Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Off-Topic > Off-Topic > International affairs/politics
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #221  
Old 02.07.2011, 23:50
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 9,003
Groaned at 300 Times in 259 Posts
Thanked 12,727 Times in 7,004 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
View Post
More mass demonstration yesterday and today.
My guess: assas will stay in power, the army is with him as well as many minorities who fear (rightly) a secterian war like Iraq's. No foreign power will do anything more than talk to remove him.
Well there are a few cities where the locals are reasonably well armed; could easily turn into a civil war.
Reply With Quote
  #222  
Old 03.07.2011, 00:21
Pashosh's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Baden
Posts: 432
Groaned at 172 Times in 127 Posts
Thanked 1,627 Times in 880 Posts
Pashosh is considered knowledgeablePashosh is considered knowledgeablePashosh is considered knowledgeable
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
View Post
Well there are a few cities where the locals are reasonably well armed; could easily turn into a civil war.
Absolutely - the Sunny (small) majority against everybody else.

The Syrian Army is everybody else, and they massacare and rape their way to victory.
Reply With Quote
  #223  
Old 17.07.2011, 00:17
Pashosh's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Baden
Posts: 432
Groaned at 172 Times in 127 Posts
Thanked 1,627 Times in 880 Posts
Pashosh is considered knowledgeablePashosh is considered knowledgeablePashosh is considered knowledgeable
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Look at the size of the crowd yesterday:



Assad's days are numbered.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank Pashosh for this useful post:
  #224  
Old 17.07.2011, 00:51
hoppy
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
View Post
Look at the size of the crowd yesterday:



Assad's days are numbered.
I'm a bit confused, At 0,47 they seem to be calling Allahu Akbar?

Hilary Clinton has said that the opposition in exile is unsure of how this will end and that Syrian have to do this on their own.

There are all kinds of rumours in the press, that the US will attack Iran, that Israel will attack Natanz in September,that a deal has been struck between the US and Iran for the US to stay in Iraq. It's all very strange.

I still don't read anything about what will happen to the Russian militarized port in Syria.
Reply With Quote
  #225  
Old 17.07.2011, 01:08
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Rafz
Posts: 123
Groaned at 48 Times in 22 Posts
Thanked 33 Times in 27 Posts
Custodian is considered a nuisanceCustodian is considered a nuisanceCustodian is considered a nuisance
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
View Post
Look at the size of the crowd yesterday:



Assad's days are numbered.
That is without any doubt.
The question is, who will be the next or will Iran through the "Hizblower"
just annex Syria?
Reply With Quote
  #226  
Old 17.07.2011, 09:35
Wollishofener's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Glattbrugg
Posts: 19,026
Groaned at 333 Times in 258 Posts
Thanked 11,716 Times in 6,858 Posts
Wollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
View Post
I'm a bit confused, At 0,47 they seem to be calling Allahu Akbar?

Hilary Clinton has said that the opposition in exile is unsure of how this will end and that Syrian have to do this on their own.

There are all kinds of rumours in the press, that the US will attack Iran, that Israel will attack Natanz in September,that a deal has been struck between the US and Iran for the US to stay in Iraq. It's all very strange.

I still don't read anything about what will happen to the Russian militarized port in Syria.

A) "Allah u Akbar" (God is Greater) does not necessarily have a political meaning, but its use here is clear "God is Greater than whom ? " I think we all now whom is meant !

