basis points to a target range of 0-0.25 per cent"

Not sure what this means; before this cut was announced the 3 month Libor was anyway 0.175% (and has been around that level for a long time!).

After the initial excitement the CHF seems to have stabilised around 1.11 to the euro - be interesting to see if it will climb further.
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  #193  
Old 03.08.2011, 12:44
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

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...and already the Franc has fallen 2.1% against the euro and over 1% against the dollar (Wall Street Journal). The Pound is up 2.25% against the Franc too.
This is the sort of stat. which annoys me. Up 2.25%? Really? It's never been this low (apart from parts of yesterday).

It's like when the resession hit the UK and people shouted "house prices down 2%! We're all going to die!!". Except they'd been rising for around 20% a year for the last few years so they were still over valued.

For people wanting to move CHF to GBP now is still a great time. For people doing it the other way, now is still a bad time.

What worries me is that it all appears so simple to me, but I always mess it up and never get rich! But other people make loads of money believing it all. Damn.
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  #194  
Old 03.08.2011, 12:46
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

Hence the expression " the market always goes to the place that it can
f*%k the most people "
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  #195  
Old 03.08.2011, 12:50
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

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What has really surprised me is how far and long this "fluctuation" has gone on for without any change in consumer prices for imported goods.

I don't expect prices on imported goods to be updated daily according to the FX rates, but I find it curious that practically all electronics/clothes/food bought wholesale in EUR/USD are being sold here at the same CHF price as 18 months ago. Currency speculators aren't the only one making a killing at the moment - the accountants at high-street retailers must be beaming.

It'll be interesting to see if failing to adjust the prices starts to damage the economy of the border regions of Switzerland, as the increased purchasing power in Euroland becomes harder to resist. Bern and Luzern might be prepared to take a hit on exports if the profit margins on imports climb, but Basel, Geneva and Schaffhausen might not take kindly to getting hit both on uncompetitive exports and from losing sales from increasing numbers of border hoppers.
there's too little competition and too many duopolies in switzerland. after all, if there is no other british cheese seller, are you going to reduce prices or pocket the extra profit?

similarly, supermarkets are just pocketing the profit right now. in theory, we could all be more wealthy by having these reduced costs passed onto us and us passing some of this also in the form of reduced wages. but in practice, wages don't fall and business keep super-profits.

if the swiss economy were more competitive, we would have more chance of these price cuts being passed onto us.
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  #196  
Old 03.08.2011, 12:52
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

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This is the sort of stat. which annoys me. Up 2.25%? Really? It's never been this low (apart from parts of yesterday).

It's like when the resession hit the UK and people shouted "house prices down 2%! We're all going to die!!". Except they'd been rising for around 20% a year for the last few years so they were still over valued.

For people wanting to move CHF to GBP now is still a great time. For people doing it the other way, now is still a bad time.

What worries me is that it all appears so simple to me, but I always mess it up and never get rich! But other people make loads of money believing it all. Damn.
Apologies for annoyance caused I agree with you however, so far all the SNB's action have done is to drive the price back to where it was on Monday! I agree that when the news outlets run this sort of thing it should be put in the context of past rates.

I don't think we've seen the last of the effects of this decision, but the rates would have a very long way to go to get back to where they were even a year ago.
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  #197  
Old 03.08.2011, 12:56
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

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This is the sort of stat. which annoys me. Up 2.25%? Really? It's never been this low (apart from parts of yesterday).
Yes. It is just back to where it was early yesterday morning. Up 50% would be much better.
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  #198  
Old 03.08.2011, 17:32
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

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Yes. It is just back to where it was early yesterday morning. Up 50% would be much better.
....and now it's most of the way back to where it started this morning - the initial shock effect has pretty much evaporated.

It looks like it'll take some time for the intervention to take effect, but I imagine the external pressure on the SNB to intervene again isn't go to go away in the meantime.
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  #199  
Old 03.08.2011, 17:33
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

Why do we have two threads discussing thing?
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Old 03.08.2011, 17:35
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Re: Sterling to CHF Exchange Rate

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....and now it's most of the way back to where it started this morning - the initial shock effect has pretty much evaporated.

It looks like it'll take some time for the intervention to take effect, but I imagine the external pressure on the SNB to intervene again isn't go to go away in the meantime.
SNB intervene again?
Well as one of the Swiss papers wrote today "in this market, anything the SNB does is like putting drops of water on a hot stone"
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