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  #41  
Old 15.06.2020, 20:37
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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When people quote monthly mortgage payments here they tend to only quote the interest component of the mortgage which is what makes buying seem so much more attractive compared to renting. What they don't include in that monthly number is (i) the amortization payment necessary to bring the LTV of your home down from 80% to 65% over a 15 year period, and (ii) the annual maintenance expense which is assumed to be around 1% of the purchase price.

So we can take a CHF 1.5m house as an example. You put 20% down (300k) and take out a 1.2m mortgage (80% LTV). I found a 10 year fixed-rate mortgage for 0.74% which means your annual interest expense is 8,880 or 740/month. Such a place would probably rent for 3-3.5k/month which is why buying seems attractive. But, you need to factor in the annual amortization of 15,000 (1,250/month) for the next 15 years to bring the mortgage down to 975K (or 65% of the original price of 1.5m) and annual maintenance of 1% of 1.5m for 15,000 (1,250/month). That takes the total annual cash outflows for ownership to 38,769 (3,231/month).

If house prices rise by 2% annually, that house is now worth 2,018,803 in 15 years' time. Your mortgage has decreased to 975k (you amortized the loan down to 65% LTV of purchase price) and so your equity has increased to 1,043,803. You put 300k down and had outflows (interest, maintenance and amortization payments) of 569,800 over that 15 year period. Your annual return (IRR) on that 300k investment works out at 2% over the 15 year period. If house price inflation was 4% instead of 2% your IRR goes up to 7%. If there is no house price inflation and prices stay flat your IRR falls to -5%.
I don‘t disagree with your logic, but you need somewhere to live, so need to compare this to renting for 15 years (low end cost by your numbers CHF 540,000 and assuming no rises, which probably isn‘t realistic given how low the reference rate is) and investing the CHF 300,000 in something with a similar risk/return profile to the property. For simplicity let‘s say the rent is the same as your outflows. At 2% growth (yes I‘m well aware that FS has done far better than that historically FMF, but past performance etc./Equities are a different risk profile), your 300k becomes 400k.

What am I missing?
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  #42  
Old 15.06.2020, 21:12
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Re: Will housing market crash?

I think you can just look at a property standalone. If you can buy a property to live in and the accumulated rental savings over, say, 10-15 years is enough to pay off the property, then it is probably attractive and worthwhile doing as a way to diversify your portfolio.

The main issues with doing this are:

1. If you pay too much so that it doesn't meet the internal investment criteria; or
2. If you don't have enough money such that the house becomes far too big a portion of your net worth
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Old 15.06.2020, 21:16
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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I think you can just look at a property standalone. If you can buy a property to live in and the accumulated rental savings over, say, 10-15 years is enough to pay off the property, then it is probably attractive and worthwhile doing as a way to diversify your portfolio.

The main issues with doing this are:

1. If you pay too much so that it doesn't meet the internal investment criteria; or
2. If you don't have enough money such that the house becomes far too big a portion of your net worth
When you say "accumulated rental savings over, say, 10-15 years is enough to pay off the property", do you mean pay off the amortisation to bring down the LTV from 80% to 65% or do you mean pay off the entire 80% mortgage amount?
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  #44  
Old 15.06.2020, 21:18
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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When you say "accumulated rental savings over, say, 10-15 years is enough to pay off the property", do you mean pay off the amortisation to bring down the LTV from 80% to 65% or do you mean pay off the entire 80% mortgage amount?
Phil would mean pay off the entire 80%, I know the return from property he expects
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Old 15.06.2020, 22:05
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Phil would mean pay off the entire 80%, I know the return from property he expects
I estimate this translates into 6 to 8% yearly returns. Currently most people are lucky if they get 3% with a lot of properties returning under 2%. I guess at least half of the price is justified by the Swiss hot air. And the Swiss hot air is officially valued in Switzerland. The Swiss builders and real estate agents use volume for evaluating a house - a typical Swiss single house has a volume of 800m3... first time I laughed when I heard it, but it's true.
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  #46  
Old 15.06.2020, 22:36
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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I estimate this translates into 6 to 8% yearly returns. Currently most people are lucky if they get 3% with a lot of properties returning under 2%. I guess at least half of the price is justified by the Swiss hot air. And the Swiss hot air is officially valued in Switzerland. The Swiss builders and real estate agents use volume for evaluating a house - a typical Swiss single house has a volume of 800m3... first time I laughed when I heard it, but it's true.
Paying off the house in that time is unrealistic.

Anyway we’re thinking of changing our terrace this summer, something for social gatherings when we have the barbecue. I might also put in a new swing set as the old one is getting too small for the kids, it’s just a case of concreting it into the garden, a couple of hours.

We’re thinking of putting a car port out the front, not decided but it’s an idea.

Of course we can do all this if we want, because we own our house.

