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  #1061  
Old 13.02.2016, 16:38
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Re: Gold Buying

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So don't hold cash, hold stocks rather than gold.
Stocks are just more paper. When the currencies they're based on go south, so do they. (But by all means, go ahead and ignore history — you sure won't be the first to not learn from it.)
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Old 13.02.2016, 16:42
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Re: Gold Buying

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Last time I looked the stock markets were in free fall.
Why not look back 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 years v gold, your looking over less than 2 months. I am sure I will get the last laugh an many in between over the next 30 years.
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Stocks are just more paper. When the currencies they're based on go south, so do they. (But by all means, go ahead and ignore history — you sure won't be the first to not learn from it.)
Stocks are not 'paper' they are fraction ownership of companies & their future earnings. Gold produces nothing, I don't think you understand the benefits of compound returns which is the issue here.
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  #1063  
Old 13.02.2016, 17:04
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Re: Gold Buying

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...I am sure I will get the last laugh an many in between over the next 30 years...
History says otherwise.

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Stocks are not 'paper' they are fraction ownership of companies & their future earnings...
…in fiat paper currencies.

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...I don't think you understand the benefits of compound returns which is the issue here.
No, it's not "the issue here" — you just want it to be. I've already explained multiple times in this very thread that "Gold Buying" doesn't have to be about what you criticize it for not being.
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  #1064  
Old 13.02.2016, 17:11
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Re: Gold Buying

I guess it depends how well things stack up against currency debasement.

Obviously holding cash you are fully exposed.

Sticking it in an interest-bearing account gives you some interest, but probably not enough to maintain its value (and on top of that you are subject to counter-party risk)

Gold has traditionally held some value over time - even if it is a hassle and can be quite volatile

Stocks, I don't know. Given that it is ultimately a share in a business with tangible assets and growth, it should keep up (depending on management).

Last edited by Phil_MCR; 13.02.2016 at 19:21.
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  #1065  
Old 13.02.2016, 19:05
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Re: Gold Buying

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History says otherwise.



…in fiat paper currencies.



No, it's not "the issue here" — you just want it to be. I've already explained multiple times in this very thread that "Gold Buying" doesn't have to be about what you criticize it for not being.
Profits will be higher if currency is debased, or lower if currency strengthens, this directly effects the stock price as shown by the Swiss Franc when the peg was abandoned.

What I love is being given financial advise by people who need a day job to live, I find it funny that people go to see their financial advisors in Wall St in a chauffeur driven Rolls Royce, the advisor took the Metro to work. You could not make it up.
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  #1066  
Old 14.02.2016, 00:11
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Re: Gold Buying

If you buy gold check below your motive:

To make a profit.
As a form of saving
For diversification.
As insurance
To hide from the government
All of the above

Last edited by Trickyt57; 14.02.2016 at 00:23.
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  #1067  
Old 14.02.2016, 08:27
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Re: Gold Buying

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If you buy gold check below your motive:

To make a profit.
As a form of saving
For diversification.
As insurance
To hide from the government
All of the above
Thank you for a well thought out list.

Personally, I would have liked to see the motive "To hide from the government" worded more positively, maybe as "To maintain ones privacy from prying eyes".

PS It is not 'from government' alone, but also from bank employees who would 'see' the transaction if purchases were recorded at the bank.
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  #1068  
Old 16.02.2016, 14:58
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Re: Gold Buying

http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/02/kyle-bass-china/?all=1
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  #1069  
Old 18.02.2016, 23:50
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Re: Gold Buying

very interesting read, seems to have the potential of that series 'The Walking Dead' OH is glued to. Isn't China supposed to become part of IMF currency basket later this year? didn't they buy 25% of the world's 2015 gold production for strength? maybe that's why the Chinese have been buying many hotels in the Jungfrau region?
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  #1070  
Old 04.03.2016, 05:46
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Re: Gold Buying

It's now 'official'. ZH has confirmed it !!

Gold Enters Bull Market
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  #1071  
Old 04.03.2016, 22:01
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Re: Gold Buying

As posted in another thread Blackrock have pulled their (paper) gold ETF.

Their reason is that so far this year people are buying and not selling so they will have to create more shares (?).

