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  #941  
Old 09.12.2014, 09:16
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Re: Gold Buying

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Apparently either you haven't been paying attention or you don't understand the difference between an investment and a store of value/wealth, any more than Fatmanfilms — even after it's been explained more than once in this thread.

The point is not what "outperforms" what (i.e., what makes a better investment), but what has held value/wealth. And metals have held value/wealth quite adequately in the long term, which is all is expected by those who use them as a store of value/wealth. They're not wringing their hands because they were "outperformed" by something else, they're content to have value/wealth safely stored somewhere (in their case, metal).

Contrast that with Fatmanfilms' arbitrary and uncorroborated claim that "Gold is not a store of wealth ... it never has been," and it's readily apparent that he's talking through his hat.
but surely anything that has outperformed in investment terms has also done a better job of preserving wealth.

the figures appear just to be a snapshot which then doesn't include the substantial impacts of dividend payments and rental yields which would multiply the value of the real estate and stock investments, whereas the storage costs of gold have not been considered which reduce the return on gold.

also wealth is somewhat relative. someone in the xx% of wealthiest people having invested in gold may not have maintained their position relative to others who invested in other things.

therefore, i'd argue that the preservation of wealth should not be by reference to nominal amounts, but relative to average return, or marginal purchasing power.

in the end it is about drawing a baseline. sure, you can draw it on inflation adjusted purchasing power instead of what an alternative return could have been, but then you would have to face the question: what is the use of such a measure? why would anyone bother with what is a 'better store of wealth' versus what is a 'better economic outcome'?

i could understand if you made the argument that something is a better store of wealth because it is less volatile and so can be liquidated at any point in time with more certain value, but i doubt whether gold fares much better (if at all better) than real estate or stocks - after all better performance buys you more lattitude in dealing with the dips.
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  #942  
Old 09.12.2014, 10:33
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Re: Gold Buying

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But that shows that stocks and property outperformed gold by a large margin!
Only if you happen to have bought and sold the right stocks and properties at the right times. Whereas gold performed sufficiently well without the risks and transactions.
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  #943  
Old 09.12.2014, 13:27
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Re: Gold Buying

On the subject of gold ownership I recommend this YouTube interview of David Jensen by Jay Taylor. It includes a nice explanation of GOFO and backwardation - 30 minutes:

"The Leper with the Most Fingers"
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  #944  
Old 09.12.2014, 14:05
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Re: Gold Buying

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Only if you happen to have bought and sold the right stocks and properties at the right times. Whereas gold performed sufficiently well without the risks and transactions.
The S&P 500 over the last 5 years rose 86.88%, so about 13.3% CAGR which is definitely not bad and doesn't require picking stocks or timing anything. Get in, get out, just like gold.

Compare the 5y charts to see the fluctuations and rethink the "risk" argument.

All investments are risky. The fact that some have been "steadily performing" or "safe" (more like safer than others), doesn't mean they will stay that way.

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  #945  
Old 09.12.2014, 14:14
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Re: Gold Buying

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Surprised too, never expected or anticipated the current trend.
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Apparently you boys never watch the news.
Please give us the name of the news program that realistically forecasts oil price trends?
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  #946  
Old 09.12.2014, 14:50
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Re: Gold Buying

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The S&P 500 over the last 5 years rose 86.88%, so about 13.3% CAGR which is definitely not bad and doesn't require picking stocks or timing anything. Get in, get out, just like gold.

Compare the 5y charts to see the fluctuations and rethink the "risk" argument.

All investments are risky. The fact that some have been "steadily performing" or "safe" (more like safer than others), doesn't mean they will stay that way.

So nice to pick and choose isn't it. Why don't you select an investment period between 2005 and 2008?

