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  #881  
Old 27.10.2014, 11:22
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Re: Gold Buying

Nice speech from Lukas Reimann, Nationalrat.

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  #882  
Old 27.10.2014, 12:26
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Re: Gold Buying

Inflation is a tax on money (as I wrote >>here<<).

Finally someone sais the truth in parliament.

No-one needs to worry though: Unless a critical mass understands and revolts, nothing will change.

I have a feeling the current Fiat system will survive for a long time.
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  #883  
Old 05.11.2014, 16:54
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Re: Gold Buying

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...nothing will change.

I have a feeling the current Fiat system will survive for a long time.
Must you always radiate such gushing optimism?

Seriously, you may be right, but the Gold Initiative has a chance to open some more eyes and act as a catalyst for public awareness both in Switzerland and beyond her borders. It may be slow coming, but I think change from the bottom up is all but inevitable.
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  #884  
Old 05.11.2014, 21:23
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Re: Gold Buying

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Must you always radiate such gushing optimism?

Seriously, you may be right, but the Gold Initiative has a chance to open some more eyes and act as a catalyst for public awareness both in Switzerland and beyond her borders. It may be slow coming, but I think change from the bottom up is all but inevitable.
You have missed the fact that gold is now at a 4 year low, the general public always loose when it comes to investing, but of course mugs are born every year
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  #885  
Old 06.11.2014, 07:45
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Re: Gold Buying

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You have missed the fact that gold is now at a 4 year low...
No, as a matter of fact I did not. Right now the price of gold is very favorable for buyers.

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...the general public always loose when it comes to investing...
You — not unlike much of the "general public" — apparently still don't know the difference between an "investment" and a store of wealth.
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  #886  
Old 06.11.2014, 08:01
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Re: Gold Buying

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No, as a matter of fact I did not. Right now the price of gold is very favorable for buyers.



You — not unlike much of the "general public" — apparently still don't know the difference between an "investment" and a store of wealth.
Gold has failed to store wealth over the last 4 years, it does store wealth, it's pure speculation & not an investment. You assume a greater fool will take it off your hands for a higher price.
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  #887  
Old 07.11.2014, 02:05
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Re: Gold Buying

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Gold has failed to store wealth over the last 4 years, it does store wealth, it's pure speculation & not an investment. You assume a greater fool will take it off your hands for a higher price.
You keep ignoring the distinction between "investment" and "storage-of-wealth," using the two different terms interchangeably, and failing to supply any empirical corroboration for your broken-record speculation about gold's alleged irrelevance. What exactly compels you to do this?

To "assume a greater fool will take it off your hands for a higher price" is "gambling" at worst and "investing" to some, but it is not the definition of "storage of wealth." Yet you persist in painting everyone with your fat "gambler" brush, as if no other motive were possible. Again I can't help but wonder: What exactly compels you to do this?

You've ridden your anti-gold agenda around this «Gold Buying» thread a few times now. Why not give it a rest?
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  #888  
Old 07.11.2014, 08:18
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Re: Gold Buying

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You keep ignoring the distinction between "investment" and "storage-of-wealth," using the two different terms interchangeably, and failing to supply any empirical corroboration for your broken-record speculation about gold's alleged irrelevance. What exactly compels you to do this?

To "assume a greater fool will take it off your hands for a higher price" is "gambling" at worst and "investing" to some, but it is not the definition of "storage of wealth." Yet you persist in painting everyone with your fat "gambler" brush, as if no other motive were possible. Again I can't help but wonder: What exactly compels you to do this?

You've ridden your anti-gold agenda around this «Gold Buying» thread a few times now. Why not give it a rest?
Well gold has been falling throughout the time when I said it will, hopefully I can save some EF members from loosing money. You have a pony in this race......
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  #889  
Old 07.11.2014, 10:50
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Re: Gold Buying

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Well gold has been falling throughout the time when I said it will, hopefully I can save some EF members from loosing money. You have a pony in this race......
I bought my first ounces in the year 2000 at USD 300/ounce.
I bought my (so far) last ounces in the year 2007 at USD 700/ounce.

Ever since I´m in the market I could sell at a (huge) win.
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  #890  
Old 07.11.2014, 11:16
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Re: Gold Buying

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I bought my first ounces in the year 2000 at USD 300/ounce.
I bought my (so far) last ounces in the year 2007 at USD 700/ounce.

Ever since I´m in the market I could sell at a (huge) win.
I suspect that $800 an ounce within 2 years is fairly likely, I would not be a buyer at $800. The USD is strengthening the doomsday outcome is unlikely.
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  #891  
Old 07.11.2014, 19:25
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Re: Gold Buying

Noted this morning gold made its low for the year and has since bounced strongly.

