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Old 23.08.2016, 20:59
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Any feelings out there about property prices?

Any feelings out there about property prices?

https://data.snb.ch/en/topics/uvo#!/cube/plimoinreg

I see a bit more supply this year compared to previous 2.
Could it be a signal of a downward price adjustment?
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Old 23.08.2016, 21:04
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

About to go down a bit IMO, strong franc and bubble running too many years.
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Old 23.08.2016, 21:31
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

Already gently decreasing, which is fine.
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Old 23.08.2016, 21:32
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

They said no bubble bursting but more of an adjustment, some areas are still under watch though like Leman coast, zürich, zug, lugano...
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Old 23.08.2016, 22:21
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

The banks are banking on low interest rates for many years as the long term rates are at record lows in CH.
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Old 23.08.2016, 22:30
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

This may be of interest, as the marginal buyers dry up then prices could fall a very long way. The last paid price is no indication that it can be sold at anything close to what was paid.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article56275.html

This is very clearly happening with high end London property, prices have been reduced 15-25% & still nobody bites, will the price have to fall a further 15-25% or more, only time will tell.
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Old 23.08.2016, 23:09
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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They said no bubble bursting but more of an adjustment, some areas are still under watch though like Leman coast, zürich, zug, lugano...
Don't see how lugano prices could go any lower.

Tom
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Old 24.08.2016, 00:46
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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Don't see how lugano prices could go any lower.

Tom
You think prices in Lugano are low ?!
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Old 24.08.2016, 00:48
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

prices have been too high for too long.

but as with all house price bubbles, they will go on for longer and higher than housing bears expect, but shorter than housing bulls would like.
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Old 24.08.2016, 02:03
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

If you want to sell now, sell.
The SNB isn't worried because they're pussy-cats.

The amount of debt people have accumulated for housing is staggering.
Worse: a really large part of our pension-funds are invested in real-estate, too.
They're the ones building large rental-complexes.
What would happen if nobody rented there?
I think I read that you only need about 20% unoccupied apartments for the whole balance-sheet to fall into the negative (or some other ridiculously low number).
As long as net 50-100k people per year enter Switzerland, that bubble is going to further inflate - but god help us if that flow stops or reverses.
That will be really, really, painful.
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Old 24.08.2016, 07:32
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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If you want to sell now, sell.
The SNB isn't worried because they're pussy-cats.

The amount of debt people have accumulated for housing is staggering.
Worse: a really large part of our pension-funds are invested in real-estate, too.
They're the ones building large rental-complexes.
What would happen if nobody rented there?
I think I read that you only need about 20% unoccupied apartments for the whole balance-sheet to fall into the negative (or some other ridiculously low number).
As long as net 50-100k people per year enter Switzerland, that bubble is going to further inflate - but god help us if that flow stops or reverses.
That will be really, really, painful.
20% is not low. Currently the rate is 1.2% with a 2% 'high' in VS, JU, AG, GL and a low of 0.5% in GE, ZG, ZU, BL, BS.
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Old 24.08.2016, 08:37
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

I don't think prices will fall that much, last I checked most new buildings the reserve a big chunk for rentals. In Zürich at least I don't see many new projects starting
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Old 24.08.2016, 09:18
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

Properties with land will continue to command good values - even those in a poor condition.

20-30 year old apartments should be avoided like the plague unless the entire block has been renovated in the last few years.

Rental occupancy rates remain high.

(How many times are we going to have the same conversation on here????)
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Old 24.08.2016, 09:20
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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This may be of interest, as the marginal buyers dry up then prices could fall a very long way. The last paid price is no indication that it can be sold at anything close to what was paid.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article56275.html

This is very clearly happening with high end London property, prices have been reduced 15-25% & still nobody bites, will the price have to fall a further 15-25% or more, only time will tell.
Interesting article, there is no doubt that the market has flattened but the effect on the average buyer vs margin buyer is arguably less for the average buyer. The premium prices (read crazy) paid for top properties/locations always goes up and down first and also in magnitude. So for the average homeowner this won't have a large (or as large) effect unless you are pushed, for whatever reason to sell. With negative interest rates banks seem to be making more money than ever from home loans so as long as the punters keep paying I would surmise that the banks are not going to make to many margin calls on average properties. However if you have paid a premium price and banged a million or so in renovations on top and they will look at you more closely so you better have this covered.
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Old 24.08.2016, 09:36
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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If you want to sell now, sell.
The SNB isn't worried because they're pussy-cats.

The amount of debt people have accumulated for housing is staggering.
Worse: a really large part of our pension-funds are invested in real-estate, too.
They're the ones building large rental-complexes.
What would happen if nobody rented there?
I think I read that you only need about 20% unoccupied apartments for the whole balance-sheet to fall into the negative (or some other ridiculously low number).
As long as net 50-100k people per year enter Switzerland, that bubble is going to further inflate - but god help us if that flow stops or reverses.
That will be really, really, painful.
20%?! That would be in the same magnitude as Syrian refugee crisis!
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Old 24.08.2016, 09:43
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

So difficult to compare experiences and thoughts as regions differ so much. Then the market for apartments is completely different from houses and completely different from the high end market.

Switzerland is a bubble and has been one for quite a long time. I hope it will stay that way for a little longer.

I did read expectations from VZ that the interest rate is going to be flat for the upcoming 20 years. Thats a Japan scenario and they are not out of it yet after 19 years.
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Old 24.08.2016, 09:50
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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So difficult to compare experiences and thoughts as regions differ so much. Then the market for apartments is completely different from houses and completely different from the high end market.

Switzerland is a bubble and has been one for quite a long time. I hope it will stay that way for a little longer.

I did read expectations from VZ that the interest rate is going to be flat for the upcoming 20 years. Thats a Japan scenario and they are not out of it yet after 19 years.
If you look at what happened with house prices in Japan, it looks very scary indeed. Low interest rates did not support house prices. It's different this time, are the 4 most costly words in the English language
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Old 24.08.2016, 10:06
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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bubble and has been one for quite a long time.
Not sure if bubble and fo quite a long time really fit together

Switzerland is very stable, and small which makes it hard to compare it to big economies and countries.
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Old 24.08.2016, 10:13
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?

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Not sure if bubble and fo quite a long time really fit together

Switzerland is very stable, and small which makes it hard to compare it to big economies and countries.
A bubble can easily last 10 years. The UK's house price bubble did not pop in 2002, 16 years later the bubble has just got bigger.
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Old 24.08.2016, 10:15
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Re: Any feelings out there about property prices?



And for CH:

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