But I agree, invest your money in the bank, rent for 15 years and when you look at that balance you will be richer! Richer than house owning people! I bet nothing feels better than that.
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  #47  
Old 15.06.2020, 23:21
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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When you say "accumulated rental savings over, say, 10-15 years is enough to pay off the property", do you mean pay off the amortisation to bring down the LTV from 80% to 65% or do you mean pay off the entire 80% mortgage amount?
The entire amount. This is doable if you pay no more than 120x monthly rent and typically equates to around 8%-10% gross rental yield. The traditional rule of thumb was to aim for a minimum of 10% gross rental yield.

With a 10% gross rental yield, you could pay off the mortgage within 15 years even with 9% interest rates.
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Old 15.06.2020, 23:47
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Paying off the house in that time is unrealistic.
It's very realistic if you buy prudently. The first property I bought in Switzerland is coming up for re-mortgage after the 10 year fix expires. It would have been on track to be paid off within 5 more years had I not diverted most of the rental income into things other than mortgage repayments.

You can look at it in 2 alternative ways:

1. I can re-mortgage and let the tenant pay off the mortgage in 10 years - making it a 20 year pay-off time; or

2. The property has already been "paid off" since the deposit was paid back quickly from rental income and subsequent rental income was invested in the stock market which performed well enough to pay off the remainder of the mortgage and then some.

Given the indivisibile and illiquid nature of property investment (not to mention the hassle factor) it should be a highly profitable and cash generative investment. If it is not an obvious slam-dunk investment from quickly eye-balling the numbers, then it is probably not a good investment.
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  #49  
Old 16.06.2020, 08:42
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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It's very realistic if you buy prudently. The first property I bought in Switzerland is coming up for re-mortgage after the 10 year fix expires. It would have been on track to be paid off within 5 more years had I not diverted most of the rental income into things other than mortgage repayments.

You can look at it in 2 alternative ways:

1. I can re-mortgage and let the tenant pay off the mortgage in 10 years - making it a 20 year pay-off time; or

2. The property has already been "paid off" since the deposit was paid back quickly from rental income and subsequent rental income was invested in the stock market which performed well enough to pay off the remainder of the mortgage and then some.

Given the indivisibile and illiquid nature of property investment (not to mention the hassle factor) it should be a highly profitable and cash generative investment. If it is not an obvious slam-dunk investment from quickly eye-balling the numbers, then it is probably not a good investment.
It's not really the point phil I was making. Buying a house is more than just a financial transaction, that's the point I was trying to make with the possible things you can do if you live in the property you own. If you are really looking only from a financial investment standpoint then yes you can pay it quickly provided all rental returns are re-channeled into amortization and that you have 100% tenancy, i think this is the same for many of the properties here. The last 10 years is kind of a very soft viewpoint because you have had high demand, low pricing (in 2010) relatively speaking and massive growth on the stock market during that period. As long as you took that path in 2010, most investments would have followed the same outcome.

If you bought 3 months ago from now however planning the same path, you'd be looking at a very different picture, with a likely drop in values, empty tenancies digging in and the other such factors.

This conversation is purely about the investment aspect of property and whoever has done it, if they bought post around 2005 until now, they are laughing, in most cases. should you buy now ? if your going to live in it, maybe still a good idea. if your investing ? probably not.
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Old 16.06.2020, 09:08
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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I estimate this translates into 6 to 8% yearly returns. Currently most people are lucky if they get 3% with a lot of properties returning under 2%. I guess at least half of the price is justified by the Swiss hot air. And the Swiss hot air is officially valued in Switzerland. The Swiss builders and real estate agents use volume for evaluating a house - a typical Swiss single house has a volume of 800m3... first time I laughed when I heard it, but it's true.
Phil only buys property that yields 6%, don't pay too much is the golden rule of investing. Banks in CH stress test at 5.5%, so looks like Phil's no's are correct.
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Old 16.06.2020, 10:04
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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I estimate this translates into 6 to 8% yearly returns. Currently most people are lucky if they get 3% with a lot of properties returning under 2%. I guess at least half of the price is justified by the Swiss hot air. And the Swiss hot air is officially valued in Switzerland. The Swiss builders and real estate agents use volume for evaluating a house - a typical Swiss single house has a volume of 800m3... first time I laughed when I heard it, but it's true.
m3 * reference price = House value. Is acutally pretty accurate.
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Old 16.06.2020, 10:09
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Re: Will housing market crash?

As regards FMOP, isn´t there another referendum on that later this year?
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Old 16.06.2020, 10:12
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Phil only buys property that yields 6%, don't pay too much is the golden rule of investing. Banks in CH stress test at 5.5%, so looks like Phil's no's are correct.
So what, those numbers just reflect the price you rent it out, normally higher yeld, higher Risk. So 6% means you own a proprety in Argau in some town, meanwhile 3% means you own at Enge.
Also comparing % is just bad, cause 6% net yeld? gross? what referenc price?

In my opinion for buying the only thing you should ask yourseld is: Do i think this will be worth more or less in 10 to 20 years?

Also if you buy for yourself and not as an investment you dont make the same calculations, as you have other "values" that you can not price in.
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Old 16.06.2020, 11:35
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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The entire amount. This is doable if you pay no more than 120x monthly rent and typically equates to around 8%-10% gross rental yield. The traditional rule of thumb was to aim for a minimum of 10% gross rental yield.