B) The Russians have a naval operations and repair base in the seaport of Tartous, where the Russian navyships are repaired and cared for by Syrian engineers and workers, which brings jobs, money and training experience to Syria. And the presence of the Russian allies improves the standing of the relatively weak Syrian navy in the Northern Levante. In case of change in Damascus, the Russians will change their links very swiftly beyond doubts.
Reply With Quote
  #227  
Old 17.07.2011, 09:42
Wollishofener's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Glattbrugg
Posts: 19,026
Groaned at 333 Times in 258 Posts
Thanked 11,716 Times in 6,858 Posts
Wollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
View Post
That is without any doubt.
The question is, who will be the next or will Iran through the "Hizblower"
just annex Syria?
Iran is far away, as Iraq is in between. And the Iranian influence in Syria is very small. Hizbullah is a party and militia in Southern Lebanon. They are good in trouble-making but their strength outside their region is limited. And do not forget that the Sunni majority in Syria does not love the fundamentalist Shi'ites from accrosss the mountains at all. At present, most important command posts in the Syrian armed forces are in the hands of the Allawites in general and the Assad Clan in particular. So that, if the upper-echelons get out, some younger officers will move up. Whether they will respect democracy or not is to be seen. They better would and wil, as the pictures you see now would have been unthinkable less than a year ago.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Wollishofener for this useful post:
  #228  
Old 17.07.2011, 15:44
hoppy
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
View Post
A) "Allah u Akbar" (God is Greater) does not necessarily have a political meaning, but its use here is clear "God is Greater than whom ? " I think we all now whom is meant !

B) The Russians have a naval operations and repair base in the seaport of Tartous, where the Russian navyships are repaired and cared for by Syrian engineers and workers, which brings jobs, money and training experience to Syria. And the presence of the Russian allies improves the standing of the relatively weak Syrian navy in the Northern Levante. In case of change in Damascus, the Russians will change their links very swiftly beyond doubts.
Here are my wild guesses-
I think that the US has made a deal with Russia not to intervene with Syria, if Russia don't interfere with Libya. I think that the US are doing deals with Iran over Iraq. Iran will lose influence in Syria but not before a lot more bloodshed. Iran is not very happy with the soviets at present (I don't know why) they;re refusing Soviet help with the Nuclear program. I am guessing that the Soviets they will take over in Syria. Rafsanjani is back in favour with Khamenei, there will be a push to open up to the West. Already, Iran are working to improve their image by 'proving' that they had nothing to do with the bombing of the Jewish centre in Argentina.

As always the Palestinians will lose out, but Iranians are fed up with the cost of helping Hamas- let the Saudis do it. The Saudis still haven't receive their huge arms deal. Iran is also fed up with funding Hezbollah, but that may well continue.

Iran has started trading oil off Kish, they are now self-sufficient with gas, although some say it is not that well-refined. They are no longer reliant on imports, plus they have nuclear energy. I didn't see a lack of anything in Iran so the sanctions are a bit of a joke.
Reply With Quote
  #229  
Old 17.07.2011, 16:28
Wollishofener's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Glattbrugg
Posts: 19,026
Groaned at 333 Times in 258 Posts
Thanked 11,716 Times in 6,858 Posts
Wollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

[QUOTE=hoppy;1267298]
I think that the US has made a deal with Russia not to intervene with Syria, if Russia don't interfere with Libya.

Quote:
View Post
I think that the US are doing deals with Iran over Iraq. Iran will lose influence in Syria but not before a lot more bloodshed.
-
Iran does not have much influence in Syria. The relationship is a partnership, with Iran paying Syria for its allowing supplies from Iran to Hizbullah and Hamas through. Both sides ignore the point that Syria in Lebanon supports the Shi'ite majority party Amal and in Palestine es-Saika (inside the PLO)

Quote:
View Post
Iran is not very happy with the soviets at present (I don't know why) they;re refusing Russian help with the Nuclear program.
-
Russia about 3 years ago convinced Iran to drop the nuclear weapons program but is supporting Iran in regard to the Nuclear program

Quote:
View Post
I am guessing that the Russians they will take over in Syria.
-
the Russians cannot and will not "take over" in Syria, but of course continue their partnership with Syria. The Russians were absolutely not content with the technical assistance provided by the Ukraine on the Crimea, and Rostov-on-the-Don is too far in the East anyway. And to have a naval base WEST of the Bosphorus is important for Russia for tactical reasons. For Syria, not only the money paid by the Russians but also the technical instructions given by the Russians to the Syrian engineers is of the highest value


Quote:
View Post
Rafsanjani is back in favour with Khamenei, there will be a push to open up to the West.
-
This is simply speculation

Quote:
View Post
As always the Palestinians will lose out, but Iranians are fed up with the cost of helping Hamas- let the Saudis do it. The Saudis still haven't receive their huge arms deal. Iran is also fed up with funding Hezbollah, but that may well continue.
-
Hamas is financed by Saudi Arabians, not by Iran. Iran gets paid by Saudis for its supplies to Hamas. The Hizbullah thing has become a burden for Iran over recent years. The Iranian idea to have, thanks to Hizbullah, an outpost on the Levantine coastline, has proved to be an illusion. But now, to get out is not as easy as it was to get IN.

