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  #601  
Old 21.10.2015, 20:27
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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More news creeping out about Assads reasons to go to Moscow.
Seems Iran and Russia are not working well together. Iran really wants to destroy ISIS and not so interested in Assads future, they are not really interested in fighting the "moderate" rebels and losing ground troops for this goal!

Remember Russia sold this as an Iran/Iraq/Syria/Russia anti ISIS alliance!
Iraq is also rocking the boat by asking Russia to bomb ISIS when Russia has no interest in this today.
Can you provide a source please?

Last edited by lewton; 21.10.2015 at 20:52.
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  #602  
Old 23.10.2015, 00:36
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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I think that it is a good strategy to deal with the rebels first as they are the ones causing hardships on the Syrian people. Once they are dealt with, ISIS will be a walk in the park.

The great news is that the alliance between Assad, Russia, Hezbollah and Iran is finally bringing some stability to the region. Not a great day for the Zionists.

Problem with "good strategy to deal with the rebels first " is the rebels are Sunnis who are the majority of the Syrian population so there is a lot dealing to do plus there are the anti Assad Kurds and others!
The Syrian army supported by Russia, Iran, Hezbollah have not made much progress in the three weeks they have been "advancing".


It is claimed the West aircraft are using Smart weapons to minimise civilian casualties and often fly home without using them. Whereas Russia are dropping dumb bombs all over the place including (illegal) cluster bombs. Difficult to verify such claims
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  #603  
Old 23.10.2015, 01:10
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Can you provide a source please?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/can-russ...ast-1445534148


We (Iran) are not working for Assad to stay in power forever as president.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...eputy-minister
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  #604  
Old 23.10.2015, 01:34
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Problem with "good strategy to deal with the rebels first " is the rebels are Sunnis who are the majority of the Syrian population so there is a lot dealing to do ....(
Assad is already in control of the majority of the Syrian population: estimated to be as high as 75%. There were many, many Sunnis who were successful under the Ba'athist regime. These people are anxious for this to be over so that they can resume their lives.

The problem is the number of splintered rebel groups that haven't been able to agree on anything over the past 4 years and change alliances on a daily basis. The unfortunate fact is that 250,000 people got caught in the crossfire of this. These rebel groups need a heavy hand to be dealt to them.

The concept of dividing up Syria a'la Yugoslavia is nonsense. It will never work. A secular state is the only way to go forward. Look at the example of non-secular state to the southwest of Syria to see how happy the natives are with that solution.
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  #605  
Old 23.10.2015, 10:26
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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These rebel groups need a heavy hand to be dealt to them.
Putin says he's willing to "reach out" to the "moderate rebels" that the USA has been supporting...which appears to be a shift in policy, as just last week Russia was saying that anyone opposing Assad was a terrorist.

Quote:
Putin said at a forum in the Russian resort of Sochi on Thursday evening.
"I asked him: 'What view would you take if we found, now in Syria, an armed opposition which nonetheless was ready to oppose and really fight against terrorists, against Islamic State? What would be your view if we were to support their efforts in fighting Islamic State in the same way we are supporting the Syrian army'," Putin said.
"He answered: 'I would view that positively'," Putin said of Assad.
The Russian president went on: "We are now thinking about this and are trying, if it works out, to reach these agreements."
...and not to be outdone by the US bombing a hospital two weeks ago, Russia has bombed four hospitals

Quote:
At least four hospitals have been bombed by fighter jets in north-western Syria since Russia’s intervention in the war began in late September, doctors and international observers claim.
The latest attack, on Tuesday, killed at least 12 people at Sarmin hospital in Idlib province. At least three of the victims were believed to be medical staff. Survivors and witnesses said the hospital was hit by two airstrikes at about 1pm.
Dr Mohamed Tennari, director of Sarmin hospital, said the facility appeared to have been directly targeted and could no longer serve patients on one of the fiercest frontlines in the war.
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  #606  
Old 23.10.2015, 10:42
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Putin says he's willing to "reach out" to the "moderate rebels" that the USA has been supporting...which appears to be a shift in policy, as just last week Russia was saying that anyone opposing Assad was a terrorist.



...and not to be outdone by the US bombing a hospital two weeks ago, Russia has bombed four hospitals
I think that the "moderate" rebels realize that their Arab spring isn't going to work out for them this time around. If Assad and Putin can bring these groups back into the fold, it would be good progress. USA is still keeping up the anti-Assad rhetoric but it is definitely toned down compared to previous. Everybody, including Assad, realizes that Assad is not good for the future of Syria but the Ba'athists being back in complete control of the country is a necessary stepping point to long-term stability.
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  #607  
Old 23.10.2015, 13:32
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Assad is already in control of the majority of the Syrian population: estimated to be as high as 75%. There were many, many Sunnis who were successful under the Ba'athist regime. These people are anxious for this to be over so that they can resume their lives.

The problem is the number of splintered rebel groups that haven't been able to agree on anything over the past 4 years and change alliances on a daily basis. The unfortunate fact is that 250,000 people got caught in the crossfire of this. These rebel groups need a heavy hand to be dealt to them.

