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  #261  
Old 25.06.2010, 12:38
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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LOL - if anything a fall ;-)
Rumours have it that austrian banks don't look good in the stress test exercise.
EURCHF projectin potentially to 1.3380... but we're in no man's land at the momt...so who can say how far it will really go.
I wonder how SNB is manging their "position" in euroswisse...they're holding...err... quite a few billions of the unloved eurobucks
(chart courtesy of FT Alphaville)
"we're in no man's land at the mom't" - how true, how frightening

"I wonder how SNB is managing their "position" in euroswisse" Lots of people forecast this issue (even me in my minor way) - it never made sense that they filled the cellars with a declining currency. Hopefully they have a cunning plan

The paper losses on these euros at the end of this quarter will be quite staggering.

I wonder how this sort of huge money printing operation is authorised, practically in secret.
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  #262  
Old 28.06.2010, 11:16
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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LOL - if anything a fall ;-)
Rumours have it that austrian banks don't look good in the stress test exercise.
EURCHF projectin potentially to 1.3380... but we're in no man's land at the momt...so who can say how far it will really go.
I wonder how SNB is manging their "position" in euroswisse...they're holding...err... quite a few billions of the unloved eurobucks
(chart courtesy of FT Alphaville)
About "EURCHF projection potentially to 1.3380"
Currently around 1.343 so projection could be reached soon!
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  #263  
Old 28.06.2010, 11:20
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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About "EURCHF projection potentially to 1.3380"
Currently around 1.343 so projection could be reached soon!
According to a top level UBS analyst…

The New Mark.
The Swiss franc will outperform over the next ten years as investors, concerned about the future of the euro, increasingly hold Switzerland’s currency as a proxy for the old Deutschemark. Like the Bundesbank of old, the Swiss National Bank is now leading one of Europe’s strongest economies and it has accumulated massive foreign exchange reserves over the last year. This has made the SNB the world’s seventh largest central bank reserve manager
...

We shall see, won't we...?

Paul
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  #264  
Old 28.06.2010, 12:04
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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According to a top level UBS analyst…

The New Mark.
The Swiss franc will outperform over the next ten years as investors, concerned about the future of the euro,...
Paul
Though mostly agree with the comments, but the days which anyone could talk about 10 year predictions are gone!
You must be very lucky/knowledgeable to see 2-3 years ahead.
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  #265  
Old 28.06.2010, 18:02
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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Though mostly agree with the comments, but the days which anyone could talk about 10 year predictions are gone!
You must be very lucky/knowledgeable to see 2-3 years ahead.
LOL yeah! The whole "mega trends" thing made me smile. Who would have thought 10 years ago that all this would have happened.
Still the whole concept of the Sfr becoming some sort of über-reference currency could morph into a monster.
Yet you don't want to "fight the tape".... we've been EURCHF hedged since Q3 last year - when I look at the positive contribution of those hedges, the numbers are just absolutely staggering.
And we're yet again wrestling with the hypothesis of closing half of those hedges, since our ideal target has been reached... but what if the worst still has to come (i.e. german exit from the EUR)?

difficult questions for interesting times :-/

Ciao

Paul
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  #266  
Old 28.06.2010, 22:22
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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About "EURCHF projection potentially to 1.3380"
Currently around 1.343 so projection could be reached soon!
now 1.333!
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  #267  
Old 29.06.2010, 07:59
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

SNB's Danthine obviously has foot-in-mouth disease, LOL...
from FT Alphaville

...The Swiss franc hit a fresh record high against the euro on Monday after a Swiss National Bank official added to market sentiment that the central bank had stopped intervening to stem gains in its currency, says the FT. Jean-Pierre Danthine, an SNB board member, said deflationary risks had largely disappeared in Switzerland and Swiss exports had proved to be robust in spite of a strong Swiss franc....

As Harry Belafonte famously sang...
"How Low Can You Go...?"

1.3297 and counting...!

P.

Last edited by Uncle GroOve; 29.06.2010 at 08:00. Reason: 1.3297
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  #268  
Old 29.06.2010, 09:35
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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SNB's Danthine obviously has foot-in-mouth disease, LOL...
from FT Alphaville

...The Swiss franc hit a fresh record high against the euro on Monday after a Swiss National Bank official added to market sentiment that the central bank had stopped intervening to stem gains in its currency, says the FT. Jean-Pierre Danthine, an SNB board member, said deflationary risks had largely disappeared in Switzerland and Swiss exports had proved to be robust in spite of a strong Swiss franc....

As Harry Belafonte famously sang...
"How Low Can You Go...?"

1.3297 and counting...!

P.
Makes the Swiss Franc a one way bet?
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  #269  
Old 29.06.2010, 09:57
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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Makes the Swiss Franc a one way bet?
IMHO there are no "one way" bets - they just capsize more violently when all the participants in that trade decide the game is over...
FWIW I've just been told by a FX trader that there are virtually no stop-loss orders down here... i.e. lack of any potential for further violent downdrafts IMHO (caveat: this is NOT a recommendation to trade / invest, etc...).

Sheesh.... tough call...

