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  #181  
Old 02.01.2012, 17:26
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

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I work at the cantonal bank
And your location says Zurich. Can anyone guess which one?
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  #182  
Old 02.01.2012, 17:37
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

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I work at the cantonal bank, bonuses are still very healthy at senior management level and the top performing traders always do well (even though this year hasn't been that great). I'm inclined to say the drop in salaries in the banking sector has been exaggerated for Switzerland at least. I get the same vibe from friends who work at big banks throughout the country.
I always thought the bonus's at Swiss banks were chichen feed compared to the most sucessful tarders at Goldman Sachs.
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  #183  
Old 03.01.2012, 01:25
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This article in Tages Anzeiger says that half of small Swiss banks this year will report a loss:
http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/mobileap...ory/17982063/4

There is more pessimism there as well.
I've heard that as Zurich is the seat of the two major banks, it is Geneva where many of the small banks are located.
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  #184  
Old 03.01.2012, 03:55
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

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This article in Tages Anzeiger says that half of small Swiss banks this year will report a loss:
http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/mobileap...ory/17982063/4

There is more pessimism there as well.
I've heard that as Zurich is the seat of the two major banks, it is Geneva where many of the small banks are located.
Yeah, but the story (which has its non-mobile link here: http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/wirtscha...story/17982063) continues to quote some analysts who say that in Geneva there are actually private banks worth their money.
The assumption (and probably the reality) is that a lot of banks in Zurich and Geneva just milked money of tax-evaders from Germany and other countries.
With all the bilateral agreements in place, this business will disappear rather sooner than later.
Those customers will no longer accept high fees for a portfolio that just follows the ups and downs of the stock-indices (who needs a broker to achieve that anyway?). They can have that at home if they buy the stuff from their local Sparkasse ;-)
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  #185  
Old 05.01.2012, 12:58
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

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In their last Immo Monitor (12/2011), Credit Suisse sees the situation in Geneva as bubblish:
And from one recent UBS magazine (don't think it's been quoted yet in the 10 pages of this thread)--

House prices continue to rise....In Q2 2011, prices increased for the 35th time since 2000....Prices vary significantly between the major regions. Sincle family homes in the Lake Geneva region have risen by 111 percent since 2000. That is more than 4 times higher than in the regions of Bern, Eastern, Northwestern and Western Switzerland, and twice the rise recorded in Zurich.

From the bar chart (since 2000): Lake Geneva 111%, Zurich 56%, overall Switzerland 42%, Southern CH 39%, Central CH 38%, Western CH 30%, NW CH 29%, Eastern CH 25%, Bern 26%.
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  #186  
Old 05.01.2012, 13:37
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

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And from one recent UBS magazine (don't think it's been quoted yet in the 10 pages of this thread)--

House prices continue to rise....In Q2 2011, prices increased for the 35th time since 2000....Prices vary significantly between the major regions. Sincle family homes in the Lake Geneva region have risen by 111 percent since 2000. That is more than 4 times higher than in the regions of Bern, Eastern, Northwestern and Western Switzerland, and twice the rise recorded in Zurich.

From the bar chart (since 2000): Lake Geneva 111%, Zurich 56%, overall Switzerland 42%, Southern CH 39%, Central CH 38%, Western CH 30%, NW CH 29%, Eastern CH 25%, Bern 26%.
According to NAEF people, in the arc lemanique the rise has come to a halt with the crisis as from September 2011 on, and prices are sliding sideways since...
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  #187  
Old 05.01.2012, 21:05
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@runningdear post:
I wonder what were the price differences in absolute terms between Zurich greater area and the Geneva lake area? Maybe the lake region was underdeveloped then and now, due to aggressive tax deals of canton Vaud with numerous companies in recent years, it has changed?
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  #188  
Old 05.01.2012, 21:54
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

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@runningdear post:
I wonder what were the price differences in absolute terms between Zurich greater area and the Geneva lake area? Maybe the lake region was underdeveloped then and now, due to aggressive tax deals of canton Vaud with numerous companies in recent years, it has changed?
Likely the case. When I first arrived to CH in ~1995 for a temporary appointment, I remember that Geneva & Vaud were just the sick cantons of Switzerland, they were just coming out of a long recession caused by decreasing manufacturing/production which was the core business here during the 80's. This also explains the high unemployment rate in Geneva - most of the Portuguese/Spanish etc folks here in their 60's came to work as unskilled (or lowly skilled) workforce for manufacturing. But Geneva has completely changed focus since.
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  #189  
Old 18.01.2012, 20:46
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

Eight reasons against considering real estate a safe investment - a very interesting article in today's Neue Zuercher Zeitung:

http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/wirtsc....14398893.html
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  #190  
Old 18.01.2012, 20:52
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

Tages Anzeiger also talks about the same subject:

"
Immer mehr Leute werden ihre Eigenheime verkaufen müssen"



http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/wirtscha...story/25536246
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  #191  
Old 18.01.2012, 21:23
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

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Not sure if EF is representative enough, but I see more and more posts like "just landed in CH gotta job for me any kind ok" and the "oh, are 200K gross enough for my me+butler+ferrari" kind of posts are going downwards (albeit not completely disappearing.. )
I never said I had a butler, stop exaggerating
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  #192  
Old 18.01.2012, 21:40
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

What colour that Ferrari then? Come on, give us a croggy
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  #193  
Old 18.01.2012, 21:50
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

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The 1% is for amortization. The other 1% for repairs is used to calculate affordability. However, you are not obliged to spend that 1% if you have no repairs to make. It is recommended you keep it on hand for bigger repairs down the line. But, again, it's not obligatory in any way.

