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  #681  
Old 21.12.2015, 21:21
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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I don't understand how Syria can lose ground to ISIS when they have much more soldiers, and a lot more hardware. Unless they strategically entrench their positions, and allow ISIS have desolate areas. I suspect it is intentional.

Syria's military strength, according to Global Firepower:
http://www.globalfirepower.com/count...untry_id=syria

So if Syria doesn't have true resolve to defeat ISIS, why should anyone else? Something does not makes sense here. It seems contrived to draw in foreigners.


About "I don't understand how Syria can lose ground to ISIS when they have much more soldiers" Because the Syrian army is cr*p!


Read up on the start of the Jom Kippur war when the Syrians with 1,400 tanks attacked Israeli positions in the Golan Heights who only had 170 tanks and the Syrians failed to win.
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  #682  
Old 21.12.2015, 21:53
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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I don't understand how Syria can lose ground to ISIS when they have much more soldiers, and a lot more hardware. Unless they strategically entrench their positions, and allow ISIS have desolate areas. I suspect it is intentional.

Syria's military strength, according to Global Firepower:
http://www.globalfirepower.com/count...untry_id=syria

So if Syria doesn't have true resolve to defeat ISIS, why should anyone else? Something does not makes sense here. It seems contrived to draw in foreigners.
Arab armies are simply not effective - the Egyptian army can't defeat the Islamists in Sinai, The Iraqi army can barely defend well protected positions, The Iranians (not arabs) are not doing well in Syria, in Yemen, Libya the situation is very similar - regular armies losing to armed gangs.
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  #683  
Old 21.12.2015, 22:39
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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I don't understand how Syria can lose ground to ISIS when they have much more soldiers, and a lot more hardware. Unless they strategically entrench their positions, and allow ISIS have desolate areas. I suspect it is intentional.

Syria's military strength, according to Global Firepower:
http://www.globalfirepower.com/count...untry_id=syria

So if Syria doesn't have true resolve to defeat ISIS, why should anyone else? Something does not makes sense here. It seems contrived to draw in foreigners.
Again, Syria (Assad) is not all that concerned with ISIS at the moment. They have much bigger concerns in regaining the territory between Hama and Aleppo.

I suspect the recent talk of Russia supporting the Free Syrian Army makes sense with the latest UN roadmap. Of the important opposition groups, the FSA is the most secular and would most likely be helpful in restoring a secular government in Syria.

The following is an excerpt from an interesting article:

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Moscow seems to have realised that with Mr. Assad at the helm, after all the bloodshed the war has triggered, it is practically impossible to reach sustainable peace in Syria. But it does not just abandon Mr. Assad either — which is not, historically, a Russian approach towards its allies. Moscow wants a structural transition that would not only offer a face-saving exit to Mr. Assad but also leave the Syrian state intact. That is exactly what the UN resolution is calling for. For example, look at how the most contentious issue — the future of Mr. Assad — has been addressed in the resolution. There is not a single reference to Mr. Assad in the 1,656-word text. It does not call for his resignation, nor does it say whether he is eligible to contest polls. This is closer to the Russian position that it is up to the Syrians to decide Mr. Assad’s fate. But the resolution categorically states that “all Syrians, including members of the diaspora” — the refugees and the displaced — should be eligible to vote in the elections which will be administered by the UN. The American calculation is that if the diaspora votes, that would lower Mr. Assad’s odds of winning.
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  #684  
Old 21.12.2015, 22:53
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Again, Syria (Assad) is not all that concerned with ISIS at the moment. They have much bigger concerns in regaining the territory between Hama and Aleppo.

I suspect the recent talk of Russia supporting the Free Syrian Army makes sense with the latest UN roadmap. Of the important opposition groups, the FSA is the most secular and would most likely be helpful in restoring a secular government in Syria.

