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  #101  
Old 07.03.2008, 16:33
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

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6.5%? Really?
At the time, several banks were offering that on their best savings accounts. You can still get that sort of rate on Sterling but only from dodgy Icelandic banks

However, since (the Sterling value of) my savings have risen about 15% in six months I don't think I've done too badly.

The key will be deciding when to change the Francs to Pounds - I don't realise the sterling gains until I convert from CHF. To best honest I didn't expect to see the CHF close to 0.5 GBP any time soon but it's fast heading that way. I'll probably decide to take my 'profits' when that happens or soon thereafter.
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  #102  
Old 07.03.2008, 19:37
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

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At the time, several banks were offering that on their best savings accounts. You can still get that sort of rate on Sterling but only from dodgy Icelandic banks
...
6.25% for an 1 year bond with Nationwide still on offer.
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  #103  
Old 14.03.2008, 22:24
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

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At the time, several banks were offering that on their best savings accounts. You can still get that sort of rate on Sterling but only from dodgy Icelandic banks

However, since (the Sterling value of) my savings have risen about 15% in six months I don't think I've done too badly.

The key will be deciding when to change the Francs to Pounds - I don't realise the sterling gains until I convert from CHF. To best honest I didn't expect to see the CHF close to 0.5 GBP any time soon but it's fast heading that way. I'll probably decide to take my 'profits' when that happens or soon thereafter.
GBP CHF at 2.015. Incredible! What next?

Time to convert or will it get weaker (who knows?)

(gav, your goal is reached in no time!)
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  #104  
Old 15.03.2008, 13:30
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

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GBP CHF at 2.015. Incredible! What next?

Time to convert or will it get weaker (who knows?)

(gav, your goal is reached in no time!)
Yep - it's 1CHF=0.496GBP the moment. I never expected it to go so far, so quickly.

I'm now looking at setting up a currency conversion account with some FX traders and starting to funnel some of my savings back to GBP and into NS&I bonds. I'm quite worried about the stability of various banks, particularly UBS so for safety you can't beat government bonds. I'm already loading up this UK tax year's ISA into NS&I and will be opening another one for next year in April and maxing it too just to put the money somewhere safe.

Maybe I'll put a percentage into gold too although that has surged massively already so how much further can it go? Having said that, the dollar has depreciated at the same time so maybe it hasn't surged that much in CHF terms and has a lot further to go? Will have to plot gold prices in CHF over the last couple of years and have a think - anyone know an easy way to do this without getting out the calculator and graph paper? ie. A link to gold prices in CHF.
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  #105  
Old 15.03.2008, 13:37
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

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A link to gold prices in CHF.
I was looking for just that the other day. Try:

http://www.goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
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  #106  
Old 15.03.2008, 14:05
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

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Maybe I'll put a percentage into gold too although that has surged massively already so how much further can it go?
That is always a good question to ask Gav. If I knew the answer I'd be sitting aboard an expensive boat
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  #107  
Old 15.03.2008, 23:13
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

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GBP CHF at 2.015. Incredible! What next?

Time to convert or will it get weaker (who knows?)

(gav, your goal is reached in no time!)
Enjoy the party while you can. The Swiss economy is relatively small and not immune to global slowdown. Fed expected to cut rates again next week. The CHF can appreciate only so much before the SNB cuts rates either to control knock on slowdown in CH economy or to control appreciation in CHF.
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  #108  
Old 18.03.2008, 13:08
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

Sfr 1.97 = £1 today. Hope that holds till the end of the month.

DC
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  #109  
Old 21.03.2008, 01:53
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

Anyone have any thoughts on what way the £ / CHF are going?

A drop from to 2.45 to 2.00 has been painful, as I have funds in sterling that need to be transfered into CHF.

Your opinions will be appreciated.
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  #110  
Old 21.03.2008, 02:56
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

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Anyone have any thoughts on what way the £ / CHF are going?

A drop from to 2.45 to 2.00 has been painful, as I have funds in sterling that need to be transfered into CHF.

Your opinions will be appreciated.

