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Old 14.01.2011, 19:56
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Obama - what chance has he got?

It was amazing that he actually got there. After his fantastic speech 2 days ago, it was stated here that the only thing is good at is rhetoric, because he has achieved little so far. Those of us who have visited the States often (including Arizona) did realise that he did not stand much chance of ever achieving his plans. The teaparty is a lot of people- I've met many of them and many are virulent in the extreme. But they represent the 'money', banks, big business and the 'old' power- how can Obama go forward? I know many Americans who would rather scupper the country rather than see Obama succeed with any of his plans.

Last edited by Odile; 14.01.2011 at 20:07.
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Old 14.01.2011, 20:20
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

It's a bit scattershot the question, but the answer, broadly, is that he stands a pretty good shot. The next two years will be uncomfortable, especially with the Republicans having subpoena power, but he has shown himself to be a remarkably capable and surprisingly sharp-elbowed politician these last few years. He also has a major advantage in that Republican party is really lacking any first-tier talent to challenge him, or an especially coherent message they can move forward with.

Of course, he also lives by the same law as everyone president: economy good - President good. Economy bad - President bad. So, all bets are off depending on how the economy is perceived to be doing.
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Old 14.01.2011, 20:30
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

The Republicans being in charge will be a good thing for him. A lot of pain in the butt but it will serve him well. Because now, no matter he wants to do, no matter the law he wants to pass, Republicans will want to stop it. And at the end of his mandat, he will be able to say:

See? I wanted to do this and that, but those are the one who stop me! The bad guy's sticker will be well shared with them!

He got the best position possible for the next two years.
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Old 14.01.2011, 21:11
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

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The Republicans being in charge will be a good thing for him. A lot of pain in the butt but it will serve him well. Because now, no matter he wants to do, no matter the law he wants to pass, Republicans will want to stop it. And at the end of his mandat, he will be able to say:

See? I wanted to do this and that, but those are the one who stop me! The bad guy's sticker will be well shared with them!

He got the best position possible for the next two years.
Maybe for him, but nothing will get done and two years lost. All elected officials should cut the BS and remember they are there for the good of their constituents and to make the country better. Naive, yes <sigh>.
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Old 14.01.2011, 21:17
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

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Maybe for him, but nothing will get done and two years lost. All elected officials should cut the BS and remember they are there for the good of their constituents and to make the country better. Naive, yes <sigh>.
Yes, you are right. In the best of the world... Experts said it will keep him away of the bad guy sticker enough to get him the next elections as well. Which could help him have a much better position. We'll see...
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Old 15.01.2011, 22:09
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

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The Republicans being in charge will be a good thing for him. A lot of pain in the butt but it will serve him well. Because now, no matter he wants to do, no matter the law he wants to pass, Republicans will want to stop it. And at the end of his mandat, he will be able to say:

See? I wanted to do this and that, but those are the one who stop me! The bad guy's sticker will be well shared with them!

He got the best position possible for the next two years.
Yes, that's not at all what opposing political parties have done in the past.

When the Republicans are in power, the Dems are the spoilers.
When the Democrats are in power, the Republicans are the spoilers.

Same old, same old.

When you look at the facts and reactions, both parties are hypocritical. When GWB hired Petraeus, the Democrats howled bloody murder. When Obama hired Petraeus, it was hallowed as the best thing since sliced bread.

Actually, the Republican power is a good thing for him, but not because he can blame them (although he almost certainly will). This is not a positive path, because it divides rather than unites. The last thing they need is further division. The polemics in the US were pretty bad and I think it's because the Democrats had nearly absolute power. Absolute power is never a good thing. The system works best when there is a rational basis to discuss the issue and find common ground.
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Old 16.01.2011, 00:00
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

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The Republicans being in charge will be a good thing for him. A lot of pain in the butt but it will serve him well. Because now, no matter he wants to do, no matter the law he wants to pass, Republicans will want to stop it. And at the end of his mandat, he will be able to say:

See? I wanted to do this and that, but those are the one who stop me! The bad guy's sticker will be well shared with them!