Paul
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  #270  
Old 29.06.2010, 10:04
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

wtf was Danthine thinking? a few careless words undid the work that cost the SNB literally billions. it would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

how much pain is the SNB willing to take? i guess they must have lost around 10bn so far this year on their intervention.

while i'm sure the currency speculators would be happy to continue to have this money thrown at them, the SNB must surely draw the line somewhere?

what the SNB is has done is really staggering and imo stupid/reckless.
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  #271  
Old 29.06.2010, 17:41
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

So with everyone now pricing in some sort of nuclear monetary meltdown on either side of the atlantic (which would kick the EU banking system in the gonads), EUR is getting hit (again) vs USD, JPY and EURCHF is now below 1.3200.

Just plain crazy... and it sure looks like a truckful of brown stuff is making its way to the fan :-/

Paul
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  #272  
Old 29.06.2010, 19:47
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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wtf was Danthine thinking? a few careless words undid the work that cost the SNB literally billions. it would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

how much pain is the SNB willing to take? i guess they must have lost around 10bn so far this year on their intervention.

while i'm sure the currency speculators would be happy to continue to have this money thrown at them, the SNB must surely draw the line somewhere?

what the SNB is has done is really staggering and imo stupid/reckless.
Unless he was setting a trap? Unlikely I suppose.....
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  #273  
Old 29.06.2010, 20:15
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

EU$ 1.321 now. I'm moving to Switzerland next week and regret to buying when CHF 1 was 1.58 Brazilian R$, now its 1.67
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  #274  
Old 29.06.2010, 20:48
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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Unless he was setting a trap? Unlikely I suppose.....
I dunno. Setting a trap...unlikely. I just think the SNB isn't in control of it's fate and they know it..

SNB intervention is like firing blanks....when it comes to intervention you can't fight the tide. There is a huge risk aversion trade going on here and global flows out of Euro are just too strong to swallow.

When the SNB tries to intervene it's like the tail trying to wag the dog, or like swimming against the tide... which is why the Euro has continued to weaken despite all their efforts. Let's be honest, SNB intervention has done jack$hit recently.

Now no central bank likes to admit they can't control their currency - but the fact is when you can't cut rates any lower and folks are bidding up your currency because Deutsche Marks aren't available anymore at any price things get hard to handle. So let's all pretend we're in control and say we're backing off because in terms of domestic factors, the trend's our friend.

All that may be true but saying we'll step back in if things change is an empty threat unless sentiment against the Euro turns and the SNB can swim with the tide.

Let's not kid ourselves. The Euro/CHF has nothing to do with the lower deflation risk or health-ish economy in an orbiting satellite state. It has everything to do with a universal risk aversion to the wider Euro planetary system. And not just risk aversion in currencies. All assets are collapsing..equities, commodities and now there's concerns about China. It's all about sentiment and sentiment is what'll have to change to put the Swissie into reverse. Ditto gold. Safe havens are back on the agenda and trading at a premium.

What this all this all adds up to is maybe increased volatility in the Swissie.

Last edited by Nev; 29.06.2010 at 21:14.
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  #275  
Old 29.06.2010, 21:52
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

Does a flight to a safe haven currency ever have the characteristics of a boom? i.e. would it ever be likely to crash or does it always gradually settle back down post-crisis?
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  #276  
Old 30.06.2010, 05:50
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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Does a flight to a safe haven currency ever have the characteristics of a boom? i.e. would it ever be likely to crash or does it always gradually settle back down post-crisis?
Good question. My guess is a sudden currency collapse is unlikely. It's not fast money or currency speculators driving the franc's rise but a flight to safety, especially against the Euro. Even when the Euro get's oversold - and there's no sign we're there yet long term against the franc - I can't see prospects in the euro zone turning dramatically on a dime such that it might put the Franc into a sudden sharp reversal akin to a bubble bursting. So my guess is that when it comes, the reversal out of safe havens will be slow and orderly as folks move gradually back into other currencies as gradually things start to look up and risk aversion declines.

A good currency is a stable currency. Some volatility is to be expected but when directional pressure gets too high, central banks normally step in to manage the pace of the directional move.
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  #277  
Old 30.06.2010, 09:30
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

Guys, have you forgotten that Euro was initially introduced (around 1998-99) as 1.20 USD and now it is just getting back to this!?
So what's th hassle about it?
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  #278  
Old 30.06.2010, 10:14
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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Guys, have you forgotten that Euro was initially introduced (around 1998-99) as 1.20 USD and now it is just getting back to this!?
So what's th hassle about it?
True and after launch the Euro declined to sub-parity levels against the dollar. What is new however is the all time low which the Euro reached against the Swiss franc yesterday. Also the pace of change has been rapid to the point of breathtaking. There ought to be some pretty good deals to be had at local European car dealers given the pace of the decline (over 10% YTD alone).

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  #279  
Old 30.06.2010, 10:26
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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True and after launch the Euro declined to sub-parity levels against the dollar. What is new however is the all time low which the Euro reached against the Swiss franc yesterday. Also the pace of change has been rapid to the point of breathtaking. There ought to be some pretty good deals to be had at local European car dealers given the pace of the decline (over 10% YTD alone).
True; euro was introduced at 1.5CHF - I remember a big party @ a German bank just over the border.
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Old 30.06.2010, 10:49
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

As said before there are over-reactions in the market in both directions.
Huge money is involved, and using machin tools to suddenly stop the loss and sell causes much bigger over sell.
I will personally buy some Euros when the Euro-Phobia is over and curve changes the direction.
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