Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Help & tips > Housing in general  
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 21.07.2014, 19:54
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Geneva
Posts: 4,019
Groaned at 37 Times in 31 Posts
Thanked 5,612 Times in 2,012 Posts
McTAVGE has a reputation beyond reputeMcTAVGE has a reputation beyond reputeMcTAVGE has a reputation beyond reputeMcTAVGE has a reputation beyond reputeMcTAVGE has a reputation beyond reputeMcTAVGE has a reputation beyond repute
Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

This is asking the experts. Visiting three or four flats this week and next week. Some have been for sale for several months now, with price cut down by 300.000 CHF in one case. Still, they're all a bit over our budget, so I want to know if we have any bargaining power at all. Are prices likely to drop down further? There is definitely a shift in Geneva, but we don't want to end in negative equity either in case we want to sell in 10 years time or so.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 21.07.2014, 20:52
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 21,376
Groaned at 461 Times in 352 Posts
Thanked 23,091 Times in 11,824 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

Quote:
View Post
This is asking the experts. Visiting three or four flats this week and next week. Some have been for sale for several months now, with price cut down by 300.000 CHF in one case. Still, they're all a bit over our budget, so I want to know if we have any bargaining power at all. Are prices likely to drop down further? There is definitely a shift in Geneva, but we don't want to end in negative equity either in case we want to sell in 10 years time or so.
Prices could fall for the next 10 years, as interest rates rise expect prices to fall. Even a 50% fall would not make Geneva property ( or London) seem good value.

I don't think you need rush, the fall has hardly even started.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank fatmanfilms for this useful post:
  #3  
Old 21.07.2014, 21:46
GenevaSculler's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Geneva
Posts: 1,251
Groaned at 7 Times in 5 Posts
Thanked 1,033 Times in 534 Posts
GenevaSculler has a reputation beyond reputeGenevaSculler has a reputation beyond reputeGenevaSculler has a reputation beyond reputeGenevaSculler has a reputation beyond reputeGenevaSculler has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

Equally rates could go up less than expected as the "recovery" doesn't take off, leading to continuing flows of capital to "safe" assets such as high end properties and prices go back up again.

Personally I have no idea which scenario will play out, but I'm fairly sure you can't know for sure either. We'll see in 10 years time I guess, but personally I'm happy to have my own apartment and for the next 9 years whilst my mortgage rate is fixed to be saving approximately 50% compared to its rental value.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank GenevaSculler for this useful post:
  #4  
Old 22.07.2014, 10:02
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Brussels, former Geneva area
Posts: 320
Groaned at 24 Times in 15 Posts
Thanked 328 Times in 140 Posts
belgo has an excellent reputationbelgo has an excellent reputationbelgo has an excellent reputationbelgo has an excellent reputation
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

What does not make sense is that you would pay 1 million chf for a flat around Geneva but when it is in France only 5km further, the same money would buy you a villa. The "Swiss premium" for the normal middle class family (not for the rich) should be worth 25-30% but not 100%. So yes for me the Geneva area is seriously overpriced and does not offer much upside for an investor. But Geneva consistently builds (already for the last 20 years) only a fraction of the property it needs for its growth and development and the strategy is to use neighbouring France to fill the gap. As long as this works the scarcity of property will keep prices artificially high in my opinion. Not much chance it will suddenly become 50% cheaper, 10% is possible but not more.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank belgo for this useful post:
  #5  
Old 24.07.2014, 21:58
Newbie
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Zürich
Posts: 6
Groaned at 0 Times in 0 Posts
Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post
Fifi23 has no particular reputation at present
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

Living in France though means higher taxes etc...not just the house prices to look at but it might be an alternative for you to look at?
I wouldnt worry too much if you are thinking of staying there for about 10 years...there is always a risk when buying if you want a risk free solution just rent like most of the swiss people do.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Fifi23 for this useful post:
  #6  
Old 24.07.2014, 22:08
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 21,376
Groaned at 461 Times in 352 Posts
Thanked 23,091 Times in 11,824 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