He got the best position possible for the next two years.
Good Point...
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Old 16.01.2011, 00:23
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

Politics aside. If the unemployment numbers don't go down this year, he has no chance in hell.

Personally, I think it may be too late.
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Old 16.01.2011, 06:14
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

His popularity ratings are up. Moderate Republicans are less happy with their leaders. Tea party people believe that the Republicans must stand up tp Obama. Amongst moderate Republicans, a very slight majority think that the Rrepublicans should work with him- According to Pew

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1856/oba...arty-influence

So, given the misgivings many Americans have about having the first 'man of colour' as president, and being in office at one of the worst times in US history he's doing very well!
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Old 16.01.2011, 09:46
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

"what chance has he got?"

To do what may I ask? Be elected again you mean? Then I'd have to say none. He only got in because after Bush, no white man wanted the job. By the next election it'll all be back to normal with stupid, white men running the country and women, hispanic or afro-americans will be admitted for cleaning only in the white house.
Well, that's my take on it.

Last edited by i-b-deborah; 16.01.2011 at 13:25. Reason: spl
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Old 16.01.2011, 12:41
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

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...it was stated here that the only thing is good at is rhetoric, because he has achieved little so far.
Well, history will be the ultimate judge, but fifty years from now I think it will be Obama who was credited with introducing healthcare reform that marks the biggest social change since the introduction of Social Security. And that his intervention with the stimulus package, while not a silver bullet, prevented a much more serious collapse of the economic system.
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Old 16.01.2011, 14:19
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

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Well, history will be the ultimate judge, but fifty years from now I think it will be Obama who was credited with introducing healthcare reform that marks the biggest social change since the introduction of Social Security. And that his intervention with the stimulus package, while not a silver bullet, prevented a much more serious collapse of the economic system.
Actually I believe the opposite. Obama will be remembered as the guy who:

- Increased public debt to 14 trillion -and increasing-, producing an unprecedented debt-to-gdp ratio after WWII.
- Sacrificed the long term economic future of America in order to achieve his short-term political objectives.
- In doing so, sacrificed the defense budget in such a magnitude, that enabled other countries to narrow down their military capability distance with the US.

The USA is moving towards a high inflation scenario in which everyone is going to see their US dollar savings and income dwindle through a de facto inflationary tax.

Obama is responsible for the very bleak future America is facing. He had the chance to do things right but he made it even worse.
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Old 16.01.2011, 14:33
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

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- Sacrificed the long term economic future of America in order to achieve his short-term political objectives.
No this is something to thank Bush for.
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Old 16.01.2011, 15:06
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

He will have a billion dollar campaign and he will get back in.
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Old 16.01.2011, 15:31
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

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The USA is moving towards a high inflation scenario in which everyone is going to see their US dollar savings and income dwindle through a de facto inflationary tax.
You've been listening to too much propaganda. Taxes have gone down under Obama, and inflation is hovering around 1%, the lowest its ever been.

Of course there's no room for actual facts in the right-wing world view, so I don't expect you to acknowledge or even believe this, it just happens to be true.
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Old 16.01.2011, 15:34
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

It is is true- then it seems amazing - as Republican money has been bled out of the country by any means possible.
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Old 16.01.2011, 19:46
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

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- Increased public debt to 14 trillion -and increasing-, producing an unprecedented debt-to-gdp ratio after WWII.
- Sacrificed the long term economic future of America in order to achieve his short-term political objectives.
Reagan ballooned the deficit in peacetime, and yanked economic rug out from under his successor - yet strangely that's not how he's remembered. Somehow, deficits never seem to figure into a president's legacy.