You are obliged to pay 1% per year until you've paid off 60/65%, depending on your bank/loan conditions, etc. After that you can keep paying or you can pay interest only. It's up to you. You can also pay more if you want to. 1% is the minimum.
If people only look to pay off a little of the principle as possible then they are entirely dependent on the market to earn a profit.

I'm looking at the numbers now, one of the things I'm also trying to figure out is if to wait or not. I am planning to pay more than the 1% minimum principle plus interest to build equity. I'm planning to pay close to my rent rather than pay a mortgaged rent, and hope prices go up
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  #194  
Old 18.01.2012, 21:51
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

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What colour that Ferrari then? Come on, give us a croggy
There really is only one true color for a Ferrari, and it ain't yellow
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  #195  
Old 18.01.2012, 21:53
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

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Come on, give us a croggy
And what exactly is a croggy ?
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  #196  
Old 18.01.2012, 22:31
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

so you are not from t'north of UK then?

croggy [ˈkrɒgɪ]n pl croggies Northern and Midland English dialect a ride on a bicycle as a passenger give us a croggy!
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  #197  
Old 19.01.2012, 10:03
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

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Tages Anzeiger also talks about the same subject:

Immer mehr Leute werden ihre Eigenheime verkaufen müssen"

http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/wirtscha...story/25536246
If I trust google translate, this is worrying: prices are likely to fall if the euro crisis worsenes (less jobs -> less immigration) or if economy recovers (higher interest rates)... let's see where we are in 1-2 years...
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  #198  
Old 19.01.2012, 15:02
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

don't trust google translate too much:-)

It actually says that as long as the debt crisis continues and the world economy keeps struggling, we will have low interest rates in Switzerland and will we see no end to the (real estate) boom." (Solange die Schuldenkrise anhält und die Weltkonjunktur lahmt, werden wir in der Schweiz tiefe Zinsen haben und damit auch kein Ende des Booms sehen).
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  #199  
Old 19.01.2012, 16:42
gva
 
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

I know you belong to the home owners category with the credo "prices won't fall"...

well, in the interview you can also read that

"What could cause an opposite movement in the Swiss real estate market?
In the following scenario: The debt crisis worsens, and Switzerland turns into recession. In the worst case, then unemployment will rise substantially, and more and more people will be forced to sell their home. Then the prices will fall. "

original text:

"Was könnte eine gegenläufige Bewegung im Schweizer Immobilienmarkt auslösen?
Folgendes Szenario: Die Schuldenkrise verschärft sich, und die Schweiz kommt in eine Rezession. Im schlimmsten Fall steigt dann hierzulande auch die Arbeitslosigkeit stark an, und immer mehr Menschen werden ihr Eigenheim verkaufen müssen. Dann werden auch die Preise fallen."

but we can all trust the crisis won't worsen..
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  #200  
Old 19.01.2012, 16:46
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Re: Housing bubble about to explode in the Arc Lemanique

And further down it also says


What risks do you see when the debt crisis is resolved and the economy recovers?
If the economy should start in the quarters ahead, then prices will rise from an already high level of continuing. Then property values ​​could get in Switzerland into an overheating phase. With a continuing economic boom combined with concerns about inflation, the Swiss National Bank would have to raise interest rates to cool the economy. If the interest raise rates too quickly and too strongly, this would have a negative impact on the Swiss property market in the form of falling prices.


Welche Risiken sehen Sie, wenn die Schuldenkrise gelöst wird und die Wirtschaft sich erholt?
Wenn die Wirtschaft in den nächsten Quartalen wieder anspringen sollte, dann steigen die Preise von einem bereits hohen Niveau aus weiter an. Dann könnten Immobilienwerte schweizweit in eine Überhitzungsphase geraten. Bei einem andauernden Wirtschaftsboom gepaart mit allfälligen Inflationssorgen müsste die Schweizerische Nationalbank dann die Zinsen erhöhen, um die Wirtschaft abzukühlen. Werden die Zinsen zu rasch und zu stark angehoben, so hätte dies auch negative Auswirkungen auf den Schweizer Immobilienmarkt in Form von sinkenden Preisen.



so in the very short term, enjoy increases, but make sure you sell before prices go down
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