I am loving it I have got only £30 in my Lloyd's account. I transfered the remaining *9.9 million 4 years ago


* lot less than 9.9million
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  #111  
Old 21.03.2008, 10:04
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

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Anyone have any thoughts on what way the £ / CHF are going?

A drop from to 2.45 to 2.00 has been painful, as I have funds in sterling that need to be transfered into CHF.

Your opinions will be appreciated.

WEEKLY GBP-CHF CHART

Welcome to the wonderful world of Foreign Exchange...

Remember that the higher interest you should have received back in the UK should compensate part (admittedly very little) of your pain...


The outlook for the swissie depends from a multitude of conflicting factors:
1) interest rates - low, so they *should* penalise the Sfr
2) safe haven - Switz. is considered to be "safe" and thereby the currency is traded at a premium
3) "funding" currency - speculators who employ leverage have Sfr denominated debt (less expensive to fund) and purchase higher yielding assets. When the risk appetite is up, the Sfr tend to weaken somewhat (Sfr is sold "short" vs. the higher yielder), which also means that in case of increased risk aversion the opposite happens
4) liquidity of the Sfr - Switzerland is a small country, therefore the pool of available Sfr for speculative purposes is small; speculation therefore may cause some pretty wild swings in the currency.

My personal take is that you might see a bounce back to the 2.00 - 2.10 barrier; anything better than that would imply some kind of major negative event here in Switzerland (I can think of a bunch of reasons, best left unsaid for now... someone might make a blockbuster out of my fantasies, LOL!)

Good luck,

Paul
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  #112  
Old 21.03.2008, 10:14
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

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Anyone have any thoughts on what way the £ / CHF are going?

A drop from to 2.45 to 2.00 has been painful, as I have funds in sterling that need to be transfered into CHF.

Your opinions will be appreciated.
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Several weeks ago UBS called the bottom at 2.17. Then the credit crisis got worse. The credit crisis is what's driving this and where that goes next is difficult to read. Further cuts in UK rates are already priced into the FX rates but the risk is to the downside with the pound because the risk is to the downside that the credit crisis gets worse. The UK and the ECB are loathe to cut rates further because of inflationary pressures but the UK and the US have shown priority goes to stabilizing the markets so if things turn nasty again expect some more rate cuts. Eventually the ECB will have to follow suit and CH will follow the ECB. Either which way Sterling was overvalued at 2.45 so it was nice whilst it lasted. I don't think you'll see that again for a long time. The way I look at is say if I got 2.45 for two years and have to live with 2.00 for two years my average is 2.23. I know that's oversimplifying things and only works if your outgoings have been consistent bit you get my drift. Comparing where you were at the top with where you are at the bottom will not help you sleep at night. But yes...things seem an awful lot more expensive now. That's the price you pay for holding sterling to get yield pick up over swiss francs. And of course for anyone who has a major CHF outgoing coming up then the average argument doesn't work.
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  #113  
Old 21.03.2008, 10:29
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

My personal opinion is that the CHF has risen to current levels on the back of the current crisis in the finance system so if the crisis gets worse, it could rise further. If things ease off a bit then it'll slope back.

I've just changed about 1/3 of my CHFs back to GBP and I'll probably do another 1/3 within the week upon reflection. I'll leave the remaining 1/3 in CHF as a hedge in case things go really pear-shaped in the UK economy. The Swiss Franc is a bit like gold as it's seen as a safe haven in times of trouble.

I can't really complain as I've 'made' over 20% tax-free on my savings in six months (40% APR!) by holding them in Swiss Francs until now. The best I could have got in the UK would have been about 6.9% APR subject to tax.