And so, the Palestinians, thanks to increasing problems of Hamas, are among the winners. Not least so the Palestine-government in Ramallah.

Quote:
View Post
Iran has started trading oil off Kish, they are now self-sufficient with oil, although some say it is not that well-refined. They are no longer reliant on imports, plus they have nuclear energy. I didn't see a lack of anything in Iran so the sanctions are a bit of a joke.
-
Iran has been an oil-exporter for almost 100 years, and so "self-sufficiency" always was obvious; and Iran NEVER had to rely on imports. Nuclear energy will however help the expansion of infrastructure and industry. Iran however for decades had a shortage of refinery-capactiy. And so had to re-import its own oil after the refinery-process

The sanctions lead Iran to find ways to produce lots of things independently. Iranian industry so in some ways suffered of the sanctions but in the end profits of the sanctions. It for example produces helicopters which were developed out of USA-supplied helis of the Imperial aera.

And now back to your Libya-Syria consideration. Do not forget that the Russians never were happy with Khaddafi who clearly DISliked Russia. Nobody in the White House wants to meddle in Syria for various reasons. So that no agreement is needed for an obvious position.


to get back to the naval alliance between Russia and Syria. Syria at the start of the scheme about Tartous also offered the Russians the services of the seaport and the repair-yards at Latakia-seaport, so that practically the whole Russian Mediterranean Eskadra can be cared for by the Syrians. Nobody in the Syria of the future will ruin an arrangement which is extremely good for Syria. And the Russians are NOT to ruin the agreement which to them is the best they ever had.
Reply With Quote
  #230  
Old 03.08.2011, 15:22
hoppy
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
View Post
MOD EDIT: VIDEO REMOVED
CNN confirmed that this is in Hama however it is the opposition throwing the bodies of secret service/ informants off the bridge. The opposition say that this is only one renegade faction that they do not want to be judged by such barbarity. However I did say that it is going to get very bloody-not the same as Egypt or Libya.
At first it was rumoured that Russia would back UN action in Syria against the human Rights violations, but then Russia announced that they would block action. UN members ( France) tried to persuade Russia that this would not be the same as Libya- not military intervention or No-Fly zone, but so far Russia remain unconvinced. Russia is now helping Iran with the nuclear devlopment for peaceful means.

Hopefully they will work something out, this is already civil war.

I wish that I could fast forward a few years and read the accounts of all the backdoor deals that are being made at present in the ME.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_1...50-503543.html

Last edited by Uncle Max; 04.08.2011 at 14:04. Reason: Quoted original post removed
Reply With Quote
  #231  
Old 04.08.2011, 02:48
Pashosh's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Baden
Posts: 432
Groaned at 172 Times in 127 Posts
Thanked 1,627 Times in 880 Posts
Pashosh is considered knowledgeablePashosh is considered knowledgeablePashosh is considered knowledgeable
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
View Post
very brutal video
As expected: there is very little democracy involved, mostly sectarian violence.

Quite a few people who gave Syria as an example of how different religions and sects should live together peacefully are now eating humble pie.
Reply With Quote
  #232  
Old 08.08.2011, 11:41
Chemmie's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Zurich
Posts: 3,991
Groaned at 31 Times in 27 Posts
Thanked 4,752 Times in 2,153 Posts
Chemmie has a reputation beyond reputeChemmie has a reputation beyond reputeChemmie has a reputation beyond reputeChemmie has a reputation beyond reputeChemmie has a reputation beyond reputeChemmie has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

apparently anonymous took over their Ministry of Defense Website.

http://i.imgur.com/TlB4N.jpg
(screenshot, site is down now)


what a world we live in!
Reply With Quote
  #233  
Old 15.08.2011, 22:50
Pashosh's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Baden
Posts: 432
Groaned at 172 Times in 127 Posts
Thanked 1,627 Times in 880 Posts
Pashosh is considered knowledgeablePashosh is considered knowledgeablePashosh is considered knowledgeable
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Turkey is now threatening Syria.
What is left unanswered : Threatening to do what ?
Reply With Quote
  #234  
Old 15.08.2011, 23:43
hoppy
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Four of the top generals have resigned, there is no effective leadership for the Air Force. The army is secular, the government more religious. Perhaps the US hope to re-establish bases in Turkey?

