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Old 12.03.2015, 11:58
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housing prices... where are they going?

Hi all,


We are in need for a bigger place with the addition to the family. Have been looking for both a rent and a buy option. We met with a banker to discuss mortgage and get (to use the US analogy) pre-approved. He wasn't bristling with optimism about housing prices in Switzerland. In his perspective, housing prices have actually gone down in all, but three cantons over the last 10 years. He, apparently, is underwater on his house, purchased in Aargau 12 years ago (which is the exact situation we are in with our house in the Detroit, MI, area). He also seems to think that there is a big property bubble in the Zug area (where we currently live and would like to remain).


Any thoughts and links to market research would be appreciated!


Thanks,
George
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Old 12.03.2015, 12:03
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

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Hi all,


We are in need for a bigger place with the addition to the family. Have been looking for both a rent and a buy option. We met with a banker to discuss mortgage and get (to use the US analogy) pre-approved. He wasn't bristling with optimism about housing prices in Switzerland. In his perspective, housing prices have actually gone down in all, but three cantons over the last 10 years. He, apparently, is underwater on his house, purchased in Aargau 12 years ago (which is the exact situation we are in with our house in the Detroit, MI, area). He also seems to think that there is a big property bubble in the Zug area (where we currently live and would like to remain).


Any thoughts and links to market research would be appreciated!


Thanks,
George
In which three cantons did he say prices had gone up?
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Old 12.03.2015, 12:12
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

Zurich, Zug and Lucerne.
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Old 12.03.2015, 12:14
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

Just a guess: Zurich, Zug and Geneva
OP it is of course very hard to predict the future especially with regards to housing. Generally speaking close to a big Airport (so Zurich, Geneva and Basel for Switzerland), close to a "City" with lots of jobs (again Zurich, Geneva, Basel, Lausanne and to a much lesser degree Bern and Lugano) and close to a lake - chances are the prices won't fall by a lot. But of course it all depends on your budget. Prices will come down. But if they come down from 2.5 to 1.8 million Swiss Francs it still doesn't matter for most people. It might for some but it won't for most. But prices are way out their budget.
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Old 12.03.2015, 12:18
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

All the "experts" think that Swiss property prices are too high, but people are still buying and selling at levels that would contradict the notion that there is a true housing price bubble.

The last dip in real terms was in the early 1990s, since then, Swiss property and land prices have been headed in one direction and one only and that's up.

I think the difference these days is that fewer people are speculating on buying properties for the sake of making money by letting, but are buying homes to live in themselves. I'd recommend that you figure out where you'd like to live, look around and get a feel for the area and compare the heck out of the available properties, chart the rental and sales prices and then do the math. If you have the money to make a 20-25% down payment and have the income to get a mortgage, you'll be saving money over renting in most cases (from a monthly spend viewpoint) and know that you're effectively saving towards your pension plan or creating an inheritance. The arguments for renting are flexibility, but you're paying rent to "the man" rather than saving.

Don't forget that a lot of the really expensive places are rarely sold or traded, they are inherited and stay in the same family for generations. A bunch of Swiss homeowners simply don't have the resources to pay hundreds of thousands or millions for a regular house or apartment.
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Old 12.03.2015, 12:27
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

Don't forget Canton Schwyz. Low taxes, close to Zurich and lake views. It's lured in Mr Federer....
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Old 12.03.2015, 12:37
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

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Zurich, Zug and Lucerne.
Location, location, location.
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Old 12.03.2015, 12:43
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

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Don't forget Canton Schwyz. Low taxes, close to Zurich and lake views. It's lured in Mr Federer....
True, but Ausserschwyz is a horrible place to live.

My tip would be the north end of canton Glarus (Ziegelbruecke, Niederurnen, Naefels, Mollis) - the canton as a whole is in decline, but there are some signs that things are picking up again in Glarus Nord as companies move out of the lake area to a cheaper region with good transport links to Zurich and the east.

It's a bit grubby and down at heel at the moment, but give it five years...
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Old 12.03.2015, 12:55
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

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Don't forget Canton Schwyz. Low taxes, close to Zurich and lake views. It's lured in Mr Federer....
But Mr. Federer plays in an entirely different league than the average Schwyzer. And the average Schwyzer is worried.

If taxes are a draw think twice. SZ has just raised taxes significantly, pretty much losing it's primary attraction.

In response, housing prices are falling but are but likely not yet at the low. (The unsold homes in our neighborhood have dropped the asking prices by 25percent, still no interest.)

