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  #461  
Old 30.09.2015, 23:09
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Well, Russia was invited by Syria, and the US wasn't. In fact, US actions there are questionable. So once again, Putin scores a point against Obama.

Geez, Putin makes Obama look quite amateur.
It's a military power play between the countries kinda "my willy is bigger than yours" ...

Maybe Russia genuinely wants to score some points in Europe after United Nations General Assembly which will put them hopefully back in the game again. Sanctions will be reviewed again soon and image counts these days you know?

Last edited by jacek; 01.10.2015 at 00:05.
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  #462  
Old 30.09.2015, 23:11
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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It's a military power play between two the countries kinda "my wildly is bigger than yours" ...

Maybe Russia wants to score some points in Europe after United Nations assembly which will put them hopefully back in the game again. Sanctions will be reviewed again soon and image counts you know?

About "Russia wants to score some points in Europe " If Russia follows Erdogan and claims to be fighting ISIS while actually doing something else then their points score will be negative?
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  #463  
Old 30.09.2015, 23:19
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Sanctions will be reviewed again soon and image counts these days you know?
Bingo. Now he has ammo to point out the hipocrisy. "They bomb sovereign states, while I, Vlad, help them".
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  #464  
Old 30.09.2015, 23:32
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

I'm really losing the plot there in the Middle East. In the 80's and 90's it was easy: there were all these bad dictators there, who do mean stuff to their people. Got it. Then the US invaded Iraq (finally) and Saddam was gone. "Mission Accomplished". Then "Arab Spring" happened and more dictators were gone. Now all these countries were free, and peace and democracy could take root. Hurray. ...but then it didn't (whoops). Instead, despite being handed "Democracy for Dummies" books and given pre-printed Constitutions to pre-made Parliaments, it somehow failed. And instead, with all these "bad dictators" gone, it turned into the "Wild West" for Jihadists (yet Obama tells us it's "violent extremism", nothing to do with Muslims).

...now, Western leaders are telling us that Assad is a "bad dictator who does mean stuff to his people" and needs to go. Can someone explain to me why this is something to worry about? Didn't we all just learn that without the strongmen gone there is only a vacuum left where the extremists flourish? Democracy will not happen in the Middle East, it's dictators or anarchy, and of these options, dictators seem more manageable.
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  #465  
Old 30.09.2015, 23:50
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Probably people who care about factual realities.

So WWIII may come about like a slow gradual boil the proverbial frog does not notice, imstead of a single earth shattering event.
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Bingo. Now he has ammo to point out the hipocrisy. "They bomb sovereign states, while I, Vlad, help them".


About "Probably people who care about factual realities." Ah, military historians.


About ""They bomb sovereign states, while I, Vlad, help them" Apart from the elephant in the room called Ukraine (circa 1.5 million refugees), why doesn't he just recall the Russian army?
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  #466  
Old 01.10.2015, 00:02
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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I'm really losing the plot there in the Middle East. In the 80's and 90's it was easy: there were all these bad dictators there, who do mean stuff to their people. Got it. Then the US invaded Iraq (finally) and Saddam was gone. "Mission Accomplished". Then "Arab Spring" happened and more dictators were gone. Now all these countries were free, and peace and democracy could take root. Hurray. ...but then it didn't (whoops). Instead, despite being handed "Democracy for Dummies" books and given pre-printed Constitutions to pre-made Parliaments, it somehow failed. And instead, with all these "bad dictators" gone, it turned into the "Wild West" for Jihadists (yet Obama tells us it's "violent extremism", nothing to do with Muslims).

...now, Western leaders are telling us that Assad is a "bad dictator who does mean stuff to his people" and needs to go. Can someone explain to me why this is something to worry about? Didn't we all just learn that without the strongmen gone there is only a vacuum left where the extremists flourish? Democracy will not happen in the Middle East, it's dictators or anarchy, and of these options, dictators seem more manageable.

