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  #1261  
Old 04.07.2013, 09:26
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

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Are the normal workers better off now after the Arab Spring in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen? I suspect there is higher unemployment and a whole new situation with new problems for the normal citizen.

I suspect some of the old businesses have folded, and nothing has yet taken up the slack. The new people are probably just as corrupt, but have not yet been caught with their hands in the honey pot?

Maybe I am cynical, but we haven't heard much good or bad news from those countries, except of course from Egypt.

When I look at the total number of deaths in the Arab disputes, at least 122,500, I have to wonder if it has been worth it? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring

.
About "Are the normal workers better off now after the Arab Spring in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen"

Good question but is it relevant? I thought the people dying in the Arab Spring were looking for democracy, not pay rises?
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  #1262  
Old 04.07.2013, 10:15
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

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I have faith in the people...what people want is what's gonna happen
Generally, I think it is positive that the population has some sense of empowerment and influence over the course of their path. It is better than passive hopelessness under tyrannical rule. But the euphoria after an overthrow is a fleeting sentiment. When it wears off, many people will feel they need another dose. This cannot feed people, and should not be applied as an answer to every problem.

I don't think this situation is over yet. This happened so quickly that the Muslim Brotherhood has not had time to react. They are arresting hundreds of their members, but that party will not be going away. They may still launch a formidable response to this, which could throw the country into civil war. I hope they look at the situation wisely, with the interest of the country and its people first and foremost. The best thing they could do is assess the situation patiently with longer term goals in minds. They should just gear up for the next election, and so prove whether or not they have the democratic mandate of the people. Morsi should simply avoid violence and be allowed to run for election again.

At least the Egyptians are dealing with their issues on their own accord, and now understand their future is in their own hands, not in the hands of some imagined American or Jew. Its good to get away from the mentality of blaming imagined phantom entities for the the state of their lives, and start taking actions to improve it. I really hope the more intelligent ones are called upon to lead the country, and brain power is used to solve real problems, not for fighting their fellow countrymen. I wish this country the best.
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  #1263  
Old 04.07.2013, 10:24
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

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About "Are the normal workers better off now after the Arab Spring in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen"

Good question but is it relevant? I thought the people dying in the Arab Spring were looking for democracy, not pay rises?
Patience is in short supply, democracy is all well and good as long as it is swiftly followed by jobs and prosperity.
A lot of the malcontents out cheering the fall of Morsi were angry about continued unemployment and the poor state of the economy. In that part of the world, feeding and clothing your family is more important than high brow ideals such as democracy.. unless you're a young Twitterati from the American University in Cairo I make the point again, there are millions upon millions in Egypt who did not want this and feel cheated that the man they voted for has been toppled.

Anyway, people who don't learn from history are bound to repeat it, Chile 1973 and Pakistan 1999. The people initially welcome the military with open arms and cheers, but that soon soured when they realised that army rule is far more brutal and sticky than civilian rule.
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  #1264  
Old 04.07.2013, 11:37
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

I'm not so sure you can have a decent democracy without the underlying framework of economic liberalism inspired by social pluralism. Sure you can hold an election, but that does not necessarily constitute a democracy. The MBs were elected, but were totalitarian and socially intolerant. Its natural inclination is towards fascist dictatorship.

As vast as that country is, its diversity demands pluralism. What the country needs are check and balances on power, particularly the Presidency and the military. But instead of weakening that branch of government, Morsi grabbed for more presidential power. So the people and the military felt betrayed.

I think one of the first things they need to work into a constitution is a proper process for impeachment that does not call for violence and mob rule. And at some point, the military also needs to step out of the way and let civilians peacefully live their lives.

Last edited by Phos; 04.07.2013 at 23:13.
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  #1265  
Old 04.07.2013, 18:34
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

Adly Mansour – the chief of the constitutional court, has been appointed as the new interim-president. So that the presidency is in civilian hands. Of course, General as-Sisi yields considerable influence and may even become a candidate for the presidency later on.
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  #1266  
Old 05.07.2013, 21:56
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

So, yet another victory at the polls for Islamists is followed by a coup.
With cheap weapons coming from Libya, a long history of underground violence against army and civilans - the Islamists may take the Algerian way.