It is interesting. Time Magazine suggests that if Iran is made to choose between Turkey and Syria, they will choose Turkey in the hope of befriending the new Syrian power. I think that Iran hopes to keep both. The US is heavily dependent on the Incirlik Air Base for the occupation of Iraq. The base is at present affected by an Armenian lawsuit.

Quote:
A Los Angeles Federal District Court has given Ankara until August 19 to present its case in a suit brought by Armenians seeking compensation for lands that once belonged to their ancestors and subsequently used for the Incirlik Air Base .

The U.S. Air Force and the Turkish Air Force are the primary users of the base.


The plaintiffs are demanding $63.9 million dollars as compensation for the 49.5 hectares of property seized during the 1915 Genocide.
As usual it all depends on Iran- they are arch manipulators.

Last edited by hoppy; 15.08.2011 at 23:58.
Reply With Quote
  #235  
Old 16.08.2011, 14:27
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 9,003
Groaned at 300 Times in 259 Posts
Thanked 12,727 Times in 7,004 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

quote "The assault by Syrian security forces on the al-Raml Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia amounts to "a crime against humanity", the Palestine Liberation Organisation has said. Yasser Abed Rabbo, the PLO's secretary general, told Reuters"

Why do the Syrians do that? What sort of message are they sending & to whom?
Reply With Quote
  #236  
Old 16.08.2011, 15:30
Pashosh's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Baden
Posts: 432
Groaned at 172 Times in 127 Posts
Thanked 1,627 Times in 880 Posts
Pashosh is considered knowledgeablePashosh is considered knowledgeablePashosh is considered knowledgeable
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
View Post
quote "The assault by Syrian security forces on the al-Raml Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia amounts to "a crime against humanity", the Palestine Liberation Organisation has said. Yasser Abed Rabbo, the PLO's secretary general, told Reuters"

Why do the Syrians do that? What sort of message are they sending & to whom?
The PLO complains about crimes against humanity perpetrated by other Arabs against palestinians. Interesting considering Syria sheltered and is sheltering palestinian terrorists (Khaled Mashal, for example) - maybe they need to contact them to do something about it.

Assad is doing everything he can to stay in power, killing palestinians is not something the Assad's shied from before (Wikipedia reference-linkTel_al-Zaatar_massacre )
Reply With Quote
  #237  
Old 16.08.2011, 15:55
F16 F16 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Spreitenbach
Posts: 194
Groaned at 76 Times in 37 Posts
Thanked 181 Times in 90 Posts
F16 is considered unworthyF16 is considered unworthyF16 is considered unworthyF16 is considered unworthy
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
View Post
Four of the top generals have resigned, there is no effective leadership for the Air Force. The army is secular, the government more religious. Perhaps the US hope to re-establish bases in Turkey?

It is interesting. Time Magazine suggests that if Iran is made to choose between Turkey and Syria, they will choose Turkey in the hope of befriending the new Syrian power. I think that Iran hopes to keep both. The US is heavily dependent on the Incirlik Air Base for the occupation of Iraq. The base is at present affected by an Armenian lawsuit.



As usual it all depends on Iran- they are arch manipulators.
nonsense comment, mainly for lack of information.

