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  #621  
Old 25.10.2015, 10:01
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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where is the "gang of western countries" (US, UK, Canada, France, Turkey, Denmark,...) in your equation?
There are western airstrikes against ISIS, true. But it's hard to say what are they really striking.

Are the Danish fighting in Syria? Do tell.
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  #622  
Old 25.10.2015, 10:56
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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This is why some of us are following the news but try not to express an opinion after every new article that adds a new direction.
The situation is extremely complicated.
Agreed but why post if you do not express an opinion; we can all read newspapers so no need to post links?
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  #623  
Old 25.10.2015, 11:40
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Danish Foreign minister Jensen announced deployment of mobile ground radars to help coalition fight ISIS in Syria, and the extension of F16 jets based in Kuwait to target ISIS in Syria.

Bashar announced that he is ready to hold presidential elections under certain conditions..... This is probably the first output from Russia's pressure on him. Putin wants to save the regime of alawites but not necessarily Bashar who is being challenged by his own community now.

Tony Blair apologises for the invasion of Iraq in 2003 based on "wrong information" and admits it led to the formation of ISIS. God knows why he is doing this now..what new trick or scheme is cooking in the back.
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  #624  
Old 25.10.2015, 12:18
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Bashar announced that he is ready to hold presidential elections under certain conditions..... This is probably the first output from Russia's pressure on him. Putin wants to save the regime of alawites but not necessarily Bashar who is being challenged by his own community now.
I remember when my housemates used to get their Syrian election ballots. There was only one box to check: one candidate, no yes or no option.

Assad is really not all that important. As long as the Ba'aths remain in power for the time being, that's all that matters.
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  #625  
Old 25.10.2015, 13:03
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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They've been supporting them for a few days now. Here's some footage of Russia sending the FSA some care packages.


As usual, Russia is sending out these messages to appease the bulk of the public who don't read any more than the headlines. So far I am behind what Russia has been doing for the past few weeks which is nothing like what they say they have been doing. We'll see how it progresses.

About "to appease the bulk of the public" Maybe but when was Russia ever interested in what the public thinks.


Could be that they are worried about their own Muslim population and want to try to defuse that situation.


Or Putin is starting to realise what a mess the country is in and is trying to find a way out?


Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov speaking yesterday on State television announced recent successes of the Syrian army supported by the Russian forces.
However he did not give any details of these successes like names of towns or territory captured.
It does give the impression that Russia was expecting to have successes to announce at this stage which might in turn give us a clue as to the Russian status, goals and next steps?
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  #626  
Old 25.10.2015, 14:06
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov speaking yesterday on State television announced recent successes of the Syrian army supported by the Russian forces.
However he did not give any details of these successes like names of towns or territory captured.
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the tempo of military action is not in line with the requirements of modern media, thus giving the inexperienced observer the impression that not much is changing on the ground. Such a view however is deeply flawed.
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Major events on the ground

Be that as it may, the major tactical developments on the ground can be summarized as follows:

-The government offensive in Aleppo, which is crucial to the outcome of the current campaign, is keeping its momentum. In south-western Aleppo countryside, government troops are still advancing towards Idlib highway, a strategic line of communication for the rebels. In the East of Aleppo, another operation should reach its goal in the days to come, when R+5 units will probably get to Kuweires airbase and cut off ISIS’ main resupply line (the highway from Mosul, through Raqqa, all the way to the Turkish border). ISIS tried to counter-attack, but was repelled so far, taking a number of casualties. They might try again though, given the high importance of this LOC.


-In the Latakia region, the SAA, NDF and Lebanese Hezbollah made ground around Salma. The hilltop of “Katf al-Ghader” was retaken by the Syrian army on Thursday and a multipronged attack on Salma is underway. This operation will be absolutely essential in the long awaited offensive onto Jish al-Shughur, a first step towards advancing into Idlib province.


-Further South, the rebels of “Ahrar al-Sham” launchted a counter-attack in Hama province, managing to retake two villages from the SAA. While their territorial gains are marginal, this operation could threaten the Salamiyya to Khanasser road, the only supply line of the R+5 into Aleppo. Therefore, any development in this area needs to be followed closely as well.


