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  #21  
Old 24.08.2016, 17:36
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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You think prices in Lugano are low ?!
Yes.

Tom
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  #22  
Old 24.08.2016, 21:27
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

The slowdown is mostly due to the new mortgage rules implemented a few years ago, ie. 20% downpayment rather than 10%. This change was made in order to avoid a bubble.
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  #23  
Old 24.08.2016, 21:44
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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The slowdown is mostly due to the new mortgage rules implemented a few years ago, ie. 20% downpayment rather than 10%. This change was made in order to avoid a bubble.
It's been 20% for at least 15 years.
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  #24  
Old 24.08.2016, 21:46
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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Yes.

Tom
Then you must be coming from some funny place to think that... anyway my opinion is they will go down as the main support factor for those prices is the banking industry..which is slowly disappearing. You may notice that prices in Lugano are quite (o lot) more expensive than elsewhere in Ticino.

Then, you also need to remember the purchase power in Ticino is less than say Zurich...
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  #25  
Old 24.08.2016, 21:58
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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It's been 20% for at least 15 years.
I think she means the changes implemented recently regarding how much pension pot can be used as deposit and how much has to be in cash.
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  #26  
Old 24.08.2016, 22:00
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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I think she means the changes implemented recently regarding how much pension pot can be used as deposit and how much has to be in cash.
Ah. Yes. Could mean less people have the cash to buy. I think slowing things down was the point of that initiative.
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  #27  
Old 24.08.2016, 22:05
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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Then you must be coming from some funny place to think that...
26 years in Lugano.

Tom
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  #28  
Old 24.08.2016, 22:14
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

pfff

for sale property prices are driven by rental prices

most property is available to rent not buy

most people rent

rents have not been coming down... and as most rents are fixed by large corporations... not individual landlords... it'll take major economic upheavals to bring down rents.. and that's not forecast

so.. while a fixed rate mortgages stay on the floor and the monthly mortgage payments stay below the rentable equivalent... and the swiss don't start building huge amounts of for sale properties (which they wont.. they'll balance supply and demand) .. imho.. property prices will stay firm
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  #29  
Old 24.08.2016, 22:20
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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If you look at what happened with house prices in Japan, it looks very scary indeed. Low interest rates did not support house prices. It's different this time, are the 4 most costly words in the English language
scary indeed. Japan is also at the forefront of what happens with an ageing demographic. They are on average a little older than we are in this western world so are setting an example. By the time houseproces stabilise again there are no house buyers left alive. So we beter keep the expats and foreigners coming in to make up for productivity (putting money in the pension funds) and sheer manpower.
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  #30  
Old 24.08.2016, 22:25
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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rents have not been coming down... and as most rents are fixed by large corporations... not individual landlords... it'll take major economic upheavals to bring down rents.. and that's not forecast
Thats not strictly speaking true, anyone who has a contract from 5 or 10 years ago will have had a rent reduction due to falling interest rates.
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  #31  
Old 24.08.2016, 22:25
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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pfff

so.. while a fixed rate mortgages stay on the floor and the monthly mortgage payments stay below the rentable equivalent... and the swiss don't start building huge amounts of for sale properties (which they wont.. they'll balance supply and demand) .. imho.. property prices will stay firm
That didn't happen in commercial real estate. what makes you think 'they' will balance the supply in apartments and houses? I see wild building ongoing and some of it empty after delivery.

Money is too cheap but debt will not evaporate as there is no inflation and none expected to.
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  #32  
Old 24.08.2016, 22:32
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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Thats not strictly speaking true, anyone who has a contract from 5 or 10 years ago will have had a rent reduction due to falling interest rates.
maybe... for some.. but even then... not an 'omg the rent is now half what it used to be' reduction.. maybe 5%.. if they're lucky (would be a good poll on EF.. 'has your rent reduced in the last 10 years ?')

i'm only arguing that prices will 'stay firm'.. maybe move down a bit.. maybe up a bit.. rather than the cataclysmic doomsday scenarios that some scaredy cats are promoting
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  #33  
Old 24.08.2016, 22:35
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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That didn't happen in commercial real estate. what makes you think 'they' will balance the supply in apartments and houses? I see wild building ongoing and some of it empty after delivery.

Money is too cheap but debt will not evaporate as there is no inflation and none expected to.
Because it's a market.. and it will adjust .. 'they' .. i.e. property developers will put the brakes on if they don't see an opportunity.. they might put the brakes on late.. there might be the odd bump.. but.. it will adjust
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  #34  
Old 24.08.2016, 22:35
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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Thats not strictly speaking true, anyone who has a contract from 5 or 10 years ago will have had a rent reduction due to falling interest rates.
Nope.

Tom
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  #35  
Old 24.08.2016, 22:50
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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And for CH:

Those graphs are pretty much meaningless. "USA housing market"? What's that? "Australia housing market" — perhaps even more nonsensical, with housing prices fluctuating widely between cities, driven in some cases by an unsustainable resources boom that didn't apply in all areas. "Tokyo housing market", yes, that makes more sense, and the comparison to a "Japan housing market" that has behaved very differently underscores my point very nicely. "CH housing market" — the dynamics of the market in Gstaad are very different to those of Lausanne.

You simply can't generalise across vast (or small) countries comprising multiple, almost disparate housing markets. A bubble in Manchester doesn't necessarily translate to a bubble in London — the two markets may even be almost independent.

Last edited by 22 yards; 24.08.2016 at 23:38. Reason: Coupla corrections
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  #36  
Old 24.08.2016, 22:57
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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Nope.

Tom
You have to ask for the reduction, the base interest rate in your contract must be 3.5% or more.
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  #37  
Old 24.08.2016, 23:09
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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That didn't happen in commercial real estate. what makes you think 'they' will balance the supply in apartments and houses? I see wild building ongoing and some of it empty after delivery.

Money is too cheap but debt will not evaporate as there is no inflation and none expected to.
Where are you seeing this? Please send me links so I can buy one of these.
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  #38  
Old 24.08.2016, 23:20
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

Some links to contribute to the topic:
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/E.../Price-History
http://www.imf.org/external/research/housing/index.htm

A piece of info from the first link:

"By region:
In Western Switzerland, rents are expected to drop by 0.8% y-o-y in 2016
In the Lake Geneva area, rents are expected to fall by 0.6% y-o-y in 2016
In the canton of Valais, rents will fall by about 2.1% y-o-y in 2016
In the Greater Zurich area, rents are expected to rise slightly by 0.3% y-o-y in 2016
In the Italian-speaking Ticino, rents are expected to rise by 0.8% y-o-y in 2016"
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Old 24.08.2016, 23:45
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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"By region:
In Western Switzerland, rents are expected to drop by 0.8% y-o-y in 2016
In the Lake Geneva area, rents are expected to fall by 0.6% y-o-y in 2016
In the canton of Valais, rents will fall by about 2.1% y-o-y in 2016
In the Greater Zurich area, rents are expected to rise slightly by 0.3% y-o-y in 2016
In the Italian-speaking Ticino, rents are expected to rise by 0.8% y-o-y in 2016"
(... demonstrating again that there is no such thing as a "Swiss housing market". Unless you've bought real estate all over Switzerland, you're unlikely to be simultaneously excited about upswings in Zürich, downswings in Romandie and roundabouts in Solothurn.)

On a positive note, we're good in Basel, then.
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  #40  
Old 24.08.2016, 23:45
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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26 years in Lugano.

Tom
Well, then maybe we have grown up together ... well, let's agree to disagree then!
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