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  #21  
Old 10.01.2019, 17:24
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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I think thats a foolish assumption, anyone who rented a house 25 years ago will be paying a similar rent to when they moved in, it probably did go up 10% but with interest rate falls the rent will have fallen since. Then salaries are not very different, in IT or Banking probably less.
That 25 year old property will need a significant refit soon.
I find it hard to believe that salaries are to be seen as around equal compared to 25 yrs ago, besides that we should look at the salary expectations of the person who buys the house, and it is more likely that people earn more throughout life than less, just like that I find it very hard to believe that rents for people who rent the same object are at the same level as when they moved in (give or take 10%)

At least there will be no doubt that who bought 25 yrs ago now will have a property which is at this moment very likely of much higher value.
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Old 10.01.2019, 17:26
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

I just bought a house, maybe someone is interested in my thoughts.

Of course I'm a bit worried about being ca. 700k in dept, I payed 940k, the bank estimates its value around 860k, so my thought was: in the worst case I loose around 80k. Feel free to correct me here but do it gently

I save around 1k/per month in rent (ammortisation already included) compared to our current 5.5 room flat. Results in 12k p.a. and 120k for the run time of the contract. Depends on whats happening with the Eigenmietwert, there will be further tax benefits.

Maybe interest rates will be at 3% in ten years. I doubt that they will be at 5% again, since they are linked to the EZB. I don't want to imagine what happens to the whole south of europe if they raise the interest rates that high.

To me, my home is nothing to make money with, I really don't need any ROI. Im even happy with loosing a significant amount of money with it. I'planning to live there for the next 30 years.
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Old 10.01.2019, 17:32
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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When talking about compensating losses with savings from rent, also remember that you've had some capital locked up in the depreciating asset & loan payments that could have been invested (e.g. in dividend paying stocks) if you rented instead.

Yes, the opportunity cost of the down-payment could/should be factored in, especially in a higher IR environment. This could make renting even more attractive and offset the rent increase caused by the increase in the base mortgage rate.
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Old 10.01.2019, 17:35
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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I just bought a house, maybe someone is interested in my thoughts.

Of course I'm a bit worried about being ca. 700k in dept, I payed 940k, the bank estimates its value around 860k, so my thought was: in the worst case I loose around 80k. Feel free to correct me here but do it gently

I save around 1k/per month in rent (ammortisation already included) compared to our current 5.5 room flat. Results in 12k p.a. and 120k for the run time of the contract. Depends on whats happening with the Eigenmietwert, there will be further tax benefits.

Maybe interest rates will be at 3% in ten years. I doubt that they will be at 5% again, since they are linked to the EZB. I don't want to imagine what happens to the whole south of europe if they raise the interest rates that high.

To me, my home is nothing to make money with, I really don't need any ROI. Im even happy with loosing a significant amount of money with it. I'planning to live there for the next 30 years.

Thanks for your perspective! I agree, it is not all about ROI...
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Old 10.01.2019, 17:39
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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tend to agree, and that 700k debt can become a big burden if something goes wrong in one's situation (health, job, divorce, etc.). But apparently many people are comfortable carrying large debts and skating on thin ice...
Ultimately it's not the 700K debt but the cost of servicing it that is the issue. And that is still likely to be less than the rent that you you also still have to pay.
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Old 10.01.2019, 18:00
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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Let's not forget how in more popular areas the rents are not likely to drop soon but are more likely to rise, and if the interest goes up, so do the rents. Especially in the long run rents will simply be higher due to inflation and other factors.

When buying I get a certainty for at least the period I set my interest.

For me buying is strictly a calculation thing, and I would buy again to lower my monthly expenses on the long term.

I had to sell my house in the Netherlands after 9 yrs with a loss of 27.5K, however this still was cheaper than when I had to rent that whole period.
I hardly believe that is still true if you consider opportunity cost of the downpayment with compound interest over 9 years + 27.5K.

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i think it is a bet purely on how long the low IR environment lasts.

let's say that IRs go up and causes house prices to go down by 50%.

as long as your net savings from the low IRs are more than the 50% capital loss, then you're still ahead.

so let's say you buy a $1m place which rents for 30k per year. you pay only 1% interest on this (assuming 100% loan for simplicity). so 10k per year and you save 20k per year (again, simplifying).

let's say house prices crash 50% and the place now is worth $500k.

the 500k loss needs to be compensated by 25 years of 20k savings.
So you would break even in 25 years not considering opportunity cost and maintenance.

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Less likely in Switzerland as the banks are usually pretty restrictive in the % of the house value they will lend on (there aren't exactly many 90% - 100% mortgages to be had here). As long as your savings over renting exceed any value drop as per EdwinNL you're still ahead of the game.

BTW the Swiss (still) tend to see a house (as opposed to the underlying land) as a depreciating asset, not an investment and view the finances accordingly.
you have to keep your mortgage below 80% of current value, not 100, not 90.

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I just bought a house, maybe someone is interested in my thoughts.

