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Old 16.12.2013, 17:25
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Where is the housing market going...?

Thought we might start a thread on where the housing market is going. I mean apartments/houses for sale. Thoughts, anyone?

Are we in a bubble? Are prices going to keep rising?

I'm more interested in the single house market near Geneva but I guess anyone can add their thoughts on apartments

To get us started on the discussion, I've talked to a few agents and they say:

a. The banks did put the brakes on which affected the first half of this year.
b. The banks have eased up on the brakes in the second half of this year, giving out more mortgages.
c. There is no sign of a bubble.
d. prices are moving down.
e. There is a growing supply of houses.
f. I see a large number of apartments being built in my region, which might create an over-supply.
g. The French are moving in but immigration is not rising as it was.
h. People are moving out of Geneva to towns like Nyon.

Over to you...
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Old 16.12.2013, 17:31
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

One answer is that perhaps the market = lots of different markets depending on location. Some areas with very expensive prices seem to be stagnating and even going down- and at the same time, areas a bit further away, where prices have been lower, are now beginning to go up. LOL, I do not live in either of the above.
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Old 16.12.2013, 17:32
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

Oh god not another one!
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Old 16.12.2013, 17:46
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

I would say there is no such thing as a "housing market", rather a market for your house (or the one you are considering to buy).

If the "Object" is within 45 minutes commute of a major job center (Bern, Basel, Geneva, Zurich, Zug, Luzern), is sunny, quiet, within walking distance of schools and shops, is conveniently served by public transportation and/or major motorway, and has been built since 1980, then the market looks very good. The population of Switzerland is projected to grow to 10 million, and that's where they will want to live, so the demand will be there.

If the object does not meet any one of these criteria, the outlook is risky at best. My 2 rappens worth.
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Old 16.12.2013, 18:09
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

Please come back once the Swiss will vote on this topic: http://www.admin.ch/ch/d//pore/vi/vis406t.html
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Old 16.12.2013, 20:00
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

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I would say there is no such thing as a "housing market", rather a market for your house (or the one you are considering to buy).

If the "Object" is within 45 minutes commute of a major job center (Bern, Basel, Geneva, Zurich, Zug, Luzern), is sunny, quiet, within walking distance of schools and shops, is conveniently served by public transportation and/or major motorway, and has been built since 1980, then the market looks very good. The population of Switzerland is projected to grow to 10 million, and that's where they will want to live, so the demand will be there.

If the object does not meet any one of these criteria, the outlook is risky at best. My 2 rappens worth.
I think that was the case until recently- but things are changing. The above are now priced too high- and there is a definite sideways movement taking place.
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Old 16.12.2013, 20:07
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

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I think that was the case until recently- but things are changing. The above are now priced too high- and there is a definite sideways movement taking place.

Property is worth what a bank will lend 80% on! If banks tighten prices fall quite sharply, however very few sales occur so people pretend the market moved sideways when it dropped. Geneva prices fell 25%
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Old 16.12.2013, 20:17
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

Hmm yes- but people have also made the definite decision to travel a bit further, where prices are lower, flats and houses bigger, etc- which has also had an effect on prices in traditionally fashionable/desirable areas.

Fribourg and surrounding villages, the Gros de Vaud and villages, and nearby valleys above the lakes have seen a clear increased interest and rising prices. Even La Chaux-de-Fonds has become a desirable market for investment in older blocks of flats- low price and lower rents- but much higher return than in Geneva. It is very interesting to watch. The area between Neuchatel and Bienne is becoming very popular, and so is the Val-de-Ruz, with definite related price rise.
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Old 16.12.2013, 20:20
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

FYI, this is the best general quarterly report I've found. If someone knows a better one, please post it.


http://www.wuestundpartner.com/en/pu...t-schweiz.html
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Old 16.12.2013, 20:31
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

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Please come back once the Swiss will vote on this topic: http://www.admin.ch/ch/d//pore/vi/vis406t.html
You mean this?:

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss_ne...l?cid=37543572

Tom
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Old 16.12.2013, 20:49
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

Quote:
Hmm yes- but people have also made the definite decision to travel a bit further, where prices are lower, flats and houses bigger, etc- which has also had an effect on prices in traditionally fashionable/desirable areas.

Fribourg and surrounding villages, the Gros de Vaud and villages, and nearby valleys above the lakes have seen a clear increased interest and rising prices. Even La Chaux-de-Fonds has become a desirable market for investment in older blocks of flats- low price and lower rents- but much higher return than in Geneva. It is very interesting to watch. The area between Neuchatel and Bienne is becoming very popular, and so is the Val-de-Ruz, with definite related price rise.

