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  #81  
Old 22.06.2020, 01:54
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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The interest rate can only go up from here...
Absolutely.

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... and the price of real estate can only go down.
Absolutely not. There are two other options: the price stays static and the price goes up. The latter is more likely than the former, and probably more likely than the price going down. There are countless examples of what many believed to be an overpriced market zooming up a whole lot further. Housing in larger Swiss cities over the last 15 years or more; London from the early 90s till whenever;...

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The return on a new property yields around 7% these days. I find that return way too low for taking the risk of a 80% mortgage. Think about it: 7% return with 4 times leverage. ( 200k down payment, 800k mortgage, 2200 NET rent per month)
I don't understand your figures. Are you talking about rental yield of 7% p.a.? How do you get 7% from those numbers? Or is it capital gain (seems unlikely)?
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Old 22.06.2020, 09:32
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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I don't understand your figures. Are you talking about rental yield of 7% p.a.? How do you get 7% from those numbers? Or is it capital gain (seems unlikely)?
I think he's talking leveraged return: 1.75% x4.

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The interest rate can only go up from here and the price of real estate can only go down. This is fundamental economics.
Well the interest rate can go down further or even negative.

But I would agree overall we seem to be at the market top (caveat: the real estate market seems to spend a lot of time at increasingly new market tops...)
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  #83  
Old 23.06.2020, 02:05
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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I can relate to that and I would rather invest in real estate elsewhere with strong CHF earned here.
would you really? I'm just about to sell my 2 properties in Eastern Europe as they "appreciate like crazy", but as a matter of fact the currency exchange rate is actually killing them and the rental income of them as well. Plus you will never have such a mature market somewhere else as here (political risk).
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Old 23.06.2020, 02:10
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Re: Will housing market crash?

I'm amazed by how easy you think it is to buy property here. At least for us in the Zurich area it seems quite impossible. We commute into 2 different directions, so Oerlikon would be ideal but here's no stock of anything to be sold. We still have 2 years until the CH pass would be an option, so I can't leave canton ZH for the moment.

I wouldn't buy anything less than Minergie certified, preferably new build, and also ground floor is preferred for the kids. First, there is nothing to buy in the area with these parameters, second anything such will be around 1.5M, seems quite impossible to finance on a single (IT) income, unless I'm ready to fork out 500k on a down payment, only to find myself owning a million francs more. Well, no thank you. So far.

I know it's much cheaper in Aargau, but that mostly implies a 2-car family modell which we don't want to do just yet.
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  #85  
Old 23.06.2020, 12:25
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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I wouldn't buy anything less than Minergie certified, preferably new build, and also ground floor is preferred for the kids. First, there is nothing to buy in the area with these parameters, second anything such will be around 1.5M.
Ever noticed that 3.5 room garden flats are cheaper per m2 than 5.5 rooms? Because people who are buying 3.5 don't have kids so don't want a garden so these flats are not easily sellable. But developers have to build 3.5 garden flats anyway because that's just how multi-storey buildings are designed and probably also because the Gemeinde insists on 3.5 being built too (like Horgen, where they want to cater to a broader range of people). So... the trick is to combine two newbuild 3.5 apartments on the ground floor and the floor above.

I have seen 3 where the price works out cheaper than a 5.5 room in the same building, especially because the one with the garden is far cheaper:

1) I saw one in Horgen behind the hospital but I was a bit too late and they already poured the concrete floor on the upstairs flat, so it would cost a bit more to breakthrough for a staircase and redo the walls, but mainly the builder didn't want to deal with my requirements at such a late stage. But even at that stage of construction the 3.5 flats were still unsold..
2) I put a reservation fee on one in Wädenswil - it was for about CHF1.7m in total, when a 5.5 room one in the same building was selling for 1.6m, but had 40m2 less! I bought a house instead and gave this up without any costs because the developer was able to sell "our idea" so easily to the next buyer.
3) I found one like this in Thalwil about 3 years ago, but the seller called me just before I put down my reservation fee to tell me that it was sold to someone else. Probably stole my idea and sold it to his acquaintance...

3.5 room flats are not relatively cheap anymore I guess because generally there is a shortage, but there are still opportunities like this.

