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  #81  
Old 22.01.2009, 15:14
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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As of today, the only way the GBP could recover *relatively* to the Sfr is that some kind of catastrophic process causes a mass exit from the swissie.Paul
It will not. The swissie - as opposed to the pound - is a positive trade balance currency (sofar). And the swissie (as opposed to the pound) is not a proxy for the Euro as far as the building up of sovereign reserves is concerned.

Further to this, if you worry about the level of personal indebtedness in the US (ca. 150% of GDP) in the UK it stands at around 190% of GDP. Food for thought.
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  #82  
Old 22.01.2009, 15:15
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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Every time they appointed a bushy-eyebrowed type as Chancellor of the Exchequer the pound tanked. Current correlation stands at 100% for the statistically inclined.

That ought to answer your question...
Then I'll wait till the tories win the next election. Georgie-boy has distinctly unremarkable eyebrows.
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  #83  
Old 22.01.2009, 20:37
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

This is interesting as I was just about to send some CHF back to the UK. I had seen the rate go to 0.67 (1.49 ish) over Christmas and then the GBP recovered quite a bit. So in the last few days the rate has been hovering around 0.63 (1.59 ish) and I was hoping not to miss the boat.

The UK must have big problems if it is trying to get out of debt by borrowing even more. But there were loads of people saying how fragile Switzerland could be too. Also Switzerland now apparently wants to weaken the CHF.

I hope the pound does keep falling though, that would suit me well. The news articles have been saying that the swissie has fallen against the US dollar in the last week or so - what's that all about? The dollar really crashed last year and now it's doing really well.
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  #84  
Old 23.01.2009, 16:43
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

1GBP = 1.59CHF (lowest since at least before 1985)

In a nutshell, the problem with Sterling is that it's based on Financial services and Housing wealth.

The boom in both of the above had been enormous. Now that both are under grave threat and it's only just the beginning of it's decline, Sterling is the ugliest of all the world's ugly currencies.

There's also very little in terms of savings in both the countries' citizens and government which doesn't help either. It's also no longer a reserve currency like the $ which has benefitted greatly in this downturn.

Furthermore, British government debt could be downgraded to less than the top grade a la Spain which means it'll cost more for Britain to borrow just as she really needs to borrow.

That's not even all of the problems. In other words, the litany of woe is long and options are few which all contributes to Sterling's historic weakness.

People often try to compare UK with the US saying why should the $ be strong vis a vis Sterling? As alluded before, Sterling isn't a reserved currency. Also, UK need to import just about everything and no longer export much while the US is still the largest exporter even if as a % of GDP, it's not as big as it used to be. Northsea oil is also dwindling so that puts the UK in a very tight spot indeed.

What concerns me most is that the social disintegration that is very evident in the north and inner cities of UK will become even more severe unless the country chooses a government other than that which gives every incentive for people to be on the dole while putting every obstacle on the path of those who want to do their best.
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  #85  
Old 23.01.2009, 17:13
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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Northsea oil is also dwindling so that puts the UK in a very tight spot indeed.
Indeed. Start reading this PDF from page 25.

And look at the attached pic of UK oil production. Halved in 9 years.
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  #86  
Old 23.01.2009, 17:33
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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1GBP = 1.59CHF (lowest since at least before 1985)
That'll be the lowest since the beginning of the world.

In 1985 there were about CHF3.50 to the pound.

In the 1950s the Swiss called the CHF20 note a pound as that was what it was worth - a bit like the British used to call the half crown (2/6 or 12.5p today) a 'half dollar' when there were US$4 to the pound. Aye them were the days...
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  #87  
Old 23.01.2009, 20:11
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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1GBP = 1.59CHF (lowest since at least before 1985)
It dipped lower than that just before Christmas. I know because I had to change some £ to CHF then. The rate I got then was 1.487

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GBPC...l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
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  #88  
Old 25.01.2009, 14:18
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

This thread is so depressing, I'm going to lie down in the wardrobe and hibernate.
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  #89  
Old 07.02.2009, 15:01
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

This thread title may soon have to change to 'Hooray, it's back up to 1.76'

It has been gradually creeping up for the last couple of weeks and seems to be hovering around 1.72 at present.

I will let you know in advance if I plan to buy more CHF. That is bound to send it spiralling back down again
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  #90  
Old 07.02.2009, 17:55
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

I still haven't moved any swiss francs into pounds. With all the bailouts in the UK I fail to see how the British economy can get any better. Surely all these wealth transfer schemes are unsustainable?

What annoys me is that the risk takers get all the benefits when times are good, and get bailed out by the prudent when it goes bad.

Peter Mandelson has just said they may pay people to swap their old car for a new one. It just seems so pointless to me.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...6XCiQ&refer=uk
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  #91  
Old 09.02.2009, 11:50
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

Dear All,
The pound has been getting stronger at a pretty consistent rate now for over a week. Can anyone tell me if the SNB actually did go ahead with its statement to intervene in the franc? Does anyone know?

Thank you

Chester
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  #92  
Old 09.02.2009, 13:03
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

I don't think they did. I read somewhere that the SNB would probably only act when the EUR/CHF rate got to 1.4.

I just found this though:
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currenc...978477324.html
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  #93  
Old 09.02.2009, 14:57
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

The SNB's comments were a kind of intervention. And it had the effect they intended.
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Old 09.02.2009, 15:34
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

Thanks Rich and Nev,

I was wondering if they did intervene, how would they do it - would they buy up all the GBP/CHF transactions that were going? Do they have their own traders?

Just curious to know how they would actually do the deed.
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  #95  
Old 09.02.2009, 15:46
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

The SNB threatened it might intervene by buying foreign currencies. Hasn't done that yet.
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  #96  
Old 10.02.2009, 18:10
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

Here we go again:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GBPCHF=X&t=1d
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  #97  
Old 10.02.2009, 18:17
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

My thoughts exactly. A bit of a run since the rates decisions. Now a slap in the face for all those late train jumpers who got into GBP. Are we really going to test those lows put in when nobody was on the desk at end of December? I don't think so, but I certainly am going to make sure I have some powder dry to buy GBP if we do.
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  #98  
Old 10.02.2009, 18:22
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

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The SNB's comments were a kind of intervention. And it had the effect they intended.
Central Banks talking is one thing, but standing against coordinated central bank action is usually a way to lose money. The twist here as I see it is that UK Govt love a weak pound at the moment. So G Brown makes noises about the evils of protectionism, but at the same time they are happy to devalue to make sure British firms have an edge internationally.
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  #99  
Old 09.03.2009, 15:53
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

Sterling getting beaten up again! Back down to 1.60 level
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  #100  
Old 13.03.2009, 05:30
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Re: Gbp/chf..wow 1.76

In case you missed it yesterday, after attempts to talk the franc down failed, the SNB carried through with its verbal threats and is now intervening in FX markets through a 0.25% rate cut, quantitative easing, and foreign currency purchases:

http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...94282820090312

The intervention had an immediate effect strengthening GBP from 1.59 to 1.656.
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