Investing in those areas is a bet on the watch industry, it's a high risk strategy which may or may not ultimately pay off . In the end if you can't let the flats you may have to knock them down due to tax liability . Just like commercial property in the UK .
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Old 16.12.2013, 20:54
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

Indeed. That of course does not apply to Gros de Vaud, Yverdon, Vallorbe, Estavayer, Bulle, Fribourg- etc, which have also seen increased interest and prices. As said, interesting. Thanl goodness we have bought our house to be a home and not an investment- our children will have to sort it all out
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Old 17.12.2013, 08:56
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

I shall repeat:

- The Swiss buy property to live in. They generally buy once - and have the intention on leaving the property in a box - very much like my grandparents believed. The market for Single Family Homes in pretty much ANY area will remain strong as they are the most desirable for the base market.

- Modern appartments bought as an investment will remain risky.

- Appartments in "classic" blocks in good order in central locations remain highly desirable.
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Old 17.12.2013, 12:36
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

Look back 50 years for an idea how the next 50 will be and remember the 3 maxims: location, location, location...
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Old 17.12.2013, 14:45
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

naa, that would be this: http://www.admin.ch/ch/i//pore/vi/vis413t.html

Which is SPV/UDC wishy-washy, namby-pamby, flimsy-slimsy as usual:

Quote:
Die jährlichen Höchstzahlen und Kontingente für erwerbstätige Ausländerinnen und Ausländer sind auf die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Interessen der Schweiz unter Berücksichtigung eines Vorranges für Schweizerinnen und Schweizer auszurichten

I tetti massimi annuali e i contingenti annuali per gli stranieri che esercitano un'attività lucrativa devono essere stabiliti in funzione degli interessi globali dell'economia svizzera e nel rispetto del principio di preferenza agli Svizzeri
In other words: If the Swiss economic needs unlimitted immigration than we get unlimitted immigration. Or we may get an cap, whic is in violation of the EU agreement. We will see...

So it may have an effect on the housing market or it may have not. (positive or negative depends on ones point of view).
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Old 17.12.2013, 15:13
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Where is the housing market going...?

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Look back 50 years for an idea how the next 50 will be and remember the 3 maxims: location, location, location...

I think that's very foolish, interest rates are at a 300 year low & the cost of property to income is 3 times higher than 50 years ago. The greatest fool has probably recently bought.
As it happens I just signed a purchase contract on a penthouse this morning, probably will turn out to be a bad investment v equities.
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Old 17.12.2013, 16:16
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

In terms of my location interest levels still seem to be at a high. Friends of ours only advertised their detached house three weeks ago and have daily viewings since. Three separate clients have all agreed to pay the asking price advertised! A very nice position to be in. The house is quite a new build being six years old in Jan.

Who said the 'Swiss buy for life'?
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Old 17.12.2013, 16:17
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

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I think that's very foolish, interest rates are at a 300 year low & the cost of property to income is 3 times higher than 50 years ago. The greatest fool has probably recently bought.
As it happens I just signed a purchase contract on a penthouse this morning, probably will turn out to be a bad investment v equities.
Provided you can pay at higher interest rates, it's not a problem. I would expect the cost of property to income to be even higher in 50 years. We will still be speculating about housing bubbles and property will be 10 times it current value.

And equities are not a roof over your head...
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Old 17.12.2013, 16:25
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

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As it happens I just signed a purchase contract on a penthouse this morning, probably will turn out to be a bad investment v equities.
So you finally did it? You let your heart rule over your head?

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Provided you can pay at higher interest rates, it's not a problem.
You might be able to but the question is really, do you want to? When interest rates do go up eventually, there is an almost inevitable correction down in prices, which means your neighbour who is renting will be paying a lot less than you paying a mortgage at interest rates 5 to 10 times higher.

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I would expect the cost of property to income to be even higher in 50 years. We will still be speculating about housing bubbles and property will be 10 times it current value.
Based on what? No one knows, prices can also tank 50%, it will for sure be interesting to watch how housing inflation / deflation develops.

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And equities are not a roof over your head...
That argument will soon become invalid when you are paying so much more premium for a roof over your head.

Last edited by The_Love_Doctor; 17.12.2013 at 16:42.
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Old 17.12.2013, 16:57
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Re: Where is the housing market going...?

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And equities are not a roof over your head...
A house bought with borrowed money only offers a roof over your head if you can make the monthly payments, same as renting.......only paying a 20% deposit is 5 times gearing, so highly speculative investing at best.

Unless you buy with cash, you gain no security, in CH it actually creates a tax liability

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So you finally did it? You let your heart rule over your head?

Based on what? No one knows, prices can also tank 50%, it will for sure be interesting to watch how housing inflation / deflation develops.

.
Just taking some change off the roulette wheel for a few spins just like buying cars I have given the seller a hard time

You miss quoted me, if house prices fall by 50% they still won't be cheap by any stretch of the imagination. 50% falls v earnings is probably about right over the next 50 years. Apparently the younger generations can't afford to buy as prices are too high for them. The older generations will die & the properties have to be sold in the end for what the future generations can afford to pay however little that may be. Housing can only realistically be unaffordable for 25 years..........who knows how much longer prices will stay high.

Last edited by fatmanfilms; 17.12.2013 at 17:09. Reason: Second quote from LD
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