Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Off-Topic > Off-Topic > International affairs/politics
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #721  
Old 29.01.2016, 09:21
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Ostschweiz
Posts: 6,180
Groaned at 208 Times in 178 Posts
Thanked 7,761 Times in 4,052 Posts
Urs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
Originally Posted by marton View Post
Yes they are starting to make progress.

Probably more due to US pressure on the allies ahead of the peace talks to stop supplying the rebels with anti tank weapons than improved Russian bombing.

Looks like Assad will stay in place and the rebels are doomed if the US pulls support.
Will the Kurds be able to keep their territory?
Will there be a solution to the ISIS problem? Who knows?
I highly doubt US actions have any bearing on reactions by the Assad regime at all. After all they want Assad out, that removes any incentive for him to play along.

It's the same today as a couple years ago with the chemical weapons: There's no solution without Russia. Russia lacks the motivation to remove Assad as it will keep its last (not counting the base on Cyprus) remaining acces point to the Mediterranean Sea (and keep NATO from strenthening its access to the southern Kaukasus) at least as long as he's in power, it's a mutually beneficial relation.

Perhaps the same applies to IS: There may be no solution without Russia. After all IS didn't start to lose ground until Russia got seriously active, ground loss by IS seems to be on an accelerating trajectory since, and IS apparently has problems financing thier operations (reportedly they halved their fighers' pay a couple weeks ago).
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank Urs Max for this useful post:
  #722  
Old 29.01.2016, 09:46
esto's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: CHE
Posts: 1,345
Groaned at 59 Times in 56 Posts
Thanked 3,182 Times in 1,380 Posts
esto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
Originally Posted by marton View Post
Syria peace talks start tomorrow, Friday, in Geneva.
Only problem is the opposition (rebels, freedom fighters, terrorists et al) will not attend.
Theatre of the absurd or what?
Absolutely. And before the meeting the UN made a public address to the people of Syria. Who weren't there. And probably have better things to do than log in to the UN website and read their blah-blah-blah. If they even have internet access. Or a computer.

Quote:
Originally Posted by UN
We’ve heard your voices, we heard when you have been telling us so many times wherever we met you, you Syrian people, you women, men and children of Syria, saying: Enough, ‘khalas, kefaya,’ enough killing, murdering, torturing, prisons
The people of Syria must be so relieved to know that there is a guy in a suit in Geneva who sympathizes with them
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank esto for this useful post:
  #723  
Old 29.01.2016, 11:03
Pashosh's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Baden
Posts: 432
Groaned at 172 Times in 127 Posts
Thanked 1,627 Times in 880 Posts
Pashosh is considered knowledgeablePashosh is considered knowledgeablePashosh is considered knowledgeable
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

The Arab world doesn't compromise. The winner takes it all, the loser is killed, jailed or exiled. Perhaps Syria will be so devastated by the civil war that both sides will agree on on a ceasefire (not likely, imho). The Russians saved Assad for the time being, but they can't defeat the Rebels /ISIS (see Chechnia). A possible exit strategy for Russia is to replace Assad with another pro Russian.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank Pashosh for this useful post:
  #724  
Old 29.01.2016, 11:25
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 9,017
Groaned at 300 Times in 259 Posts
Thanked 12,734 Times in 7,009 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pashosh View Post
The Arab world doesn't compromise. The winner takes it all, the loser is killed, jailed or exiled. Perhaps Syria will be so devastated by the civil war that both sides will agree on on a ceasefire (not likely, imho). The Russians saved Assad for the time being, but they can't defeat the Rebels /ISIS (see Chechnia). A possible exit strategy for Russia is to replace Assad with another pro Russian.

About "both sides will agree on on a ceasefire" Well only one side is attending the "peace talks" so it should be easy for them to agree?
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #725  
Old 29.01.2016, 11:28
esto's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: CHE
Posts: 1,345
Groaned at 59 Times in 56 Posts
Thanked 3,182 Times in 1,380 Posts
esto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pashosh View Post
A possible exit strategy for Russia is to replace Assad with another pro Russian.
There were several reports that Russia recently asked Assad to go, but no dice. Doesn't appear to be any valid Plan B. So looks like no end in sight for a while...

Quote:
Just weeks before his death on January 3, Colonel-General Igor Sergun, director of Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency, was sent to Damascus on a delicate mission.

The general, who is believed to have cut his teeth as a Soviet operative in Syria, bore a message from Vladimir Putin for President Bashar al-Assad: the Kremlin, the Syrian dictator’s most powerful international protector, believed it was time for him to step aside.

Mr Assad angrily refused.