Quote:
View Post
Living in France though means higher taxes etc...not just the house prices to look at but it might be an alternative for you to look at?
I wouldnt worry too much if you are thinking of staying there for about 10 years...there is always a risk when buying if you want a risk free solution just rent like most of the swiss people do.
No higher taxes if you earn 90% of your income in Geneva.....wealth taxes could well be rather less.
It you trade the stock market & have capital gains then CHF could be cheaper.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 24.07.2014, 22:15
TiMow's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Fribourg
Posts: 9,295
Groaned at 237 Times in 154 Posts
Thanked 12,188 Times in 5,300 Posts
TiMow has a reputation beyond reputeTiMow has a reputation beyond reputeTiMow has a reputation beyond reputeTiMow has a reputation beyond reputeTiMow has a reputation beyond reputeTiMow has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

Quote:
View Post
This is asking the experts. Visiting three or four flats this week and next week. Some have been for sale for several months now, with price cut down by 300.000 CHF in one case. Still, they're all a bit over our budget, so I want to know if we have any bargaining power at all. Are prices likely to drop down further? There is definitely a shift in Geneva, but we don't want to end in negative equity either in case we want to sell in 10 years time or so.
I'm no expert, but, actually quite simple minded.

Don't speculate too much whether prices will drop further - interest rates are already quite low.
If you see a property you really like, but it's slightly over budget, just make a ridiculously low offer and see what happens.

Whether prices drop or not, it's not a sellers market at the moment, and I would guess, with the semi-transient members of the population of Geneva, some sellers may have to just cut their losses.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank TiMow for this useful post:
  #8  
Old 25.07.2014, 08:47
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Zug
Posts: 327
Groaned at 5 Times in 4 Posts
Thanked 178 Times in 104 Posts
Sophie76 is considered knowledgeableSophie76 is considered knowledgeableSophie76 is considered knowledgeable
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

We bought an apartment recently but in the mountains. We wanted to invest our money in something but in zug the prices are also over inflated and could drop in the future as a little bubble here. We felt our money was better invested in property elsewhere and got a lot more for it! Can you think about purchasing somewhere else?
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 25.07.2014, 08:57
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 21,376
Groaned at 461 Times in 352 Posts
Thanked 23,091 Times in 11,824 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

Quote:
View Post
We bought an apartment recently but in the mountains. We wanted to invest our money in something but in zug the prices are also over inflated and could drop in the future as a little bubble here. We felt our money was better invested in property elsewhere and got a lot more for it! Can you think about purchasing somewhere else?
When it comes to buy, always remember the 3 most important things.

Location
Location
Location

If your looking to live in the house for ever, it does not matter, however you used the words 'invest' so it's not just somewhere to live in your mind.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank fatmanfilms for this useful post:
  #10  
Old 25.07.2014, 10:46
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: Geneva
Posts: 46
Groaned at 2 Times in 1 Post
Thanked 14 Times in 10 Posts
topswit has no particular reputation at present
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

On the same topic...

Swiss Housing Bubble: Twelve Reasons Why It Will Continue for another Decade

http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-ma...ousing-bubble/
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 25.07.2014, 11:02
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 21,376
Groaned at 461 Times in 352 Posts
Thanked 23,091 Times in 11,824 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

Quote:
View Post
On the same topic...

Swiss Housing Bubble: Twelve Reasons Why It Will Continue for another Decade

http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-ma...ousing-bubble/
I don't think the journalist has done much research on CH in general, he writes 'Wage increases are still weak in Switzerland: 0.8%' It's way higher than the average rise I have seen over 20 years in CH, I would be surprised if salaries are 10% higher than 20 years ago. Cost of living has not changed much either.
Wage increases are still weak in Switzerland: 0.8%

The biggest danger is when everybody agrees

Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 25.07.2014, 14:18
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Brussels, former Geneva area
Posts: 320
Groaned at 24 Times in 15 Posts
Thanked 328 Times in 140 Posts
belgo has an excellent reputationbelgo has an excellent reputationbelgo has an excellent reputationbelgo has an excellent reputation
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

Quote:
View Post
No higher taxes if you earn 90% of your income in Geneva.....wealth taxes could well be rather less.
It you trade the stock market & have capital gains then CHF could be cheaper.
The price difference in housing and cost of living is so much higher than the saving in taxation on capital gains on shares that for 95% of people it will never be cheaper in Geneva, unless you are a millionaire or someone who mainly lives on investment income.
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users would like to thank belgo for this useful post:
  #13  
Old 25.07.2014, 14:27
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 21,376
Groaned at 461 Times in 352 Posts
Thanked 23,091 Times in 11,824 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