The following is an excerpt from an interesting article:

About "but also leave the Syrian state intact". Too late! I believe there will be the highly populated part that remains as Syria in the future, a Kurdish zone along the border with Turkey and a desolate desert part with oil that will be fought over by roving militias for years to come (like Libya)
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  #685  
Old 21.12.2015, 22:55
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Again, Syria (Assad) is not all that concerned with ISIS at the moment.
That strikes me as a ridiculous statement.
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  #686  
Old 21.12.2015, 23:53
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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That strikes me as a ridiculous statement.
Paris, Sinai, San Bernardino, etc.,... don't really affect Assad that much. ISIS makes a few incursions into western Syria now and again but they don't really make any significant headways.

Take a look at the following map if you are interested. Then take a look at google maps of the same region in satellite view.

Cities and towns during the Syrian Civil War
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  #687  
Old 22.12.2015, 10:32
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

You're not concerned about a force that occupies and controls more than half your country and some major income generators? Get real.

For once I'm with Phos.

Edit:
ISIL reportedly lost 14% of their territory according to a tagesanzeiger article (german). Plus the offensive by Iraq's army on Ramadi may weaken them further.

Last edited by Urs Max; 22.12.2015 at 12:43.
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  #688  
Old 22.12.2015, 12:43
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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You're not concerned about a force that occupies and controls more than half your country and some major income generators? Get real.

For once I'm with Phos.
Assad biggest worry are the non Assad forces - they have more international legitimacy than ISIS and long term pose an alternative to his dynasty.

In fact, Assad released many Islamists from his jails to discredit his opposition (newweek and others reported it too).
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  #689  
Old 22.12.2015, 15:01
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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You're not concerned about a force that occupies and controls more than half your country and some major income generators? Get real.
50%? More like 70% I would say. But, only about 10% of the countries population. No, I wouldn't be too concerned.

Now get back to reading your 20minuten.
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  #690  
Old 23.12.2015, 15:21
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Assad biggest worry are the non Assad forces - they have more international legitimacy than ISIS and long term pose an alternative to his dynasty.

In fact, Assad released many Islamists from his jails to discredit his opposition (newweek and others reported it too).
Without the oil wells, which are all in ISIS hands, Assad must have huge problems financing everything as the syrian economy must be in freefall. While he certainly doesn't like FSA et al. this is just one of many problems he has now.

Lack of legitimacy doesn't keep ISIS from staying, nor does lack of acceptance by the west keep Russia from supporting Assad. As long as Russia and Iran support him he'll stay until some kind of agreement is reached.

Russia among other things wants to keep a base in the Mediterranean, I think it's the last one it's got. Apparently he thinks he's firmly in the saddle as shown by the Tagesanzeiger who quotes him sarcastically commenting "I was already packing my bags. I had to leave, but now I may stay" on the change of mind of european politicians who now say it's thinkable to leave him in power for a few years if a peaceful solution is reached.
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  #691  
Old 29.12.2015, 21:19
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Russia is keeping up the pressure on Turkey

Example 1, an article in the RT newspaper here claiming to have evidence that Turkey supports ISIS and naming Erdogan's son Bilal as the major buyer of ISIS oil.

Example 2, A decree signed by Putin announces sanction that will take effect from Jan. 1, 2016. Source
It includes a ban on recruitment of Turkish nationals by Russian employers, a food import ban on certain categories of products as well as a ban on charter flights in both directions.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said Monday that Moscow will impose further sanctions on Turkey. The prime minister has already announced them at government meetings.
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  #692  
Old 29.12.2015, 21:30
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Russia is keeping up the pressure on Turkey

Example 1, an article in the RT newspaper here claiming to have evidence that Turkey supports ISIS and naming Erdogan's son Bilal as the major buyer of ISIS oil.

