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  #561  
Old 13.10.2015, 22:02
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

I don't see Russia doing all this for nothing. Not even for an extension contract for its bases. I would expect Putin to milk this situation for everything he can, applying pressure on Europe, which is more entangled now because of the refugee situation. I don't think Russia will be working itself out of a job, but will seek ways to elevate its importance. I think Putin will try to collect a check from the EU, the US, Turkey, Israel, and maybe even the other Arab countries. He knows other countries are bleeding because of this, and they have more to lose than Russia does. When he has an upper hand, he will then try to gain more and more concessions from them.
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  #562  
Old 13.10.2015, 22:12
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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For the fifth time: At this moment, the oilfields have no value to Assad. With the sanctions that are currently in place, there is no official way to sell the oil. What would be the point of defending the oilfields from a force such as ISIS when you have nothing to gain? And on the global scale of things, the Syrian oilfields are not very valuable.

ISIS do not have any problem selling the oil today.
Maybe the oilfields are not valuable on the global scale but on the Syrian level they are extremely valuable for Assad as in the only source of significant income.

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The geography/landscape of Afghanistan is very different to that of ISIS occupied Syria. There aren't many places to hide in the vast expanses of Syria. In this regards, it will be much easier to hunt down the ISIS forces. The difficulties will be in the urban warfare like was encountered in Iraq. Fortunately, for Syria, there are only a few urban centers out there and a significant number of the "good" guys have already been slaughtered or have fled from ISIS. I suspect that with a massive bombing campaign, ISIS will retreat from Syria and head to Iraq. Now that's a different story.


Let us hope ISIS do not learn to dig holes in the sand to hide in
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  #563  
Old 13.10.2015, 22:17
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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I don't see Russia doing all this for nothing. Not even for an extension contract for its bases. I would expect Putin to milk this situation for everything he can, applying pressure on Europe, which is more entangled now because of the refugee situation. I don't think Russia will be working itself out of a job, but will seek ways to elevate its importance. I think Putin will try to collect a check from the EU, the US, Turkey, Israel, and maybe even the other Arab countries. He knows other countries are bleeding because of this, and they have more to lose than Russia does. When he has an upper hand, he will then try to gain more and more concessions from them.


I would expect the relatively small Russian forces will be sucked into the Syrian mess and destroyed.


Russia and Syria together have been "advancing" for a week now with no claims of victories or territorial gains
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  #564  
Old 13.10.2015, 22:17
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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To me it is obvious that they are just trying to save face. They are finally admitting, though not openly, that they were foolish in thinking that they could solve this by opposing Assad. These airdrops are in the Northeast to fight against ISIS, not Assad. For whatever reason, many people think they are the real threat to stability in Syria. These airdrops will appease the casual viewers in the West.
Hmmm, saving face by losing more face is contradictory. I know Obama is somewhat amateur at foreign policy, but he's not a stupid. This behaviour looks more like someone fulfilling their end of an agreement. Except no particular agreement was well published related to this. So I assume it is a somewhat clandestine arrangement we may not even learn about for some time.

I wonder if anyone in the White House or Pentagon press corp has asked about this ammo drop.
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  #565  
Old 14.10.2015, 13:39
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

China signals unhappy!!
The People's Daily, the official paper of China's ruling Communist Party, said in a commentary that the United States and Russia seemed to be using Syria as a proxy for diplomatic and military competition, as during the Cold War.


"The United States and the Soviet Union used all sorts of diplomatic, economic and military actions on the soil of third countries, playing tit-for-tat games to increase their influence — it's an old scene from the Cold War," the newspaper wrote in a commentary.


"But we're in the 21st century now, and people need to get their heads around this," it added.
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  #566  
Old 14.10.2015, 14:04
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

In the Syrian capital Damascus, Russia's embassy was struck by two rockets, sparking panic among some 300 people waving Russian flags and pictures of Putin in support of Moscow's intervention.

Russian news agency Interfax here quoted an embassy official as saying the rockets hit "embassy territory" but that there were no casualties

The Turkish prime minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, here has warned the US and Russia against “unacceptable” military and political support for Syrian Kurdish forces fighting Islamic State in Syria. The two major powers are reported to be "quaking in their shoes"

ISIS are reported to be making public statements encouraging terror actions by Russian Muslims; generally it is not thought such actions will happen.

Several newspapers are reporting the Syrian/Russian/Iran/Hezobollah ground advance is not making much progress. It is claimed that Iran will transfer some ground troops from Iraq to strengthen this Syrian advance; this will benefit ISIS in Iraq.
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  #567  
Old 14.10.2015, 14:38
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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"But we're in the 21st century now, and people need to get their heads around this," it added.
Says the head of the Chinese Politburo, LOL, well, to be fair, China did adapt to the 21st century by altering it's Communism to be more.... Capitalistic?...I guess?...