So big hint there for those of you looking for a large garden flat...
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Old 23.06.2020, 12:49
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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I'm amazed by how easy you think it is to buy property here. At least for us in the Zurich area it seems quite impossible. We commute into 2 different directions, so Oerlikon would be ideal but here's no stock of anything to be sold. We still have 2 years until the CH pass would be an option, so I can't leave canton ZH for the moment.

I wouldn't buy anything less than Minergie certified, preferably new build, and also ground floor is preferred for the kids. First, there is nothing to buy in the area with these parameters, second anything such will be around 1.5M, seems quite impossible to finance on a single (IT) income, unless I'm ready to fork out 500k on a down payment, only to find myself owning a million francs more. Well, no thank you. So far.

I know it's much cheaper in Aargau, but that mostly implies a 2-car family modell which we don't want to do just yet.
The times when average people used to buy multimillion CHF worth properties are nearly over now in big areas like Baden, Wettingen and closer towards Zurich due to frequent retrenchments and restructuring of companies (ABB, Alstom, GE) comes to mind. Salaries also tend to drop and people more forced to pursue their gems on the suburbs. Had friends few years ago abandoning and selling their flat in Wettingen and moved to Suhr where they bought much larger semidetached house for similar price as compared to Baden area.

We live in Oftringen and as a baby comes next week, we are planning to view few 4.5 rooms apartments near Zofingen and environs where prices are much nicer than in big cities. Also countryside and nature are our kind of thing so it will be more beneficial for junior to grow up there.

Also, location wise there’s never guarantee in terms of jobs stability at them moment so we wouldn’t wanna get stuck in one expensive area and commute long distance. Therefore Aargau and Solothurn are more central to any destinations within circumference of 50-70km sane commuting distance to vital places and prospective employers.

As we speak, I’m in process of arranging for viewing of a nice apartment from 1995 next week in a small community with good access to highway with price near 400k.
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Old 23.06.2020, 13:08
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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I wouldn't buy anything less than Minergie certified, preferably new build, and also ground floor is preferred for the kids. First, there is nothing to buy in the area with these parameters, second anything
if you have restrictive parameters then it isn't surprising that you can't find anything! restricting to new builds is obviously severly limiting and is also going to be costly.

having lived in a ground floor, new build minergie apartment, i would prefer non-minergie as it seems they made compromises to meet the standard.
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Old 23.06.2020, 13:12
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Ever noticed that 3.5 room garden flats are cheaper per m2 than 5.5 rooms? Because people who are buying 3.5 don't have kids so don't want a garden so these flats are not easily sellable. But developers have to build 3.5 garden flats anyway because that's just how multi-storey buildings are designed and probably also because the Gemeinde insists on 3.5 being built too (like Horgen, where they want to cater to a broader range of people). So... the trick is to combine two newbuild 3.5 apartments on the ground floor and the floor above.

I have seen 3 where the price works out cheaper than a 5.5 room in the same building, especially because the one with the garden is far cheaper:

1) I saw one in Horgen behind the hospital but I was a bit too late and they already poured the concrete floor on the upstairs flat, so it would cost a bit more to breakthrough for a staircase and redo the walls, but mainly the builder didn't want to deal with my requirements at such a late stage. But even at that stage of construction the 3.5 flats were still unsold..
2) I put a reservation fee on one in Wädenswil - it was for about CHF1.7m in total, when a 5.5 room one in the same building was selling for 1.6m, but had 40m2 less! I bought a house instead and gave this up without any costs because the developer was able to sell "our idea" so easily to the next buyer.
3) I found one like this in Thalwil about 3 years ago, but the seller called me just before I put down my reservation fee to tell me that it was sold to someone else. Probably stole my idea and sold it to his acquaintance...

3.5 room flats are not relatively cheap anymore I guess because generally there is a shortage, but there are still opportunities like this.

So big hint there for those of you looking for a large garden flat...
I actually saw opportunities in the opposite direction: large EFHs which are sub-divided or easily sub-divided where the parts are greater than the sum..
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Old 23.06.2020, 13:53
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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The times when average people used to buy multimillion CHF worth properties are nearly over now in big areas like Baden, Wettingen and closer towards Zurich due to frequent retrenchments and restructuring of companies (ABB, Alstom, GE) comes to mind
What will happen to the prices in these areas then ? Will they will drop to the 500k region to align with the suburbs do you think ? It's strange because we keep getting posters saying they can't find any housing available in these areas so are looking further out, but then the message here is no one can afford these overpriced houses so one would assume they will all soon be empty ?

