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  #661  
Old 03.09.2013, 23:10
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Re: Gold Buying

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OK... so apparently there are all these mines with cash costs of $400 per ounce, who are not digging up their gold and selling it at a massive profit today because they believe that gold will be worth more tomorrow. Which companies are these? I'd really like to invest in gold miners that have these kinds of low cost reserves yet can afford to sit on them for years (decades?). Or are they privately owned? This can only make sense if they have a combination of a very low cost of capital and very patient investors.

Logically this means that e.g. Barrick & Newmont are gold bears, and are only selling gold today because they believe that it will be worth less tomorrow... In which case, I'm confused as to why Barrick recently spent $2 billion to close their hedge book.

I thought that I understood the gold market, but this is a whole strange new world...
You do know that quote is from 2009?
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  #662  
Old 03.09.2013, 23:24
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Re: Gold Buying

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About "I thought that I understood the gold market, but this is a whole strange new world..."

Me too, I thought this so called "paper gold" had the objective of tracking real gold prices.
But recently somebody sold a lot of "paper gold" & this hit the price of real gold??
Isn't this a case of the tail wagging the dog?
The goldbug theory seems to be that paper gold affects the short term price, but the physical movement of real gold determines the long term price. i.e. Traders can sell virtually unlimited amounts of GLD derivatives, futures contracts based on leased central bank gold, etc, etc. but eventually physical gold flows (e.g. google 'UK gold exports surge tenfold this year' and click on the first result to get around the FT paywall) will determine the 'real' price of gold. We'll know whether this theory is correct or not in a few years.
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  #663  
Old 03.09.2013, 23:30
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Re: Gold Buying

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You do know that quote is from 2009?
Yes, but the conclusive end of Barrick's decade+ long hedging is the best proof I could immediately find that they are not gold bears. Which is the logical conclusion of the bizarre view of the gold market in the post I was replying to. Miners with a cash cost of $400 don't exist in significant quantities. Even if they did, they wouldn't be burning the cost of their capital by sitting - quite literally - on a gold mine.

If I am wrong on this, then the OP can easily prove it by naming these hoarders.

I'll be investing in them.
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Why must we spend decades of our lives paying the bankers' interest on [debt|money|credit] that they magicked out of nothing but thin air?
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  #664  
Old 03.09.2013, 23:39
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Re: Gold Buying

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Yes, but the conclusive end of Barrick's decade+ long hedging is the best proof I could immediately find that they are not gold bears. Which is the logical conclusion of the bizarre view of the gold market in the post I was replying to. Miners with a cash cost of $400 don't exist in significant quantities. Even if they did, they wouldn't be burning the cost of their capital by sitting - quite literally - on a gold mine.

If I am wrong on this, then the OP can easily prove it by naming these hoarders.

I'll be investing in them.
They won't be cheap.......people will obviously pay more for a mine with low cost of production, question is how much easy gold does the mine have?
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  #665  
Old 03.09.2013, 23:46
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Re: Gold Buying

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They won't be cheap.......people will obviously pay more for a mine with low cost of production, question is how much easy gold does the mine have?
They'd need maybe 500 tonnes to move the gold market. In the short term. Such a company just doesn't exist.
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  #666  
Old 04.09.2013, 00:39
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Re: Gold Buying

Strike starts in South Africa's gold mines today!
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  #667  
Old 04.09.2013, 12:46
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Re: Gold Buying

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They'd need maybe 500 tonnes to move the gold market. In the short term. Such a company just doesn't exist.
You use paper to move the gold market, you don't need any gold at all just deep pockets for your margin call when it goes against you.
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  #668  
Old 04.09.2013, 14:01
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Re: Gold Buying

you should all be switching to silver, outperforming gold this month and up 16%.
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  #669  
Old 17.09.2013, 13:32
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Re: Gold Buying

Interesting article on gold and the US debt.

http://www.pinnacledigest.com/articl...gold-he-leaves
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  #670  
Old 02.01.2014, 14:18
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Re: Gold Buying

So what happened to all the gold bugs and silver bugs?

Well in case you are wondering why this thread has gone quiet of late... the following might be a good indication as to why

Gold down 28%, and silver down 36% in 2013

More here: This is money article
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  #671  
Old 02.01.2014, 14:39
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Re: Gold Buying

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So what happened to all the gold bugs and silver bugs?

...Gold down 28%, and silver down 36% in 2013 ...
Long-term metal buyers are still around, many having bought plenty of their inventory when prices were even lower than they are today. To them, a downward trend only means the stuff is more affordable for a while.

Many short-term "investors" very are likely a different story, selling off inventory in a panic, for example, to cut their losses.
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  #672  
Old 02.01.2014, 14:45
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Re: Gold Buying

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To them, a downward trend only means the stuff is more affordable for a while.
Don't catch a falling knife...
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  #673  
Old 02.01.2014, 15:27
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Re: Gold Buying

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Don't catch a falling knife...
Simple observation tells us that a 'falling knife' doesn't reverse direction, whereas downward trends in fiat 'currency' metal prices do — again and again.
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  #674  
Old 02.01.2014, 15:50
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Re: Gold Buying

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Simple observation tells us that a 'falling knife' doesn't reverse direction, whereas downward trends in fiat 'currency' metal prices do — again and again.
Keep telling yourself that
Gold rush is finished, fertig, finito benito... anyone buying now will have to wait a very long time for it to bottom out and then reverse
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  #675  
Old 02.01.2014, 16:31
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Re: Gold Buying

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Keep telling yourself that
Gold rush is finished, fertig, finito benito... anyone buying now will have to wait a very long time for it to bottom out and then reverse

Amusing you should post this on a day when both gold & silver have shown good gains


We should have bought early this morning
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  #676  
Old 02.01.2014, 16:44
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Re: Gold Buying

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Amusing you should post this on a day when both gold & silver have shown good gains
Simply a dead cat bounce
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  #677  
Old 02.01.2014, 17:00
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Re: Gold Buying

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Simply a dead cat bounce

If I knew how the markets will move then I would be living in a big chalet in the mountains instead of a small apartment in Kanton Zürich; maybe you do?
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  #678  
Old 02.01.2014, 17:06
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Re: Gold Buying

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...Gold rush is finished, fertig, finito benito...
If by that you mean to suggest that fiat 'currencies' will only get stronger vis-a-vis metal, I've heard that before from other self-styled experts, and I have no more reason to believe you than I did them (they were wrong, too).

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...anyone buying now will pay lower prices until the next 'financial crisis'.
Fixed that for you.

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Simply a dead cat bounce
Time will tell whether your 'falling knife' and 'dead cat bounce' predictions are truly informed or not. (And I'm perfectly content to wait.)
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  #679  
Old 02.01.2014, 17:13
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Re: Gold Buying

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Time will tell whether your 'falling knife' and 'dead cat bounce' predictions are truly informed or not. (And I'm perfectly content to wait.)
I can guarantee you that they are NOT well informed at all
Just a casual observations from someone who is not interested in shiny metals regardless of how attractive they seem at times and last year seems to be the best year to confirm my bias
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  #680  
Old 02.01.2014, 17:23
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Re: Gold Buying

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I can guarantee you that they are NOT well informed at all...
That's exactly my point — they aren't well-informed. 'Casual observations' are a dime a dozen, and I'm not in the market for them.
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