Two senior western intelligence officials have given the Financial Times details of Sergun’s mission. The Russian foreign ministry referred a request for comment to the defence ministry, which said it was unable to comment.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/735b4...#axzz3ycyMgYU2
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank esto for this useful post:
  #726  
Old 29.01.2016, 13:52
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Ostschweiz
Posts: 6,180
Groaned at 208 Times in 178 Posts
Thanked 7,761 Times in 4,052 Posts
Urs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
Originally Posted by esto View Post
There were several reports that Russia recently asked Assad to go, but no dice. Doesn't appear to be any valid Plan B. So looks like no end in sight for a while...
Really? Got some links?

What I do rememer getting reported is that Putin has no problems with Assad getting replaced as long as it happens democratically, i.e. by vote. Now, there's the obvious problem of election being free or not. But either way that's contradicting what you say.
Reply With Quote
  #727  
Old 29.01.2016, 14:21
esto's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: CHE
Posts: 1,345
Groaned at 59 Times in 56 Posts
Thanked 3,182 Times in 1,380 Posts
esto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
Originally Posted by Urs Max View Post
Really? Got some links?
Yes, in the post above there is a link, you don't see it?

Here's some more, just in case:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...eks-later.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a6829531.html

http://www.vox.com/2016/1/22/1081539...ia-syria-assad
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank esto for this useful post:
  #728  
Old 29.01.2016, 14:40
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Ostschweiz
Posts: 6,180
Groaned at 208 Times in 178 Posts
Thanked 7,761 Times in 4,052 Posts
Urs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

I see the link but access to the article is blocked to non-subscribers (perhaps 3 articles a month, not sure). Truth be told though, I didn't try it before because it's after the 2nd quote, not accompanying the remark.

Thanks for the new links, I hadn't seen such articles, perhaps because none appeared in the local news. However they're only speculation. Perhaps plausible, not sure, but speculation nonetheless.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Urs Max for this useful post:
  #729  
Old 29.01.2016, 14:52
esto's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: CHE
Posts: 1,345
Groaned at 59 Times in 56 Posts
Thanked 3,182 Times in 1,380 Posts
esto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond reputeesto has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

The VOX article laid out some very good reasons why Russia would be better off if Assad left

Quote:
Russia is not involved in Syria out of some abstract commitment to its buddy Bashar, but rather to protect its interests: a Syrian government that is pro-Moscow and that will allow Russia to keep its last remaining military bases outside of the former Soviet sphere. Russia has long-held links to the Syrian military establishment as well.

Moscow can theoretically preserve all of this even if Assad goes. If anything, Russia might be better served by installing a new leader who would be indebted to Moscow and thus more pliant than Assad.

Perhaps driving all this was Russia's fear that Assad's regime, four years into the civil war and having lost control of most of Syria, was on the verge of a catastrophic implosion. That would have left Russia with nothing, it's the fear that led Putin to intervene in the first, and that same fear would seem to make it within Russia's interests to replace Assad with a new leader who could bring a peace deal.
Reply With Quote
  #730  
Old 29.01.2016, 16:44
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Ostschweiz
Posts: 6,180
Groaned at 208 Times in 178 Posts
Thanked 7,761 Times in 4,052 Posts
Urs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond reputeUrs Max has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

On the other hand any replacement would be a risk as no one knows how he'll act afterwards. Assad's re/actions OTOH can be extrapolated with a fair amount of certainty.
Reply With Quote
  #731  
Old 30.01.2016, 11:50
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 9,017
Groaned at 300 Times in 259 Posts
Thanked 12,734 Times in 7,009 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

© Tagesanzeiger
Attached Thumbnails
syria-ain-t-over-till-s-over-peace.jpg  
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #732  
Old 30.01.2016, 17:56
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 9,017
Groaned at 300 Times in 259 Posts
Thanked 12,734 Times in 7,009 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Latest news, Syrian opposition members flying to Geneva so hopefully there will be some real progress in the peace talks
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mi...-idUSKCN0V808D
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #733  
Old 31.01.2016, 14:40
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 9,017
Groaned at 300 Times in 259 Posts
Thanked 12,734 Times in 7,009 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

All sides are now trying to score points during the peace conference; never ending horror story.

"At least 30 people have been killed and scores wounded when two suicide bombers blew themselves up in the Sayeda Zeinab district of Damascus, where Syria’s holiest Shia shrine is located, the interior ministry said."

Source here.
Reply With Quote
  #734  
Old 01.02.2016, 03:52
Wollishofener's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Glattbrugg
Posts: 19,026
Groaned at 333 Times in 258 Posts
Thanked 11,716 Times in 6,858 Posts
Wollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond reputeWollishofener has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
Originally Posted by Urs Max View Post
I highly doubt US actions have any bearing on reactions by the Assad regime at all. After all they want Assad out, that removes any incentive for him to play along.