Of course I'm a bit worried about being ca. 700k in dept, I payed 940k, the bank estimates its value around 860k, so my thought was: in the worst case I loose around 80k. Feel free to correct me here but do it gently

I save around 1k/per month in rent (ammortisation already included) compared to our current 5.5 room flat. Results in 12k p.a. and 120k for the run time of the contract. Depends on whats happening with the Eigenmietwert, there will be further tax benefits.

Maybe interest rates will be at 3% in ten years. I doubt that they will be at 5% again, since they are linked to the EZB. I don't want to imagine what happens to the whole south of europe if they raise the interest rates that high.

To me, my home is nothing to make money with, I really don't need any ROI. Im even happy with loosing a significant amount of money with it. I'planning to live there for the next 30 years.
worst case is a lot worth. You already lost 80K so that is NOT the worst case but the current case.

On you last point: we need to decide whether we talk about the financials or emotional aspects. As you can see from my posts, I believe property is a bad investment in CH, but I still own my place for subjective reasons and I am happy I do.
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Old 10.01.2019, 18:12
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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Ultimately it's not the 700K debt but the cost of servicing it that is the issue. And that is still likely to be less than the rent that you you also still have to pay.

Well, I don't think anyone can state for sure that servicing a 700k debt will cost you less over the next 15-20 years. Assuming a lock-in at a 1.5% for the next 10 years, it still leaves you exposed since you will have to refinance in 10 years and rates could be significantly higher then.

For example on a 700k value property (80/20 LTV) the following yearly interest payments would be applicable:
- at 1.5% IR an interest payment of 8.4k/year
- at 3% IR an interest payment of 14k/year
- at 5% IR an interest payment of 28k/year
So the savings in rent from the first 10 years can quickly be eaten up or potentially consumed if the rates are high when one has to refinance. If one decides to sell when is time to refinance, while the rates are high, one might have to turn potential paper losses from price corrections into real losses. Of course, no one knows the future, but I would not be so sure that the mirage of saving on rent will be there at the end of the day.

Last edited by Huba; 10.01.2019 at 18:32.
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Old 10.01.2019, 18:15
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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On you last point: we need to decide whether we talk about the financials or emotional aspects. As you can see from my posts, I believe property is a bad investment in CH, but I still own my place for subjective reasons and I am happy I do.

This exactly.

It is perfectly Ok to spend money, even a lot of money, for emotional reasons. But one should be careful not to fall into the trap of seeking to rationalize that.

Misery leads to depression and depressions lead to lots of health issues and premature death. So by all means, do what makes you happy before doing what makes you rich. No need to be ashamed of doing that.

That said, although i don't think property is a great investment, it is usually a passably good investment.
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Old 10.01.2019, 19:29
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

Don’t need to think too much here... real estate prices in Switzerland are way too high in my opinion and people’s salaries are going down rather than up.

20-30% correction has more than 80% chance in the next 5 years. (In my opinion)

Catch 22 situation for the SNB about raising rates is the only thing keeping things on the rise a bit, as soon as they do move 25bps then it will be “Fyrabig!” Or “Tschüüüss zääme!” (As the Swiss would say)
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Old 10.01.2019, 20:40
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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Don’t need to think too much here... real estate prices in Switzerland are way too high in my opinion and people’s salaries are going down rather than up.

20-30% correction has more than 80% chance in the next 5 years. (In my opinion)

Catch 22 situation for the SNB about raising rates is the only thing keeping things on the rise a bit, as soon as they do move 25bps then it will be “Fyrabig!” Or “Tschüüüss zääme!” (As the Swiss would say)
You can get a 20 YEAR mortgage for 1.91%
https://www.moneyland.ch/en/swiss-li...ges/fixed-rate

That tells you the banks do not foresee a huge correction. You need to eek out 5 more years to make the the 50% absolute doomsday scenario Phil predicted.

Having a house has made my kids upbringing better. This is my reason for buying. Everyone will have their own logic, it’s not always about money.
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Old 10.01.2019, 21:41
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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You can get a 20 YEAR mortgage for 1.91%
https://www.moneyland.ch/en/swiss-li...ges/fixed-rate

That tells you the banks do not foresee a huge correction. You need to eek out 5 more years to make the the 50% absolute doomsday scenario Phil predicted.

Having a house has made my kids upbringing better. This is my reason for buying. Everyone will have their own logic, it’s not always about money.
The rates available are nothing to do with Banks opinion on future house values, just what the wholesale market wants for 20 years v negative rates on offer for short term.

Allowing B permit owners allowed people just off the 'boat' to buy property, this was a huge no of new buyers, if those buyers became sellers then 50% off would come rather quickly.
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Old 10.01.2019, 21:49
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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The rates available are nothing to do with Banks opinion on future house values, just what the wholesale market wants for 20 years v negative rates on offer for short term.

Allowing B permit owners allowed people just off the 'boat' to buy property, this was a huge no of new buyers, if those buyers became sellers then 50% off would come rather quickly.
They will only sell at 50% if they have the money to effort such loss since else the bank does not agree, or if the bank does a forced selling since payments have not been made.