The concept of dividing up Syria a'la Yugoslavia is nonsense. It will never work. A secular state is the only way to go forward. Look at the example of non-secular state to the southwest of Syria to see how happy the natives are with that solution.
About "There were many, many Sunnis who were successful under the Ba'athist regime." Yes but that was "then".
A lot has happened since and putting everything back in the box will not be easy. Any family that lost relatives will find it difficult to live with "the other side", such memories go back generations and will spoil both the present and the future.
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  #608  
Old 23.10.2015, 14:44
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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USA is still keeping up the anti-Assad rhetoric but it is definitely toned down compared to previous. Everybody, including Assad, realizes that Assad is not good for the future of Syria...
The only ones calling for Assad to step down has been the US/EU. I haven't heard Assad say he would step down, and Putin has stepped in militarily to prop him up, (paraphrasing Putin): "to support the legitimate government fight terrorists". I think their combined aim is to "win", if they wanted a "negotiated political agreement" with the other half of Syria then the Russian Air Force wouldn't be flying 70 sorties a day.
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  #609  
Old 23.10.2015, 18:03
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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The only ones calling for Assad to step down has been the US/EU. I haven't heard Assad say he would step down, and Putin has stepped in militarily to prop him up, (paraphrasing Putin): "to support the legitimate government fight terrorists". I think their combined aim is to "win", if they wanted a "negotiated political agreement" with the other half of Syria then the Russian Air Force wouldn't be flying 70 sorties a day.
Exactly, and as much as I dislike Putin and Assad, it looks like the only good solution at this moment.

When I say that Assad is not good for the future of Syria, the future I am referring to is more than 5-10 years. For the immediate future, his party being victorious is vital.
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  #610  
Old 23.10.2015, 18:14
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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About "There were many, many Sunnis who were successful under the Ba'athist regime." Yes but that was "then".
A lot has happened since and putting everything back in the box will not be easy. Any family that lost relatives will find it difficult to live with "the other side", such memories go back generations and will spoil both the present and the future.
Yes and no. In the ISIS infected areas, I would say this is more valid. The majority of the Sunni's in Syria are still not radicalized. If the economy can get back to a functioning state, there is hope. Of course there will be underlying tensions but there always have been. And of course, there is a strong possibility of the situation getting a lot worse before it gets better.
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  #611  
Old 23.10.2015, 18:25
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Yes and no. In the ISIS infected areas, I would say this is more valid. The majority of the Sunni's in Syria are still not radicalized. If the economy can get back to a functioning state, there is hope. Of course there will be underlying tensions but there always have been. And of course, there is a strong possibility of the situation getting a lot worse before it gets better.
I think this whole notion of "radicalized", "extremist" or "moderate" is deeply flawed, and explains the failures in this region. It doesn't really describe a type of group or person. Its more a phase of their political warfare. Note that many of them are not even from that region. For as long as outsiders keep operating on this flawed premise, they will never get anywhere in settling this region. Those notions are just conventions for justifying motivation for whatever action, but they are not useful for making any progress towards resolving this war, and it would be tragic to use them for making committed decisions.
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  #612  
Old 23.10.2015, 22:44
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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http://www.wsj.com/articles/can-russ...ast-1445534148


We (Iran) are not working for Assad to stay in power forever as president.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...eputy-minister
Thanks.
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  #613  
Old 23.10.2015, 23:19
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Interesting article:

The Iranian Project: Why Assad Has Turned to Moscow for Help

Quote:
All of this is taking place to the consternation of the Alawites, who have begun to voice their displeasure. "They are throwing us back a thousand years. We don't even wear headscarves and we aren't Shiites," Alawites complained on the Jableh News Facebook page. There were also grumblings when a Shiite mosque opened in Latakia and an imam there announced: "We don't need you. We need your children and grandchildren."
Quote:
Talib Ibrahim, a Syrian journalist from the Alawite community who fled to the Netherlands many years ago, summarizes the mood as follows: "Assad wants the Iranians as fighters, but increasingly they are interfering ideologically with domestic affairs. The Russians don't do that."
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  #614  
Old 24.10.2015, 01:34
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over


Thanks for this!


From where I sit the Syrian army is decimated, demotivated and possibly no longer paid since Assad lost the oil fields,


There are a number of "loyalist" militias but since they are mostly organized, paid and controlled by Iran it is not clear how much they plan to help Assad.


Russia will support Assad but what is left to support is not clear ?


If I were Assad I would go for full pardon from any war crimes, take a few billion and buy an estate in south of France?
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  #615  
Old 25.10.2015, 00:35
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

From BBC today "Russia will support moderate rebels"
I think I am losing the plot now!!/
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  #616  
Old 25.10.2015, 00:55
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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From BBC today "Russia will support moderate rebels"
I think I am losing the plot now!!/
This is why some of us are following the news but try not to express an opinion after every new article that adds a new direction.
The situation is extremely complicated.
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  #617  
Old 25.10.2015, 01:27
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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From BBC today "Russia will support moderate rebels"
I think I am losing the plot now!!/
They've been supporting them for a few days now. Here's some footage of Russia sending the FSA some care packages.



As usual, Russia is sending out these messages to appease the bulk of the public who don't read any more than the headlines. So far I am behind what Russia has been doing for the past few weeks which is nothing like what they say they have been doing. We'll see how it progresses.
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  #618  
Old 25.10.2015, 01:35
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Old 25.10.2015, 09:40
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Russian propaganda
Interesting to see Russian propaganda playing catch up. could be funny with a few shots of Samogon.

Currently the game is:

Russia
Iran
Hizzbullah
Syrian Army

Vs.

Odd collection of gangs of Arabs and western Muslims (who are also fighting against each other).

As things stand: No clear winner.

Clear losers: Syrian population.
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Old 25.10.2015, 09:49
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Interesting to see Russian propaganda playing catch up. could be funny with a few shots of Samogon.

Currently the game is:

Russia
Iran
Hizzbullah
Syrian Army

Vs.

Odd collection of gangs of Arabs and western Muslims (who are also fighting against each other).

As things stand: No clear winner.

Clear losers: Syrian population.
where is the "gang of western countries" (US, UK, Canada, France, Turkey, Denmark,...) in your equation?
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