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Old 19.10.2010, 11:02
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Re: Gold Buying

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Interesting.

To make it simple, gold is high because lately there has been very few safe bets on investments.
As soon as the other well known investments become promising, the interst on gold and similar things will fade.
Exactly!

But lets have some ideas of safe investments then because I cannot think of any. Most that one would look at are in US Dollars and that is the problem as that is likely to continue to fall because:
(1) Only solution to slow down imports from China
(2) More economic bad news to come out of that place
(3) Most likely QE2

So once you eliminate investing in anything in US Dollars; what is there left.
Possibly shares in food producers (we all need to eat) and in CHF - Nestle ??
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  #202  
Old 19.10.2010, 11:16
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Re: Gold Buying

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Exactly!

But lets have some ideas of safe investments then because I cannot think of any. Most that one would look at are in US Dollars and that is the problem as that is likely to continue to fall because:
(1) Only solution to slow down imports from China
(2) More economic bad news to come out of that place
(3) Most likely QE2

So once you eliminate investing in anything in US Dollars; what is there left.
Possibly shares in food producers (we all need to eat) and in CHF - Nestle ??
The central bankers are walking a difficult tightrope, using inflationary measures like QE to scare people out of cash and get spending it in the real economy. This causes gold to go up; I reckon that there will be a final gold spike that the central bankers must react to, or let their currencies fail. The only way they can make paper money attractive once again is to raise interest rates to the level that paper money gives a real rate of return (e.g. 8% minimum). If it plays out like this, it would be time to switch into cash bonds!

I'm not sure that just because something is traded in USD that it's a bad investment. People will buy oil with other currencies*. Energy will always be demanded, things like oil, uranium and renewable energy will always be needed.

* e.g. if it ever came widespread in use, the islamic gold dinar could be demanded in return for oil - this would be a confiscation trigger for western governments, because otherwise they couldn't pay for oil, and it's getting difficult/expensive to invade more countries for their oil.
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  #203  
Old 19.10.2010, 11:19
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Re: Gold Buying

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Exactly!

But lets have some ideas of safe investments then because I cannot think of any. Most that one would look at are in US Dollars and that is the problem as that is likely to continue to fall because:
(1) Only solution to slow down imports from China
(2) More economic bad news to come out of that place
(3) Most likely QE2

So once you eliminate investing in anything in US Dollars; what is there left.
Possibly shares in food producers (we all need to eat) and in CHF - Nestle ??

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11551993

QE2 was announced last week!
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  #204  
Old 19.10.2010, 11:22
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Re: Gold Buying

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11551993

QE2 was announced last week!
Thanx for clarification, I was wondering what Queen Elizabet the second has anything to do with this matter
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  #205  
Old 19.10.2010, 11:24
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Re: Gold Buying

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The central bankers are walking a difficult tightrope, using inflationary measures like QE to scare people out of cash and get spending it in the real economy. This causes gold to go up; I reckon that there will be a final gold spike that the central bankers must react to, or let their currencies fail. The only way they can make paper money attractive once again is to raise interest rates to the level that paper money gives a real rate of return (e.g. 8% minimum). If it plays out like this, it would be time to switch into cash bonds!
I doubt very much that interest rates will go up in the USA and the UK.
This being because:
(1) The governments would have to pay more interest on their debts.
(2) People would not be able to pay their mortgages/loans and those that could would have less consumable income and this would slow the economy down even further.
(3) The banks would have to lower their profit on interest (take UK at the moment - bank base rate 0.5% and mortage rate 4.2%. They actually need this huge margin to cover the bad debts they have and to increase their capital and the government realise this and that is why the government says nothing as well as the fact that the government is majority stake holder in these banks and is at risk with these banks).
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  #206  
Old 19.10.2010, 12:03
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Re: Gold Buying

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I doubt very much that interest rates will go up in the USA and the UK.
This being because:
(1) The governments would have to pay more interest on their debts.
(2) People would not be able to pay their mortgages/loans and those that could would have less consumable income and this would slow the economy down even further.
(3) The banks would have to lower their profit on interest (take UK at the moment - bank base rate 0.5% and mortage rate 4.2%. They actually need this huge margin to cover the bad debts they have and to increase their capital and the government realise this and that is why the government says nothing as well as the fact that the government is majority stake holder in these banks and is at risk with these banks).
It would be bad, but I don't see what choice they have. Volcker had to raise IRs to 20% to stop the last gold bull. They don't have long enough in the interim to be able to inflate the debt away, either. I suppose that it could be argued that gold is no longer money as it was in the 70s, but if enough people in the east believe that it is, it will become so.

