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  #961  
Old 12.01.2015, 23:04
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Re: Gold Buying

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do anyone know how I can trade oil? (obviously without delivery :-)
read this
http://www.theoptionsguide.com/crude-oil-futures.aspx
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  #962  
Old 12.01.2015, 23:07
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Re: Gold Buying

And the minimum trade?
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  #963  
Old 21.01.2015, 14:30
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Re: Gold Buying

Gold back up to $1300, maybe the Russians did know what they were doing?
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  #964  
Old 21.01.2015, 14:39
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Re: Gold Buying

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Gold back up to $1300, maybe the Russians did know what they were doing?
Less roughly 15% in CHF terms, so a bad investment regardless for anyone who lives here. Texanor will of course disagree
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  #965  
Old 21.01.2015, 15:20
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Re: Gold Buying

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With all due respect, you still don't get it. Only an investment has performance as its goal. A store of wealth, on the other hand, requires no performance other than the preservation of some measure of wealth in an instrument that the "storer" trusts, regardless of the reason for that trust. Ups and downs are understood; sufficient substantial value in any economic situation is all that is expected — not performance or a guaranteed increase as with investing.
I think you're the one that doesn't get it. There are degrees of preservation.

If you put 100 in assets A, B and C to preserve wealth and later you get:

A: 80%
B: 100%
C: 120%

Then B has done better than A at preserving wealth and C has done better than B at preserving wealth.

Given that purchasing power etc. is varying, it is not a black and white answer of "this" has preserved wealth and "that" hasn't but a matter of degree.

And it makes sense also to consider a margin of variation.

Of course, the snapshot in time valuation is also misleading since with gold you have an annual storage cost, which could whittle down the value over time, whereas with some other assets you have a stream of income which enhances it.

Of course, you can try to play semantic games and talk of investment vs preservation, but in the end you are looking at how purchasing power has been retained after a period of time - and while gold has held an important storage function historically, it is not the be-all and end-all for wealth preservation.

EDIT: just to add, there are a lot of tin-foil hat wearing end-of-times people who hadn't looked at gold at all for wealth preservation until it already shot through the roof. this also makes me wary of gold as there seems to be a lot of bandwagon joining and bubble mentality going on top of the end-of-days-paranoia...
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  #966  
Old 22.01.2015, 03:07
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Re: Gold Buying

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I think you're the one that doesn't get it. There are degrees of preservation.

If you put 100 in assets A, B and C to preserve wealth and later you get:

A: 80%
B: 100%
C: 120%

Then B has done better than A at preserving wealth...
You have arbitrarily defined whenever "later" is, and arbitrarily decided that 80% preservation is "bad" by comparing it to a method of preservation that has fared "better" vis-a-vis a particular paper currency.

Does that make gold evil? Or the worst choice for wealth preservation? No, it only means that your arbitrarily selected outcome, deadline and relative difference (vis-a-vis other preservation options) aren't optimal — especially from an INVESTOR's point of view(!).

Preserving wealth differs from investing (for the umteenth time[!!]) in that gains and losses (vis-a-vis one or more paper currencies) at various times aren't as important as retention of a substantial measure of value. Those of you who see everything exclusively through investment-colored glasses tend to rate everything based on return, operating on the assumption that anything less than a positive return (particularly vis-a-vis a particular paper currency) is "bad."

Which is precisely where you err in pretending to understand the objective presumed mechanics of wealth preservation: You're always trying to redefine it in terms of investment and return on investment, which is NOT wealth preservation(!).

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...Of course, you can try to play semantic games and talk of investment vs preservation, but in the end you are looking at how purchasing power has been retained after a period of time...
What exactly makes your paper currency- and investment-based "semantic games" superior to the so-called "semantic games" of the wealth preserver, who simply objects to arbitrary time constraints and paper currency comparisons?

I'm hardly convinced that I'm, the one that doesn't get it.
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Old 22.01.2015, 09:14
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Re: Gold Buying

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Gold back up to $1300, maybe the Russians did know what they were doing?
Trouble with the ruble, and the SNB depegging the CHF indicate turbulence in currencies ahead. China has also been hoarding Gold, and Germany as well. Big announcement today from ECB likely create more ripples or waves.
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  #968  
Old 30.01.2015, 02:09
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Re: Gold Buying

According to figures released today central banks bought 461 tonnes of gold in 2014; the second highest purchase since the gold standard collapsed in 1971.

