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Old 19.02.2009, 08:12
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Forex trading anyone?

Hello all!

I just wanted to ask if anyone is doing any currency trading here?
I'm doing some small scale EUR/USD and GBP/USD, aswell as gaining courage to trade my native SEK. I wanted to get to know some foundamentals behind the CHF, and the rest of the world for that matter, and discuss how the currencies will turn out under 2009!

/Emil
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Old 19.02.2009, 08:45
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

Good luck. Cause thats all you need.
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Old 19.02.2009, 09:58
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

We had some discussion before in threads like:
http://www.englishforum.ch/finance-b...ow-1-76-a.html
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Old 19.02.2009, 19:49
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

Hello

I've just seen this article which is negative on the swiss franc:

http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/19/swi...erland_20.html

I hope this isn't true!
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Old 20.02.2009, 07:11
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

Own account FX Prop Trading? You are deluding yourself.

Might as well go to Vegas - they have pretty lights and if you lose enough at least they will comp you some drinks.
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Old 23.02.2009, 15:54
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

Hmmm I dont get why people are so negative about forex trading. It's not at all based on luck, and the price does not randomly go up or down. After trading for some time you can hopefully predict where the price is going to go next.
Its not the ideal form of investment for the faint hearted because you can loose a lot if you dont know what you are doing.

but if you know what you are doing, then the real fun begins. I like to trade forex because I get to use my brain, and of course there's a lil bit of adrenaline in the pot aswell :P

I'll give an example of a trade i made recently:

EUR/USD - This pair was down on the 1.2500 support zone where it was in october. So I was thinking: there is no way that the price is going under this level on the first try. Therefore I put in a buy order on 1.2525ish. Now I took profits at 1.2960. I am trading safely with 0.1 lots (worth 1$ per 0.0001 move). Therefore +435$, and this on just a couple of days.

Take care!
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Old 24.02.2009, 19:04
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

I guess the pain point is how do you (very roughly) predict when it is a good moment to buy what.

For instance, I get the feeling that now it is a somewhat good moment to exchange CHF into EUR, but I just can't give sound arguments for it.

Last time I did this operation, I was pretty lucky, since I did it in the end of Octobe, but I have no idea how to make good estimations.
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Old 24.02.2009, 19:13
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

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I guess the pain point is how do you (very roughly) predict when it is a good moment to buy what.

For instance, I get the feeling that now it is a somewhat good moment to exchange CHF into EUR, but I just can't give sound arguments for it.

Last time I did this operation, I was pretty lucky, since I did it in the end of Octobe, but I have no idea how to make good estimations.
It takes a lot of experience and studying to be successful in trading currencies on a daily basis. But if you just wanna tranfer money, then it's a bit easier since you can listen to what the "experts" say, and how the country is doing overall.
I for one, exchanged CHF to SEK now because I think that it will be hard for the SEK to go even lower than it already is. We are prob. getting a rate cut to 0%, and then the currency will be even more worthless, but I feel that we are on the CHF/SEK top now.

As many of you probably know, Switzerland is regarded as a safe haven for money during economic turmoil. This will strenghten the CHF greatly, and it did during the crisis of the fall -08. Maybe the crisis isnīt over yet, and maybe the CHF will be stronger, but I think the top might be reached.
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Old 26.02.2009, 23:40
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

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Hello all!

I just wanted to ask if anyone is doing any currency trading here?
I'm doing some small scale EUR/USD and GBP/USD, aswell as gaining courage to trade my native SEK. I wanted to get to know some foundamentals behind the CHF, and the rest of the world for that matter, and discuss how the currencies will turn out under 2009!

/Emil
As far as fundamentals are concerned just head to imf.org , where you'll be able to find all kind of juicy bits of potentially interesting information.

As far as trading is concerned, just be disciplined with your stop losses and remember to look at the longer term charts as well.
For kicks I use netdania.com - and have been told that Saxo's trading interface is neat... you also can have options accurately priced, apparently.

Good luck

Paul
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Old 16.08.2009, 19:58
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

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Hello all!

I just wanted to ask if anyone is doing any currency trading here?
I'm doing some small scale EUR/USD and GBP/USD, aswell as gaining courage to trade my native SEK. I wanted to get to know some foundamentals behind the CHF, and the rest of the world for that matter, and discuss how the currencies will turn out under 2009!

/Emil
Don't mean to sound negative, extremely few people made it in this field. I personally have spent much time and money learning the trade. I have also attended few expensive courses. All in all, the general ourcome is that you can make money most of the time but few serious loses will wipe you out. This even happens to the pro. The pro does it with company money but we do it with our own pocket. The main reason is the leverage. I would say 98% of my course mate didn't make it and the balance 2% is still in the game and maybe 0.5% has make some money.

However, if you do decide to go ahead, in my humble opinion you should not only attended courses on forex trading, you should also learn forex option - the whole game can get quite complicated and it will eat up most of your spare time.
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Old 16.08.2009, 20:46
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

As oilfieldtrash pointed out, the important point is leverage and whose money it is:
usually if you are not leveraging yourself extensively and playing with your own money, you do not need to be precise in your timing; just follow the news, read the reports and then trade.. if things do not turn up as you intend, you can always wait or if you have changed your mind, cut your losses

in case of other's money (bank's in case you are a professional flow or prop trader) then somebody else will be deciding on your limits in terms of leverage and loss.

