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  #61  
Old 21.08.2011, 22:12
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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My feeling regarding Switzerland and the currency is that when Euroland decided to depart from its hard currency course and to buy junk bonds from its member states, Switzerland found itself out in the cold. When the Euro started it was intended (by Germany who called the shots then) that it would be a hard currency as was the D-Mark. For political reasons this is no longer so. In the old days Switzerland had lived comfortably in the shadow of its big neighbour to the north and kept the Franc within a close exchange rate range to the D-Mark and was happy to do so. Now the CHF is the only hard currency worldwide except for the Yen maybe. The trouble is Switzerland is too small and will have and is having trouble to control its own currency. I see the possibility of troubling times for the country and its currency.
So far there are causes but no symptoms!! For example, unemployment rates here are half those in eurozone. I think the troubling times suggested are still some way off.
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Old 21.08.2011, 22:36
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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So far there are causes but no symptoms!! For example, unemployment rates here are half those in eurozone. I think the troubling times suggested are still some way off.
Tectonic plates are meeting head on, stresses and temperatures are building! When does the earthquake come?
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Old 22.08.2011, 10:59
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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I see the possibility of troubling times for the country and its currency.
The troubling times will start when the swiss realise that (1) loss of jobs will come from a 'global' slowdown, hence exports will weaken regardless of currency, and the (2) inflation which the SNB is about to create.

The EURO for example is very weak, yet germany is still slowing.

Last edited by Lex; 22.08.2011 at 11:40.
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Old 22.08.2011, 11:11
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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The troubling times will start when the swiss realise that loss of jobs will come from a (1) 'global' slowdown, hence exports will weaken regardless of currency, and the (2) inflation which the SNB is about to create.

The EURO for example is very weak, yet germany is still slowing.
This is one of the reasons why I'm hesitant to buy property in CH. Buying means giving up flexibility in case jobs are lost and there are no chances to land a new one. With renting I can now pack up and leave anywhere within a couple of days. Not so easy with a mortgage.
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Old 22.08.2011, 12:04
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

When we bought our place about 5 years ago, there was almost nothing to choose from. Now we are surrounded by newly constructed apartments buildings, both for sale and for rent, that sit half empty.
They are trying to sell apartments down the street from us for 200,000 more than we paid for our similar place. I can't comment on the whole of Switzerland, but for a little town without even a train station, Krippe, or grocery store, I'd say that's a pretty hefty increase.
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Old 22.08.2011, 12:33
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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The only people that got it right more times than not have been the fabulously rich partners at Goldman Sachs.
They got it right for Goldman Sachs themselves and their personal bonuses but not their clients over the last few years.
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  #67  
Old 22.08.2011, 12:44
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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They got it right for Goldman Sachs themselves and their personal bonuses but not their clients over the last few years.
Indeed, it is as easy as buying treasuries and then selling them back to the feds, at a higher price. If the public actually knew how easy it has been swindled they would go on a rampage.
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  #68  
Old 22.08.2011, 13:01
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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They got it right for Goldman Sachs themselves and their personal bonuses but not their clients over the last few years.
It's no longer a partnership, the money made by the current Boys is not in the same league. They are in business to make money for themselves & their shareholders, I don't think many companies business plan extend to making money for their clients.
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Old 22.08.2011, 13:03
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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The EURO for example is very weak, yet germany is still slowing.
The Euro is actually very strong V the $ / GBP, it's not weak at all.
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Old 22.08.2011, 13:14
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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I still think that Switzerland is one of the best places in the world to weather the next 20 years of global change so I am sticking with it.
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I have been here for 17 years, when USD was worth 1.80 CHF & GBP was worth 2.6 CHF, salaries & the cost of living here was not high. It's only been like it for a short period of time, you should not assume it will always be so.
I am not personally that interested in the cost of living, the value of the USD or the GBP or the size of salaries when they are analysed in isolation or mashed together and used as instruments of "Doom" or "Boom".

I am far more interested in the sustainability and life quaility that can be experienced in the country that I settle in and choose to integrate into.

If you look back at my statement you will notice the word think, which I used to indicate that some actual thought had gone into my decision, not just an assumption. Analysis, some trending, some gut instinct and a little bit of stats, math and architectural analysis and planning were done.

You will also notice the comment, weather the next 20 years of global change. I would not personally put money on anything improving anywhere anytime soon. Things are going to get worse, in some places drastically, in some places less. Some places are better situated to deal with any upcomming problems and no I am not just talking about commercial or financial problems. So, no, I am not assuming anything about all time into all eternity in the future without any constraints and ooohhh, look, butterflies. I don't really think like that.

