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  #261  
Old 16.03.2011, 22:50
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

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Libyan citizens are always welcome in Egypt before and after Gaddhafi and regardless of the situation.
I'll quote you on that - the Libyan/egyptian border will get very busy soon.

Meanwhile Egyptian workers are escaping Libya, but there is no work for them in Egypt.


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Yes, it's Egypt model 2011
Egypt 2011 - motto "we have no problems. you didn't see a thing, what are you - an Arab hater ?".
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  #262  
Old 16.03.2011, 22:56
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

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I'll quote you on that - the Libyan/egyptian border will get very busy soon.

Meanwhile Egyptian workers are escaping Libya, but there is no work for them in Egypt.
At least they're back home safe


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Egypt 2011 - motto "we have no problems. you didn't see a thing, what are you - an Arab hater ?".
Exactly
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  #263  
Old 16.03.2011, 22:59
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

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If Gaddafi wins you can expect a lot more refugees.


So it must have been another Egypt which used Mustard gas in Yemen
Do you recommend white phosphorus as being more effective?
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  #264  
Old 16.03.2011, 23:18
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

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Agreed
Amongst the many problems of intervention is "once you have ousted the leader then who takes over?" Libya would be more confused than Iraq.
aS far as I know to enforce a no fly zone the US would have to bomb Libya to knock out their air defense. Perhpas if the Arab countries ( with Amr Moussa at the head of the Arab league leading the charge) got together and knocked out the defense then the US would be happy to support a no fly zone. Saudi Arabia easily have the weaponry to do it. But it might look slightly hypocritical for the House of Saud to take out the house of Ghaddafi. It is ironic that Israel's best friend must be Saudi Arabia right now, even though it is Saudi Arabia (allegedly) who massively fund Al Qaeda and the Taliban

The US really can't handle any further complications in Bahrain at present. What happens if the Shiites gain control of Bahrain? Could you imagine the reaction of Saudi Arabia if the US supports the uprising in Bahrain? On the other hand, diplomatically the situation is very difficult, Isn't Hilary Clinton having a tough time in Egypt with all the criticism ( and it was Clinton not Obama who was supporting Muburak) that the US did not step in early enough to support the Egyptian people?

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts...e_sectarianism

Meanwhile, Iran sits back and laughs. clever mullahs huh?

Am I just too naiive? Why can't the US support secular democracy across the MiddleEast- let the House of Saud and all the houses fall and deal with democratic oil countries?

Last edited by hoppy; 16.03.2011 at 23:40.
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  #265  
Old 16.03.2011, 23:25
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

Last thing the US / EU wanna do is intervene at this point with Russia, China, India opposing this, Libya in negotiations with them, the Arabian population revolting and China & Iran warships in the Mediterranean for the first time in history.....one wrong move and it'll turn into WW3

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aS far as I know to enforce a no fly zone the US would have to bomb Libya to knock out their air defense. Perhpas if the Arab countries ( with Amr Moussa at the head of the Arab league leading the charge) got together and knocked out the defense then the US would be happy to support a no fly zone. Saudi Arabia easily have the weaponry to do it. But it might look slightly hypocritical for the House of Saud to take out the house of Ghaddafi. It is ironic that Israel's best friend must be Saudi Arabia right now, even though it is Saudi Arabia (allegedly) who massively fund Al Qaeda and the Taliban

The US really can't handle any further complications in Bahrain at present. What happens if the Shiites gain control of Bahrain? Could you imagine the reaction of Saudi Arabia if the US supports the uprising in Bahrain? On the other hand, diplomatically the situation is very difficult, Isn't Hilary Clinton having a tough time in Egypt with all the criticism ( and it was Clinton not Obama who was supporting Muburak) that the US did not step in early enough to support the Egyptian people?

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts...e_sectarianism

Meanwhile, Iran sits back and laughs. clever mullahs huh?
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  #266  
Old 16.03.2011, 23:54
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

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Last thing the US / EU wanna do is intervene at this point with Russia, China, India opposing this, Libya in negotiations with them, the Arabian population revolting and China & Iran warships in the Mediterranean for the first time in history.....one wrong move and it'll turn into WW3
WW3 ? This is the Libyan army we are talking about - even the Egyptians managed to defeat them.
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  #267  
Old 17.03.2011, 14:08
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

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Last thing the US / EU wanna do is intervene at this point with Russia, China, India opposing this, Libya in negotiations with them, the Arabian population revolting and China & Iran warships in the Mediterranean for the first time in history.....one wrong move and it'll turn into WW3
About "with Russia, China, India opposing this" - according to the newspapers there is another UN security council meeting today to discuss a no fly zone plus to discuss a new proposal by the US to protect Libyan civilians by intervening & stopping Gadaffi's tanks & heavy weapons bfore they reach Benghazi. So far Russia & China have not publically opposed this idea; will be interesting to see the outcome of this meeting.