One view but Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia seem to be doing OK, also Jordan and Oman made some positive changes.
Not sure how to label Lebanon?
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  #467  
Old 01.10.2015, 10:28
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Forget for a minute what they say, and consider what they do:
-ISIS mainly fights Syrian Rebels
-ISIS rarely fights Syrian Army
-Coalition supports Syrian Rebels
-Coalition bombs ISIS
-Syrian Army mainly fights Syrian Rebels
.Russia bombs Syrian Rebels

Theses dots point to allegations that Assad and ISIS have an implicit strategy to go after the Syrian Rebels first. So while the coalition is bombing ISIS, Russia is bombing the Syrian rebels.

I think you'd have to closely observe what Russia does to understand its motives, not what they say.
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  #468  
Old 01.10.2015, 11:25
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Forget for a minute what they say, and consider what they do:
-ISIS mainly fights Syrian Rebels
-ISIS rarely fights Syrian Army
-Coalition supports Syrian Rebels
-Coalition bombs ISIS
-Syrian Army mainly fights Syrian Rebels
.Russia bombs Syrian Rebels

Theses dots point to allegations that Assad and ISIS have an implicit strategy to go after the Syrian Rebels first. So while the coalition is bombing ISIS, Russia is bombing the Syrian rebels.

I think you'd have to closely observe what Russia does to understand its motives, not what they say.
"-ISIS rarely fights Syrian Army"

Oh Really

ISIS 2014 Eastern Syria offensive
Battle of Al-Tabqa air base
Menagh Air Base
Division 17 Army base
Regiment 121 Army base
Kwayres air base
Brigade 93 base
Deir Ezzor air base
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  #469  
Old 01.10.2015, 11:43
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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"-ISIS rarely fights Syrian Army"

Oh Really
Correct. ISIS goal is to primarily establish a caliphate, and toppling Assad is secondary. Syrian Rebel goals are to topple Assad. Syrian Rebels who have joined ISIS quickly get disillusioned as they find themselves fighting alongside non-Syrians against real Syrians. They both have separate goals. For Assad, ISIS is the lesser of two evils. So he and the Russians (and ISIS) will likely go after the Syrian rebels first.
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  #470  
Old 01.10.2015, 11:53
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Correct. ISIS goal is to primarily establish a caliphate, and toppling Assad is secondary. Syrian Rebel goals are to topple Assad. Syrian Rebels who have joined ISIS quickly get disillusioned as they find themselves fighting alongside non-Syrians against real Syrians. They both have separate goals. For Assad, ISIS is the lesser of two evils. So he and the Russians (and ISIS) will likely go after the Syrian rebels first.
It's getting more complicated like in Tolkien's trilogy. There are elves, dwarves, humans and hobbits who fight Uruk-hai, goblins, trolls , spiders dragons and other creatures. They're all evil who serve one lord Sauron. They can be classified just like here: http://www.zzickle.com/tolkien/people/monsters.html

Last edited by jacek; 01.10.2015 at 12:07.
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  #471  
Old 01.10.2015, 12:40
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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One view but Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia seem to be doing OK, also Jordan and Oman made some positive changes.
Not sure how to label Lebanon?

Lebanon has integrated almost a miillion Syrians and is a definite success Story, -You can also speak about Egypt in regard to positive changes as well as the UAE and Qatar. And Mr Putin is interested in the Allawite (Assad Clan) dominated Tartous-Latakia Region but not in the Syrian outback


AND Putin is busily re-activating the once powerful Iraqi Air Force AND Putin hopes to take ISIS into a Baghdad-Latakia Sandwich


For Dr Assad, ISIS is THE deadly danger. To him, his Family, his clan and all the Allawites plus the Ismaelites and the Druzes and the Syrian Christians while the FSA is to be brought into alliance with the Assad regime

Last edited by Wollishofener; 01.10.2015 at 12:55.
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  #472  
Old 01.10.2015, 15:00
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Correct. ISIS goal is to primarily establish a caliphate, and toppling Assad is secondary. Syrian Rebel goals are to topple Assad. Syrian Rebels who have joined ISIS quickly get disillusioned as they find themselves fighting alongside non-Syrians against real Syrians. They both have separate goals. For Assad, ISIS is the lesser of two evils. So he and the Russians (and ISIS) will likely go after the Syrian rebels first.
About "ISIS goal is to primarily establish a caliphate" So who owns the land in Syria not currently occupied by ISIS; Assad and Syrian rebels.
So your idea is that for ISIS to expand the Caliphate they will fight the rebels not the Syrian army; the same rebels who will be harder to defeat as they so proved when they got the land by defeating the Syrian army
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  #473  
Old 01.10.2015, 15:04
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

That is along the lines of what they are doing. As they drive away rebels, many of the rebels get absorbed into ISIS. They are fighting for the hearts and minds of Sunnis first, while they try to annihilate non-Sunnis. At the moment, they are in conflict with other jihadist organisations, such as Al Qaeda.

