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  #61  
Old 01.03.2011, 16:08
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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I am sorry hundred thousand people died and people are asking for revolution for decades, ask the local people they all want freedom, they consider themselve a nation who dont want to be with pakistan/india/china. Kashmir is forcefully patrolled through huge army where serious human rights violations are done on daily basis but as mentioned it has minimum amount of western interest because it is not rich of resources like Iran/Libya.
I have tried (and been refused) to copy and paste this comment to a new thread on Kashmir, and simply been told my English was rubbish, which AliAhmedAdnan goes for you too. If you want to discuss the Kashmir, and it would be a pleasure, then please do start a new thread instead of diverting this one, which, if i understood correctly yetserday was the Mods greatest desire, but today appears not to be, and we can talk about the two subjects - or am I being dim? Grynch?
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  #62  
Old 01.03.2011, 17:59
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

Clashes reported between students, protesters and police right now. Things starting again in Tehran.
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  #63  
Old 01.03.2011, 19:27
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

What we are seeing in these countries are culture wars within its population. Our evaluation of the appearance of happiness and safety may not be theirs. In the case of Egypt and Libya, it was a war between progress vs. the status quo. Same in Iran, with the added dimensions of secular vs. religious and old world vs. modernity.

In the case of Iran, I think a modernized society would be more compatible and at peace with the rest of the world. This doesn't necessarily have to impact their religious devotion, although it would take away the hegemony of their religious political leaders.

It is fine time for Shia Islam to redefine itself in the context of the modern world, in a way that global society can comprehend. It would do more to further their cause, by toning down its enmities. I don't know anyone in their right mind wanting this way of thinking in the west. As if we would line up for the opportunity stone our petty sinners. The sooner that can be deemphasized in Iran, the better.
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  #64  
Old 01.03.2011, 22:55
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Re: Iran next??

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Well obviously I wouldnt be so presumptious as to make such a statement unless I had quite a lot of experience and that is why I say it. Don`t misunderstand , as I detest oppression and uncontested authority, But I have to say that every time I travel to that country I am always surprised to see that the average person is content. Of course there are reforms necessary and of course they won`t be coming soon, but my point was that there is certainly (in my humble opinion) not the impetus that you have seen in other N African and mid east countries
Iran is in the "Middle East" but it is not in the Arab World and so not so much under the influence of what goes on in the Arab World.
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  #65  
Old 01.03.2011, 23:02
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Re: Iran next??

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What might surprise you is that the Iranian people in general enjoy their way of life. Of course there are high profile cases of human rights abuse etc but I don't believe there is the same underlying hatred that exists in Tunisia Egypt and libya. There is certainly not the same poverty as in say Egypt
Realities are to be seen. Iran in reality has the higher alcohol consumtion than the USA of the times of the Prohibition

"Underlying hatred"? The point in Tunisia and in Egypt was not so much "underlying hatred" but that people were FED UP with political stagnation and lack of democracy.

In both Tunisia and Egypt, it was NOT the poor who rebelled but the middle class. Let's not forget that the French Revolution was carried by the middle class. That Lenin (mis-) used the middle class for his aims. Existing poverty so was not the point, but the lack of progress in regard to democratic freedoms.
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  #66  
Old 01.03.2011, 23:09
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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Yes Nil but I repeat my earlier point, was anything different in the time of the Shah? As for education, personally I reckon most young people have a basic education , can read etc, Ive seen much worse in relatively civilised countries.
What I mentioned about Mr Mubarak and even Mr Ben Ali is true about Shah Reza Pahlavi, and that is that many of his programs in regard to economy, infrastructure, education and health were good, and so, the Mullahcracy simply followed the path.
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  #67  
Old 01.03.2011, 23:16
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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Arab vs Iran: besides the persian culture the religious split between sunni and shii'a plays a bigger role. To make it short: lebanese or bahraini shii'a feel closer to iranians that they do to sunni syrians or egyptians although they share the language.
the answer to that is a clear and blunt NO .... sorry
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  #68  
Old 02.03.2011, 00:15
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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So how come there isnt a total exodus from the country. Iranians are free to travel - as you have seen - and as I said, this is my experience travelling many many times in the country.
Iranians are free to travel???

a) It's one of the few countries that requires you to obtain permission to depart (an 'exit visa').

b) Iranian citizens have a tough time qualifying for entry visas to most countries - certainly any of the more 'desirable' destinations.

c) Graduate engineers work for a couple hundred $ a month in local currency - it's not easy to save up $20-100k to emigrate and start a new life somewhere else...
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Old 02.03.2011, 11:38
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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Iranians are free to travel???

a) It's one of the few countries that requires you to obtain permission to depart (an 'exit visa').

b) Iranian citizens have a tough time qualifying for entry visas to most countries - certainly any of the more 'desirable' destinations.

c) Graduate engineers work for a couple hundred $ a month in local currency - it's not easy to save up $20-100k to emigrate and start a new life somewhere else...
Good points.
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Old 03.03.2011, 17:28
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Re: Iran next??

