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  #21  
Old 01.03.2011, 10:02
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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If you classify that in terms of indications of popular revolution, you might as well add half the countries in the world - China being at the top of the list.
There's a square in Beijing, called Tiananmen, you might have heard of it...

They were dealt with in pretty much the same way as the protesters in Iran.
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Old 01.03.2011, 10:05
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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Yes Nil but I repeat my earlier point, was anything different in the time of the Shah? As for education, personally I reckon most young people have a basic education , can read etc, Ive seen much worse in relatively civilised countries.
But we're not talking about the Shah, are we? We're talking about protests against the current despotic regime and replacing it with a genuine democracy (whatever that is).
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  #23  
Old 01.03.2011, 10:08
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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There's a square in Beijing, called Tiananmen, you might have heard of it...

They were dealt with in pretty much the same way as the protesters in Iran.
I have heard of Tiananmen, and they were, and 1.6bln people didnt rise up and chuck out the ruling elite. In fact the similarity in timing of the recent detention of opposition leaders in both countries is quite interesting, but I don`t hear anybody predicting another Libya in China.
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Old 01.03.2011, 10:11
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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But we're not talking about the Shah, are we? We're talking about protests against the current despotic regime and replacing it with a genuine democracy (whatever that is).
Well Paddy, the point is they rose up against the Shah and a true despotic regime and where did it get them ? According to you in a worse situation than before.
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  #25  
Old 01.03.2011, 10:16
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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Well Paddy, the point is they rose up against the Shah and a true despotic regime and where did it get them ? According to you in a worse situation than before.
Hang on, I never made a comparison between the Shah and the current regime. Where did I say it is "worse" than with the Shah?
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  #26  
Old 01.03.2011, 10:18
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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Hang on, I never made a comparison between the Shah and the current regime. Where did I say it is "worse" than with the Shah?
You didn`t but my point is I don`t reckon they have enough appetite for another revolution over there when they realise they are certainly no better off than before.
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Old 01.03.2011, 10:48
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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You didn`t but my point is I don`t reckon they have enough appetite for another revolution over there when they realise they are certainly no better off than before.
Ok, PaddyG made a simple point and you are constantly ignoring it. Simple question: Are you aware of the "green revolution" in Iran in 2010?

There are some massive differences between Iran and the other Arab countries: The country is for example far more democratic than any of the despots that we kicked out by the portesters so far. There is a parlamentary opposition and there were governments from more than one political party in the last 30 years. So people can vote and choose between candidates. And they do. The protests last year started on claims of election fraud...

The more progressive Iranians are not unhappy with the president alone -they are unhappy with the very backward clergy that has probably more power than the actual government. So just kicking a president out like in egypt would not really sovle any problem for them.
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  #28  
Old 01.03.2011, 10:49
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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Are you aware of the "green revolution" in Iran in 2010?
Doesn't the word 'revolution' imply some kind of change of regime?
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  #29  
Old 01.03.2011, 10:52
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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Doesn't the word 'revolution' imply some kind of change of regime?
No, only if it is successful AFAIK. The 2010 one was far from successful and put down with brutal force. If it gives your teacher's soul fulfillment, call it "attempted revoution"...
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Old 01.03.2011, 10:55
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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Ok, PaddyG made a simple point and you are constantly ignoring it. Simple question: Are you aware of the "green revolution" in Iran in 2010?

There are some massive differences between Iran and the other Arab countries: The country is for example far more democratic than any of the despots that we kicked out by the portesters so far. There is a parlamentary opposition and there were governments from more than one political party in the last 30 years. So people can vote and choose between candidates. And they do. The protests last year started on claims of election fraud...

The more progressive Iranians are not unhappy with the president alone -they are unhappy with the very backward clergy that has probably more power than the actual government. So just kicking a president out like in egypt would not really sovle any problem for them.
Well the only thing I constantly try to do is come back to the original question as to whether Iran is the next Libya. I am well aware of what took place last year and it was not and never will be good, however and for many of the reasons youve just posted Treverus, the answer has to be no.
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Old 01.03.2011, 10:56
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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...There are some massive differences between Iran and the other Arab countries...

.
The biggest being that Iran isn't an Arab country
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  #32  
Old 01.03.2011, 10:57
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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The biggest being that Iran isn't an Arab country
You beat me to it
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  #33  
Old 01.03.2011, 10:58
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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Yes Nil but I repeat my earlier point, was anything different in the time of the Shah? As for education, personally I reckon most young people have a basic education , can read etc, Ive seen much worse in relatively civilised countries.
So because they are not as bad as some other countries, you think it makes them happy of the way things are?

Hey, it isn't that bad, today only one woman was executed... Last week, only 2 gays. And not bad that my son still at home while the neighbours can't find theirs...

Yep, things could be worse... Let's celebrate!
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  #34  
Old 01.03.2011, 10:59
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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The biggest being that Iran isn't an Arab country
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You beat me to it
Arabs, Persians... Honestly: Do I look like I care?


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Old 01.03.2011, 11:00
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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Doesn't the word 'revolution' imply some kind of change of regime?
to me "green revolution" is first a revolution in people's mindset. No fear anymore and daring to speak up and shout at the government.
In Tunisia and Egypt there were also "green revolutions" about 2 years ago and immediately repressed. See the results now. It's like when you deal with the fever symptom without addressing the deep disease. Taking aspirine will relief you for a few days but then it hits back and it will hurt. Therefore I give maximum 1 year to the iranian regime till 2012.
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Old 01.03.2011, 11:01
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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Well the only thing I constantly try to do is come back to the original question as to whether Iran is the next Libya. I am well aware of what took place last year and it was not and never will be good, however and for many of the reasons youve just posted Treverus, the answer has to be no.
You can't post an affirmation and expect people to pass over it just to come back to the original question. Especially when people don't agree with you and actually ask you to clarify and justify what you claimed have seen.
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Old 01.03.2011, 11:02
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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Therefore I give maximum 1 year to the iranian regime till 2012.
But by then the world is coming to an end anyway, no?
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  #38  
Old 01.03.2011, 11:03
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

Arab vs Iran: besides the persian culture the religious split between sunni and shii'a plays a bigger role. To make it short: lebanese or bahraini shii'a feel closer to iranians that they do to sunni syrians or egyptians although they share the language.
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Old 01.03.2011, 11:03
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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But by then the world is coming to an end anyway, no?
yes therefore I'm sure that my prediction will be right
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Old 01.03.2011, 11:05
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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Arab vs Iran: besides the persian culture the religious split between sunni and shii'a plays a bigger role. To make it short: lebanese or bahraini shii'a feel closer to iranians that they do to sunni syrians or egyptians although they share the language.
Which is true but completely irrelevant in the protests up to now as it seems that Bahraini shi'ites seem to like to party the very same way sunni Egyptians did...
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