I wonder what will the Junta charge Morsi with.
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  #1267  
Old 06.07.2013, 01:35
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

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So, yet another victory at the polls for Islamists is followed by a coup.
With cheap weapons coming from Libya, a long history of underground violence against army and civilans - the Islamists may take the Algerian way.

I wonder what will the Junta charge Morsi with.
Which may result in some years of military rule of the Liamine Zeroual kind. Let's hope that Egypt will jump one field forward directly towards the democracy, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, after having become elected president, has established in Algeria. Critics talk about the influence of the military in Algeria, but look at leading politicians in Switzerland of whom quite many are high ranking army officers. Examples: Bundesräte Gnägi, Chevallaz, Celio, Furgler, Koller, Honegger, Ogi, Villiger, Blocher, Delamuraz, Couchepin, Schmid, -- Zürich City President (SocialDemocrat!) Ledergerber, ..... and lots lots more. NO, the Swiss officers do not need a coup d'etat to take power. ..... they already ARE in power
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  #1268  
Old 06.07.2013, 19:28
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

There is a rumour flying around that El Baradei will be made interim president; anybody know if there is any substance to this rumour?
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  #1269  
Old 06.07.2013, 19:54
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

Yes.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23214310
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  #1270  
Old 07.07.2013, 10:08
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

Seems we spoke too soon,

"Egypt's presidential office hasnot appointed Mohamed ElBaradei as interim prime minister despite an earlierannouncement that he would be sworn in on Saturday night.
The presidential office backed away from an earlierannouncement that the pro-reform leader would be installed"
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  #1271  
Old 10.07.2013, 00:06
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

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Seems we spoke too soon,

"Egypt's presidential office hasnot appointed Mohamed ElBaradei as interim prime minister despite an earlierannouncement that he would be sworn in on Saturday night.
The presidential office backed away from an earlierannouncement that the pro-reform leader would be installed"
Now we have " Egypt's military-backed interim presidency moved to implement a speedy transition to civilian rule on Tuesday, appointing economist Hazem el-Beblawi as prime minister and the internationally-known opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei as vice-president."
I have no idea if vice-president is a real job or just a title?

Also in today's news Saudi Arabia & UAE will make $8Bn available to Egypt; under the Morsi regime Qatar (& Libya) were the main financial supporters; not clear if the latter will continue to support.
Not sure I understand why Saudi Arabia & UAE think an Egypt without the Muslim Brotherhood is an improvement? I thought MB were primarily Sunni?
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  #1272  
Old 10.07.2013, 00:55
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

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Now we have " Egypt's military-backed interim presidency moved to implement a speedy transition to civilian rule on Tuesday, appointing economist Hazem el-Beblawi as prime minister and the internationally-known opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei as vice-president."
I have no idea if vice-president is a real job or just a title?

Also in today's news Saudi Arabia & UAE will make $8Bn available to Egypt; under the Morsi regime Qatar (& Libya) were the main financial supporters; not clear if the latter will continue to support.
Not sure I understand why Saudi Arabia & UAE think an Egypt without the Muslim Brotherhood is an improvement? I thought MB were primarily Sunni?
Anwar as-Sadat was appointed Vice President by Gamal Abdel Nasr about a year before Nasr surprisingly passed away. Sadat made the CIC, General Mubarak his Vice President. The position of a Vice President of Egypt is top important

The role of Prime Minister however is rather functional, which means to be the chief of the Cabinet and leading the government technically

Qatar will continue to support Egypt as it has done already in the times of General Mubarak. Saudi Arabia and the UAE-rulers feared the MB of Egypt. Already King Abdulaziz as-Sa'ud in the 1950ies supported Nasr in his moves against the MB

You mention the denomination. While both sides (except the el-Hasa province in eastern Saudi Arabia) of course are Sunni, Egypt is Hanafi (the Maghreb is Maliki) while the KSA is predominantly Hanbali (the Wahhabites are the strictest section of that "school") and so, the clericalists of both countries are not exactly friends . And the House of Sa'ud as well as the Khaleeji (Gulf) rulers are delighted to see the MB in Egypt cut back to size.
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  #1273  
Old 15.07.2013, 10:05
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

Two and half yeatrs into the "revolution" and Egypt is still run by Army for the Army, Economy crashed, Sinai a hotbed of rebellion, Christians fleeing & Shias persecuted. A violent conflict with the Muslim brothers looming.