Glass half full isn't it.
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  #947  
Old 09.12.2014, 17:52
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Re: Gold Buying

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but surely anything that has outperformed in investment terms has also done a better job of preserving wealth...
With all due respect, you still don't get it. Only an investment has performance as its goal. A store of wealth, on the other hand, requires no performance other than the preservation of some measure of wealth in an instrument that the "storer" trusts, regardless of the reason for that trust. Ups and downs are understood; sufficient substantial value in any economic situation is all that is expected — not performance or a guaranteed increase as with investing.

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...i doubt whether gold fares much better (if at all better) than real estate or stocks - after all better performance buys you more lattitude in dealing with the dips.
Again, you don't get it. It's not about how gold fares or performs in competition with anything else. It's not an investment! Those who use various vehicles as stores of wealth aren't obliged to share your propensity to analyze everything based on performance, when it comes to their attitudes about storing wealth. (That's not meant as a swipe against you personally. If I were a serious investor, I believe that would my default mindset. It just doesn't apply when the 'investment' is really a store of wealth.)
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Last edited by Texaner; 09.12.2014 at 20:17.
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  #948  
Old 09.12.2014, 20:12
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Re: Gold Buying

Clearly there are proven ways of "out-performing" gold; with the right information, opportunities and acumen. But higher rewards require some risk-taking. As Texaner said, it doesn't suit for the same purpose or objective.

A wealthy mogul once advised me in my youth, "Phos, in regards to wealth, it isn't about how much money you can make. You can make a lot of money, and you will likely spend a lot." We know all about that while living here in Switzerland. He continues, "Wealth is not about how much money you make, it is about what you own and keep".

So these vehicles for making money is fine for making money. But for real wealth, I would think the things you truly keep are Real Estate; Natural Resources, e.g., water and mineral rights; gold; silver; platinum; diamonds; intellectual property; and maybe ownership of production capabilities.
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  #949  
Old 09.12.2014, 21:14
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Re: Gold Buying

Gold back up to $1,230 and oil down to $66.

Wish I had the courage to invest in something that is moving quickly
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  #950  
Old 10.12.2014, 00:17
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Re: Gold Buying

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Please give us the name of the news program that realistically forecasts oil price trends?
Just to answer this in laymen's terms...I would think, that anyone that invests in anything, does not only a lot of research of what is the unknown, the possible upcoming, but also some field research. Like the tv.


I knew when the last crash was coming 5 years out. Anyone who didn't, well they sold in a frenzy. For some reason everyone thought we were all going to explode into oblivion. I sold all my treasury bonds that had good yields on them cause they were bought a while ago, and poured every dollar I had into the market on, what was officially 2 days after the bottom. Curious how I did?


This oil thing is a long time coming. And to be honest it could get a lot worse. Just the way prices were jammed up way past proportion, it will probably happen going down now because so many different countries in the world have invested in oil as their source of stability and power, they are going to pump extra to make up for the loss of revenue.


Unless of course you think that Russia, OPEC, Venezuela, the USA, and so on, can sit down at the table, with all their different political differences and agree on a price to stabilize all this? I doubt it.
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  #951  
Old 10.12.2014, 00:26
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Re: Gold Buying

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Just to answer this in laymen's terms...I would think, that anyone that invests in anything, does not only a lot of research of what is the unknown, the possible upcoming, but also some field research. Like the tv.


I knew when the last crash was coming 5 years out. Anyone who didn't, well they sold in a frenzy. For some reason everyone thought we were all going to explode into oblivion. I sold all my treasury bonds that had good yields on them cause they were bought a while ago, and poured every dollar I had into the market on, what was officially 2 days after the bottom. Curious how I did?


This oil thing is a long time coming. And to be honest it could get a lot worse. Just the way prices were jammed up way past proportion, it will probably happen going down now because so many different countries in the world have invested in oil as their source of stability and power, they are going to pump extra to make up for the loss of revenue.


