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  #641  
Old 27.10.2015, 23:40
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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You are still confusing these two completely different wars. Russia currently is not fighting ISIS, despite what they are saying.

The US approach sounds sensible.
I read that clearly when Russia began - Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Forget for a minute what they say, and consider what they do:
-ISIS mainly fights Syrian Rebels
-ISIS rarely fights Syrian Army
-Coalition supports Syrian Rebels
-Coalition bombs ISIS
-Syrian Army mainly fights Syrian Rebels
.Russia bombs Syrian Rebels

Theses dots point to allegations that Assad and ISIS have an implicit strategy to go after the Syrian Rebels first. So while the coalition is bombing ISIS, Russia is bombing the Syrian rebels.

I think you'd have to closely observe what Russia does to understand its motives, not what they say.

Now there is a one-up-man-ship taking place between Putin and Obama.
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  #642  
Old 27.10.2015, 23:46
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Now there is a one-up-man-ship taking place between Putin and Obama.
If they play their cards right, they can both look good. As of tonight, the US is proposing a complementary role to Russia in Syria: Putin stops the civil war, Obama gets the reins on ISIS.
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  #643  
Old 28.10.2015, 08:10
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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If they play their cards right, they can both look good. As of tonight, the US is proposing a complementary role to Russia in Syria: Putin stops the civil war, Obama gets the reins on ISIS.
Obama and Putin working together to bring peace to the Middle East and stop terrorism?

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  #644  
Old 28.10.2015, 11:44
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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The Kurds have been the only reliable group worth supporting. They've done an excellent job against ISIS, and because some of those young women fighters are so pretty, they deserve to be supported. I think that is one group that worth supporting.
I agree (if the part about the pretty women that deserve to be support because they are pretty is a joke).
The Kurds are the one group whose objectives are fair, noble and respectable, and whose track record so far is admirable.
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  #645  
Old 28.10.2015, 17:32
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

ISIS are claiming to have seized and consolidated control from the regime a key road (the Khanasser Highway) linking Hama to Aleppo — the last major supply route to funnel pro-government troops and supplies to the Government front lines around Aleppo.

Sounds unlikely but serious if it is true?
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  #646  
Old 03.11.2015, 20:51
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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ISIS are claiming to have seized and consolidated control from the regime a key road (the Khanasser Highway) linking Hama to Aleppo — the last major supply route to funnel pro-government troops and supplies to the Government front lines around Aleppo.

Sounds unlikely but serious if it is true?
Seems the combined Russian, Syrian army, Iranian and Hezebollah forces have not yet won back the Khanasser Highway; they claim to be close to victory
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  #647  
Old 06.11.2015, 01:55
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Despite the incredible number of missions flown by the Russians there has not been much in the way of territory gains. I am really impressed by the number of Russian missions flown; it is no easy task to turn war planes around quickly and to keep them airworthy.


I assume they have a similar problem to the US who have spent years trying to turn the Iraq army into an effective fighting force; cannot expect Russia to improve the Syrian army in weeks.


If the Sinai crash was really caused by an ISIS bomb then it might force Russia to actually start attacking ISIS which would conflict with what appears to be their operational goals to keep Assad in place.
Probably Putin would react by increasing the Russian forces in Syria; currently rumoured to be around 4,000?


The Syrian army is claiming to have regained control of the Khanasser Highway which was held by ISIS for nearly 2 weeks. This is key as the highway is the only route to deliver Govt. supplies to Aleppo. Apparently the highway is heavily mined so not yet back in use.


As many people forecast Russia looks like being drawn into a long term Syrian mess with no speedy resolution.

Last edited by marton; 06.11.2015 at 02:05. Reason: the Khanasser Highway
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  #648  
Old 06.11.2015, 08:22
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

The hardest thing to protect is a road. It takes many soldiers to protect it and only one mine to block it for a long time (as hizballah knows well, but now they are on the defending side). The tragic war in Syria is far from over.
A big problem is that no side dare surrender, as surrender means massacre of the losing side.
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  #649  
Old 06.11.2015, 09:06
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Russia deploys anti-aircraft missiles in Syria, which is curious, because ISIS has no aircraft. Hmmm.....

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Russia has deployed anti-aircraft missiles in Syria to protect itself from air strikes, the head of Russia's air force, Viktor Bondarev, told the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper Thursday.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/541926.html
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  #650  
Old 09.11.2015, 15:52
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

In my mind the question is whether you think there can be a (relatively) peaceful solution without Assad.

If not, then the Assad regime is quite probably the lesser of two evils. But the US can't have that because he doesn't play their tune so he has to go, even though under international law interfering in a foreign country is legal under either of two preconditions only: with a UN mandate (which AFAIK requires a UN Security Council resolution, which hasn't been issued) or upon request of the legal government, i.e. the Assad regime.