Difficult to imagine Iran supporting Gadaffi & getting actively involved; if they did then with all the US, UN & Nato warships in the area the Iran intervention would not last more than 5 minutes.
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  #268  
Old 17.03.2011, 14:18
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

[QUOTE=marton;1137536]Agreed
Amongst the many problems of intervention is "once you have ousted the leader then who takes over?"


Just another murdering scumbag!
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  #269  
Old 17.03.2011, 14:19
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

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aS far as I know to enforce a no fly zone the US would have to bomb Libya to knock out their air defense. Perhpas if the Arab countries ( with Amr Moussa at the head of the Arab league leading the charge) got together and knocked out the defense then the US would be happy to support a no fly zone. Saudi Arabia easily have the weaponry to do it. But it might look slightly hypocritical for the House of Saud to take out the house of Ghaddafi. It is ironic that Israel's best friend must be Saudi Arabia right now, even though it is Saudi Arabia (allegedly) who massively fund Al Qaeda and the Taliban

The US really can't handle any further complications in Bahrain at present. What happens if the Shiites gain control of Bahrain? Could you imagine the reaction of Saudi Arabia if the US supports the uprising in Bahrain? On the other hand, diplomatically the situation is very difficult, Isn't Hilary Clinton having a tough time in Egypt with all the criticism ( and it was Clinton not Obama who was supporting Muburak) that the US did not step in early enough to support the Egyptian people?

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts...e_sectarianism

Meanwhile, Iran sits back and laughs. clever mullahs huh?

Am I just too naiive? Why can't the US support secular democracy across the MiddleEast- let the House of Saud and all the houses fall and deal with democratic oil countries?
About "the US would have to bomb Libya to knock out their air defense".

If the main aim is to protect Benghazi then you could simply park a couple of missile ships in the area; ship to air missiles with a range of 100/150km are quite common in most navys now.
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  #270  
Old 17.03.2011, 18:08
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

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About "with Russia, China, India opposing this" - according to the newspapers there is another UN security council meeting today to discuss a no fly zone plus to discuss a new proposal by the US to protect Libyan civilians by intervening & stopping Gadaffi's tanks & heavy weapons bfore they reach Benghazi. So far Russia & China have not publically opposed this idea; will be interesting to see the outcome of this meeting.

Difficult to imagine Iran supporting Gadaffi & getting actively involved; if they did then with all the US, UN & Nato warships in the area the Iran intervention would not last more than 5 minutes.
I am wondering if there is any chance that the Saudi Arabia and Iran conflict will escalate. At the moment it is just limited to Bahrain.
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  #271  
Old 17.03.2011, 19:08
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

Can someone make a case why the US should get involved in Libya?

I don't mind doing favor for friends and appreciative people, but if they will just complain later, and there isn't anything to gain, why?
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  #272  
Old 17.03.2011, 19:21
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

[QUOTE=Phos;1139060]Can someone make a case why the US should get involved in Libya?

I don't mind doing favor for friends and appreciative people, but if they will just complain later, and there isn't anything to gain, why?[/QUOTE

Ask the Brits, they were falling over themselves to be friends with Libya. The Swiss also put up with quite a bit too!
The saying ''Cos payback can be a b**** ' springs to mind- especially if Ghaddafi regains the reins of power.
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  #273  
Old 17.03.2011, 19:28
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

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Can someone make a case why the US should get involved in Libya?

I don't mind doing favor for friends and appreciative people, but if they will just complain later, and there isn't anything to gain, why?
As much as I dislike the ruling family, I guess trade was pretty good as long as they were/are in power - for everyone including the US, no?

So no need to intervene at all
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  #274  
Old 17.03.2011, 19:30
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

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But the face-off between the two rivals has never looked so dangerous. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia know that all-out armed conflict between them could prove disastrous, and that knowledge will act as a powerful deterrent. But there are other forces at play, and those could prove even more powerful. After all, the Arab uprisings seek to permanently reshape the landscape of the Middle East. For both countries, the stakes are enormous. If the power of deterrence is not sufficient to prevent a confrontation, it could trigger an economic and geopolitical tsunami with global proportions -- and Black Swan consequences.
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/a...off-in-bahrain
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  #275  
Old 17.03.2011, 19:47
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

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As much as I dislike the ruling family, I guess trade was pretty good as long as they were/are in power - for everyone including the US, no?