I personally find the latter more difficult; since when you are playing with your own funds, you are only accountable to you/your family.

On other point is, one usually tends to take the profits early and losses late e.g., one loss usually wipes out 4-5 successful trades' profits
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Old 16.08.2009, 20:58
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

the Swiss Franc moves the most with Gold, since there is some gold in the vaults even though the psycho central bank sold tonnes of it. All paper currencies eventually go to zero, but you cannot trade fundamentals on a daily weekly or even yearly viewpoint. it is the least volatile. track the US dollar with UUP, and be sure to look at the 15 minute and DAILY hammer candle pattern.
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Old 16.08.2009, 20:59
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

use the percent risk methodology and use a 1% risk tolerance. that means, that should you be stopped out, you lose 1% of the portfolio. make an excel spreadsheet that will calculate this for you. this far outweighs equal weight.
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Old 25.12.2009, 12:05
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

there's a website called babypips which has some lessons on trading.

i've been following gold and chf/gbp for a few years. i made a fair bit of money on gold (bought at 330 ) but always resisted FX due to the risk. after watching several great money making opportunities go by, i took the plunge and opened an FX trading account.

learning the ropes was the hard bit - i made several stupid mistakes such as forgetting to click the currency i wanted to trade (which defaulted to eur/usd or something) which caused me to lose around Ģ700 within the first 5 minutes of trading.

once, i got the hang of it, i did make money, but in the end i stopped, because the leverage is massive and one bad trade can wipe you out. also i was trading gbp/chf which has a massive spread so harder to make money without large movements.
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Old 25.12.2009, 12:35
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

Being Forex one of the, or the most perfect market in the world, the possibility of having an "insight" that chaps like Soros could miss, is minimal. Unless of course, you are friend of a central banker and fully drunk, confesses that he is about to devalue the currency.

The only two things I am quite confident about are:

1) Long term, the US Dollar is crap, really crap.

2) Long term (for the next 10 years or so), the Norwegian Crown is a good bet.


Last edited by flavio; 25.12.2009 at 15:06.
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Old 25.12.2009, 17:48
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

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the Swiss Franc moves the most with Gold, since there is some gold in the vaults even though the psycho central bank sold tonnes of it.
that's some very weird logic... not to mention, devoid of any factual basis

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All paper currencies eventually go to zero
just like eventually we all die... your point being ???
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Old 25.12.2009, 19:48
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

I have never traded forex straightforward, but I have purchased securities, bonds, and other liquid assets based on where I thought the future of currencies based on what I was investing were headed.
Of the securities I have purchased in the last year, even if they had remained unchanged(which they oh so did not ), I would have still gained by atleast 10% on the exchange rate alone.
I would rather trade in tangible assets then solely in numbers. Well, that doesn't make much sense does it?
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Old 25.12.2009, 19:57
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

I prefer writing options in shares. For example yesterday I sold a June 320p 'straddle' in Sainsburys (a put and a call at the same strike) for 44.5p.

At expiry, as long as the ordinary price is above 278 or below 362, I am in profit. Its gambling, but I can wonder how much is my skill and brilliance if I get it right.

In a narrow majority of trades I come out the right side, so I have been lucky for a long time now, I have been doing this for years.

Currencies I only do when the rates seem crazy, for example the Yen against the GBP a couple of years back, or when the CHF was 2.50 to the GBP. Otherwise I stick to options.

Any other optionistas here?
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Old 25.12.2009, 20:15
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

Quote:
I'll give an example of a trade i made recently:
EUR/USD - This pair was down on the 1.2500 support zone where it was in october. So I was thinking: there is no way that the price is going under this level on the first try. Therefore I put in a buy order on 1.2525ish. Now I took profits at 1.2960. I am trading safely with 0.1 lots (worth 1$ per 0.0001 move). Therefore +435$, and this on just a couple of days.
Ha! It's as if I told you: I played roulette the other day and put $5000 on red. And the ball fell on red and I got $5000 more. +$5000, and this in just a couple of minutes

If you told me you found a new arbitrage opportunity then hats off (or if you use a sophisticated MA/momentum method... but even those results cannot be proven in a statistically significant manner), but I doubt it.... (especially since EUR/USD is one of the most efficient markets out there, i.e. prices perfectly (or almost) reflect investors' opinions/needs)
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Old 25.12.2009, 20:40
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Re: Forex trading anyone?

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Ha! It's as if I told you: I played roulette the other day and put $5000 on red. And the ball fell on red and I got $5000 more. +$5000, and this in just a couple of minutes

If you told me you found a new arbitrage opportunity then hats off (or if you use a sophisticated MA/momentum method... but even those results cannot be proven in a statistically significant manner), but I doubt it.... (especially since EUR/USD is one of the most efficient markets out there, i.e. prices perfectly (or almost) reflect investors' opinions/needs)
Warren Buffett once said, "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer" and "If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians."

If technical analysis would work, all those companies making technical analysis software should be making tons of money and not selling the software.

Technical analysis is self-defeating. No serious media house takes into account this method, that's why they don't even mention it. Why? Because its like alchemy, like magic, has no foundations, no theory behind it.
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Last edited by flavio; 25.12.2009 at 21:45.
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