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  #121  
Old 20.09.2020, 13:59
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Our 1587 90cm stone walls are rock solid, as per their name- and insulate really well
I would be interested what energy rating your house would have, no idea if they do that sort of thing in C.H., however minergy are probably better.
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  #122  
Old 20.09.2020, 14:07
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Re: Will housing market crash?

LOL - a lot better than our 1920s single brick house with Kritter windows in UK, for sure.


It's cool in Summer, cosy in winter- good double windows, huge stone clad woodburner, solar panels for hot water (and bright sun most of winter), and oil. Good double windows- could not stand minergie- as I like to have windows opened all the time in Summer, and often in winter- cannot sleep in room without windows opened bliss
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  #123  
Old 20.09.2020, 14:09
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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If people are in default then the Bank is required to have a higher solvency ratio against those loans, so will take action. People who fail to pay are unlikely to have adequate income so a double whammy for the Bank.

Depends how you classify default, a private bankruptcy - yes, unable to pay interest - yes but everything else is grey zone.


I was told by bankers that work for over 30 years in this business that here in Switzerland banks will do everything in their power to avoid repossessions and market flooding, it simply is not in their interest. They take long term view and even if -for example- house prices drop by 25% they will see it as a dip, not permanent (from perspective of human lifetime) condition and will prefer to keep existing mortgages even if required collateral is not given and "rules" are violated.



It would take something akin to World War 3 or Plaque epidemics (i.e. massive reduction of population) to permanently drop housing prices.
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  #124  
Old 20.09.2020, 14:15
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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LOL - a lot better than our 1920s single brick house with Kritter windows in UK, for sure.


It's cool in Summer, cosy in winter- good double windows, huge stone clad woodburner, solar panels for hot water (and bright sun most of winter), and oil. Good double windows- could not stand minergie- as I like to have windows opened all the time in Summer, and often in winter- cannot sleep in room without windows opened bliss
Most UK homes from 1920 on have cavity walls, single windows for sure.

I suspect your Swiss windows are not original. The windows in a minergie house should be able to open, if not then it's a higher energy saving standard the builders went for.
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  #125  
Old 20.09.2020, 14:18
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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It's cool in Summer, cosy in winter- good double windows, huge stone clad woodburner, solar panels for hot water (and bright sun most of winter), and oil. Good double windows- could not stand minergie- as I like to have windows opened all the time in Summer, and often in winter- cannot sleep in room without windows opened bliss

People are quite crazy about "Minergie" but of course how you live in your house can completely negate entire standard.


We keep windows open in summer and winter and only close them in rain / high wind situations, sometimes this means that we are wearing thin down jackets in our home and sleeping under several down blankets but that's our choice, thus massive concrete home frame and double glass windows from last millennia are more then sufficient.
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  #126  
Old 20.09.2020, 14:41
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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People are quite crazy about "Minergie" but of course how you live in your house can completely negate entire standard.


We keep windows open in summer and winter and only close them in rain / high wind situations, sometimes this means that we are wearing thin down jackets in our home and sleeping under several down blankets but that's our choice, thus massive concrete home frame and double glass windows from last millennia are more then sufficient.
Doing your bit to increase global warming, don't let the locals know.
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  #127  
Old 20.09.2020, 15:05
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Problem with "Lake view" properties is that often they do not stay this way. In fact, any "view" is endangered species.
Around my area, one has to assume that any square centimeter you do not own yourself will soon have a multi family concrete box built upon it. You can't count on a view lasting more than the next constructin season - in fact, most new builds on a slope are planned so the view will disappear wth the next phases of a development. That of course is never told to the buyers of phase one, who paid an extra million for that view.

Many people buy thinking they are protected because the surrounding land is zoned unbuildable. In reality that only means that one can't build on it today. Tomorrow, with deep pockets and Vitamin B, a developer will get that zoning changed, count on it. And your view disappears.

Buying property around here is a master class in caveat emptor.

