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  #21  
Old 03.06.2011, 15:42
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Re: Game show problem

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Initially it's a 1:3 chance of winning. Then with choice C being eliminated, the odds have gone up to 1:2. The maneuver of eliminating C makes you second guess your choice, and therefore the odds of choosing incorrectly by picking B goes up.

Stick with A.
That's wrong. See clip of film...

You're assumption of a 50:50 chance is wrong, because the game show host doesn't reveal the empty box by chance. He chooses what he knows to be empty. If the gameshow host had chosen to reveal the contents of another box by chance, then yes the odds would be 50:50.
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  #22  
Old 03.06.2011, 15:43
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Re: Game show problem

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That's wrong. See clip of film...
Well then. As I used to say in Algebra II... "I don't get it!"
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  #23  
Old 03.06.2011, 15:53
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Re: Game show problem

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Well then. As I used to say in Algebra II... "I don't get it!"
I've only just got it...

Choice 1:
Box A: 33.3%
Box B: 33.3%
Box C: 33.3%

I choose Box A, so have a 33% chance of being right, 66% chance of the car being in Boxes BC.

Host tells/shows me that Box C is empty... he deliberately chose Box C as he knew it was empty.

That means that based purely on the odds:

Box A: 33.3%
Box BC:66.6%

(note C is crossed out!)

Now which box would you choose?
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  #24  
Old 03.06.2011, 16:56
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Re: Game show problem

The probability of getting the right box is always 50%. Either you get the right one, or you don't. Heads or tails. 50/50.
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Old 03.06.2011, 17:00
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Re: Game show problem

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The probability of getting the right box is always 50%. Either you get the right one, or you don't. Heads or tails. 50/50.
yeah. just like the euromillions. but i've had a bit of an unlucky streak...
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