This is kind of why I don't like either (variable rate) debt, or cash.
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  #207  
Old 19.10.2010, 12:24
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Re: Gold Buying

Sorry slightly 'off topic' question (moving to switzerland in 2 weeks time):

where can I buy gold / silver bullion in Switzerland? Is buying from banks like UBS the best recco option ? are prices negotiable?

Do banks provide safety deposits, whats their typical pricing?
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  #208  
Old 19.10.2010, 12:31
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Re: Gold Buying

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Sorry slightly 'off topic' question (moving to switzerland in 2 weeks time):

where can I buy gold / silver bullion in Switzerland? Is buying from banks like UBS the best recco option ? are prices negotiable?

Do banks provide safety deposits, whats their typical pricing?
How is that offtopic?

These questions have been answered in this thread already.
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  #209  
Old 19.10.2010, 17:07
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Re: Gold Buying

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Sorry slightly 'off topic' question (moving to switzerland in 2 weeks time):

where can I buy gold / silver bullion in Switzerland? Is buying from banks like UBS the best recco option ? are prices negotiable?

Do banks provide safety deposits, whats their typical pricing?
You need to read this thread from the start where I asked this and recieved useful information.
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  #210  
Old 19.10.2010, 17:15
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Re: Gold Buying

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You need to read this thread from the start where I asked this and recieved useful information.

Yeah, but then he doesn't get the replies by email.
It's so much easier to ask again ;-)
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  #211  
Old 19.10.2010, 17:35
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Re: Gold Buying

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Sorry slightly 'off topic' question (moving to switzerland in 2 weeks time):

where can I buy gold / silver bullion in Switzerland? Is buying from banks like UBS the best recco option ? are prices negotiable?

Do banks provide safety deposits, whats their typical pricing?

Sure they give discounts......but you probably got to buy around $100 mio's worth.

Do you really think the UBS cares if you buy 1,5 or 10kg at a time ? If yolu buy smaller sized bars, there willbe a premium to the price per kg

Unlikely they are too keen to provide many services to US citizens at present time, too risky for them
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  #212  
Old 19.10.2010, 17:56
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Re: Gold Buying

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Yeah, but then he doesn't get the replies by email.
It's so much easier to ask again ;-)
LOL Agree
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  #213  
Old 19.10.2010, 23:25
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Re: Gold Buying

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The central bankers ......... The only way they can make paper money attractive once again is to raise interest rates to the level that paper money gives a real rate of return (e.g. 8% minimum). If it plays out like this, it would be time to switch into cash bonds!.............
.......
So far as I can see the central bankers of most major countries are fighting each other to see who can devalue their currency the most & quickest - leaving Switzerland & Japan at the wrong end of the room.

So why would they change track?
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  #214  
Old 19.10.2010, 23:36
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Re: Gold Buying

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Exactly!

But lets have some ideas of safe investments then because I cannot think of any. Most that one would look at are in US Dollars and that is the problem as that is likely to continue to fall because:
(1) Only solution to slow down imports from China
(2) More economic bad news to come out of that place
(3) Most likely QE2

So once you eliminate investing in anything in US Dollars; what is there left.
Possibly shares in food producers (we all need to eat) and in CHF - Nestle ??
Problem with Nestle is that they are world wide so they are impacted by currency changes as much as anybody else. Having said that their shares seem to have recovered welll
I sold out in March because I thought they would fall like all the others but they have been pretty flat since. Not sure what the possible upside is - if they stay flat you might just as well keep your money risk free in the post office.

As somebody said land is a good investment but in Switzerland you have to be careful because of the savage capital gains taxes on houses.
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  #215  
Old 20.10.2010, 00:23
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Re: Gold Buying

What is the capital gains tax on profits booked via gold / silver sale in Switzerland?
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  #216  
Old 22.10.2010, 21:15
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Re: Gold Buying

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Exactly!