According to zerohedge "It appears the huge demand for physical gold (and lack of supply) is finally catching up with the manipulation of paper prices.

If this is anything other than a brief technical suspension, it could well unleash panic-buying as we already pointed out - there is no physical gold!" Source.

If I understand the article correctly there are now 542 ounces of "paper gold" for every real ounce of deliverable gold!

For years the average was around 10 to 20 ounces of "paper gold" for every real ounce of deliverable gold!

The words fan and shit come to mind.
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  #1072  
Old 04.03.2016, 22:30
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Re: Gold Buying

It was over 200 to 1 most of last year.

Texaner made some good points. But zome fat heads will never 'get' it.
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  #1073  
Old 04.03.2016, 22:36
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Re: Gold Buying

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If you buy gold check below your motive:

To make a profit.
As a form of saving
For diversification.
As insurance (this this this)
To hide from the government
All of the above
Physical precious metals are beyond compare when it comes to hedging against currency collapse.

Of course I still will keep shares in Swiss blue chips.

That mailbox money has to come from somewhere.

If, and thats a very big, if the big reset happens, I need seed corn to restart and buy when pretty good stocks lose 95 percent of their value.
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  #1074  
Old 01.04.2016, 21:35
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Re: Gold Buying

Central banks bought a net 483 tonnes of gold in 2015; the second highest annual purchase since the end of the Gold standard.

Biggest buyers were Russia and China.

Interesting that Russia spends so much on gold when their currency has fallen so much against the dollar.

Wonder what their rationale is?
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Old 01.04.2016, 22:30
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Re: Gold Buying

Unfortunatley I'm not close to any of the Russian decision makers.

Having said that, there is plenty of talk of hyper-inflation at the moment.

If a reset happens, e.g. in October, you better have some shiney shiney if you want to make out like a Bandit.
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  #1076  
Old 02.04.2016, 06:55
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Re: Gold Buying

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Central banks bought a net 483 tonnes of gold in 2015; the second highest annual purchase since the end of the Gold standard.

Biggest buyers were Russia and China.

Interesting that Russia spends so much on gold when their currency has fallen so much against the dollar.

Wonder what their rationale is?
Occasionally, though seldom, I witness things that make so much good sense that I'm relieved to see that not all of the world's economists are as yet not been certified as complete idiots.
Russia in not trying to 'correct' the exchange rate to the dollar is one such item.
Russia is a very large fairly self-sufficient country which is able to meet a fair amount of its own production needs. And where the means of production were not present a change in exchange rates (or embargoes) will tend to bring about a correction. For instance, Russia has in only a few years become a major producer and exporter of wheat. And not just any old wheat but non-GMO wheat. Since AFAIK all American grain products incl. wheat (The US is the major competitor in wheat production) are genetically modified Russia has most probably got a winner here.*)
Much, much better for Russia was their decision IMO to stabilise their monetary system by building-up reserves in the only true 'money' gold. And a money their major trade partner China also accepts.
Not only that but without doing anything about the exchange rate the Rouble has since the beginning of the year recovered some 23% against the dollar. Not only that but the US (and EU) have been doing some really hair-brained things in recent years to REDUCE their exchange rates, but it should be noted largely unsuccessfully.

*)[Although that affects me little as I eat no wheat.]
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Old 04.04.2016, 00:15
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Re: Gold Buying

For the people of Russia gold does nothing, people do not buy gold in Russia.
Gold is the ultimate mobile assets since 1000s of years to protect the Family against system failures.
The Central Bank never will give you this if you want to pay somthin..
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Old 05.04.2016, 14:46
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Re: Gold Buying

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Occasionally, though seldom, I witness things that make so much good sense that I'm relieved to see that not all of the world's economists are as yet not been certified as complete idiots.
Russia in not trying to 'correct' the exchange rate to the dollar is one such item.
Russia is a very large fairly self-sufficient country which is able to meet a fair amount of its own production needs. And where the means of production were not present a change in exchange rates (or embargoes) will tend to bring about a correction. For instance, Russia has in only a few years become a major producer and exporter of wheat. And not just any old wheat but non-GMO wheat. Since AFAIK all American grain products incl. wheat (The US is the major competitor in wheat production) are genetically modified Russia has most probably got a winner here.*)
Much, much better for Russia was their decision IMO to stabilise their monetary system by building-up reserves in the only true 'money' gold. And a money their major trade partner China also accepts.
Not only that but without doing anything about the exchange rate the Rouble has since the beginning of the year recovered some 23% against the dollar. Not only that but the US (and EU) have been doing some really hair-brained things in recent years to REDUCE their exchange rates, but it should be noted largely unsuccessfully.