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Realities are to be seen. Iran in reality has the higher alcohol consumtion than the USA of the times of the Prohibition

"Underlying hatred"? The point in Tunisia and in Egypt was not so much "underlying hatred" but that people were FED UP with political stagnation and lack of democracy.

In both Tunisia and Egypt, it was NOT the poor who rebelled but the middle class. Let's not forget that the French Revolution was carried by the middle class. That Lenin (mis-) used the middle class for his aims. Existing poverty so was not the point, but the lack of progress in regard to democratic freedoms.
Alcohol is legal in Iran- for Christians, but they can't drink it in public. the Armenian- Iranians manufacture excellent vodka. If you are Muslim you can not drink if you are Christian then you can- at home.

You are free to leave or go to Iran ( if you have not committed a crime) Iran welcomes foreigners. Iranians travel freely, many of them that I know have offices all over the world and in Iran. It's all a money game.
If you are politically minded and anti-regime then No- don't go to Iran unless you want to risk arrest. If you are an ordinary Iranian then the problem will be to get a visa for another country, basically other countries don't want you. there are many very highly educated Iranians who can not get visas. This is the only sanction against Iran that I am aware of.
If other countries would allow Iranians to travel freely then many problems would be relieved.

The most important thing for most Iranians is that whatever is decided is decided by Iranians- not the US or the Arabs, or the Brits, or BP or the Chinese, or the Russians- all of whom have a long history of meddling in Iran. Some call the Iranians paranoid but with the history and especially the overthrow of Mossadegh then it is to some degree excusable. What is happening at present in Iran is that there is a split between the heads of power.

Most Iranians have satellite TV, they aren't supposed to but they do. Sometimes officials will tear them down, but then the people put them up again. Many of the people when they go home just want to chill and watch US soaps-the modern-day opium for the masses. Many listen to the BBC or VoA, both of which is has to be remembered have government -backing form their respective countries and are politically motivated. So Iranians tend to listen to many sources. I was reading from an Israeli wesite that all telephone comunications wth Iran had been cut as we were on the phone to Iran. Iranians phone here, we phone them, all week long. we have freinds who travel to Iran regularly. Many will be going for the New Year on March 21st.

There is a large enough Iranian diaspora (and they have the resources) to overthrow the Iranian regime.They don't because Iranians tend to blend very easily and adapt to the culture where they live, or create their own little Iran like in Irangeles(CA). The only ones that really try to do something are the Shah supporters or the National council of Resistance of Iran. This organization is massively funded and backed by different conuntires for political purpose and linked to terrorist activities. I avoid having anything to do with them at all costs, even thought they can sound very convincing. From what I have read they have a very strange family set-up, 50% of the fighters are women- which is fine by me but not when they are forced into and out of marriages for the good of the party. I believe them to be a dangerous force, most Iranians in Iran seem to distrust them.


Many that live abroad still trade with Iran, trading with Iran can be highly lucrative, so they are happy. Sanctions?- what sanctions? If sanctions would be properly applied then Iran would be brought to its knees, but countries just can't afford not to trade with Iran, they all trade. For many it suits their political agenda for Iran to remain the way it is.

Almost everyone in Iran has a family member who has a finger in the pie of the Government. They work for the institution, so changes have to come from within. If they do not have overwhelming support from the masses, then there will be no change.

To me, I would love for those in the diaspora to return to Iran to help build it into the great nation it can be. I would accept a government similar to Turkey's. I am not adverse to religion it can be a force for good. There are good mullahs and there are bad mullahs, just as there are good priests and bad priests. I believe in supporting what is good for the ordinary Iranian citizen- not those who want to rip the country off.

What will cause change would be a collapse in the economic situation in Iran. Ideals do not cause people with full bellies to demonstrate. They have to get hungry enough for change as long as the Mullahs keep the poor from starving with jobs such as in the Baseej then revolution won't happen. It is for the young to decide what kind of Iran they wish to inherit for themselves and their children. If they decide for change they will have to accept that it will involve massive bloodshed. For some, who don't have jobs, or work two jobs and still struggle, can't afford marriage, can't afford children, they have no life anyway, they are prepared to become martyrs if they can find someone whom they trust to lead.
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Old 03.03.2011, 17:36
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Re: Iran next??