But lets have some ideas of safe investments then because I cannot think of any. Most that one would look at are in US Dollars and that is the problem as that is likely to continue to fall because:
(1) Only solution to slow down imports from China
(2) More economic bad news to come out of that place
(3) Most likely QE2

So once you eliminate investing in anything in US Dollars; what is there left.
Possibly shares in food producers (we all need to eat) and in CHF - Nestle ??
Safe?
Farmland, chinese Yuan, slavery, prostitution, weapons and military technology, defense, security (i.e. bulletproofing of cars, etc)....
There is no such thing as "risk free" left, since 9/11 and all that goes with it (in the broadest sense).
In the New Normal world (cfr. Bill Gross) there are no guaranteed yields, "safe bets", bond portfolios that magically pay for our retirement.
You can buy high yield stocks - but will have to come to terms with equity risk, you can go into higher yielding currencies (AUD, NZD, for example) - and then ride the forex turmoil, or buy high yielding corporate bonds and face the possibility of defaults.
Or else move to China and open a business there (which definitely does not count as "easy" or "free lunch" in my books)...
And neither gold will yield magical results.... just witness the $60 drop since I last posted in this thread.
Someone was taking of silver.
Hunt Brothers anyone? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunt_brothers)

P.
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  #217  
Old 03.12.2010, 11:01
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Re: Gold Buying

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Safe?
Farmland, chinese Yuan, slavery, prostitution, weapons and military technology, defense, security (i.e. bulletproofing of cars, etc)....
There is no such thing as "risk free" left, since 9/11 and all that goes with it (in the broadest sense).
In the New Normal world (cfr. Bill Gross) there are no guaranteed yields, "safe bets", bond portfolios that magically pay for our retirement.
You can buy high yield stocks - but will have to come to terms with equity risk, you can go into higher yielding currencies (AUD, NZD, for example) - and then ride the forex turmoil, or buy high yielding corporate bonds and face the possibility of defaults.
Or else move to China and open a business there (which definitely does not count as "easy" or "free lunch" in my books)...
And neither gold will yield magical results.... just witness the $60 drop since I last posted in this thread.
Someone was taking of silver.
Hunt Brothers anyone? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunt_brothers)

P.
Gold is now almost $1400 per oz & circa 44.4K CHF/kg, bubble seems to be holding.

According to todays newspapers Chinal is now not only the worlds largest gold miner but also the biggest gold importer.

Hard to know which way to jump with gold.
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  #218  
Old 06.12.2010, 18:45
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Re: Gold Buying

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Gold is now almost $1400 per oz & circa 44.4K CHF/kg, bubble seems to be holding.

According to todays newspapers Chinal is now not only the worlds largest gold miner but also the biggest gold importer.

Hard to know which way to jump with gold.
i bought more gold and silver in early/mid-october. i didn't like to buy at high prices, but then i figured that i would be happy to take a loss in order to have some protection against hyper-inflation of sterling.

i just checked today and i'm up over 17% after charges on those purchases after only a month and a half. totally crazy.
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  #219  
Old 06.12.2010, 23:11
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Re: Gold Buying

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i bought more gold and silver in early/mid-october. i didn't like to buy at high prices, but then i figured that i would be happy to take a loss in order to have some protection against hyper-inflation of sterling.

i just checked today and i'm up over 17% after charges on those purchases after only a month and a half. totally crazy.
good on yer!

Wish I knew the right time to get out.....
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  #220  
Old 07.12.2010, 15:14
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Re: Gold Buying

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What is the capital gains tax on profits booked via gold / silver sale in Switzerland?
Did this get answered? I was looking for similar info and have poured through all 11 wonderful pages. I deduce that there's only VAT if you declare it?

I have been reviewing this project for almost a year, slow I know, extracting info from UBS bankers has been a cultural awareness pHD, I now appreciate that I have to ask the right questions and if I don't get an answer it could mean they don;t wnat me to know or that they don't know or that it is an unknown or that I'm an idiot and they don't want to embarrass me.

Depsite the price dramas of this planet's wealth standard, I am still hoping to purchase some, though it will probably not be held with UBS, though maybe bought from them. They couldn't believe that I asked whether storage fees inlcuded insurance - it appears they do not insure their gold but, they told me they have lots of secruity guards, they are a Swiss bank! They also told me there is no big difference to London Fix- ha ha ha

and so it has taken me along journey to be able to make decisions. I have looked long and cautiously at bullionvault.com, they seem clean, but I don't know....... someone else said you need to be able to touch it quickly and even UBS's individual metal safe custody is not that easy to access if they go bankrupt., While they probably won't, we could be living in the last days when a loaf of bread will cost a bar of gold........maybe I'll open a bakery ...akin to buying farmland.....2012 is soon upon us.

any news from the previous contributors on this thread? you have been quiet for a few months I see. Cashboy, Chenzug, Confloozed and Maverick ? thanks in anticipation
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