Classical revolutionary tactic. Attack the middle moderate ground, polarise the extremes down to a simple equation of US vs. THEM.
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  #474  
Old 01.10.2015, 15:31
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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About "ISIS goal is to primarily establish a caliphate" So who owns the land in Syria not currently occupied by ISIS; Assad and Syrian rebels.
So your idea is that for ISIS to expand the Caliphate they will fight the rebels not the Syrian army; the same rebels who will be harder to defeat as they so proved when they got the land by defeating the Syrian army

The FSA Free Syrian Army did not defeat the Syrian army but are themselves part of that army. The Syrian army is still in control of the areas they controlled before. Putin wants to press the FSA into alliance with the government army
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  #475  
Old 01.10.2015, 21:04
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Nothing has changed in the US foreign policy

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  #476  
Old 02.10.2015, 08:32
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

From today's Guardian "Russia’s move clearly risks counter-action by countries supporting the rebels. According to one independent analyst, that may have already begun, with the Qataris – acting with the agreement of Saudi Arabia – flying in planeloads of weapons to Turkish airbases."

Of course every action has a reaction!

If they should start supplying ground to air missiles to rebels then it will get very messy for all countries flying bombing missions, no indications that they are doing this.
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  #477  
Old 02.10.2015, 09:38
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

The U.S., France and the backward Gulf Arab states (Saudi, Qatar...) have no legitimate business in Syria, and no country has the right to arm opponents to a government without being attacked by that government. The only exception would be a UN resolution allowing such actions.

There is not much difference between "US-trained rebels", al-Nustra & ISIS terrorists. The Obama administration and his French lackeys (Hollande, Fabius, Le Drian) have been acting illegally at the outset on the so called "Arab Springs". This is indeed sheer madness!

Assad is the only hope for stability in Syria. The Syrian war only profits Israhell and Saudi Arabia (a rogue monarchy with a Wahabi death cult, willing to kill anyone and everyone for power) and meant to allow them to dominate the Middle East. Meanwhile back home, U.S. politicians continue to squander trillions with no benefit to America.

I have to hand it to Russia and Iran, they stuck by Assad from day 1. Now that Russia has entered the picture, everyone else who was against Assad are starting to back peddle on their position. Go Putin!
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  #478  
Old 02.10.2015, 09:47
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

The Western alliance are responding to a request from Iraq to protect them from the ISIS cross border terrorists based in Syria.
Consequently the Western actions are legitimate and explains the Western focus against ISIS.
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  #479  
Old 02.10.2015, 10:23
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Iran reportedly sent in ground troops, and plan to send in more.

This is a very dangerous situation. Particularly because of the ambiguity and duplicity in what is said vs. what is done. Lots of room for misunderstandings and errors.

At this point, since his inability and incompetence to lead caused this opening to widen, Obama might as well let go. Too late to try to play the lead role here. Just retrench to make sure it does not spread to Turkey nor Israel.
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  #480  
Old 03.10.2015, 00:56
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Several newspapers report
"On Friday afternoon, the Syrian Al-Qaeda group “Jabhat Al-Nusra” and their allies from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) attempted to retaliate against the Russian Air Force after the latter destroyed their hideouts inside the town of Deir Hanna in the Latakia Governorate’s northeastern countryside. However, the four grad rockets they fired towards the Bassel Al-Assad International Airport in the Jableh District fell short of their target."

The fact that the Russians have based themselves within Syria puts them in easy range of retaliation attacks by rebel forces and are now probably the number one target; wonder what the rebels will try next?
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