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- In doing so, sacrificed the defense budget in such a magnitude, that enabled other countries to narrow down their military capability distance with the US.
Today, the US is half of all military spending on planet earth. 25% of all spending comes from US allies (largely NATO). This is a 3-to-1 ratio of US/friendly to unfriendly expenditures, and that includes China and Russia, neither of whom can afford a war with the US economically. To put it bluntly - American defense spending is far past insane.

Further the so-called defense cuts have taken the form of reductions in the rate of increase. There has yet to be a single year where we spent less than the previous year (which is what most people call a cut). To criticize someone simultaneously for the US Budget deficit, but then declare they absolutely cannot touch defense spending is a profoundly unserious argument.

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The USA is moving towards a high inflation scenario in which everyone is going to see their US dollar savings and income dwindle through a de facto inflationary tax.

Obama is responsible for the very bleak future America is facing. He had the chance to do things right but he made it even worse.
Inflation is hovering around 1%, with the Fed desperately trying to avoid DEflation. The US economy could experience 4% inflation (the Volcker Rule during the Reagan administration) for half a decade before the economy would recover to it's old growth trend. The US has plenty of problems, but inflation is not one of them.
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Old 17.01.2011, 00:16
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

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Somehow, deficits never seem to figure into a president's legacy...China and Russia, neither of whom can afford a war with the US economically. To put it bluntly - American defense spending is far past insane... Further the so-called defense cuts have taken the form of reductions in the rate of increase. There has yet to be a single year where we spent less than the previous year (which is what most people call a cut). To criticize someone simultaneously for the US Budget deficit, but then declare they absolutely cannot touch defense spending is a profoundly unserious argument.

Inflation is hovering around 1%, with the Fed desperately trying to avoid DEflation. The US economy could experience 4% inflation (the Volcker Rule during the Reagan administration) for half a decade before the economy would recover to it's old growth trend. The US has plenty of problems, but inflation is not one of them.
True: deficits don't seem to affect the office that created it, nothing new, Obama is following this philosophy.

China can't afford a war with the USA today, it will be able to do so in the future. And future -if you carefully read my post- is what I was talking about.
And future inflation is also what I was talking about, I read the newspapers, I know that there is no inflation but thanks for clarifying the evident anyway (although some argue that there already is a lot of asset inflation, but thats another issue).

The US defense expenditure stands at 800 Bn, healthcare and pensions, each at 1 Tr and the plan is to significantly increase healthcare. Pensions are a given fact.

Inevitably, the US will be forced to reduce expenditure because the markets for treasuries will eventually collapse. When this happens, the defense budget is the one that is going to be cut. It is very difficult to cut pensions and healthcare once they are provided, you just don't get elected again.

When dealing with economics, you always have to assess the long term impact of decisions you take today, otherwise you end up like Keynes, believing stupid la-la world things about how an economy really works.

Hopefully, we will still be here in EF and we will be able to remind each other (3 or 4 years time from now) about our good or bad judgement on these issues.
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Old 17.01.2011, 00:56
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

While I might agree that unemployment numbers are important during the presidential race, who do you think can galvanize voters from the GOP?

IMO, Obama may not be popular with the swing vote, but I don't see anyone from the GOP that is more popular. Neocons and Tea Partiers are too radical for moderates...

Thus, Obama by a hair...

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Politics aside. If the unemployment numbers don't go down this year, he has no chance in hell.

Personally, I think it may be too late.

Last edited by fduvall; 17.01.2011 at 01:43. Reason: oops, grammar
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Old 17.01.2011, 01:25
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Re: Obama - what chance has he got?

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While I might agree that unemployment numbers are important during the presidential race, who do you think can galvanize voters from the GOP?

IMO, Obama may not be popular with the swing vote, but I don't see anyone from the GOP that is more popular. Neocons and Tea Partiers are to radical for moderates...

Thus, Obama by a hair...

fduvall
Mitt Romney is the only worthy opponent. Another Harvard boy- he will definitely give Obama a run for his money, but not if they tie the Palin ball and chain on him. Romney might even convince Powell to step back in to support him.

Heck what am I saying, I'd better stop
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