Russia bought 152 Tonnes
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  #969  
Old 30.01.2015, 10:14
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Re: Gold Buying

In the UBS counters I saw 4 people buying kinobars recently. People in CH understand what's important in these times, it seems.
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  #970  
Old 30.01.2015, 10:35
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Re: Gold Buying

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You have arbitrarily defined whenever "later" is, and arbitrarily decided that 80% preservation is "bad" by comparing it to a method of preservation that has fared "better" vis-a-vis a particular paper currency.

Does that make gold evil? Or the worst choice for wealth preservation? No, it only means that your arbitrarily selected outcome, deadline and relative difference (vis-a-vis other preservation options) aren't optimal — especially from an INVESTOR's point of view(!).

Preserving wealth differs from investing (for the umteenth time[!!]) in that gains and losses (vis-a-vis one or more paper currencies) at various times aren't as important as retention of a substantial measure of value. Those of you who see everything exclusively through investment-colored glasses tend to rate everything based on return, operating on the assumption that anything less than a positive return (particularly vis-a-vis a particular paper currency) is "bad."

Which is precisely where you err in pretending to understand the objective presumed mechanics of wealth preservation: You're always trying to redefine it in terms of investment and return on investment, which is NOT wealth preservation(!).



What exactly makes your paper currency- and investment-based "semantic games" superior to the so-called "semantic games" of the wealth preserver, who simply objects to arbitrary time constraints and paper currency comparisons?

I'm hardly convinced that I'm, the one that doesn't get it.
Well, you seem to be imagining a lot of things that I have said:

- I haven't defined when 'later' is. Wealth preservation means preserving primarily over time.
- I haven't compared it to paper currency

Maybe you can give an objective definition of what you mean by wealth preservation since it seems to be different to what 99% of people mean by wealth preservation?
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Old 30.01.2015, 11:36
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Re: Gold Buying

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- I haven't defined when 'later' is. Wealth preservation means preserving primarily over time.
Not naming exactly when 'later' is doesn't mean you're not picking a hypothetical — but distinct — point in time when your arbitrary performance figures apply. Whatever your hypothetical 'later' is meant to be, it's where you've arbitrarily decided to draw a line and judge performance. Sure, a gold owner may periodically compare the value of his stuff vis-a-vis a currency or some other store of wealth, but even comparing to a single currency doesn't remain an apples-to-apples proposition over time, due to inflation and other factors sliding currency values over time.

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- I haven't compared it to paper currency
Unless by 'purchasing power' you mean buying stuff directly with gold as the medium of exchange, I think you have. Otherwise what do 80%, 100% and 120% mean? Percentages of exactly what, if not value vis-a-vis a paper currency useful as a medium of exchange (purchasing)?

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Maybe you can give an objective definition of what you mean by wealth preservation since it seems to be different to what 99% of people mean by wealth preservation?
It's not at all clear where you got that '99%' figure. I'm going by common definitions of store of wealth/value (see, for example, here, here and here). I have yet to see a definition that requires before-and-after comparisons or arbitrarily selected performance-over-time analysis, instead of simply describing the expectation of some value being retained over time.

Maybe a real live example would help: Some years ago, my family needed to pay some unexpected bills. A store of wealth was tapped for liquidation for that purpose. The store of wealth had been purchased at a higher price (in dollars) than it was sold for. Meanwhile, the dollar had lost value against other currencies. There was no analysis of these things at the time of liquidation, no wringing of hands or wailing about performance. What mattered was that there was something on hand that could be converted for the use of paying the bills, and we were quite content with that. The store of wealth had served its purpose. Its only 'performance' was the retaining of some value — not more value, particularly vis-a-vis any particular instrument.
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  #972  
Old 30.01.2015, 12:00
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Re: Gold Buying

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Whatever your hypothetical 'later' is meant to be, it's where you've arbitrarily decided to draw a line and judge performance.
Erm. I've precisely haven't drawn an arbitrary line to avoid point-in-time comparisons.

One important attribute of a store of value is that it stores its value without significant downward fluctuations so that you can tap into that value at any point in time e.g. during an unexpected emergency.

If you need to store value for a specific point in time (e.g. retirement), then you might be able to tolerate volatility if you expect that at your specific point in time to be able to tap into your value.