With a 10% gross rental yield, you could pay off the mortgage within 15 years even with 9% interest rates.
Thanks Phil, would you also recommend this for an owner occupied property (no intention to rent out)?
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Old 16.06.2020, 11:38
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Buying a house is more than just a financial transaction, that's the point I was trying to make with the possible things you can do if you live in the property you own.
You can do a lot with rental properties. Re-paint, re-decorate, even major renovations. You just either need to return it back to original status when you leave or agree it with the landlord. If you plan to live long term in a property, why not upgrade the kitchen and enjoy it?

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The last 10 years is kind of a very soft viewpoint because you have had high demand, low pricing (in 2010) relatively speaking and massive growth on the stock market during that period. As long as you took that path in 2010, most investments would have followed the same outcome.
By various measures both the housing market and stock markets are overvalued. The key for both is not to buy the whole market when it is over-valued, but look for the pockets of value within the over-valued market. For this reason, I don't buy whole market ETFs as the risk/reward doesn't look great right now.
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Old 16.06.2020, 11:47
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Thanks Phil, would you also recommend this for an owner occupied property (no intention to rent out)?
Ideally, yes because you never know what life throws at you and so you may end up moving and having to convert the property into a rental. I had this happen to 2 of my properties (first when I moved to Switzerland, second when my employer relocated).

I would be mindful of what you are really paying for your housing in terms of forgone rental income, or investment opportunity costs. For some reason, people are happy to overpay hundreds of thousands of dollars for property which may equate to 5000+ per month in rent, when they would never dream of paying such vasts amount of rent - yet economically, they can be equivalent and you don't have the easy option of giving notice as a renter does!

However, if you are very secure in you job and outlook and 'know' you'll be living there for a long time, then you could view the house as kind of alternative to a bond investment: lower yield for lower volatility.
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Old 16.06.2020, 11:51
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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In my opinion for buying the only thing you should ask yourseld is: Do i think this will be worth more or less in 10 to 20 years?
I have completely the opposite view. I never buy for capital appreciation as you only have limited control over it (essentially how much you pay for it, the market conditions when you sell and how your market/improve the property). A large part depends on prevailing market conditions which are not predictable, then the bulk of the remainder is set in stone when you buy which is why it is important to buy the right property at the right price.

For Swiss properties, given the illiquid market, my assumption when buying is that I am unable to sell the property at all.
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Old 16.06.2020, 12:03
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Re: Will housing market crash?

Are there any studies which look at how living near a church decreases the value of a house?
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Old 16.06.2020, 13:08
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Ideally, yes because you never know what life throws at you and so you may end up moving and having to convert the property into a rental. I had this happen to 2 of my properties (first when I moved to Switzerland, second when my employer relocated).

I would be mindful of what you are really paying for your housing in terms of forgone rental income, or investment opportunity costs. For some reason, people are happy to overpay hundreds of thousands of dollars for property which may equate to 5000+ per month in rent, when they would never dream of paying such vasts amount of rent - yet economically, they can be equivalent and you don't have the easy option of giving notice as a renter does!

However, if you are very secure in you job and outlook and 'know' you'll be living there for a long time, then you could view the house as kind of alternative to a bond investment: lower yield for lower volatility.
Thank you Phil, appreciate the insights that you and other members are sharing on this forum!

In my situation, I plan to be in Switzerland for the next 16 years and then stay part time with my wife (Swiss) in one of the Mediterranean countries (alternate between Med and CH).

We are in the initial stages of buying a 4.5 room apartment in the Basel Land area. The kicker for us is that we also intend to buy a single family house (for self-occupancy) in the next 7-9 years and therefore either would have to 1) sell the apartment at punitive taxes or 2) rent it out and buy the house as a primary residence.

Still grappling with what would be the best course of action. Either buy the house right away (which means that we would have to certainly wait as the stock of single family houses is not that great right now).

We are still in two minds on whether
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Old 16.06.2020, 13:23
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Thank you Phil, appreciate the insights that you and other members are sharing on this forum!

In my situation, I plan to be in Switzerland for the next 16 years and then stay part time with my wife (Swiss) in one of the Mediterranean countries (alternate between Med and CH).

We are in the initial stages of buying a 4.5 room apartment in the Basel Land area. The kicker for us is that we also intend to buy a single family house (for self-occupancy) in the next 7-9 years and therefore either would have to 1) sell the apartment at punitive taxes or 2) rent it out and buy the house as a primary residence.

Still grappling with what would be the best course of action. Either buy the house right away (which means that we would have to certainly wait as the stock of single family houses is not that great right now).

We are still in two minds on whether
... to complete your post?

The stock of single family houses will always be not that great. Limited supply, large demand. In your shoes, I'd buy the apartment, remortgage it to extract equity when I wanted to upgrade to a house (or extend/take out a new mortgage over both), and rent the apartment out to help with the mortgage payments.
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