Quote:
View Post
The price difference in housing and cost of living is so much higher than the saving in taxation on capital gains on shares that for 95% of people it will never be cheaper in Geneva, unless you are a millionaire or someone who mainly lives on investment income.
Just having 1 million you will be better off working in CH & living in France. Wealth tax in France is not payable for 5 years in any case & kicks in at over 1 million IIRC.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 25.07.2014, 14:41
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Zurich
Posts: 84
Groaned at 1 Time in 1 Post
Thanked 50 Times in 26 Posts
han_solo has made some interesting contributions
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

I think the housing price debate which pops up every 2 weeks can be simplified.

If you are buying a place what is your prime driver? Is it investment (meaning with expected X% returns) or is it buying a place to live.

If you are looking at it primarily as an investment then you don't need to be an economist to figure out that in large part of Switzerland the prices of real estate is at top of the curve so the asset class is kind of overvalued. So after 30%-50% jump in last 5 years if you expect it to have same kind of run them you are not a matured investor.

Having said that if you are living here long term or are local and doing good for last 5-10 years and now you have a family and savings good enough that you can pay the 20%+ and afford to buy place of your choice it is not that bad. Unless the markets go through extreme in one direction you are not like to gian or loose much. If prices go little soft in short to medium term then it will be driven by increase in Interest rate, so you might see less price but you will lock at higher interest rate then current. So overall impact will be less. But if the market was to move over 15%-20% in one direction then you could be a net gainer or looser depending on which direction it goes.

So summing it up don't make it an investment vehicle, for that look for alternate asset classes. For buy to live in your own place it is not a terribly bad time to buy. but then don't look at any rent savings or huge increase in value of the investment.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank han_solo for this useful post:
  #15  
Old 26.07.2014, 08:56
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Geneva
Posts: 4,019
Groaned at 37 Times in 31 Posts
Thanked 5,612 Times in 2,012 Posts
McTAVGE has a reputation beyond reputeMcTAVGE has a reputation beyond reputeMcTAVGE has a reputation beyond reputeMcTAVGE has a reputation beyond reputeMcTAVGE has a reputation beyond reputeMcTAVGE has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

Thanks all. We owned our house in England, sold it, just enough for the 25% deposit. We also love where we are renting now (flat, location, friends, neighbours, a garden, quiet, lots of architectural features, public transport...). Originally, we thought of buying to rent for the next 10-15 years, stay where we are, then move in when we retire OR sell and seek retirement outside CH.

Now, we are not so sure. We saw a place that is hideous but with big volumes, huge potential, requires a lot of renovation, but still within our budget. To be able to afford to do the renovation work, we would need to move in. No longer an investment, however, as as many of you pointed out, the value of property has more or less peaked.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 29.07.2014, 18:19
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

Not sure about Geneva, but in the Nyon region prices are quite heterogeneous. You have some new builds near the motorway which are rather well priced. But OK, it's not really the nicest place on earth... on the other hand, if you want to be near the lake, it's getting even more expensive than ever. For example, in Prangins, they launched a new development (L'Orangerie, www.orangerieprangins.ch) - it's well situated as you can walk to the lake - but you will pay 1.7M+ for 120m2 if you want a lake view. And precisely, these expensive lake view ones are the appartments being rushed for, according to the web site most of them are reserved
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 29.07.2014, 18:30
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Vaud
Posts: 1,467
Groaned at 115 Times in 75 Posts
Thanked 1,624 Times in 911 Posts
yacek has a reputation beyond reputeyacek has a reputation beyond reputeyacek has a reputation beyond reputeyacek has a reputation beyond reputeyacek has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Will house prices come down further in Geneva?

In a last year large apartment building in Morges some apartments, first priced around 1M, were later advertised for about 20% less.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank yacek for this useful post:
Reply




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
House auction further to bankruptcy? Griet Housing in general 4 27.04.2013 19:33
Will the Italians allow Berlusconi to ruin Italy further again ? Wollishofener International affairs/politics 33 02.03.2013 14:20
Further pressure on oil prices Sbrinz International affairs/politics 2 27.03.2012 10:38
How come Digitec prices are even cheaper than Bestbuy in US ?! stdp TV/internet/telephone 13 13.02.2012 18:17


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 06:31.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0