-Another attack onto the same supply line took place further North, in a coordinated “Jabhat al-Nusra” and ISIS offensive on Khanasser. There had already been rumours about both groups joining forces earlier this week, but this unsuccessful operation is definite proof that there is at least some kind of operational coordination between both Jihadi franchises on the ground. So much for the narrative about the “Jabhat al-Nusra” reconcilables …


-A last development has been observed around Deir ez-Zor, in Eastern Syria, an SAA outpost and airbase besieged by ISIS militants. In this area, the Russian airstrikes that took place recently point to a new tactical shift in the overall R+5 strategy.
source

^to be taken with a grain of salt
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  #627  
Old 25.10.2015, 14:38
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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source

^to be taken with a grain of salt
About "the tempo of military action is not in line with the requirements of modern media" You can say that again

For example "another operation should reach its goal in the days to come, when R+5 units will probably get to Kuweires airbase" The Syrian army launched a major offensive to get to Kuweires airbase on September 15th. By October 16th they were 7 Km from Kuweires airbase and now seem to be advancing an average 300m per day.
Putin was probably expecting something like E. Ukraine where the rebels were advancing 10Km per day in late August/early September.

Some newspapers claim there are hundreds of Syrian soldiers trapped in Kuweires airbase; maybe not true as your source does not mention this?
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  #628  
Old 25.10.2015, 15:03
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

A lot of these are training exercises for Russia. They are running operations and using systems that they haven't really deployed before. They are probably more focused on execution than actual results for the time being. They would want to make sure their command and control structure operates properly and smoothly, then debug the inefficiencies. So showing immediate results may not be their most urgent priority.

All the announcements and statements do not mean a thing. They are meant to hold certain things at bay so they can continue. Again, you have to watch what they do, not what they say.
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  #629  
Old 25.10.2015, 16:08
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Speaking of Ukraine, the one good thing about Putin's shift to Syria, is that the war in Ukraine suddenly came to a roaring halt:

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No Ukrainian troops died in combat so far this week, the Ukrainian military said, and international monitors report that fighting has fallen to the lowest levels in more than a year, according to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
Ukrainian government and separatist forces continue to maintain large forces close to each other, but the current calm “is quite unprecedented,” Michael Bociurkiw, an OSCE spokesman in Kiev, told USA TODAY. “Since the signing of first Minsk accord (cease-fire) in September of last year, I can’t recall a period like this.”
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...ists/72321252/


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“The special forces were pulled out of Ukraine and sent to Syria,“ a Russian Ministry of Defense official said, adding that they had been serving in territories in eastern Ukraine held by pro-Russia rebels. The official described them as “akin to a Delta Force,” the U.S. Army’s elite counterterrorism unit.
A senior Western official also said a contingent of elite Russian forces was on the ground in Syria from eastern Ukraine. A U.S. defense official said one of their roles is to provide coordination between Syrian troops and Russian aircraft conducting airstrikes in support of the regime’s ground offensive.
“The Russians are operating very closely with Syrian units,” the defense official said.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-s...ria-1445636834
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  #630  
Old 25.10.2015, 16:09
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

TB liar should have stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Saddam and GB on the gallows.
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  #631  
Old 25.10.2015, 19:01
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Danish Foreign minister Jensen announced deployment of mobile ground radars to help coalition fight ISIS in Syria, and the extension of F16 jets based in Kuwait to target ISIS in Syria.

Bashar announced that he is ready to hold presidential elections under certain conditions..... This is probably the first output from Russia's pressure on him. Putin wants to save the regime of alawites but not necessarily Bashar who is being challenged by his own community now.

Tony Blair apologises for the invasion of Iraq in 2003 based on "wrong information" and admits it led to the formation of ISIS. God knows why he is doing this now..what new trick or scheme is cooking in the back.
fair enough, Danish aircraft may have done some bombing rounds, to what effect is anyone's guess. Hardly a gang in any reasonable terms.
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  #632  
Old 27.10.2015, 15:42
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

fair analysis this?
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/23/op...ntlAudDev&_r=0
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  #633  
Old 27.10.2015, 17:05
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over


I hope so but the situation is very complicated and everybody is biased or simply tells lies.