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Many listen to the BBC or VoA, both of which is has to be remembered have government -backing form their respective countries and are politically motivated.
Am I cynical here, can you really say that the BBC world service is politically motivated?
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  #72  
Old 03.03.2011, 17:41
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Re: Iran next??

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Am I cynical here, can you really say that the BBC world service is politically motivated?
Of course it is - like any other media.
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Old 03.03.2011, 17:52
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Re: Iran next??

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. Iranians travel freely [...] If you are an ordinary Iranian then the problem will be to get a visa for another country, basically other countries don't want you.
Fail of the day.
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Old 03.03.2011, 20:34
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Re: Iran next??

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Am I cynical here, can you really say that the BBC world service is politically motivated?
It becomes especially more noticeable when it is broadcast in Farsi. I actually wrote a letter to the VoA to ask who was monitoring the translators.
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Old 03.03.2011, 20:52
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Re: Iran next??

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Fail of the day.
care to elaborate on this?

I don't want to belittle the travel restrictions in place but I'm only aware that they are targeting specific groups (as in this report , under "freedom of movement"...US State Department report ;-) ). Do you think/know the "ordinary" citizen, as hoppy said, is increasingly feeling these restrictions?
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Old 03.03.2011, 21:29
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Re: Iran next??

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care to elaborate on this?

I don't want to belittle the travel restrictions in place but I'm only aware that they are targeting specific groups (as in this report , under "freedom of movement"...US State Department report ;-) ). Do you think/know the "ordinary" citizen, as hoppy said, is increasingly feeling these restrictions?
Many Iranians have multiple nationalities, so traveling isn't a problem. If you are in Iran and want to get to get to the US you have to first be granted and interview at a US Embassy. There is no US embassy in Iran, so you haveto fly to a third country then wait about 10 days to hear whether you have been granted a visa or not. Of course you also have to apply for a visa for the third country- for example, Turkey, UAE or Cyprus. For the US very few will be accepted. However applying to those that have an embassy in Iran is easier. If you have relatives in the UK, Switzerland or other European countries you apply to the embassy in Iran. If you don't seem to be a terrorist or look like you are going to go AWOL while abroad then there isn't really a problem. If after the first trip abroad you return to Iran then want to the same country again then you will probably get multiple entrance, because they are pretty sure that you don't want to emigrate. If you have a multiple passports-or something like a Green Card then no problem unless you are on the naughty list! Also the British Interest Section and the Swiss embassy kind of help out with the US embassy.

But ya know Shorrick is the expert - eh Shorrick
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  #77  
Old 08.03.2011, 12:51
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

according to some newspapers former Iranian president Rafsanjani has lost his position as the head of a powerful clerical body charged with choosing or dismissing Iran's supreme leader.

The Iran Government is consolidating it's position; looking less & less likely that any group will stand against them.
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  #78  
Old 08.03.2011, 15:05
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

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according to some newspapers former Iranian president Rafsanjani has lost his position as the head of a powerful clerical body charged with choosing or dismissing Iran's supreme leader.

The Iran Government is consolidating it's position; looking less & less likely that any group will stand against them.
Rafsanjani has to leave or join the opposition.

Just in time for New Year on March 21st, which means lots of people out shopping for new clothes,sweets, flowers, presents, everyone off work for at least two weeks and lots of parties. This is the biggest celebration of the year for Iranians it is not religious. it is a spring celebration that dates back to Zoroastrian times. The other is Ashura in December the day of martrys, when there is usually bloodshed.

Today is Women's Day. It was women who were instrumental, at the forefront of the demonstrations in the overthrow of the Shah. It is also a Tuesday and they have just heard about Rafsanjani being ousted. So during the next two weeks there will be plenty to discuss for Iranians.

I have just heard from one friend that sanctions are beginning to bite, he is getting ready to leave, he will be out in 6 months I things do not improve. Iran is in discussion with Dubai about trade and a lack of support. One demonstration showed people holding placards that they were hungry.



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"We the workers of Parsilon [a factory] are hungry" read a banner at a gathering during President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's March 1 speech in Khoramabad.
http://www.rferl.org/content/iran_wo...y/2326319.html

Last edited by hoppy; 08.03.2011 at 15:23.
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  #79  
Old 27.04.2011, 20:07
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

"Iran's president and supreme leader in rift over minister's reinstatement; MPs call for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to be impeached after his refusal to back Khamenei's judgment"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011...me-leader-rift

Interesting times......
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Old 27.04.2011, 23:05
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Re: Will Iran be next to revolt?

Maybe Ahmadinejad is being made out to be a stool pigeon. In the last month many people have taken their electricity bill and given them back to the electricity board, saying that they can't pay them, due to the recent abolishment of subsidies. There are reports that some have posted them on Knowmeini's shrine, where they usually donate money, this is of course an insult.
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