*)[Although that affects me little as I eat no wheat.]
"about the exchange rate the Rouble has since the beginning of the year recovered some 23% against the dollar. "

Of course the "beginning of the year" can have various meanings.
If, for example we look at 1st Jan when the US$ bought 73 roubles versus today when the US$ buys only 69 then we do not see much recovery.

The reality is the rouble tends to follow the oil price since oil and gas are the two major sources of income for Russia (do not ask me why the rouble does not follow gas prices which are more in the cellar than oil, I do not know).

It is not an exact relationship but the trend is there.

At the moment oil prices have risen versus their extreme lows which benefits the rouble.
Why oil prices have risen defies logic. The points against such an oil price rise are.
  • We are entering the summer months when demand declines
  • Iran is entering the post-sanction market so increasing supply.
  • The US shale oil producers despite low prices are still churning out a lot of oil
  • Worldwide the oil reserve tanks are full.

The only support for increased oil prices are statements from Saudi, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar about keeping production static or even reducing.
But are these statements true?
OPEC is producing around 32 million barrels a day (even in March 2016) which is close to their all time high in 2008.
Russia’s oil output set a post-Soviet high in March 2016
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  #1079  
Old 05.04.2016, 16:09
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Re: Gold Buying

Thats often forgotten, spare parts, consumables and instruments to buy, unlike in the 90s for the running of the oil and gas industry are traded in 2/3 in Russian rubles. The depreciation of the ruble help Russian entrepreneurs to run their companies.

In Shanghai (Gold Exchange), there is a gold market where you can finance in a Chinese currency. The Banks can put their gold (leasing) and do get CNY for short term finance. I suspect the financing of many deals in the future trade between Russia and China will move via this exchange
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Old 05.04.2016, 19:00
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Re: Gold Buying

Can I provide an alternative end-of-the-world protection scheme for those interested in diversifying from the potential pitfalls of physical gold (even with it's long track record of safe haven, one cannot be too careful):

1. Learn the trade of safe construction.
2. Stock up on weapons and ammo.
3. Learn basic survival skills, bushcraft and farming.

I know this sounds a bit nutty, but bear with me here, there is a point coming. See, the principal issue with physical gold is storage. Where do we put them darn shiny bricks? This question will be asked by any new gold owner, irrespective of when and how they lay their hands on the yellow metal. After the end-times hit, there'll be a market for safes, coming from guys who just acquired large quantities and need a safe. You can relieve them of some of their loot this way.

The next item on the list is important because if things go to pot and the fiat currencies collapse, stocks lose their value the economy implodes, people are going to have what is colloquially known as a Bad Time (TM). There'll be widespread disorder. The thing with these sort of disorders is that it's impossible to say how big they are going to get. Under those cases, humans were historically prone to resort to Bad Behavior (TM). There'll be looting, riots and destruction. There'll very likely be famine as the agricultural industry that we are so reliant on breaks down. There's no chance the population can switch to locally sourced food en masse, nevermind that the farmer was run over by a fire engine after the corn field was accidentally set on fire.

Under these circumstances, there's historically very clear evidence on what is going to happen to you irrespective of your predisposition to safeguard yourself with gold:

1. A bunch of angry dudes, armed to the teeth with assault weapons turns up at your doorstep.
2. They demand all food and supplies. They generously let you keep your gold because it is heavy as hell and doesn't provide a nourishing meal.
3. Kill you stone dead, just to avoid the eventuality of you having vengeful thoughts.

It is then clear that you'll want to be able to sell safes to the angry dudes, but you also want to discourage them from carrying out steps 1-3 against you.

Finally, basic survival skills always come handy in case you run out of bullets, there are no clients for your safes and the mob is marching on your house. You know, the kind of situation to what the saying "discretion is the better part of valor" has been invented for.
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