Also that the GOFO rates were at an extreme negative value yesterday.
http://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics
(Click 'Table' tab and then hit the 'Price for' drop-down menu)
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  #892  
Old 08.11.2014, 17:36
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Re: Gold Buying

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Well gold has been falling throughout the time when I said it will, hopefully I can save some EF members from loosing money...
You think getting one prediction right makes you somebody's savior?

People "lose money" all the time, in all kinds of transactions. It seems rather naïve to suggest that "losing money" by buying a precious metal that has a rather long track record is somehow inevitable today, especially based on your comparatively unknown track record.

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...1 dollar in gold became 78 cents
1 dollar in bonds became 1000 dollars
1 dollar in stocks became 500k

You may prefer 78 cents but I will take the 500k...
Then it's fair to assume that you did, and we're blessed that an independently wealthy person such as yourself would bother sharing the secrets of his wealth achievements here and "saving" us from certain doom?

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I suspect that $800 an ounce within 2 years is fairly likely, I would not be a buyer at $800. The USD is strengthening the doomsday outcome is unlikely.
Keeping telling yourself that, and ignoring history.
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  #893  
Old 08.11.2014, 17:49
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Re: Gold Buying

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Noted this morning gold made its low for the year and has since bounced strongly.

Also that the GOFO rates were at an extreme negative value yesterday.
http://www.lbma.org.uk/pricing-and-statistics
(Click 'Table' tab and then hit the 'Price for' drop-down menu)
True, still low at CHF prices but not so extreme as in US$ - myself am more interested in the CHF price
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  #894  
Old 08.11.2014, 17:56
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Re: Gold Buying

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You think getting one prediction right makes you somebody's savior?



People "lose money" all the time, in all kinds of transactions. It seems rather naïve to suggest that "losing money" by buying a precious metal that has a rather long track record is somehow inevitable today, especially based on your comparatively unknown track record.







Then it's fair to assume that you did, and we're blessed that an independently wealthy person such as yourself would bother sharing the secrets of his wealth achievements here and "saving" us from certain doom?







Keeping telling yourself that, and ignoring history.

I am only independently wealthy due to my choice of investments over the last 10 years, anyone here could have done the same, it's not as if I have kept my investment ideas to myself. Many people were laughing at my intention to put 90% of my wealth in Apple stock 18 months ago.

Don't know what length of time you call history, stocks always do best over the long term.
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  #895  
Old 08.11.2014, 18:43
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Re: Gold Buying

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I am only independently wealthy due to my choice of investments over the last 10 years...
...Which ipso facto entitles you to arbitrarily denounce the centuries-old custom of holding of precious metals as a store of wealth?

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I am only independently wealthy due to my choice of investments over the last 10 years...
And will you now leave those "investments" as-is, ever trusting that the West's politicians, and central bankers are really as clever as they pretend to be, so your fiat currency-based holdings have some perpetual value as guaranteed by the state?

(I didn't think so.)

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...stocks always do best over the long term.
I think you're assuming too much — e.g., your hearers choose the same stocks you do, and share your arbitrary assumption that no fiat currency — especially not the USD — will ever again crash due to credit/monetary hyperinflation.

(Good luck with that.)
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Last edited by Texaner; 08.11.2014 at 19:18.
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  #896  
Old 08.11.2014, 18:50
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Re: Gold Buying

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True, still low at CHF prices but not so extreme as in US$ - myself am more interested in the CHF price
True, I was forgetting Swiss prices were lower the end of last year. That'll be the dollar strengthening in recent months (or is it the SFr and euro weakening? ).
Do you have a good online source for CHF/kg gold charts? I have used the ZKB's charts which can be set to show as far back as 10 yrs.
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  #897  
Old 08.11.2014, 18:51
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Re: Gold Buying

Buying stock is likely to protect you from currency debasement. Just because a stock is priced in dollars, it doesn't mean that the price will be pegged to that dollar value in the same way that if a bar of gold costs $1000 dollars it doesn't mean that the value of that gold will fall with the value of dollars.

Also, I think that gold has done the job of preserving wealth... during the period when it went from $300 to $1500.

We're past that now. Whether gold is the best vehicle to protect wealth during the next decade is arguable.
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Old 08.11.2014, 23:51
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Re: Gold Buying

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...Which ipso facto entitles you to arbitrarily denounce the centuries-old custom of holding of precious metals as a store of wealth?



And will you now leave those "investments" as-is, ever trusting that the West's politicians, and central bankers are really as clever as they pretend to be, so your fiat currency-based holdings have some perpetual value as guaranteed by the state?

(I didn't think so.)



I think you're assuming too much — e.g., your hearers choose the same stocks you do, and share your arbitrary assumption that no fiat currency — especially not the USD — will ever again crash due to credit/monetary hyperinflation.