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People are quite crazy about "Minergie" but of course how you live in your house can completely negate entire standard.


We keep windows open in summer and winter and only close them in rain / high wind situations, sometimes this means that we are wearing thin down jackets in our home and sleeping under several down blankets but that's our choice, thus massive concrete home frame and double glass windows from last millennia are more then sufficient.
I, too, am skeptical of minergie construction given how we live. I rarely heat the house above 15-18 degrees even in the dead of winter. The minergie houses I have visited feel like saunas to me; room temps to mid 20s are simply unliveable to us.

Now - I don't own a minergie home, so don't fully understand the technology. Does 'something' really keep running in the summer? If so, that seems a waste. Is my perception of temperature controls wrong? Can temps be lowered to my (apparently un-Swiss) comfort level?

Discussions with heating tech guys when we replaced our non-minergie furnace some years ago were bad enough. Getting them to understand that the Swiss-norm factory setting of 23 room temp in winter was far too warm ended with a lot of 'computer says no' runarounds. Finally had to go to the factory engineer to get the magic code to allow lower room temperature settings. WTF?

I know from discussions with neighbors, who all have the same house layout, we use somewhere between a quarter and half the oil that they do. Simply by keeping the room temps down a bit.

My 'minergie'? If you are cold, put on a sweater!
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  #128  
Old 20.09.2020, 15:22
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Doing your bit to increase global warming, don't let the locals know.

How so? We are not "heating the outdoors", in fact my 200m2 offices in the massive concrete building have had heating turned off entirely for over 10 years now, landlord even came by because they thought we tampered with counters.



And at home only bathrooms get heated seriously, the rest is either off or on a minimal setting. I doubt that our energy usage / global warming contribution is higher then others, as meloncollie says: Our "Minergie" is a down jacket or a sweater.


We are living in a fairly gentle climate, as long as thermometer is above 0 all you really need to be comfortable is absence of wind and good clothing during the day / blankets at night.


Cheers
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  #129  
Old 20.09.2020, 15:32
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Re: Will housing market crash?

Melon, we have a Church and large grounds beyond our Southern wall - and our own fields to North and East, and the access road to the West, with the neighbour's large garden and house. So, risk 0.


We only heat a small % of our property- and the guest suites only when we have ... guests. Another part only when we have events- and the rest... never. the woodburning stove is enough to heat all our living areas in all weathers.


And yes, windows not 16C originals- they would have been much smaller then, and square. Enlarged much later, and previously had 2 sets of panes per window, on hooks for the second winter set. Current double glazed windows were fitted in the 80s and in prefect condition. We also have wooden shutters to help with insulation.
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  #130  
Old 20.09.2020, 15:38
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Depends how you classify default, a private bankruptcy - yes, unable to pay interest - yes but everything else is grey zone.


I was told by bankers that work for over 30 years in this business that here in Switzerland banks will do everything in their power to avoid repossessions and market flooding, it simply is not in their interest. They take long term view and even if -for example- house prices drop by 25% they will see it as a dip, not permanent (from perspective of human lifetime) condition and will prefer to keep existing mortgages even if required collateral is not given and "rules" are violated.



It would take something akin to World War 3 or Plaque epidemics (i.e. massive reduction of population) to permanently drop housing prices.
There was a lot of changes since the housing crash here, I think it was in the 90's to prevent this.

One of this is the -ten- year lock in and also making any tax advantage for doing flips just not worth doing.

I have my own view on this as I got wiped out in 1992 in the UK.

Definitely going to write about this but on another thread. I know for certain that some people are going to disagree with me.

Overall I agree thank bankers and institutions will work with people to avoid default.

In my case my -ex- had bad advice for a period of time during divorce proceedings and I was getting crucified and even borrowed money on a credit card at over 24% interest to avoid repossession.

Lucky for me she came to her senses in time ...
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  #131  
Old 20.09.2020, 16:21
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Re: Will housing market crash?

