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  #541  
Old 13.10.2015, 13:41
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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About "the US will be able to say, "Yeah, but we defeated ISIS". Even though ISIS is the much easier foe to defeat."
Why would the US want to defeat the rebels that the US themselves support; you do not make sense?
Obviously you are a little bit thick but let me spell it out in simple terms for you. There are "two" battles going on in Syria at the moment. The important battle is the Assad vs. anti-Assad civil war. The other one is the ISIS bullshit in the wastelands of the country. The "rebels" are different. There is obviously a bit of confusion near the Western-ISIS front but not so much. Everybody hates ISIS including Assad and the rebels that are fighting him. Many of the rebels directly fighting ISIS also hate Assad and the main groups fighting Assad. Everybody won't be happy once Assad is back in control and ISIS are defeated but it has the chance of returning to the shaky-stability of a few years ago.

The US has been for the most part supporting the anti-Assad rebels and anti-ISIS rebels up to this point. I believe that they will silently retreat from their support for the anti-Assad rebels but step up their anti-ISIS support.
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  #542  
Old 13.10.2015, 14:13
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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A U.S. defense official described the airdrop as a new “normal” occurrence that coalition forces would continue to conduct “as needed.”
The airdrop supports the Pentagon’s recent decision to “pause” its failed Syrian rebel train and equip program. Instead of training and equipping moderate rebel fighters outside of Syria, White House officials announced Friday the program would ramp up materiel support to trusted units fighting on Syrian battlefields, while training only rebel leaders in Turkey.
The US seems to be altering it's tactics in Syria, but is not exactly backing down. Bear in mind, it's not only the US/EU who is backing the anti-Assad fighters, Saudi's delivered 500 TOW anti-tank missiles last week to anti-Assad fighters.


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The effectiveness of the TOWs allowed the rebels to do better than expected against the Syrian military. For instance, after the Assad regime launched a Russian-backed counter-offensive against the rebels last week, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and other affiliated rebel units carried out a "tank massacre."


According to the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights, the rebel forces armed "with US-made TOW missiles … [and] other guided rockets ... caused the destruction … of over 15 armored cars, vehicles, and tanks," as of last week. That number has only risen since then.


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  #543  
Old 13.10.2015, 14:16
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Obviously you are a little bit thick but let me spell it out in simple terms for you. There are "two" battles going on in Syria at the moment. The important battle is the Assad vs. anti-Assad civil war. The other one is the ISIS bullshit in the wastelands of the country. The "rebels" are different. There is obviously a bit of confusion near the Western-ISIS front but not so much. Everybody hates ISIS including Assad and the rebels that are fighting him. Many of the rebels directly fighting ISIS also hate Assad and the main groups fighting Assad. Everybody won't be happy once Assad is back in control and ISIS are defeated but it has the chance of returning to the shaky-stability of a few years ago.

The US has been for the most part supporting the anti-Assad rebels and anti-ISIS rebels up to this point. I believe that they will silently retreat from their support for the anti-Assad rebels but step up their anti-ISIS support.
Good, you agree that the US would not want to defeat the rebels that they themselves support.

About "the ISIS bullshit in the wastelands of the country" This wasteland includes all the Syrian oilfields. These oilfields are capable of producing one third of a million barrels of oil per day.
Maybe you missed the point but many conflicts in this area have been around possession of oil.
ISIS have strategically taken over Syria's major oil assets; hardly a wasteland!

Maybe Assad does not see it as important that he has lost control of his major assets but sooner or later he will run out of money to pay his army; then he will have issues.
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  #544  
Old 13.10.2015, 14:23
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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The US seems to be altering it's tactics in Syria, but is not exactly backing down. Bear in mind, it's not only the US/EU who is backing the anti-Assad fighters, Saudi's delivered 500 TOW anti-tank missiles last week to anti-Assad fighters.
Ironically the rebels are also using Russian 9K111 Fagot missiles against Syrian armour; when you sell weapons then you no longer have control over where they are used and who is attacked
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  #545  
Old 13.10.2015, 14:35
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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The US seems to be altering it's tactics in Syria, but is not exactly backing down. Bear in mind, it's not only the US/EU who is backing the anti-Assad fighters, Saudi's delivered 500 TOW anti-tank missiles last week to anti-Assad fighters.
A killed tank is likely to burn, with lots of black smoke. Nothing of that kind is showing following the first hit, and the 2nd is cut off right when it hits.