Unless of course you think that Russia, OPEC, Venezuela, the USA, and so on, can sit down at the table, with all their different political differences and agree on a price to stabilize all this? I doubt it.
Well the new oil price will have bad effects on the economies of at least Iran, Venezuela and Russia plus wipe out many US fracking companies. Might force them to the table?
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  #952  
Old 10.12.2014, 00:48
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Re: Gold Buying

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Well the new oil price will have bad effects on the economies of at least Iran, Venezuela and Russia plus wipe out many US fracking companies. Might force them to the table?
Yeah sure. But think of the political issues that underline all of this. Now I know oil underlines the reason we have most political problems that involve war in the last 60 or so years, so it is two edged sword. The USA is nearing better terms with Iran over this Isis and Syria issue, Venezuela is possibly being forced to sell their operations because of the pricing, and Russia, well we have sanction on them over Ukraine. Iran would probably benefit a lot for coming to agreements with the USA, as they have been isolated for along time as well. I think better economic growth would surpass cheap gas for their citizens.


I think there is too much going on to get any kind of price fixing agreements. Unless they can make some behind the scenes deals regarding policy. And Obama's numbers are so far in the toilet it's in his interest to get some political achievements as cheap oil means more jobs, more cars being made, less political pressure cause of higher gas prices, and chemical companies like DOW, which makes basically everything out of oil, their profits will increase. The CEO of DOW...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_N._Liveris has a lot of influence on the Obama administration. And has to be benefiting as well. When those two girls were released from a north Korean labor camp that were accused of being spies, I don't know how anyone else thought it wasn't odd how he was involved in the negotiations(behind the scenes), to allow for their release http://www.mlive.com/business/mid-mi...anks_from.html


My point is, on one hand some countries do not want their price of oil to bottom out because they need cash to grow and be strong. On the other hand, trading that off for growth might be more useful. And all these places have different clashing objectives.


I don't see it short term. I don't want to say 35 a barrel, but, why not? The world is moving away from oil to nat gas, and the USA has atleast 100 years of nat gas reserves to be self sufficient.


Even if fracking suffers for oil, the US has been building up natural gas for trucking so not a total fail.
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  #953  
Old 12.12.2014, 18:44
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Re: Gold Buying

So 10% of Apple in 1976 invested in Gold is worth $1750 today, not a good trade.

If anyone actually believes that $800 in 1976 has the spending power of $1750 today, I think I can give up posting.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-...004201732.html
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  #954  
Old 22.12.2014, 20:11
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Re: Gold Buying

German Bundesbank: Gold-Repatriation on schedule

Saw this article:
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soz...a-1010029.html

Unfortunately, no source provided.
Homepage of the German Bundesbank is almost devoid of the subject altogether....
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  #955  
Old 29.12.2014, 03:36
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Re: Gold Buying

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...I think I can give up posting.
Please do.
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  #956  
Old 06.01.2015, 10:47
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Re: Gold Buying

Anyone looking at black gold (= oil)
Crude prices are dropping like a stone - at present under $49.

http://www.investing.com/commodities...treaming-chart
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  #957  
Old 06.01.2015, 11:03
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Re: Gold Buying

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Anyone looking at black gold (= oil)
Crude prices are dropping like a stone - at present under $49.

http://www.investing.com/commodities...treaming-chart
i think quite a lot of commodity traders and funds are looking at it!
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  #958  
Old 12.01.2015, 18:05
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Re: Gold Buying

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Anyone looking at black gold (= oil)
Crude prices are dropping like a stone - at present under $49.

http://www.investing.com/commodities...treaming-chart
Now $47 while gold is 1220

Chinese curse; may you live in interesting times
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  #959  
Old 12.01.2015, 18:25
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Re: Gold Buying

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Now $47 while gold is 1220

Chinese curse; may you live in interesting times
Hopefully these prices should if they hold for a while longer put an end to the idiotic fraking plans for the UK and some other European countries.
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Old 12.01.2015, 18:50
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Re: Gold Buying

do anyone know how I can trade oil? (obviously without delivery :-)
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