I don't see this happening on large scale. So no I don't believe in drops of 50%
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Old 10.01.2019, 21:52
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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They will only sell at 50% if they have the money to effort such loss since else the bank does not agree, or if the bank does a forced selling since payments have not been made.

I don't see this happening on large scale. So no I don't believe in drops of 50%
If they leave CH & have used their pension fund they have no choice but to sell unless they can pay off the pension fund and any cash call.
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Old 10.01.2019, 22:18
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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You can get a 20 YEAR mortgage for 1.91%
https://www.moneyland.ch/en/swiss-li...ges/fixed-rate

That tells you the banks do not foresee a huge correction. You need to eek out 5 more years to make the the 50% absolute doomsday scenario Phil predicted.

Having a house has made my kids upbringing better. This is my reason for buying. Everyone will have their own logic, it8217;s not always about money.
Sorry but this is a load of rubbish.

The bank doesn8217;t give a flying **** if the house prices go up or down. All they care about is their 150bps margin on the mortgage, the more the merrier.

I would!8217;t trust a bank in advising me about house prices because of the inherent conflict of interest! They make money when you buy!!! So why would they tell you not to buy???

If there is a correction of 20-30% the only loser will be the buyer because most have to put minimum 20% deposit down and then some if the bank believes the valuation is lower than the asking price.

People who bought 10-20 years ago talk from an advantage point the people who would buy now will probably never experience for their life time.
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Old 10.01.2019, 23:55
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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Sorry but this is a load of rubbish.

The bank doesn’t give a flying **** if the house prices go up or down. All they care about is their 150bps margin on the mortgage, the more the merrier.

I would!’t trust a bank in advising me about house prices because of the inherent conflict of interest! They make money when you buy!!! So why would they tell you not to buy???

If there is a correction of 20-30% the only loser will be the buyer because most have to put minimum 20% deposit down and then some if the bank believes the valuation is lower than the asking price.

People who bought 10-20 years ago talk from an advantage point the people who would buy now will probably never experience for their life time.
I think my explanation was poor sorry am on iPhone. I should have separated house prices and interest rates. So the initial point was ‘what if rates go to 5%?’ And this is my main point - if banks are currently offering 2% for 20 years they cannot think rates are headed for 5% in 5 years as they would be lending at a lower rate than the base rate.

The house price piece was coming just from Phil’s example of a 50% house price crash and how long that would take to amortize in terms of rent savings. It’s a separate point really.

Overall though, on a 20 year horizon, what is the chance your house will be worth less than it is now ? Even if there is a correction in 5 years, there would be 15 years of recovery. Yes, you can say but everything could crash by 50% forever but in that branch of ‘what if’s’ I could tell you we will all be slaves to robots in 15 years and no one will own or be earning anything. Each is possible.
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  #36  
Old 11.01.2019, 00:06
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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I hardly believe that is still true if you consider opportunity cost of the downpayment with compound interest over 9 years + 27.5K.
I had no downpayment, and given that I shortly after bought a new car I highly likely would just have bought a bigger car If I had extra money spare (raising my monthly expenses )

You can believe all you want, but including taxes, maintenance and whatever you can think of buying for those 9 yrs including the loss on selling was still cheaper than renting an equal object. I did my math afterwards with all costs known.
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Old 11.01.2019, 00:08
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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If they leave CH & have used their pension fund they have no choice but to sell unless they can pay off the pension fund and any cash call.
If they can't refinance the losses and thus are not in a position to sell I guess they'll stay . (unless government says they have to go offc.)
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Old 11.01.2019, 00:17
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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If they can't refinance the losses and thus are not in a position to sell I guess they'll stay . (unless government says they have to go offc.)
The Bank will require their lending is 80% of valuation or less, no chance to refinance the loss, they will have to sell. Pension fund requires any money returned as soon as it stops being a main residence.

On retirement they may not be able to refinance due to unafordbility & have to sell......
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Old 11.01.2019, 00:17
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

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Allowing B permit owners allowed people just off the 'boat' to buy property, this was a huge no of new buyers, if those buyers became sellers then 50% off would come rather quickly.
Indeed, but this will apply to those areas where the above bought in droves- and not to other areas, with much lower prices, where they did not.
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Old 11.01.2019, 03:05
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Re: Low Low interest rates -housing bubble? - inevitable price correction?

What would be interesting is that if there was website or a software that compares the actual cost of owning against renting with all the variables I.e like the tax you’d pay for owning the property, maintenance costs, buying costs, selling costs, legal fees, registration fees and the all important interest rate averaged for 25 years against what one would save in rental payments.

Furthermore, it would also be interesting to compare BTL investments against the stock market (let’s use FTSE Allshare as Benchmark) with a 25 year horizon embedded with dynamic time shifting for past actual performance and future predicted performance.

I don’t even think Quant could make that sort of detailed assessment.
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