Egypt is still not ready for democracy.
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  #1274  
Old 15.07.2013, 12:21
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

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Two and half yeatrs into the "revolution" and Egypt is still run by Army for the Army, Economy crashed, Sinai a hotbed of rebellion, Christians fleeing & Shias persecuted. A violent conflict with the Muslim brothers looming.

Egypt is still not ready for democracy.
Right you are in a way but exaggerating you are. The economy in Egypt is just in trouble as usual in the past 30 years. The Sinai a hotbed of sh... is not really new. How many Shi'ites are around in Egypt ? Christians started fleeing in the 1950ies ... so that this is not new really.
-
Trouble with the MB ? Not new either
-
Welcome back in 1959 Countries like Egypt and Italy and Tunisia are still not really ready for democracy
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  #1275  
Old 15.07.2013, 16:47
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

Egypt's problems have grown a lot in the last 30 months.
Sinai is a new problem - until 3 years ago it was much safer.
Comparing Egypt with almost 30% illitercy rate (40% for women) and GBP of about 3000$ to Italy (Literacy 98%,GBP about 33,000$, free media & elections since WW2) is not relevant.
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  #1276  
Old 15.07.2013, 21:16
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

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Egypt's problems have grown a lot in the last 30 months.
Sinai is a new problem - until 3 years ago it was much safer.
Comparing Egypt with almost 30% illitercy rate (40% for women) and GBP of about 3000$ to Italy (Literacy 98%,GBP about 33,000$, free media & elections since WW2) is not relevant.
Egypt's problems have grown due to the departure of General Mubarak from power

Sinaï started to be a problem for a while

Italy was plagued by illiteracy and Malaria and beggars until Prime Minister Mussolini tackled the matters seriously

Tunisia and Egypt unfortunately have shown not to be up for democracy..... and frustrating is to see that also university educated people have no real understanding for democracy
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  #1277  
Old 17.07.2013, 19:07
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

Italy is proof that a country and society can still exist without a government - so long as the food is good, the wine is good, and men and women remain sexy. They aren't threatening to war with their neighbor, nor are they persecuting their religious minorities. Egypt, on the other hand is headed for civil war. Nearly the same circumstance, yet quite different situations. Why is that?
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Old 17.07.2013, 20:47
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

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Italy is proof that a country and society can still exist without a government - so long as the food is good, the wine is good, and men and women remain sexy. They aren't threatening to war with their neighbor, nor are they persecuting their religious minorities. Egypt, on the other hand is headed for civil war. Nearly the same circumstance, yet quite different situations. Why is that?
Because the Italians know they would lose a civil war...
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  #1279  
Old 17.07.2013, 20:53
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

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Italy is proof that a country and society can still exist without a government - so long as the food is good, the wine is good, and men and women remain sexy. They aren't threatening to war with their neighbor, nor are they persecuting their religious minorities. Egypt, on the other hand is headed for civil war. Nearly the same circumstance, yet quite different situations. Why is that?
I assume the average Italian is better educated so tend to making their own rational based decisions rather than blindly following the local religious leaders whims.
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  #1280  
Old 17.07.2013, 22:07
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Re: Egypt "Jan 25 - Day of revolution" [Update: Mubarak resigns]

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Italy is proof that a country and society can still exist without a government - so long as the food is good, the wine is good, and men and women remain sexy. They aren't threatening to war with their neighbor, nor are they persecuting their religious minorities. Egypt, on the other hand is headed for civil war. Nearly the same circumstance, yet quite different situations. Why is that?
Italy since the Risorgimento has been nominally united but in reality usually governed by very powerful city/town governments.

Egypt at the other hand for millenia has been a strictly centralized country.

No, Egypt is NOT headed for civil war. The MuslimBrotherhood when seeing their "shares" getting down the Nile tried to provoke the ruling Triumvirate of Acting State President Mansour, Vice President Baradei and General as-Sisi ijnto violent action, but they kept calm. The MB has tried to step into power since the days of Sheikh Ahmed Hassan el-Banna in the 1930ies
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