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  #101  
Old 23.06.2020, 23:44
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Ok, just to check if my idea still works - I did a search on Homegate for 3.5 room apartments. I chose the 3rd item on the result list as it looks like it hasn't been built yet. I ended up here:

https://www.obstberg-horw.ch/eigentum
that works, but:
- Kt LU - impossible to commute to Kt ZH from here, also much much cheaper to buy a house in AG instead.
- still 1.7M

The place looks great, though.
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  #102  
Old 24.06.2020, 01:12
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Perhaps turning point is arrival of the baby that gives you a natural boost of extra energy to be willing to engage another gear and time to give your best again...
Congratulations! All good wishes!
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  #103  
Old 24.06.2020, 01:15
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Congratulations! All good wishes!
Thank you.
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  #104  
Old 24.06.2020, 09:28
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Re: Will housing market crash?

For what it's worth, I don't think there will be a housing crash because I believe that the really low interest rates we have at the moment are here to stay for the foreseeable.

I bought a good few years ago in Switzerland where the prices were a lot better than they are today (but a lot worse than 5-10 years before that). It seems to me that prices have stagnated in recent years, although I'm not following the market closely.

Having a house with a garden was worth its weight in gold during the lockdown. Now however with the changes post lockdown, I'm now wondering if it would be good to be on the hunt for a house again. With the changes to working from home that we're going to see in the coming months and years, it does make me wonder if I shouldn't sell up and move to an enormous farmhouse with a fantastic view on the side of a mountain somewhere in deepest Innerschweiz!
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  #105  
Old 24.06.2020, 09:43
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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that works, but:
- Kt LU - impossible to commute to Kt ZH from here, also much much cheaper to buy a house in AG instead.
- still 1.7M

The place looks great, though.
yeah it is a nice place
also the taxes for LU are to be considered...
commuting works from LU to ZH only by train
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  #106  
Old 24.06.2020, 10:23
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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We are new to CH and I wonder if we should buy a house now or wait to see if the prices adjust. I realize that this is a far more stable market than US, but do you think the COVID fiasco will cause a price decrease?
Also some Swiss friends of mine tell me that a correction is overdue in the CH housing market and it is bound to happen soon.
FYI, I am interested to buy something with 3BR in Lausanne/Morge area. I rather invest on lake view than square footage.

I realize no one can know the answer for sure but I would like to hear Thank your advise/opinions. Thank you!



Hey Miu,
Its hard to predict in any country whether prices will go up or down - however based on supply & demand, I believe it is fairly safe to assume that a lake-view property in Switzerland would at least retain its value. They are sought after and are not in particularly high supply.


If you really have that as a must in your feature list for a property I would expect to have some difficulty finding the property (the market isn't saturated with them).


To put it another way if the market started to deflate you will see it in other property types (and locations) first.
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  #107  
Old 24.06.2020, 11:29
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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yeah it is a nice place
also the taxes for LU are to be considered...
commuting works from LU to ZH only by train
I had no clue where this is. I just did a search for 3.5 rooms in "Region zurich" and chose the first one on the list which is unbuilt and looking like a multistorey development. I didn't realize that Region Zurich includes the neighbouring cantons.

I just wanted to show that putting together 2 small apartment is much better value than 1 large apartment. And because most people here only buy apartments because they are starting a family, there is far less competition for the smaller apartments, especially small ones with a garden.
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  #108  
Old 24.06.2020, 12:29
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Re: Will housing market crash?

Just to remind people 'Demand' is the ability to pay, this usually translates as easily available credit, it has nothing to do with the desire of people to buy which is often forgotten.
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  #109  
Old 24.06.2020, 12:38
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Re: Will housing market crash?

Housing market in CH is a rigged game, only around 30% are private homeowners (mortgaged or not) the rest are institutions, pensions funds, banks, insurance companies...

Prices will go down if the establishment has something to gain from it
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  #110  
Old 28.06.2020, 22:11
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Properties in and around Zug tend to go close to their asking prices (+/- 10%), though the market is not transparent. Forced sales are relatively rare . Properties can stay on the market for years (literally) if they are over-priced. Bank estimates are going to be conservative.
You can always make a very low offer, you will find out quickly if it is high enough for negotiations to start.

interesting situation: one bank estimated the property 10% less than the other. looks to me suspicious..
any concern? or is it normal situation?
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  #111  
Old 29.06.2020, 09:54
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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interesting situation: one bank estimated the property 10% less than the other. looks to me suspicious..
any concern? or is it normal situation?
Normal, banks want a spread of risk across regions and borrowers so one bank might not want more business in a particular area or occupation so they value extra conservatively where as another is searching business so they value higher.
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  #112  
Old 29.06.2020, 10:34
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Ok, just to check if my idea still works - I did a search on Homegate for 3.5 room apartments. I chose the 3rd item on the result list as it looks like it hasn't been built yet. I ended up here:

https://www.obstberg-horw.ch/eigentum

Quick look at the plans and found B12 and B22, a 2.5 and a 3.5 which is on top of each other (the clue is in the apartment numbers). Combined price is CHF1.67m, for 183m2. Ok, minus 10m2 for the stairwell you will have to build, but you can pay for it with the refund from the second kitchen.

