Predicting currency rates is tricky but it is certainly a better time then ever before, i would change half of what you intended to do now and keep half for in a month or two.

Unfortunately EUR is in big mess, partly due to club-med and partly due some 'vested interests'. In the shortterm EUR-CHF can touch 1.2, and I dont have a view for the longterm (assuming it still exists)

Today it is under 1.27CHF for 1€
Floor must have moved

now 1.255 CHF/€

GBP/CHF is currently 1.474!

W.r.t. the chf the euro is low but compared to the US $ the euro is still (historically) doing very well.
About 5 to 10 years back it used to be $0.80 per euro, now it's $1.30 per euro....

UBS really need to send me my new card reader quickly!

About "the euro is still (historically) doing very well."

I would say the euro is a mess but the $ is a bigger mess.

It was a political aim of the EU to drive up the value of the euro (from $0.80 per euro) which had the expected effect on EU imports/exports.

So at the following rates, GBP, EUR and USD today have all hit all time lows against the CHF:
GBP/CHF - 1.47094
EUR/CHF - 1.25058
USD/CHF - 0.95186

So if the uero is a mess, the $ is a mess, then what is not a mess ? The yuan ? If everything is a mess then maybe we should change our judging

Could be 2011 the year we'd see 1€ = 1 CHF ?

NO...

Swiss Franc is not a mess, luckily for those of us who live here. What else should I judge other currencies against?

Other non mess currencies are Australian, Canadian, NZ dollars, Norwegian Krone &&&&.
I would not describe yuan as a mess; I subscribe to the view it is held at too low a level.

Well the SNB president Philipp Hildebrand has been going around talking about a "horror scenario" of 1 euro = 50 rappen.
Do not know over what time scale.....

already the total parity 1:1 is a nightmare, let alone the 50 rappen .

all imported goods should be cheaper for us here
what would be other consequence: recession in switzerland due to collapse of export industry? Basically swiss authorities have not really a lot of options to avoid the scenario.

very good for swiss retail sector, but bad news for the exports, tourism and salaried employees. in the long run salaries will have to come down to be competitive as only so much efficiencies can be found

More likely that retailers selling imported goods will improve their margins, than passing on (all of) the savings.

Bad news for academic institutes that receive funding from the EU

Ah, the floor of 1€=1.25CHF has been hit today : 1€=1.24999 CHF.

The visible reaction (by anticipation, a few days ago) of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been to warn that the CHF could rise much higher than that.

If I hear between the words, it means that, after all, the SNB may not do anything right now. The rumors of last summer were that the SNB would do "something" if the euro reaches this floor of 1.25 CHF, but if the SNB does not do more than blowing the trumpets of forecast, the rumors would prove to have been incorrect. So, I assume that the experts of the Swiss economy are very busy now, trying to figure out the consequences of an even weaker euro, basically somewhere between 0.5 CHF and 1.5 CHF, so there is much to be busy about for the experts.

/Paul

Not sure what more the SNB could do?

Move to negative interest rates? They have done it before but it is somehow not a popular move with the locals watching their savings evaporating .....
Buy more euro? They already filled the cellars with many billions of euro which only succeeded in delaying the inevitable CHF rise.

Marton