It's the same today as a couple years ago with the chemical weapons: There's no solution without Russia. Russia lacks the motivation to remove Assad as it will keep its last (not counting the base on Cyprus) remaining acces point to the Mediterranean Sea (and keep NATO from strenthening its access to the southern Kaukasus) at least as long as he's in power, it's a mutually beneficial relation.

Perhaps the same applies to IS: There may be no solution without Russia. After all IS didn't start to lose ground until Russia got seriously active, ground loss by IS seems to be on an accelerating trajectory since, and IS apparently has problems financing thier operations (reportedly they halved their fighers' pay a couple weeks ago).

the West should NOT even try to remove the Assad Regime but try tp convince the Assad-folks of mor flexibitliy. President Putin is the only Western leader with a real view of realities at present


Dr med Bashar al -Assad is
open minded
secularist
open to Reforms
oecumeni
toleranr
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Wollishofener for this useful post:
  #735  
Old 01.02.2016, 07:01
latisha's Avatar
Newbie
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 2
Groaned at 0 Times in 0 Posts
Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post
latisha has no particular reputation at present
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
Originally Posted by marton View Post
Latest news, Syrian opposition members flying to Geneva so hopefully there will be some real progress in the peace talks
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mi...-idUSKCN0V808D


I hope will be genuine solution in their peace talk in Geneva. There are dozens of Syrians were killed because of bombing while peace talk is happening in Geneva.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank latisha for this useful post:
  #736  
Old 04.02.2016, 01:27
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 9,017
Groaned at 300 Times in 259 Posts
Thanked 12,734 Times in 7,009 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Peace talks moved to the end of this month; sigh!
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #737  
Old 04.02.2016, 23:17
jacek's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Aargau
Posts: 7,951
Groaned at 105 Times in 80 Posts
Thanked 5,438 Times in 3,057 Posts
jacek has a reputation beyond reputejacek has a reputation beyond reputejacek has a reputation beyond reputejacek has a reputation beyond reputejacek has a reputation beyond reputejacek has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
Originally Posted by marton View Post
Peace talks moved to the end of this month; sigh!
Syria civil war: Up to 70,000 refugees head to Turkey, says PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35495157
Reply With Quote
  #738  
Old 04.02.2016, 23:24
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 9,017
Groaned at 300 Times in 259 Posts
Thanked 12,734 Times in 7,009 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Saudi Arabia has offered for the first time to send ground troops to Syria to fight Islamic State, its defence ministry said today.

Source
Reply With Quote
  #739  
Old 05.02.2016, 00:16
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Near Luzern
Posts: 1,434
Groaned at 86 Times in 50 Posts
Thanked 1,730 Times in 781 Posts
Patxi has a reputation beyond reputePatxi has a reputation beyond reputePatxi has a reputation beyond reputePatxi has a reputation beyond reputePatxi has a reputation beyond reputePatxi has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
Originally Posted by marton View Post
Saudi Arabia has offered for the first time to send ground troops to Syria to fight Islamic State, its defence ministry said today.

Source
Oh the irony.....
Didn't Russia enter this fray under the pretense of targeting ISIS? This seems like a risky and desperate move by the Saudis to counter Iran. The only upside I see is a more rapid implosion of the Saudi Kingdom.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Patxi for this useful post:
  #740  
Old 05.02.2016, 00:17
Linnéa UZH's Avatar
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Hünenberg/Tannay/Kenilworth IL
Posts: 150
Groaned at 30 Times in 18 Posts
Thanked 195 Times in 105 Posts
Linnéa UZH has earned the respect of manyLinnéa UZH has earned the respect of manyLinnéa UZH has earned the respect of many
Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Quote:
Originally Posted by marton View Post
Saudi Arabia has offered for the first time to send ground troops to Syria to fight help Islamic State, its defence ministry said today.

Source
FTFY

Together they (Saudi Arabia + IS/ISIS/Daesh + Erdogan's henchmen) can behead thrice more innocent people including women and children.




Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank Linnéa UZH for this useful post:
Reply




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Offering: Private Apartment in St. Gallen from 20.03.10 till 10.04.10 jttraveller Property wanted 0 16.01.2010 19:10
FLATshare/RoomShare - anywhere in CH till 30 Sept thick_guy_9 Property wanted 0 27.08.2009 15:19
Flat in basel just for 2 month till novamber? hamdi Property wanted 0 26.08.2008 18:42
Anyone else experiencing roadworks going on till late? argus Complaints corner 12 08.08.2008 14:59
For Sale till next saturday Anton Items for sale 11 11.01.2008 13:13


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 01:47.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0