Example 2, A decree signed by Putin announces sanction that will take effect from Jan. 1, 2016. Source
It includes a ban on recruitment of Turkish nationals by Russian employers, a food import ban on certain categories of products as well as a ban on charter flights in both directions.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said Monday that Moscow will impose further sanctions on Turkey. The prime minister has already announced them at government meetings.
RT is complete trash
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  #693  
Old 29.12.2015, 21:53
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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RT is complete trash
Actually it is extremely useful at providing information on Russian Government propaganda; not an independent news source of course.
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  #694  
Old 29.12.2015, 22:38
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Actually it is extremely useful at providing information on Russian Government propaganda; not an independent news source of course.
if you take as such than yes - that is, if you can read more than an article without wanting to claw your skin off....
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  #695  
Old 31.12.2015, 17:08
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

The Islamic State group has claimed responsibility for a shooting in Russia's volatile North Caucasus region of Dagestan that killed one and injured 11, SITE Intelligence Group said Thursday. The attack occurred Tuesday night near the citadel of Derbent.
Many newspaper reports so no source attribution.

Russia is starting to sound like the US!
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  #696  
Old 31.12.2015, 22:08
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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The Islamic State group has claimed responsibility for a shooting in Russia's volatile North Caucasus region of Dagestan that killed one and injured 11, SITE Intelligence Group said Thursday. The attack occurred Tuesday night near the citadel of Derbent.
Many newspaper reports so no source attribution.

Russia is starting to sound like the US!
If anything it's the other way round. Russia has 12-20% muslim population (no official figures so the guesses vary wildly depending on who you ask), the Tatars which are 2nd largest peoples are mostly muslim, about half a dozen regional units (republic typically) have a muslim majority, all of them in the northern Kaukasus or Central Asia region.

Remember the two cechnian wars, that was very much a religious conflict. Same goes for the wars and conflicts during the last 25 years that involved Georgia, which mostly amounted to the christian dominated Georgia fighting some non-christian opponent(s) (usually muslim, but also against Russia hence non-christian).
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Old 06.01.2016, 22:59
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

ISIS has lost an estimated 40 percent of the territory it once held in Iraq and 20 percent in Syria, the U.S.-led coalition fighting the group said Tuesday.
Taking together Iraq and Syria .. they lost 30 percent of the territory they once held," he said.
Counter-offensives by Iraqi and Kurdish armed forces, supported by the U.S.-led coalition, and by Iran-backed Shiite militias have forced ISIS out of several cities — including Tikrit, north of Baghdad, and Ramadi, to the west last month.

Source

The US coalition has been more successful than I thought!
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  #698  
Old 06.01.2016, 23:22
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Territory is not so important in this war. ISIS doesn't need much territory to create a power-point presentation, murder someone and post it on youtube.
Sure, the oil and extraction money is nice to have, but there are other ways for ISIS to make money.

The Vietcong and NVA lost most territory in South Vietnam by 1969...
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  #699  
Old 06.01.2016, 23:25
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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ISIS has lost an estimated 40 percent of the territory it once held in Iraq and 20 percent in Syria, the U.S.-led coalition fighting the group said Tuesday.
Taking together Iraq and Syria .. they lost 30 percent of the territory they once held," he said.
Counter-offensives by Iraqi and Kurdish armed forces, supported by the U.S.-led coalition, and by Iran-backed Shiite militias have forced ISIS out of several cities — including Tikrit, north of Baghdad, and Ramadi, to the west last month.

Source

The US coalition has been more successful than I thought!

About this territory, it's mostly desert sand and rocks. I don't think traditional military assessments really apply to such groups. I think this battlefield is really in the minds and hearts of people. It really should be assessed through Yahoo's Jerry Wang's Mindshare analogy. The US can take all that territory in a day with ground troops, if that is really what they were after.
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Old 06.01.2016, 23:47
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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About this territory, it's mostly desert sand and rocks. I don't think traditional military assessments really apply to such groups. I think this battlefield is really in the minds and hearts of people. It really should be assessed through Yahoo's Jerry Wang's Mindshare analogy. The US can take all that territory in a day with ground troops, if that is really what they were after.
About this territory, it's mostly desert sand and rocks.

You believe Tikrit, north of Baghdad, and Ramadi are mostly sand and rocks?
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