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Otherwise what do 80%, 100% and 120% mean? Percentages of exactly what, if not value vis-a-vis a paper currency useful as a medium of exchange (purchasing)?
I mean the amount of wealth that has been stored by whatever wealth storing metric you've chosen. I've kept it abstract as you hadn't yet defined how to measure the storage of wealth.

Maybe to clarify, here is what I consider to be attributes of a good store of wealth:

1. Preservation of value That wealth converted to the storage medium retains its value such that when the storage medium is converted back to wealth, the quantum of wealth has not significantly diminished. The greater the wealth on conversion of the storage medium, the better the medium is considered as a store of wealth.

2. Stability of value The wealth realisable on conversion of the medium does not have significant downward fluctuations such as to hamper its function as a storage of wealth at any point in time (item #1). The fewer negative fluctuations, and the lower the amplitude of such negative fluctuations are, the better the medium is considered as a store of wealth.

3. Convertibility The store of wealth can be readily, quickly, easily and cheaply converted back to wealth. The more easily, cheaply and quickly the storage medium can be converted back to wealth and vice versa, the better it is considered as a store of wealth.

I don't know whether you agree with the above as a definition/attributes of storage of wealth. If not, then I suspect we are talking at cross-purposes.
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  #973  
Old 30.01.2015, 12:11
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Re: Gold Buying

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Maybe a real live example would help: Some years ago, my family needed to pay some unexpected bills. A store of wealth was tapped for liquidation for that purpose... What mattered was that there was something on hand that could be converted for the use of paying the bills... Its only 'performance' was the retaining of some value — not more
I'm not sure if you are trying to draw an arbitrary point where you say anything that does better than this is a store of value, and anything that does not. If so, I don't agree I consider that a store of value is not black or white, but a matter of degree so that something can be a better or worse store of value.

So to take your example, if your store of wealth was liquidated and could only be used to pay for 5% of the bills, then it would be a poorer store of value than a different store of value which would have paid 100% or 120% of the bills.

Otherwise, you could say that a barrel of kippers you buy for $100 is a store of value, sure after a few years they are pretty horrid, but maybe you could sell it for $1 so it has retained SOME value and so under your definition is a store of value.
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  #974  
Old 30.01.2015, 13:24
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Re: Gold Buying

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Erm. I've precisely haven't drawn an arbitrary line to avoid point-in-time comparisons...
So what exactly does 'later' mean then? How do you get percentages for comparison without stopping the clock to gather figures for your statistics? In any case, a snapshot of performance comparisons is just that, and not a proof or guarantee of the future.

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...One important attribute of a store of value is that it stores its value without significant downward fluctuations...
Can you cite a published definition that specifies the attribute "without significant downward fluctuations" as part of the definition??

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...you hadn't yet defined how to measure the storage of wealth...
That's the point. There's no need to measure unless and until liquidation is necessary, and then only for the purpose of executing the liquidation itself. Naturally it's desirable to have a minimum of downward fluctuations (significant or otherwise), but at liquidation time all that matters is overall durability — retention of value, not past fluctuations.

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...Maybe to clarify, here is what I consider to be attributes of a good store of wealth…

[snip]

…I don't know whether you agree with the above as a definition/attributes of storage of wealth. If not, then I suspect we are talking at cross-purposes.
The attributes you consider good are good and desirable, they just don't define store of wealth, to whatever extent they're not found in published definitions. They can't be predicted or guaranteed absolutely, and they can easily tend to start looking more like investment attributes.

I think we are only talking at cross-purposes to whatever extent you might wish to insist that attributes not included in published definitions are nevertheless necessary for defining store of wealth.


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...I consider that a store of value is not black or white, but a matter of degree so that something can be a better or worse store of value...
That's as may be, but you really won't know what it did, or what you'll be comparing it to, until such time as you want or need to liquidate it. By then, comparisons won't mean much, except for hindsight. If you're just keeping tabs, you'll still have to decide at 80% whether to switch vehicles or leave it alone, with no subsequent guarantee, regardless which choice you make.

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...So to take your example, if your store of wealth was liquidated and could only be used to pay for 5% of the bills, then it would be a poorer store of value than a different store of value which would have paid 100% or 120% of the bills...
Again, you really won't know what it did, or what you'll be comparing it to, until such time as you want or need to liquidate it. And again, by then, comparisons won't mean much, except for hindsight.