Only time will tell if Putin's intervention in Syria was a bold strategic move or simply jumping into a mess to make it into a bigger mess.
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  #634  
Old 27.10.2015, 17:46
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over


Fair analysis but I don't like the suggestion of the USA pushing back against Russia in Syria:

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In Syria, the United States cannot allow Russia to eliminate all actors except Mr. Assad and the Islamic State. We must provide more arms and support to other rebel groups. We should warn Mr. Putin that further attacks against non-Islamic State rebels will compel us to protect them, either by enforcing a no-fly zone or by arming them with antiaircraft weapons.
This suggestion will only lead to more suffering of the Syrian people. The USA needs to either work with Russia at ending the civil war or step back completely and let Russia try to finish the job. Sending more arms to various rebel groups is only going to prolong the destruction of the country. If the USA wanted to get serious about fighting ISIS and leave Russia to dealing with the civil war, that could be a good solution.

The anti-Assad rebels still in Syria are not capable of taking over the reins and leading the country in the future. A toned-down Ba'ath government, actually implementing the reforms promised many years ago, would be a good start.
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  #635  
Old 27.10.2015, 18:16
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

The Kurds have been the only reliable group worth supporting. They've done an excellent job against ISIS, and because some of those young women fighters are so pretty, they deserve to be supported. I think that is one group that worth supporting.
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  #636  
Old 27.10.2015, 20:08
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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A toned-down Ba'ath government, actually implementing the reforms promised many years ago, would be a good start.
It would make a good start. Problem is it's not going to happen. A Ba'ath government is exactly that. A tyranny, incapable of change. The Rebels are not much better.
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  #637  
Old 27.10.2015, 20:13
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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The Kurds have been the only reliable group worth supporting. They've done an excellent job against ISIS, and because some of those young women fighters are so pretty, they deserve to be supported. I think that is one group that worth supporting.

Something à la "free Tibet" fad?
Kurds are bloody murders themselves, they are "asking Syrians to leave" on the conquered territories. It just doesn't get the same publicity as ISIS (which is better at scary propaganda).
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  #638  
Old 27.10.2015, 22:42
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Fair analysis but I don't like the suggestion of the USA pushing back against Russia in Syria:

This suggestion will only lead to more suffering of the Syrian people. The USA needs to either work with Russia at ending the civil war or step back completely and let Russia try to finish the job.
It depends on the point of view. Looking at it from the US side, they spent the last few years identifying, training, and supporting "moderate rebels" (ie: non-ISIS, anti-Assad). And now when that work started to pay off and they started beating Assad and forcing him to either negotiate or step down...then suddenly Russia came riding into town with guns blazing to help Assad. From this POV, Putin just prolonged the war by backing the other side, right?

But you're right, in the current situation, if it turns into a proxy war between the US and Russia, it can go on endlessly. Which is probably why the US didn't support Ukraine militarily, as they didn't want it to escalate and go on endlessly. But on the flip side of that, if Putin continues to deploy his military force and meets with no resistance, he'll be emboldened to continue....
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  #639  
Old 28.10.2015, 00:16
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

US boots on the ground. Looks like the US is countering Russia's bombing runs with an agile approach:
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/...-syria-n452131

Air strikes? Been there, done that.

These special ops raids are more apropos to the threat in many ways. Looks like the US is training local special ops teams.

Putin looked like a genius for a moment because Obama simply looked bad. Perhaps the Pentagon had a "think" about it and is responding back with version 2.0.
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  #640  
Old 28.10.2015, 00:31
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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US boots on the ground. Looks like the US is countering Russia's bombing runs with an agile approach:
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/...-syria-n452131

Air strikes? Been there, done that.

These special ops raids are more apropos to the threat in many ways. Looks like the US is training local special ops teams.

Putin looked like a genius for a moment because Obama simply looked bad. Perhaps the Pentagon had a "think" about it and is responding back with version 2.0.
You are still confusing these two completely different wars. Russia currently is not fighting ISIS, despite what they are saying.

The US approach sounds sensible.
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