With Assad you keep having a dictator, perhaps with a relatively stable and functioning (core) state. Probably with continued heavy human rights violations, torture and murder by government, albeit in a "contained" amount in the sense that "only" hundreds or a few thousands will suffer or get killed. This is Russia's path, it's within the boundaries of international law.

Without Assad you'll probably get something similar to Afghanistan (where UN forces have failed for fifteen years now to gain control, and which produces and exports more opium and heroine than ever) or Iraq, a largely dysfuntional state at least in rural ares with warlords commonplace or perhaps something similar to a radical islamic state.

Interestingly enough Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, ex head of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, is on record in an interview with Al Jazeera saying it was a willful decision by the US to let IS rise to its current size. The rise didn't just happen because it was overlooked, it was willfully allowed to happen. Just why does that remind me of the Taliban.

Do you trust the will and ability of US foreign policy to form and have a relatively stable, peaceful and somewhat just Middle East?

I for one don't, there are simply too many fails.
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  #651  
Old 19.11.2015, 12:35
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote "China has confirmed the murder of a Chinese hostage by Islamic State in Syria and promised to “bring to justice” those responsible."

Together with the bombing of the Russian plane, ISIS seem determined to incite ever stronger enemies.
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  #652  
Old 24.11.2015, 09:48
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Looks like the Turkish air force have downed a Russian fighter over Syria. Time to fetch the popcorn.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34907983
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  #653  
Old 24.11.2015, 09:52
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Ooops, pass me the brown trousers.


I expect Erdogan is hoping the Russians will retaliate and then he can call in NATO to "defend" him?


Russian MOD say it was an SU24 and in Syrian airspace.


Apparently the main navigation instrument in a SU24 is usually an auto GPS taped to the windscreen!!
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  #654  
Old 24.11.2015, 10:03
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Just imagine if this results in Vlad throwing his weight behind the Kurds...
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  #655  
Old 24.11.2015, 10:09
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Looks like the Turkish air force have downed a Russian fighter over Syria. Time to fetch the popcorn.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34907983


Russian media say the Su was fling at 6,000m but believe it was shot down from the ground. In any case 6,000m is well above the range of shoulder fired missiles, so it was either a more sophisticated ground system (that rebels/militants normally don't have), or else F-16's as the Turks say.

In any case, pretty ballsy of the Turks. Wonder what Putin's next move will be? Escalate? Or make up some story and quietly back down?
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  #656  
Old 24.11.2015, 10:42
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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In any case, pretty ballsy of the Turks. Wonder what Putin's next move will be? Escalate? Or make up some story and quietly back down?
Interesting indeed, considering Turkey is a NATO member.

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Article Five of the NATO treaty states that if an armed attack occurs against one of the member states, it should be considered an attack against all members, and other members shall assist the attacked member, with armed forces if necessary
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  #657  
Old 24.11.2015, 10:45
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Exactly what ISIS wanted to get.

Those hotlines must be ringing off the hook. I would think this would get Obama out of bed.
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  #658  
Old 24.11.2015, 11:43
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Russian media say the Su was fling at 6,000m but believe it was shot down from the ground. In any case 6,000m is well above the range of shoulder fired missiles, so it was either a more sophisticated ground system (that rebels/militants normally don't have), or else F-16's as the Turks say.

In any case, pretty ballsy of the Turks. Wonder what Putin's next move will be? Escalate? Or make up some story and quietly back down?

Turkey has these more sophisticated ground systems so could also be one of those?
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  #659  
Old 24.11.2015, 13:20
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Turkey has these more sophisticated ground systems so could also be one of those?
I think Turkey admitted to shooting it down, so how they did it doesn't really matter much.

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Interesting indeed, considering Turkey is a NATO member.
Yes, it could potentially spiral into WW3 if cooler heads don't prevail.

I heard one of the pilots ejected and was captured. But below it sounds like a pilot was killed (maybe it was the other pilot? Hopefully they didn't kill a captured pilot :/ ) Anyway, the fact that there was a fatality raises it further than if it was just hardware destroyed.



Quote:
Soon after the shoot-down, footage of the crash surfaced on social media. One Twitter user, who describes himself as a journalist in the Middle East, posted a video purportedly showing the plane plunging as a person on the ground chants "Allahu Akbar." Several users also tweeted footage claiming to show a crowd chanting that phrase over the mutilated corpse of a pilot.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/worl...icle-1.2444932
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  #660  
Old 24.11.2015, 15:09
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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article five of the nato treaty states that if an armed attack occurs against the territorial integrity in Europe or North America of one of the member states, it should be considered an attack against all members, and other members shall assist the attacked member, with armed forces if necessary
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