3 Rooms appartment with two balconies bought in 2006 in canton Zug with 340k was sold this summer with 600k.


The selling tax was 23.9k


One can only dream about prices going down..
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  #132  
Old 20.09.2020, 16:49
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Re: Will housing market crash?

My cynicism wrt the Swiss housing market notwithstanding, I don't see prices coming down in the near future. At least not for single family homes or larger maisonette type flats.

WFH has shown us that the tiny shoeboxes that are have become the norm in the last decades are really not not liveable if WFH becomes our brave new world. In order to combine work and family life under one roof people have to have more space, and more importantly divideable space. Or second homes/alternative spaces.

In the small section of the market that I keep my eye on, I see prices for such properties rising, not falling, due to this new demand.

Is this sustainable? Will WFH become the new norm or will the corporate excitement over cost shifting fade away? Heck, will we even have jobs two years from now? Who knows.

But in the short term, I would not worry about prices falling for larger properties - if only because there are so few available to meet this changing demand.

In the long run... sorry, crystal ball is broken.
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  #133  
Old 20.09.2020, 16:59
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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3 Rooms appartment with two balconies bought in 2006 in canton Zug with 340k was sold this summer with 600k.


The selling tax was 23.9k


One can only dream about prices going down..
2006 340k chf = £145k
2020 600k chf = £512k

Thats a pretty good increase & slightly better than London prices, however IIRC prices in 2006 were way below peak prices from 20 years earlier. Still looks good value at 600k
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  #134  
Old 21.09.2020, 18:58
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Re: Will housing market crash?

markets are circles

there is bullish markets and bearish.
when there is crisis there is not enough of liquity its liqutity crisis.
usually market circle is 10 years.
but if the housing market has been not crashed in switzerland yet the whole world there is hosing crashes and if the switzerland is still stable i dont think it will happend any time soon in switzerland-.
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  #135  
Old 22.09.2020, 09:21
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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markets are circles

there is bullish markets and bearish.
when there is crisis there is not enough of liquity its liqutity crisis.
usually market circle is 10 years.
but if the housing market has been not crashed in switzerland yet the whole world there is hosing crashes and if the switzerland is still stable i dont think it will happend any time soon in switzerland-.
If the whole world crashes, then Switzerland - being so export driven - is also gonna crash. Not in the first wave, but it will eventually spiral in in the second wave at least. Less consumption, less exports, less to produce, less jobs needed, results in dipping demand which results in either falling property prices or falling supply (or both). On the other hand if we crawl out of covid fine, interest rates will need to start rising which means property prices will slowly slide.

The housing market I see works rather hand in hand with global economics than on its own. This last phase is far longer than 10 yrs now.
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  #136  
Old 22.09.2020, 09:34
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Re: Will housing market crash?

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Problem with "Lake view" properties is that often they do not stay this way. In fact, any "view" is endangered species.

New houses are being build around, mostly by developers that squeeze every millimeter in both size and volume out of their plots. Agricultural zones are slowly changed into building zones and building zones are upgraded to denser ones.

I have seen a few of such "horror" scenarios in recent months while looking for a home, either new building projects that block out view of many villas behind or a seemingly excellent offer with breathtaking view and when you go take a look you realize there are "building planning poles" standing all around this property.

Take a look at historical areal images of almost any location and see how housing is slowly eating away the land. This villa, while not being on the lake is a excellent example, it used to be awesome stand-alone, sunny place in 80es, now it is completely locked by other buildings and lost view / evening sunsets.

Personally I gave up entirely on "view" properties.
Not just views, infrastructure projects too. In a village where a friend of mine lives, some poor family has had about 40-50% of the value wiped off their house because a new ring road will be built directly in front of their house. Previously it was secluded and surrounded by green fields. Within 2 years there'll be a busy bypass on their doorstep.

No chance to sell now, so it's a choice of either selling at a low price in a few years time of living with the road.
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