(Good luck with that.)
I don't need any luck.

You only get the chance that I had with Apple once in a decade. Till the next obvious big bet I will invest in high quality businesses that can sustain a high return on operating capital employed when the market prices them at a price I am willing to pay.

I find it really interesting to hear your opinions, & those of members like Phil_MCR, I can then predict with certainty where to place my bets, I am not looking to be applauded in my choices, I just wish to make money tax free. It's actually quite easy if I pick the brains of people almost certainly more intelligent than myself. I just analyse the information differently.
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  #899  
Old 09.11.2014, 03:52
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Re: Gold Buying

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I don't need any luck.

You only get the chance that I had with Apple once in a decade. Till the next obvious big bet I will invest in high quality businesses that can sustain a high return on operating capital employed when the market prices them at a price I am willing to pay.

I find it really interesting to hear your opinions, & those of members like Phil_MCR, I can then predict with certainty where to place my bets, I am not looking to be applauded in my choices, I just wish to make money tax free. It's actually quite easy if I pick the brains of people almost certainly more intelligent than myself. I just analyse the information differently.
I think you are right to focus on the big obvious bets. For me these included:

Gold. When it was $300-$400 range.
Short banks just before the crisis (I wanted to short NRK but couldn't due to working for the auditor at the time - I wish I'd quit and just did it!)
Long China previous decade.
Long Swiss real estate - since relaxation of foreign ownership and swiss QE


More interesting were the bets that others considered a no-brainer, but I was too cautious and missed out:

Bitcoin - still kicking myself for this one. I would have been a multi-millionaire. Lesson learned: when the investment is negligible and there is innovative technology that solves a real problem, take a punt on it. Lesson #2: even if you don't think it will work out in the long term, it doesn't mean you can't make money on it as others jump on the bandwagon (see also gold > $800)

Apple - for me, the dependency on a single product (iphone) which is in a highly competitive market was a risk factor that I didn't think was priced in. of course balanced against that is the world class execution ability of apple, their loyal customers, massive cash/profit generation and future upside of brand extension (iWatch) or the valuation of apple as a luxury brand instead of as a tech company.

Facebook - undervalued when it was around $20. a premium destination and what might be a future great CEO.

Indian company - I was put off by the currency risk, but should have looked through to the reliable profitability and natural hedging.

All in all, I realised that I was too risk averse. In particular, due to my training and personality, I see certain tail risks where others may not. However, I assign too much weight to them. It would have paid off to take the risk and suffer it if it materialises.
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Old 12.11.2014, 17:07
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Re: Gold Buying

http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.ch/20...wer-to-aa.html

"Bear's Anonymous" - Finance's Answer to A.A.

The following is a voyeuristic peek into a meeting of the Stamford, CT branch of "Bears Anonymous", duly held a Rippowam High School….recounted in 2007 and rediscovered, and ever so apt in 2014.

Chuck: Hi everybody. My Name is Chuck, and I am a bear. I have had a bearishness problem for a long time. Not just a predilection for the usual contrarian stuff, which when I look back I have had since I've been a child, but a real nagging and pressing fear that the financial sky is about to fall at any moment.

I don't know where it first began. Maybe it was 1987. Yeah, that scarred me. I was naive, I guess, and long, and got slapped 20% that day in Oct 87. I tried to get out, but ended up exiting at levels near where it closed. A couple of years worth of savings just vaporized, that was!! But as things recovered, I was out of the market and then I didn't get back in because it looked to me like the world was really was going to end with thirld world debt, the S&L crisis, and the massive commerical real estate crash that seemed bound to cause a depression. Then, in 1991 when the UAL deal exploded - you know all those Reagan deficits coming home to roost - I thought that we were set for an ever deeper recession, but I was wrong, and again uninvested when the market started rallying. Come 1994, the bond market exploded and it looked like the end again - budget deficits, trade deficits, political gridlock and remember we were still working off the thriftbank and S&L issues, not to mention the near-destruction of the Texas oil patch and US agricultural sectors. Damn! If that wasn't enough to keep me out of the market, I don't know what is, but it did, and I was sure that I'd get a better opportunity to get in later.

Then came large cap cap growth and technology speculation. Germany and Japan were in near-depression, yet investors were paying silliest prices for big-pharma and global large cap growth. Who would thought they could continue to grow like that and justify the high prices? Not me. I missed it again.

All the while, I told myself: "It's ok. It's good to be prudent. The reckless will suffer like the Okies of the 30s. And, after all, it's only opportunity cost. Better one in hand than none in the bush". And I probably had a hundred other justifications and rationalizations for my bearishness, just in case I gnawed through these.

1998 came along and finally, finally, I was proven right with the unraveling of LTCM and bitch-slapping of [continues in link]
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