The 5.5 room in the same building is going for CHF1.515m, for 136m2.

Around 9.5k per sqm vs 11k per sqm...

I have no idea where this project is, it was just the first thing that caught my eye in Homegate, and it took me longer to post this than to find those 2 flats

Happy hunting.
There are advantages and disadvantages in new builds (especially offplan newbuilds) in that the final price is always higher then the advertised selling price once you change a few things to get it how you need. The price of a new build is not directly related to quality it is how much the market will pay and how long the developer is willing to hold the property until they get their price. Where as with an older apartment, renovating gets you the finish and style of your choice, more choice on locations, it has tax advantages and reduces the initial outlay.
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  #113  
Old 29.06.2020, 11:29
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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There are advantages and disadvantages in new builds (especially offplan newbuilds) in that the final price is always higher then the advertised selling price once you change a few things to get it how you need. The price of a new build is not directly related to quality it is how much the market will pay and how long the developer is willing to hold the property until they get their price. Where as with an older apartment, renovating gets you the finish and style of your choice, more choice on locations, it has tax advantages and reduces the initial outlay.
My experience from other countries also tells me that slightly older buildings were more solidly built then the new ones in terms of quality of material and finish. Not sure if this also applies to Switzerland.
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  #114  
Old 29.06.2020, 11:33
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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My experience from other countries also tells me that slightly older buildings were more solidly built then the new ones in terms of quality of material and finish. Not sure if this also applies to Switzerland.
In Switzerland, it's the other way round! Newer builds are better insulated and of a very high quality...
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  #115  
Old 29.06.2020, 11:40
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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In Switzerland, it's the other way round! Newer builds are better insulated and of a very high quality...
Especially since the building materials have advanced somewhat since the 1500s and 1600s
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  #116  
Old 20.09.2020, 11:35
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Re: Will housing market crash?

Problem with "Lake view" properties is that often they do not stay this way. In fact, any "view" is endangered species.



New houses are being build around, mostly by developers that squeeze every millimeter in both size and volume out of their plots. Agricultural zones are slowly changed into building zones and building zones are upgraded to denser ones.


I have seen a few of such "horror" scenarios in recent months while looking for a home, either new building projects that block out view of many villas behind or a seemingly excellent offer with breathtaking view and when you go take a look you realize there are "building planning poles" standing all around this property.


Take a look at historical areal images of almost any location and see how housing is slowly eating away the land. This villa, while not being on the lake is a excellent example, it used to be awesome stand-alone, sunny place in 80es, now it is completely locked by other buildings and lost view / evening sunsets.



Personally I gave up entirely on "view" properties.
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  #117  
Old 20.09.2020, 11:55
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Re: Will housing market crash?

Very good point- we have chosen a property where the view could never be taken away- with that in mind exactly.
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  #118  
Old 20.09.2020, 12:01
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Re: Will housing market crash?

Swiss banks are very, very unlikely to flood market with private houses and thus cause drop in prices. Failure to pay amortization, comply with income requirements during renewal or lower valuation of your house are all unlikely to result in repossession as long as you are able to pay interest. Banks take a long to very long perspective here and are more interested to keep real estate market prices stable then to recover credit.

The only reliable way how a person can have house taken away / thrown on the market today (and in the 90es) in Switzerland is/was private bankruptcy.
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  #119  
Old 20.09.2020, 13:44
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Swiss banks are very, very unlikely to flood market with private houses and thus cause drop in prices. Failure to pay amortization, comply with income requirements during renewal or lower valuation of your house are all unlikely to result in repossession as long as you are able to pay interest. Banks take a long to very long perspective here and are more interested to keep real estate market prices stable then to recover credit.

The only reliable way how a person can have house taken away / thrown on the market today (and in the 90es) in Switzerland is/was private bankruptcy.
If people are in default then the Bank is required to have a higher solvency ratio against those loans, so will take action. People who fail to pay are unlikely to have adequate income so a double whammy for the Bank.
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  #120  
Old 20.09.2020, 13:55
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Especially since the building materials have advanced somewhat since the 1500s and 1600s

Our 1587 90cm stone walls are rock solid, as per their name- and insulate really well
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