Not sure if anything can be said based on that vid.
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  #546  
Old 13.10.2015, 14:56
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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About "the ISIS bullshit in the wastelands of the country" This wasteland includes all the Syrian oilfields. These oilfields are capable of producing one third of a million barrels of oil per day.
Maybe you missed the point but many conflicts in this area have been around possession of oil.
ISIS have strategically taken over Syria's major oil assets; hardly a wasteland!

Maybe Assad does not see it as important that he has lost control of his major assets but sooner or later he will run out of money to pay his army; then he will have issues.
The key point being that the oil will still be there when he deals with regaining control of the western part of his country. If he were to shift his focus to fighting ISIS, and controlling the oilfields what would he gain? He would quickly lose control of the Western part (where the important refineries are as well) and be sitting out in the desert with nothing. Money from Iran and Russia should keep him from needing the short-term oil revenues.
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  #547  
Old 13.10.2015, 15:08
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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The key point being that the oil will still be there when he deals with regaining control of the western part of his country. If he were to shift his focus to fighting ISIS, and controlling the oilfields what would he gain? He would quickly lose control of the Western part (where the important refineries are as well) and be sitting out in the desert with nothing. Money from Iran and Russia should keep him from needing the short-term oil revenues.
So you agree it is not a "wasteland" that the ISIS occupy?

About "The key point being that the oil will still be there when he deals with regaining control of the western part of his country" Assuming that Assad does get so far; this joint Russian/Syrian advance has been under way for a week now but there is a great lack of claims of victory and territory gained.

Hopefully the nasty ISIS would not set fire to the oil fields if they were pushed out
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  #548  
Old 13.10.2015, 15:10
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Ironically the rebels are also using Russian 9K111 Fagot missiles against Syrian armour; when you sell weapons then you no longer have control over where they are used and who is attacked
Welcome to Business 101 or what?
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  #549  
Old 13.10.2015, 18:50
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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So you agree it is not a "wasteland" that the ISIS occupy?
No, I don't agree. Draw a line from Aleppo to Damascus. Everything to the East of that line is not worth defending. Sure, it has value to Syria: oilfields and the bit just next to the Euphrates, just not at this moment.
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  #550  
Old 13.10.2015, 19:48
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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No, I don't agree. Draw a line from Aleppo to Damascus. Everything to the East of that line is not worth defending. Sure, it has value to Syria: oilfields and the bit just next to the Euphrates, just not at this moment.
I tend to agree: The Syria is under developed in the Cities, and almost totaly undeveloped outside the cities.

Can the Russians & Iran & Hizbullah & Assad beat the rebels and/or ISIS ? see the U.S in Iraq & Afghanistan for hints.
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  #551  
Old 13.10.2015, 21:16
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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No, I don't agree. Draw a line from Aleppo to Damascus. Everything to the East of that line is not worth defending. Sure, it has value to Syria: oilfields and the bit just next to the Euphrates, just not at this moment.
So you believe the Syrian oilfields have no value?
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  #552  
Old 13.10.2015, 21:26
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Despite the wall-to-wall media hysteria that it has engendered, Russia's initial campaign in Syria has been tiny, massively outclassed in scale by the American air campaign against the Islamic State. Depending on who is doing the counting, Russia's deployment of combat aircraft is somewhere between 10 and 15 percent of the size of the U.S.-led coalition's. A massive, Afghanistan-style invasion this is not.
But while Russia's air campaign has had no appreciable impact on the fighting — and unless it is massively scaled up, will not — it has succeeded in further poisoning relations with a host of countries, most noticeably Turkey.
Russia is wasting ever-scarcer resources on a fight that it cannot win in support of a regime that, in the long term, is completely doomed. In the process of doing so, it is engendering fury among many of the region's most powerful economic, political, and military actors.
Put more simply: If the air campaign in Syria is what a Russian foreign policy "triumph" looks like, then I would hate to see a defeat.
Although the "war porn" videos of MIG's blowing up some "bad guys" is a cheap way to score political points back home, unless Russia is willing to commit a larger number of forces, their air campaign won't have much effect on the war there anyway. Russia is just buying time for Assad to do some political maneuvering.
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  #553  
Old 13.10.2015, 21:53
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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So you believe the Syrian oilfields have no value?
For the fifth time: At this moment, the oilfields have no value to Assad. With the sanctions that are currently in place, there is no official way to sell the oil. What would be the point of defending the oilfields from a force such as ISIS when you have nothing to gain? And on the global scale of things, the Syrian oilfields are not very valuable.
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  #554  
Old 13.10.2015, 22:01
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Although the "war porn" videos of MIG's blowing up some "bad guys" is a cheap way to score political points back home, unless Russia is willing to commit a larger number of forces, their air campaign won't have much effect on the war there anyway. Russia is just buying time for Assad to do some political maneuvering.
Looking at Russian TV broadcasts, Putin is certainly raising that strange patriotic feeling. National leaders tend to use these things to momentarily unite a country. Good time for him to let any skeletons out of their closets at the height of this.