If you intend to buy and stay for 20 plus years, SZ, if you can find a single family house, might still be a good option. But if resale in the medium term is a concern, think carefully.
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Old 12.03.2015, 13:01
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

It's difficult to generalise on a canton by canton basis. In Fribourg, for example, property prices in the "greater Fribourg area" (for want of a better term) have increased significantly over the last 5 years or so. Head a little further out of town and the difference is less noticeable. Case in point; our appartment has appreciated by around 40% (estimated) since 2009.
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Old 12.03.2015, 13:02
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

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true, but pfaeffikon is a horrible place to live.
ftfy


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Old 12.03.2015, 13:05
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

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True, but Ausserschwyz is a horrible place to live.
Yep, absolutely horrible
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Old 12.03.2015, 13:08
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

Here we ago again, my house and loc is better than yours.
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Old 12.03.2015, 13:44
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

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Hi all,


We are in need for a bigger place with the addition to the family. Have been looking for both a rent and a buy option. We met with a banker to discuss mortgage and get (to use the US analogy) pre-approved. He wasn't bristling with optimism about housing prices in Switzerland. In his perspective, housing prices have actually gone down in all, but three cantons over the last 10 years. He, apparently, is underwater on his house, purchased in Aargau 12 years ago (which is the exact situation we are in with our house in the Detroit, MI, area). He also seems to think that there is a big property bubble in the Zug area (where we currently live and would like to remain).


Any thoughts and links to market research would be appreciated!


Thanks,
George

We have been following / searching the Zug property market for a long time also in the hope of buying our own place.
Seeing all the new places (mostly apartments) that have and are going up in the area in recent times I'm hoping that there will be a downward trend sometime soon due to oversupply......I mean really how many more new people can they fit into such a small place??


Sadly I think if there is a drop it will be in the family sized apartment segment and not in the stand alone type of home which we are interested in.
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Old 12.03.2015, 20:37
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

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We have been following / searching the Zug property market for a long time also in the hope of buying our own place.
Seeing all the new places (mostly apartments) that have and are going up in the area in recent times I'm hoping that there will be a downward trend sometime soon due to oversupply......I mean really how many more new people can they fit into such a small place??


Sadly I think if there is a drop it will be in the family sized apartment segment and not in the stand alone type of home which we are interested in.


We have also been searching for the last 6 months. If there is an over-supply, it hasn't manifested itself (yet). The new high-rises are pricey. There are some decent places opening up away from downtown Zug that are at (for us) more normal prices, but many places seem to be bought by investment companies for subsequent renting. Lots of construction in Zug, Neuheim, Cham, Baar and Ober-Aegeri. Yet most apartments are already pre-sold!
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Old 12.03.2015, 20:43
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

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It's difficult to generalise on a canton by canton basis. In Fribourg, for example, property prices in the "greater Fribourg area" (for want of a better term) have increased significantly over the last 5 years or so. Head a little further out of town and the difference is less noticeable. Case in point; our appartment has appreciated by around 40% (estimated) since 2009.
Some parts of Neuchâtel Canton have also gone up significantly since then- due to pressure on the Leman Riviera, and more industries bieng lured into the Canton. All along the lake and also the Val-de-Ruz above Neuchâtel which has seen large increases (sadly not my part )

Last edited by Odile; 12.03.2015 at 22:11.
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Old 12.03.2015, 21:34
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

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He, apparently, is underwater on his house, purchased in Aargau 12 years ago
That could happen to anyone who bought anywhere...or not. I know plenty of people who have sold properties in Aargau at a considerable profit.

There are parts of Aargau, including where we live, where property and land prices are significantly lower and only recently have they started to climb.

It's been said before, getting into property ownership here is not meant for the short term.

There seems to be an obsession with low taxes on this forum. If you buy a new house in a low tax area, you may not be better off than buying an old house in a higher tax area and deducting the repairs you put in from your taxes.
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Old 12.03.2015, 22:13
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

Plus of course the huge difference in purchase price in the first place, and the huge difference in the amount of cash needed to go ahead...

Last edited by Odile; 12.03.2015 at 22:36.
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Old 13.03.2015, 08:38
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

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Plus of course the huge difference in purchase price in the first place, and the huge difference in the amount of cash needed to go ahead...
We looked at a house similar to ours but the major difference is the land price is five times per m2 more expensive than where we live.
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Old 13.03.2015, 09:15
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Re: housing prices... where are they going?

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Plus of course the huge difference in purchase price in the first place, and the huge difference in the amount of cash needed to go ahead...
Let's carefully re-read post N°7.....
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