For me what really wrapped it up was talking to a up and comming biotech guy last night. He said, "Us Swiss have nothing ... you know in the soil or the ground ... no natural resources. All we have is our brains and a great desire to learn to and to actually use them."

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The troubling times will start when the swiss realise that (1) loss of jobs will come from a 'global' slowdown, hence exports will weaken regardless of currency, and the (2) inflation which the SNB is about to create.
The EURO for example is very weak, yet germany is still slowing.
The trouble has started already. Now is the time to start making plans. You don't think that the Swiss economy can suck up a little bit of a job loss. The Swiss economy has been in recession for two years now I believe and nobody is panicing yet, just making plans and trying to figure out how it will all be solved.
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Indeed, it is as easy as buying treasuries and then selling them back to the feds, at a higher price. If the public actually knew how easy it has been swindled they would go on a rampage.
You would not be suggesting that it is all the banker's fault would you?
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  #71  
Old 22.08.2011, 13:24
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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You would not be suggesting that it is all the banker's fault would you?
Um no. The fed in that case is the buyer.
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Old 22.08.2011, 13:34
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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Um no. The fed in that case is the buyer.
Okay, I was just trying to figure out who the rampage was going to go against. I am still a bit confused.
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  #73  
Old 22.08.2011, 13:38
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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The Euro is actually very strong V the $ / GBP, it's not weak at all.
Cheers for the correction. I meant to just say that exports there are slowing as is the economy also - trying to find links now.


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Okay, I was just trying to figure out who the rampage was going to go against. I am still a bit confused.
The fed is the buyer, and they are getting the money from zeroes on keyboards to pay for it.
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Old 22.08.2011, 14:01
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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They got it right for Goldman Sachs themselves and their personal bonuses but not their clients over the last few years.
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Indeed, it is as easy as buying treasuries and then selling them back to the feds, at a higher price. If the public actually knew how easy it has been swindled they would go on a rampage.
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The fed is the buyer, and they are getting the money from zeroes on keyboards to pay for it.
Sorry it is just me being stupid here!

So, you guys are saying that GS bought loads of treasuries from the feds and then sold them back to the feds at a higher price so that they could get big profits but thier customers did not make any money on the deal (the last bit especially is a bit blurry for me and confusing), and this is going to make the public (I could not figure out which public but I sort of inferred U.S.A.) go on a rampage?

I was especially confused about how this influenced the housing price here. I see after a bit of a re-read that nobody was implying it it (whew).
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Old 22.08.2011, 14:31
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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Sorry it is just me being stupid here!
Indeed its getting off topic here and im quite enjoying the thread and opinions. That said, it should be noted that outside economic forces can certainly affect housing prices here. Thats it from my end
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Old 22.08.2011, 21:43
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New build property in London has fallen 21% YOY!
London's immune from falls bullshit finally comes unstuck, & that's with a low £ and low interest rates.

http://www.ftadviser.com/FTAdviser/M...-in-London.jsp
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Old 22.08.2011, 22:20
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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This is one of the reasons why I'm hesitant to buy property in CH. Buying means giving up flexibility in case jobs are lost and there are no chances to land a new one. With renting I can now pack up and leave anywhere within a couple of days. Not so easy with a mortgage.
same here. slow down and debt-deflation were my biggest worries, but then i went and did it anyway. just need to survive the next few years now...
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Old 22.08.2011, 22:23
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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It does not really matter if the loans do not shrink with price falls so long as interest rates are low. The issue comes when when it is time to sell & pay off the loan or when interest rates rise.

Defensive strategies are to lock in low interest rates long term (2% or less for 10 years are possible) & to rent rather than sell (so long as you have locked in low interest rates long term & can consequently rent at a competitive price without losing money).
that's my strategy. i've locked in a low rate for 10 years and counting on the SNB's inflationary policies to do its work. however, i suspect 10 years may not be long enough...
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  #79  
Old 22.08.2011, 22:30
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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New build property in London has fallen 21% YOY!
London's immune from falls bullshit finally comes unstuck, & that's with a low £ and low interest rates.

http://www.ftadviser.com/FTAdviser/M...-in-London.jsp
Good. Most of the new builds are shockingly bad quality. Maybe they'll start to put more effort into them so they can sell them easier, or give up and let people spread out a bit.
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Old 23.08.2011, 17:35
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Re: Experts predict the housing bubble is about to burst

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The only people that got it right more times than not have been the fabulously rich partners at Goldman Sachs.
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They got it right for Goldman Sachs themselves and their personal bonuses but not their clients over the last few years.
Just like smaller financial con artists that do the same.
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