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ISIS are reported to be making public statements encouraging terror actions by Russian Muslims; generally it is not thought such actions will happen.
Russian police arrested some ISIS members in Moscow this week who planned to blow up some public transport in Moscow. Chickens may be coming home to roost? Or maybe just some PR to keep Russian people hooked on the new "Syrian soap-opera"?

http://tass.ru/en/world/828157
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  #568  
Old 14.10.2015, 19:56
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

According to the ft today here ISIS are doing well in the "wasteland". They are producing up to 40,000 barrels of oil per day and have revenues of around $1.5m per day. Even the rebels who are fighting ISIS are buying oil from ISIS.
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  #569  
Old 14.10.2015, 20:14
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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According to the ft today here ISIS are doing well in the "wasteland". They are producing up to 40,000 barrels of oil per day and have revenues of around $1.5m per day. Even the rebels who are fighting ISIS are buying oil from ISIS.
Yeah, I saw something on that a few months back stating that Assad was even buying oil from ISIS. I seem to recall that they were selling it for $20.00 per barrel. I would be surprised if they managed to do that on a daily basis but it is still a good revenue stream regardless.

You and I have different perceptions of what "wasteland" is. I've been out there before (except for the Northeast) and I can't describe it as anything but wasteland. Sure it has it's beauty but it's a whole lot of nothing. Resources it has (oil and the Euphrates) but there would be a huge amount of terrain that would stretch Assad's forces pretty thinly and take away from protecting what is already controlled in the West.
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  #570  
Old 14.10.2015, 20:32
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

I can't imagine what anyone of those groups would be doing with oil. They need to refine it for any real use. The only thing is to resell it for a markup. In other words, underneath all this is a supply chain that is still working economically.

So instead of dropping bombs, why don't they just cut that up and starve them of revenue? Or is EVERYBODY complicit on the scam?
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  #571  
Old 14.10.2015, 20:36
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Everybody needs fuel. Assad was refining it at a couple of refineries that were (are?) still in operation in the West. The rest was being trucked to Turkey.
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  #572  
Old 14.10.2015, 20:42
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

I did some jobs in Kuwait recently. I have to say. What a useless bunch.

When the oil runs out and there is nobody to sell arms to then it will be over. But only for the big boys. The little boys will keep on fighting, tribe against tribe like before oil.

Probably the most ugly country I have travelled to. The oil infrastructure is mind blowing. Just miles and miles of it. I took a few photos. Reminded me of some hollywood movie of how it will look after we screw our planet.

I saw kuwait citizens just walking straight through passport control. And I told the customs there to go to hell when he tried to open a package for a power station. He backed off and let me go. Morons. Children.

That is what I think of when I think about this region. Horribly uneducated population. Poor souls. And to think that a long time ago this region was the place of world knowledge. Not kuwait some of the other countries.

I hope I never get another call to go there. And BTW just about every expat makes their own wine beer. Lovely bunch those saudi folks.
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  #573  
Old 14.10.2015, 20:55
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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I can't imagine what anyone of those groups would be doing with oil. They need to refine it for any real use. The only thing is to resell it for a markup. In other words, underneath all this is a supply chain that is still working economically.

So instead of dropping bombs, why don't they just cut that up and starve them of revenue? Or is EVERYBODY complicit on the scam?
Why do you assume ISIS has no refineries? You did not read the article I linked to did you?
BTW, Even Assad is buying oil from ISIS.
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  #574  
Old 14.10.2015, 20:57
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Why do you assume ISIS has no refineries? You did not read the article I linked to did you?
BTW, Even Assad is buying oil from ISIS.
I know ISIS does, but the rebel groups that are scattered probably don't. Besides, they can only refine what they can use. For revenue and trade, they would have to sell it to someone else.

I think they can handle this much better if they first starve it of revenue, thereby depleting their supplies and morale. Turkey should be able to cut that off.
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  #575  
Old 14.10.2015, 21:12
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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I know ISIS does, but the rebel groups that are scattered probably don't. Besides, they can only refine what they can use. For revenue and trade, they would have to sell it to someone else.

I think they can handle this much better if they first starve it of revenue, thereby depleting their supplies and morale. Turkey should be able to cut that off.

What are you proposing exactly?
Bombing the oil fields?
Telling them they are naughty boys?


As several people have posted, even Assad is buying oil from them to run his refineries.
Plus local refineries buy the oil.
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  #576  
Old 14.10.2015, 21:14
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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What are you proposing exactly?
Bombing the oil fields?
Telling them they are naughty boys?


As several people have posted, even Assad is buying oil from them to run his refineries.
Plus local refineries buy the oil.
I see. The article talks about how it is essential for the lives of normal people in the area, and cutting it off would cause a LOT more suffering for innocent people.
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  #577  
Old 14.10.2015, 21:20
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Plus Turkey is complicit in exporting the oil. And funneling the refugees to Europe. And letting the IS fighters travel back and forth, weapons supplies included.
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Old 14.10.2015, 23:33
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Situation is not looking good around Aleppo!
ISIS attacking from the North and the Govt/Russia/Iran/Hezbollah from the other direction (almost like they are working together! ) will really squeeze the rebels.
There have been no reports of clashes on the ground between the regime and ISIS .
ISIS has in the last days withdrawn from the Aleppo Infantry Academy (strategic military base) allowing the regime to move in.

Aleppo was a city of 3 million; this could easily generate another refugee wave of at least a half million, maybe one million.
Probably as planned by Putin.
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  #579  
Old 16.10.2015, 16:50
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Turkey shot down an "air vehicle" today that was in its airspace; believed to be a Russian drone but no confirmation yet.
It is claimed it crashed in Turkey after being shot.
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  #580  
Old 18.10.2015, 18:34
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

With the help of Russia for only 2 weeks Syrian Army are capturing the terrorists that the American's were "fighting" for few years now





The Americans were fighting who exactly?!
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