Im lost.
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Old 23.06.2020, 14:48
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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So... the trick is to combine two newbuild 3.5 apartments on the ground floor and the floor above.
cheers mate, good eyes!
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Old 23.06.2020, 15:19
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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if you have restrictive parameters then it isn't surprising that you can't find anything! restricting to new builds is obviously severly limiting and is also going to be costly.

having lived in a ground floor, new build minergie apartment, i would prefer non-minergie as it seems they made compromises to meet the standard.
well I can't live in Solothurn no matter how cheap it is. Realities of Kt ZH prices make me wanna
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Old 23.06.2020, 15:23
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Also, location wise there’s never guarantee in terms of jobs stability at them moment so we wouldn’t wanna get stuck in one expensive area and commute long distance.
so you'd rather get stuck in the middle of nowhere 1+ hours driving of anything, with very little infrastructure around (as in: childcare, hospitals, shopping, schools, extracurricular activities for the kids, etc.)?

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As we speak, I’m in process of arranging for viewing of a nice apartment from 1995 next week in a small community with good access to highway with price near 400k.
Which you will need to shell out another 100k or so to renovate the heating system eventually. In a couple of years you will have invested 600-650k in that house and it still has said disadvantages. ?
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Old 23.06.2020, 15:30
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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so you'd rather get stuck in the middle of nowhere 1+ hours driving of anything, with very little infrastructure around (as in: childcare, hospitals, shopping, schools, extracurricular activities for the kids, etc.)?
agree with you. job security concerns would suggest investing in popular main cities so that you can easily rent/sell if you need to relocate.
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Old 23.06.2020, 16:16
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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so you'd rather get stuck in the middle of nowhere 1+ hours driving of anything, with very little infrastructure around (as in: childcare, hospitals, shopping, schools, extracurricular activities for the kids, etc.)?



Which you will need to shell out another 100k or so to renovate the heating system eventually. In a couple of years you will have invested 600-650k in that house and it still has said disadvantages. ?
Place has been renovated few years ago according to documentation. Heating system subject to inspection but don’t believe it will be that expensive. Of course, there can be the catch in any form that one has to be aware of, that’s why one needs to do a due diligence.

Two cars in the family.
- 10km the nearest hospital in Aarau or another one in Solothurn few stones away, probably one of the best in the region and specialized in treatments that my wife exactly needed. All amenities and facilities within reasonable commuting distance, kindergarten, bakery, butchery, shopping centers, biking for that matter is a plus.
- Truly nice Swiss landscape, we don’t mind driving.
- We can be within reasonable driving effort up to 50km anywhere e.g. Baden, Solothurn, Luzern, Basel, Waldshut etc..
- Extracurricular activities for children and adults with easy access,
- More living and breathing space compared to smoggy, sweat ridden cities.
- Pristine lake nearby and river, forest just nearly outside the house for picknick, barbecues, trails for hiking and other nature activities.

Not for city boy that true, but rural and community spirit, if you speak German and integrate well that is ...

It’s your call ...
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Old 23.06.2020, 16:32
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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well I can't live in Solothurn no matter how cheap it is. Realities of Kt ZH prices make me wanna
Many folks would disagree. Very charming Barock town on Aare with nice cafes, pubs, lounges and restaurants.

Interestingly, those that I know who couldn’t procure their perm jobs in Baden area, are working in Luterbach now. I used to work in SO for nearly three years and consider it as one of the best job assignments in decade that I have ever had. Fantastic workmates, Friday night’s beer and get togethers and barbecues on the terrace to boot.
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Old 23.06.2020, 16:37
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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What will happen to the prices in these areas then ? Will they will drop to the 500k region to align with the suburbs do you think ? It's strange because we keep getting posters saying they can't find any housing available in these areas so are looking further out, but then the message here is no one can afford these overpriced houses so one would assume they will all soon be empty ?