Turkish Air Force has nearly a hundred generals and has a standing commander at the time being, the ex-commander (who did not resign but asked for his retirement, sort of resigning without loosing his pension) was due retiring in 3 months anyway. There is no lack of leadership in Turkish military, its business as usual

US continues to have many functional bases in Turkey, nothing is affected by such a lawsuit, but even if it did, it would only please Turks more as they want american bases out as soon as possible

Next time check your sources
Reply With Quote
  #238  
Old 16.08.2011, 20:26
Wollishofener's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Glattbrugg
Posts: 19,026
Groaned at 333 Times in 258 Posts
Thanked 11,716 Times in 6,858 Posts
Wollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
View Post
Four of the top generals have resigned, there is no effective leadership for the Air Force. The army is secular, the government more religious. Perhaps the US hope to re-establish bases in Turkey?

It is interesting. Time Magazine suggests that if Iran is made to choose between Turkey and Syria, they will choose Turkey in the hope of befriending the new Syrian power. I think that Iran hopes to keep both. The US is heavily dependent on the Incirlik Air Base for the occupation of Iraq. The base is at present affected by an Armenian lawsuit.



As usual it all depends on Iran- they are arch manipulators.
A) Why should Iran have to choose between Turkey and Syria ? Iran co-operated quite well with both for years, in spite of both these countries being secular and the Syrian government even being anti-fundamentalist and the Turkish government being NON-fundamentalist by Iranian standards. Iran will not take sides. And will not allow it to be torn into a Levantine power struggle. They already found it difficult to cope, when Hizbullah got under attack from Israel and could not help Hizbullah to lose in the last parliamentary elections against the Amal Party.
B) What should Iran manipulate and how ? They of course will try to assist Dr Assad as long as possible, as whomever succeeds will be Sunnite and not Allaouite-Shi'ite.
C) What can Turkey really do ? Nothing for the moment. But in case the Assad regime collapses they might capture the Kurdish North-East of Syria by military force. To prevent that area to join autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan.
Reply With Quote
  #239  
Old 18.08.2011, 15:29
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 9,003
Groaned at 300 Times in 259 Posts
Thanked 12,727 Times in 7,004 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
View Post
A) Why should Iran have to choose between Turkey and Syria ? Iran co-operated quite well with both for years, in spite of both these countries being secular and the Syrian government even being anti-fundamentalist and the Turkish government being NON-fundamentalist by Iranian standards. Iran will not take sides. And will not allow it to be torn into a Levantine power struggle. They already found it difficult to cope, when Hizbullah got under attack from Israel and could not help Hizbullah to lose in the last parliamentary elections against the Amal Party.
B) What should Iran manipulate and how ? They of course will try to assist Dr Assad as long as possible, as whomever succeeds will be Sunnite and not Allaouite-Shi'ite.
C) What can Turkey really do ? Nothing for the moment. But in case the Assad regime collapses they might capture the Kurdish North-East of Syria by military force. To prevent that area to join autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan.
About C. - possible I suppose? They seem quite happy to go over their Iraq border so why not to Syria.
Today's news " Turkish warplanes have pounded a string of Kurdish rebel targets during cross-border raids into northern Iraq in apparent retaliation for an ambush on Turkish forces."
Reply With Quote
  #240  
Old 19.08.2011, 02:18
Wollishofener's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Glattbrugg
Posts: 19,026
Groaned at 333 Times in 258 Posts
Thanked 11,716 Times in 6,858 Posts
Wollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
View Post
About C. - possible I suppose? They seem quite happy to go over their Iraq border so why not to Syria.
Today's news " Turkish warplanes have pounded a string of Kurdish rebel targets during cross-border raids into northern Iraq in apparent retaliation for an ambush on Turkish forces."
Absolutely, But I would never go as far as to say they WILL. While I am fairly certain they will
Reply With Quote
Reply




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Offering: Private Apartment in St. Gallen from 20.03.10 till 10.04.10 jttraveller Property wanted 0 16.01.2010 19:10
FLATshare/RoomShare - anywhere in CH till 30 Sept thick_guy_9 Property wanted 0 27.08.2009 15:19
Flat in basel just for 2 month till novamber? hamdi Property wanted 0 26.08.2008 18:42
Anyone else experiencing roadworks going on till late? argus Complaints corner 12 08.08.2008 14:59
For Sale till next saturday Anton Items for sale 11 11.01.2008 13:13


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 13:09.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0