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...Otherwise, you could say that a barrel of kippers you buy for $100 is a store of value, sure after a few years they are pretty horrid, but maybe you could sell it for $1 so it has retained SOME value and so under your definition is a store of value.
The hyperbole notwithstanding, no doubt some choices can turn out to have been very poor stores of value. It's up to the individual to decide what seems a more durable choice, and why, and even then there's no guarantee.
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  #975  
Old 30.01.2015, 14:22
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Re: Gold Buying

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So what exactly does 'later' mean then? How do you get percentages for comparison without stopping the clock to gather figures for your statistics? In any case, a snapshot of performance comparisons is just that, and not a proof or guarantee of the future.
Later means at a future point in time. The percentages are to illustrate a comparison of success at preserving wealth (however you chose to evaluate that), not a specific calculation.

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That's the point. There's no need to measure unless and until liquidation is necessary, and then only for the purpose of executing the liquidation itself.
I didn't say there was a need to measure, but if you want to evaluate how different stores of wealth function as a store of wealth relative to each other, then you would need to measure/calculate/estimate to do so..

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Naturally it's desirable to have a minimum of downward fluctuations (significant or otherwise), but at liquidation time all that matters is overall durability — retention of value, not past fluctuations.
Yes, and the whole point of avoiding fluctuations is if you are unsure of the timing of the liquidation you don't want to be caught out.

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not past fluctuations
I'm not talking about past fluctuations, but profile of potential future fluctuations to understand the impact on potential future liquidations.

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The attributes you consider good are good and desirable, they just don't define store of wealth, to whatever extent they're not found in published definitions.
I would argue that together they do define a good store of wealth. I don't see how you would have a store of wealth at all without #1. Without #2 you don't have a reliable store of wealth. Without #3 you may not have #1 or #2 due to conversion costs or illiquidity preventing realising that store.

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They can't be predicted or guaranteed absolutely
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The hyperbole notwithstanding, no doubt some choices can turn out to have been very poor stores of value. It's up to the individual to decide what seems a more durable choice, and why, and even then there's no guarantee.
Which makes sense, since you don't know whether something will really be a store of value until you come to realise it.

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and they can easily tend to start looking more like investment attributes.
I'd say that investments and stores of wealth are really closely related and are different aspects of the same thing that lie on different parts of a continuum. Investments are more or less a store of wealth except with a relaxation of the #2 (as people may be willing to risk short term value against longer term value) and #3 (as investors may be willing to forgo some liquidity and transaction cost for future value) attributes.

In summary, I consider Investments and Store of (financial) Wealth to be similar things on a scale, with store of wealth emphasising attributes #2 and #3 potentially at the expense of #1.

Here I specify financial because in my original definition, I consider wealth in the widest sense of anything with value including financial value, but also political power, cultural influence etc.
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  #976  
Old 30.01.2015, 16:09
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Re: Gold Buying

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...I didn't say there was a need to measure, but if you want to evaluate how different stores of wealth function as a store of wealth relative to each other, then you would need to measure/calculate/estimate to do so...
You made a point of stating that I "hadn't yet defined how to measure the storage of wealth" — it was that to which I was responding.

You can talk endlessly about "evaluating how different stores of wealth function as a store of wealth relative to each other" and a "need to measure/calculate/estimate" but you'll never be able to predict or control with certainty the final outcome, and you'll probably be expending a great deal of time and energy trying to do so anyway — just like an investor.

Eventually you have to decide where you want to store your wealth and put it there. If you subsequently continue endlessly "evaluating how different stores of wealth function as a store of wealth relative to each other" and a "need to measure/calculate/estimate," then you're still acting like an investor, unable to sit still and trust your own original analysis and decision.

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...avoiding fluctuations...
…is hardly optional, either in investing or storing wealth, so why pretend otherwise?

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...I'm not talking about past fluctuations, but profile of potential future fluctuations to understand the impact on potential future liquidations...
Right, you're talking like an investor, constantly projecting and speculating, re-evaluating, second-guessing, perhaps prone to switching vehicles often and quickly. This discussion initially emerged in the context of a thread on 'Gold Buying' where some of us described our gold purchasing as a means of storing wealth/value, particularly apart from fiat currencies and their inherent risks. I have yet to meet anyone who does this, and then routinely "profiles potential future fluctuations to understand the impact on potential future liquidations." Instead, they've described themselves as in for the long haul, period.