Im lost.
Who knows. Probably they will remain the same. All I know, that we used to get together every two weeks regularly in Baden a year ago bemused how many flats were left behind after big corporates massively retrenched their workforce due to ABB, Alstom, GE either downsizing or restructuring. Many years ago Baden, was thriving with life and to find a decent rental apartment was next to impossible.

Having said that, pretty sure that the area is very popular with newly coming expats. Maybe being an engineer, a very specialized one and working for a niche market for that matter, it is my limiting factor to become more flexible and highly employable elsewhere.
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Old 23.06.2020, 17:20
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Who knows. Probably they will remain the same. All I know, that we used to get together every two weeks regularly in Baden a year ago bemused how many flats were left behind after big corporates massively retrenched their workforce due to ABB, Alstom, GE either downsizing or restructuring. Many years ago Baden, was thriving with life and to find a decent rental apartment was next to impossible.

Having said that, pretty sure that the area is very popular with newly coming expats. Maybe being an engineer, a very specialized one and working for a niche market for that matter, it is my limiting factor to become more flexible and highly employable elsewhere.
I think they will remain the same. We always hear the bad news - large corps doing re-orgs, but the key metrics are the official figures and the swiss figures were going fairly well in terms of unemployment, salaries etc. Here down in Vaud when Nestle did their most recent shakeup kicking out 600 IT Workers (of which I was one) there were endless stories about collapse in house prices in the area, end of the economy, that sort of thing. In fact nestle continue to hire, there is a steady flow of people, prices have remained stable. I expect its the same up there.

Buying further out is something we thought of as well - and yes its much much cheaper - but we are also thinking of sellability and selling around the lake region is a lot easier than selling further back, so you do pay needlessly but it is with a reason.

The big rises house price since around 2004 are unlikely, but the country is stable, has low tax and high salaries, so like other similar locations they are not experiencing the doom scenario that has been predicted now for many years.

Of course, something like a global Pandemic, well that might change everything......
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Old 23.06.2020, 23:49
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Place has been renovated few years ago according to documentation. Heating system subject to inspection but don’t believe it will be that expensive. Of course, there can be the catch in any form that one has to be aware of, that’s why one needs to do a due diligence.
seems you got it all figured out, congrats, hope the place will be the one you wanted!

Having the (necessary) 2-car modell adds about 10k to the yearly budget, though. It still might be worth though if you can buy something for 400k instead of 1.4M here around Zürich...

If I put anything (4.5+) into Homegate for Kt ZH all that comes out is either the end of nowhere or 1M+
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Old 24.06.2020, 00:08
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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seems you got it all figured out, congrats, hope the place will be the one you wanted!

Having the (necessary) 2-car modell adds about 10k to the yearly budget, though. It still might be worth though if you can buy something for 400k instead of 1.4M here around Zürich...

If I put anything (4.5+) into Homegate for Kt ZH all that comes out is either the end of nowhere or 1M+
The truth is we have been lurking the lifestyle, pros and cons of renting vs home ownership for a very long time. We own several rental properties on two different continents but none in CH. Maybe our mistake. There’s no win-win situation when it comes to big financial decisions, and stuff can go wrong along the way. You also wanna live your life comfortable and without too much sacrifices.

Perhaps turning point is arrival of the baby that gives you a natural boost of extra energy to be willing to engage another gear and time to give your best again, time to get out of comfort zone. Hence compromises and new challenges. I’m not willing to sign an insane amount of house bond for e.g. 1.5M though, knowing it is far beyond our means.
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Old 24.06.2020, 00:16
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Re: Will housing market crash?

Ok, just to check if my idea still works - I did a search on Homegate for 3.5 room apartments. I chose the 3rd item on the result list as it looks like it hasn't been built yet. I ended up here:

https://www.obstberg-horw.ch/eigentum

Quick look at the plans and found B12 and B22, a 2.5 and a 3.5 which is on top of each other (the clue is in the apartment numbers). Combined price is CHF1.67m, for 183m2. Ok, minus 10m2 for the stairwell you will have to build, but you can pay for it with the refund from the second kitchen.

The 5.5 room in the same building is going for CHF1.515m, for 136m2.

Around 9.5k per sqm vs 11k per sqm...

I have no idea where this project is, it was just the first thing that caught my eye in Homegate, and it took me longer to post this than to find those 2 flats

Happy hunting.
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