Meanwhile, first time ever on CNN, I saw a crying bloodied baby after a Russian bombing. I don't recall seeing any of that on CNN before the Russian intervention.
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  #555  
Old 13.10.2015, 22:11
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Can the Russians & Iran & Hizbullah & Assad beat the rebels and/or ISIS ? see the U.S in Iraq & Afghanistan for hints.
The geography/landscape of Afghanistan is very different to that of ISIS occupied Syria. There aren't many places to hide in the vast expanses of Syria. In this regards, it will be much easier to hunt down the ISIS forces. The difficulties will be in the urban warfare like was encountered in Iraq. Fortunately, for Syria, there are only a few urban centers out there and a significant number of the "good" guys have already been slaughtered or have fled from ISIS. I suspect that with a massive bombing campaign, ISIS will retreat from Syria and head to Iraq. Now that's a different story.
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  #556  
Old 13.10.2015, 22:17
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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The geography/landscape of Afghanistan is very different to that of ISIS occupied Syria. There aren't many places to hide in the vast expanses of Syria. In this regards, it will be much easier to hunt down the ISIS forces. The difficulties will be in the urban warfare like was encountered in Iraq. Fortunately, for Syria, there are only a few urban centers out there and a significant number of the "good" guys have already been slaughtered or have fled from ISIS. I suspect that with a massive bombing campaign, ISIS will retreat from Syria and head to Iraq. Now that's a different story.
Befoere you said that SHiR (Syria, Hizbullah, Russia) will defeat the Rebels andthen turn to ISIS. now it's ISIS first then rebels ?

Anyway - How about a wager ? what are you willing to bet that SHiR will beat the opposition in 12 months ?
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  #557  
Old 13.10.2015, 22:40
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Befoere you said that SHiR (Syria, Hizbullah, Russia) will defeat the Rebels andthen turn to ISIS. now it's ISIS first then rebels ?

Anyway - How about a wager ? what are you willing to bet that SHiR will beat the opposition in 12 months ?
You're right, I misread that you were only referring to ISIS.

Correct, rebels first and then ISIS. The rebels are barely hanging together at this moment. If they (Hezbollah, Russia and Syria) can work together, it won't take much to completely topple them. Couple this with the coming of winter, it's looking pretty good for Assad. Hopefully Russia's presence will also force a dialogue to accomplish this quickly.

Regarding the wager: It feels kind of strange to be placing a bet on something that involves the loss of so many lives but I'll take you up on it. I'll wager that within 12 months, the major fighting is over with the victors being on the side of Assad. 100 CHFs to the charity of the victor's choosing.
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  #558  
Old 13.10.2015, 22:45
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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You're right, I misread that you were only referring to ISIS.

Correct, rebels first and then ISIS. The rebels are barely hanging together at this moment. If they (Hezbollah, Russia and Syria) can work together, it won't take much to completely topple them. Couple this with the coming of winter, it's looking pretty good for Assad. Hopefully Russia's presence will also force a dialogue to accomplish this quickly.

Regarding the wager: It feels kind of strange to be placing a bet on something that involves the loss of so many lives but I'll take you up on it. I'll wager that within 12 months, the major fighting is over with the victors being on the side of Assad. 100 CHFs to the charity of the victor's choosing.
Details: if by 12.10.2016 23:59 there will be:
1. less than 50 casualties per month in Syria.
2. The Assad clan remains in power in Syria.

I will give 100 CHF to your chosen charity, if not - you will give 100 CHF to a charity that I choose.
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  #559  
Old 13.10.2015, 22:52
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Details: if by 12.10.2016 23:59 there will be:
1. less than 50 casualties per month in Syria.
2. The Assad clan remains in power in Syria.

I will give 100 CHF to your chosen charity, if not - you will give 100 CHF to a charity that I choose.
I would accept either the Assad clan in power in 12 months or Assad willingly stepping down to handover the reins to a transitional government. Hoping for the latter.

The 50 casualties per month will be the more difficult condition but I'm willing to wager with optimism.
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  #560  
Old 13.10.2015, 23:00
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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I would accept either the Assad clan in power in 12 months or Assad willingly stepping down to handover the reins to a transitional government. Hoping for the latter.

The 50 casualties per month will be the more difficult condition but I'm willing to wager with optimism.
Agreed. I'm afraid the Russians will pay a heavy price for their war in Syria.
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