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...I would argue that together they do define a good store of wealth...
Yes, and you have argued as much, twice now. I have not disputed the worthiness of the attributes you define collectively as defining a "good store of wealth" (which is a value judgment) — but I won't consent to your unilaterally changing the basic definition of "store of wealth" so that it must include your definition of a "good store of wealth." If somebody else wants to focus on other criteria, let him. His motivation, what he values, his perception of long-term trends may be different. Let him make his own choice.

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...I'd say that investments and stores of wealth are really closely related and are different aspects of the same thing that lie on different parts of a continuum...
That's pretty much been what you and the other investors have been saying — many times over. And apparently one of you must have the last word.

Suffice it to say that some of us, who would even agree with your conclusion in principle, nevertheless see and handle a store of wealth — particularly where fiat currency is being purposely avoided as a vehicle, and particularly in a long-term context — unlike any other "investment", i.e., without projection, further speculation, re-evaluating, second-guessing, switching vehicles, or profiling potential future fluctuations. We prefer to make our choices, and then spend our time and energy on anything but looking over our shoulder and punching calculator keys.

Is there some reason why we simply can't be allowed that???
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  #977  
Old 01.02.2015, 10:00
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Re: Gold Buying

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Eventually you have to decide where you want to store your wealth and put it there. If you subsequently continue endlessly "evaluating how different stores of wealth function as a store of wealth relative to each other" and a "need to measure/calculate/estimate," then you're still acting like an investor, unable to sit still and trust your own original analysis and decision.

Right, you're talking like an investor, constantly projecting and speculating, re-evaluating, second-guessing, perhaps prone to switching vehicles often and quickly. This discussion initially emerged in the context of a thread on 'Gold Buying' where some of us described our gold purchasing as a means of storing wealth/value, particularly apart from fiat currencies and their inherent risks. I have yet to meet anyone who does this, and then routinely "profiles potential future fluctuations to understand the impact on potential future liquidations." Instead, they've described themselves as in for the long haul, period.

Suffice it to say that some of us, who would even agree with your conclusion in principle, nevertheless see and handle a store of wealth — particularly where fiat currency is being purposely avoided as a vehicle, and particularly in a long-term context — unlike any other "investment", i.e., without projection, further speculation, re-evaluating, second-guessing, switching vehicles, or profiling potential future fluctuations. We prefer to make our choices, and then spend our time and energy on anything but looking over our shoulder and punching calculator keys.
You make a big fuss about analysis, but unless out of everything in the world, you randomly picked gold over cash, shares or kippers, then you did some analysis at some point to come to that decision.

The fact that you choose not to do further analysis doesn't change the nature of gold, no more than someone who constantly analyses the gold price (as many gold investors seem to actually do) would magically change gold from a store of wealth to and investment (under your definitions). But it seems to me that the difference is that I define store of wealth/investment by reference to the storage medium itself, whereas you define it by reference to the 'investor' behaviour - which I think could be the source of the clash.

However, the way you describe "buying to have some value in the future, without regularly analysing and ignoring fluctuations in between" is precisely described by the term "buy-and-hold investor".


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Yes, and you have argued as much, twice now. I have not disputed the worthiness of the attributes you define collectively as defining a "good store of wealth" (which is a value judgment) — but I won't consent to your unilaterally changing the basic definition of "store of wealth" so that it must include your definition of a "good store of wealth." If somebody else wants to focus on other criteria, let him. His motivation, what he values, his perception of long-term trends may be different. Let him make his own choice.
Well how bad can a store of wealth be until it is no longer considered a store of wealth by you? 1%? 5%? 10%? 50%?

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Is there some reason why we simply can't be allowed that???
No.
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  #978  
Old 13.02.2015, 18:49
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Re: Gold Buying

Looks like USD cash is King v Gold over the last year.
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Old 13.02.2015, 20:11
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Re: Gold Buying

The question begs to be asked... Why buy Gold bars?

If the economic climate changes enough that Gold becomes extremely valuable I would not be surprised if what happened in the US in the 1930s (not sure about the date) happens again. I.E the federal reserve issues a law or whatever that all gold is to be returned to the reserve.

If it was me I would be buying crappy gold rings etc and melting it to create my own bars and nobody will know you have it. That is the best way to strore gold long term.

But what do I know. I opted for Art classes at school instead of economics. Those art classes were brilliant!
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Old 13.02.2015, 20:16
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Re: Gold Buying

http://www.englishforum.ch/attachmen...3-18.45.45.png

What kind of car is the red and what car is the blue. Ahh I get it one is power and one is torque... snif.
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