I would really be kicking myself if I had converted back in August 07 when I first started thinking about the transfer.
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  #114  
Old 21.03.2008, 10:49
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

Some commentators anticipate the sub-prime and recessionary malaise spreading from the US to UK. Could depress GBP further.
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  #115  
Old 21.03.2008, 11:14
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

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My personal opinion is that the CHF has risen to current levels on the back of the current crisis in the finance system so if the crisis gets worse, it could rise further. If things ease off a bit then it'll slope back.
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Some commentators anticipate the sub-prime and recessionary malaise spreading from the US to UK. Could depress GBP further.
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The credit crisis is what's driving this and where that goes next is difficult to read.. but the risk is to the downside with the pound because the risk is to the downside that the credit crisis gets worse.
Sounds like we're all on the same page in terms of direction. Uncle GroOve's range of 2.00 to 2.10 doesn't sound unreasonable unless things take a nasty turn for the worse in credit markets. Longer term 2.15 should not be unrealistic as things improve. Save your sympathy for the folks on a sterling/dollar salary or pension with no CHF savings and who were just managing to get by at 2.45.
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  #116  
Old 21.03.2008, 15:52
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

Thanks to you all for your response.

(Mmmm Rythmical Remedy?)

Yes it doesn't look good at the moment for £.

I guess I will have to bite the bullet and suffer the consequences as I have have no choice, the funds have to be in CHF in the next couple of weeks.

Damn it hurts!
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  #117  
Old 21.03.2008, 17:10
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

transferred my chf back to UK yesterday at 1.98. what a deal. also got 6.5%gross in Isle of Man offshore. there's no point keeping keeping chf here at the moment.
just do it
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  #118  
Old 24.03.2008, 12:33
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

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transferred my chf back to UK yesterday at 1.98. what a deal. also got 6.5%gross in Isle of Man offshore. there's no point keeping keeping chf here at the moment.
just do it
It's not just about interest rates though. The US and the UK have been inflating their money supply like crazy since the dotcom bubble burst, to stimulate growth.

They've also been using carefully selected figures to gauge inflation which IMO don't reflect the real inflation in the system.

Now it looks like the Federal Reserve and Bank of England may be about to effectively monetize the bad loans of their commercial banking sectors. This will be massively inflationary (though again, don't expect it to be reflected in the government-issued figures).


As a result, the Dollar and Pound have been sliding against other currencies. Think of the value of a particular unit of currency as being the overall strength of the economy divided by the total number of units of currency in circulation.

In both the cases of the US and the UK; Irrespective of financial strength (which is dropping anyway making things worse) the number of units has been rising massively - reducing the value of the unit of currency considerably.

That's why the CHF could stay higher than it has been over the last few years even if Swiss interest rates are cut. Plus in times of trouble there's increased demand for the Franc anyway as a safe currency and I don't think we're out of the woods on the current crisis yet.


Anyone interested in this stuff should read the book 'Crash Proof' by Peter Schiff. He's extremely pessimistic about the prospects for the US economy and much of what he says also applies to a greater or lesser extent to the UK.


Of course, if you're living in the US or UK now and have a specific need or use for your currency then now is an excellent time to convert it. For longer term savings might be a good idea to consider keeping it in Switzerland. Assuming the big Swiss banks don't end up on the rocks of course which isn't impossible.
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  #119  
Old 24.03.2008, 13:11
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

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It's not just about interest rates though. The US and the UK have been inflating their money supply like crazy since the dotcom bubble burst, to stimulate growth.

They've also been using carefully selected figures to gauge inflation which IMO don't reflect the real inflation in the system.
I just happened to discuss this with a friend of mine who is a financial journalist in London (I'm hopeless in these things, thanks for the currency explanation). The cause was a piece about how Gordon Brown is hiding inflation, see http://tinyurl.com/ynkb6z.

What I found particularly interesting is that Barclays Bank was apparently so fed up with the unreliability of the figures (you can't base a planning on figures that change with the weather) that they made their own inflation index which is in principle indicating what the government index should represent, it's called The Barclays Capital Essentials Inflation Index.

The piece in the link details just how large the gap between the government spin and the real world is, and it's shocking.
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  #120  
Old 24.03.2008, 13:42
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Re: Weak Swiss Franc

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transferred my chf back to UK yesterday at 1.98. what a deal. also got 6.5%gross in Isle of Man offshore. there's no point keeping keeping chf here at the moment.
just do it
also... interest is taxed - captital gains in Switzerland are not (generally)...
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