So no need to intervene at all

Right, and Gaddaffi has been leaning towards the US lately, calling US his friend..

My question though is why intervene now? Whoever takes over will likely have people chanting "Death to US & Israel" anyway.
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  #276  
Old 17.03.2011, 19:53
hoppy
 
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

I posted an interview before with one of the leaders in exile who had the telephone number of the oppostion leader, so I am sure that Washington has given them a call. At that time the oppostition said that they did not want military intervention they needed humanitarian aid and support. In the US the Republicans are always a bit 'Yee Ha let's go nuke 'em boys'.
Ghaddafi's overthrow has to be managed so that the opposition forces are seen to win on their own, everyone expects the US to intervene, but the US will not put their neck on the line without global consent and support.

In any case at present the US military is over stretched, Americans are sick of sending their young to fight foreign wars to no avail, we have to extricate from our involvement with Afghanistan.

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Indeed, the Libya debate is disturbingly disconnected from the recent historical record. One would imagine that the ongoing U.S. troop presence in Iraq and Afghanistan would lead to greater humility in calls for utilizing U.S. military force today. And yet many of the biggest cheerleaders of the Bush-era interventions are among the loudest voices advocating for a military solution in Libya today.

None of this is to suggest that the U.S. has no role to play in ending the Libyan crisis. There are humanitarian initiatives that can and should be taken. Diplomatic and even material support could be offered to regional organizations or ad hoc coalitions inclined to play a more leading role in helping the rebels. But the notion that the U.S. has a "responsibility to do something" to respond to the Libyan crisis, that our credibility in the Arab world rests on direct American involvement or even that U.S. engagement in Libya would be a net positive seems to reflect a view of U.S. national interests and capabilities remarkably unchastened and uninformed by recent events.

The foreign policy community would do well to internalize the lessons of the past decade's miscalculations, misjudgments and disastrous national security decision-making. Instead, it's chomping at the bit to repeat them.
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/a...-crowd-is-back

Ayway the UN are meeting and they are being told that a genocide is underway. Genocide seems to be the magic word.
The Ghaddafi forces seem to be awarre of this, they are very keen to show the press that they are trying to avert unneccessary deaths. saying that they put their forces in such danger to avoid killing rebels that they themselves are dying.

In Light of the UN ghaddafi has just issued this:

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In Tripoli, state news agency Jana said "the provisional general committee (ministry) of defence has decided to halt military operations against the armed terrorist bands from midnight on Sunday (2200 GMT) ... to give (them) a chance to lay down their arms and benefit from a general amnesty."
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...section=justin

Will the UN buy it?
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  #277  
Old 17.03.2011, 20:32
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

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I am wondering if there is any chance that the Saudi Arabia and Iran conflict will escalate. At the moment it is just limited to Bahrain.
I do not see how, they are seperated by the Persian Gulf so there is not really any possibility of an invasion? If Iran attacked SA then it could only be by air & the SA owned US missiles would soon stop that.
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  #278  
Old 17.03.2011, 21:28
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

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I do not see how, they are seperated by the Persian Gulf so there is not really any possibility of an invasion? If Iran attacked SA then it could only be by air & the SA owned US missiles would soon stop that.
So how are they fighting a proxy war in Kuwait? The Iranians deal in human waves of Shiite martyrs. As proved by the Iraq war the people are quite stoic and can resist sustained bombardment.The Saudis would have to bomb the Gulf, the biggest part of which belongs to Iran and massacre indigenous shiites.
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  #279  
Old 17.03.2011, 21:51
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

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So how are they fighting a proxy war in Kuwait? The Iranians deal in human waves of Shiite martyrs. As proved by the Iraq war the people are quite stoic and can resist sustained bombardment.The Saudis would have to bomb the Gulf, the biggest part of which belongs to Iran and massacre indigenous shiites.
About "So how are they fighting a proxy war in Kuwait?" They are not, if they are they are doing it very quietly.

About "The Iranians deal in human waves of Shiite martyrs" I do not see them running across the Gulf & it is a long way to run through Iraq plus there might be some obstacles put in their way.
Anyway the young people are smarter now, I do not see them volunteering to be in human waves of Shiite martyrs.

About "The Saudis would have to bomb the Gulf" I do not see why; with their superior US supplied weapons the Saudis would soon wipe out the Iran airforce & navy then they could just ignore the Iranians. Not like the Iraq/Iran war fought with WWII weapons.
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  #280  
Old 18.03.2011, 00:35
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Re: Libya - 17 Feb "Day of wrath"

10 votes. 5 abstentions ( China Russia bastianed and perhaps Germany?)
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