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  #741  
Old 05.02.2016, 02:40
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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The Arab world doesn't compromise. The winner takes it all, the loser is killed, jailed or exiled. Perhaps Syria will be so devastated by the civil war that both sides will agree on on a ceasefire (not likely, imho). The Russians saved Assad for the time being, but they can't defeat the Rebels /ISIS (see Chechnia). A possible exit strategy for Russia is to replace Assad with another pro Russian.
The Russians need the bases at Tartus and Latakia and for this need the Allawites and for THIS need the ASSAD CLAN
  #742  
Old 05.02.2016, 07:50
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Syria civil war: Up to 70,000 refugees head to Turkey, says PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35495157
Government forces retook Aleppo. Which was held by ISIS jihadists. They simply vanished so must be among the 70,000 refugees heading into Turkey. What a mess.
  #743  
Old 05.02.2016, 08:24
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Government forces retook Aleppo. Which was held by ISIS jihadists. They simply vanished so must be among the 70,000 refugees heading into Turkey. What a mess.
You might want to check your facts. ISIS is close to Aleppo but the Assad forces were fighting anti-Assad rebels in this case. The defeated rebels have plenty of options of retreat. I suspect the vast majority of this latest wave of refugees are simply innocent residents of Aleppo who want to get out before the siege of Aleppo begins. Of course there will be plenty of opportunists who will take advantage of this cover as well.

The real mess is the continued and escalating involvement of Turks, Saudis and Allies who don't really have a common enemy. It appears that their only hope is for continued prolongation of the civil war.
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  #744  
Old 05.02.2016, 08:37
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Government forces retook Aleppo. Which was held by ISIS jihadists. They simply vanished so must be among the 70,000 refugees heading into Turkey. What a mess.
This Syrian war, which we've been observing from far through press clippings, seems like its only a matter of time until we see it up close and personal.

This might be Merkel's idea of a comprehensive peace plan. Light a fuse so everyone will earnestly try to stamp it out before it blows the whole building down.
  #745  
Old 05.02.2016, 10:31
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Oh the irony.....


Didn't Russia enter this fray under the pretense of targeting ISIS? This seems like a risky and desperate move by the Saudis to counter Iran. The only upside I see is a more rapid implosion of the Saudi Kingdom.
Russia targets all groups fighting against the government. That must be part of the reason why the west objected to them joining the fray as Russia also attacks the FSA, which the US consider to be "good", perhaps the Kurds as well.
  #746  
Old 05.02.2016, 13:10
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Let's assume Assad wins the war, The refugees won't probably go back for fear of Assad's revenge and the mess Syria will be or will the host countries force them back ?
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  #747  
Old 05.02.2016, 21:59
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Saudi Arabia has offered for the first time to send ground troops to Syria to fight Islamic State, its defence ministry said today.

Source
The Saudis should probably focus on stopping Yemen forces from trashing their border towns first.
  #748  
Old 05.02.2016, 22:30
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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The Saudis should probably focus on stopping Yemen forces from trashing their border towns first.
The Saudis seem to believe they are winning that one so they can move resources elsewhere; no idea if that is true.
  #749  
Old 07.02.2016, 19:55
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

The civilians of Aleppo are fleeing for a good reason, Assad will do to them what they would have done to the allawites if he would lose.
  #750  
Old 07.02.2016, 20:15
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Government forces retook Aleppo. Which was held by ISIS jihadists. They simply vanished so must be among the 70,000 refugees heading into Turkey. What a mess.
It is true that many people are fleeing Aleppo-
Seems to be premature to claim "Government forces retook Aleppo" - they now have it almost surrounded and are moving into the stage named "starving and shelling civilians".
  #751  
Old 08.02.2016, 22:31
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

As difficult as it is to make predictions about Syria, ONE Thing is clear and that is that the Turks will get rid of Iraqis and Syrians as they do not want an even more sizeable Arab minority inside the Turkish Republic (also as those refugees do not understand or speak Turkish --- neither do the Turks understand / speak Arabic )
  #752  
Old 09.02.2016, 21:52
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Increasing noise from Saudi that they will together with Turkey, or other Gulf states, send ground forces into Syria.

Will not bring much; the only game changer would be supplying the rebels with decent anti-aircraft missiles. Seems to be some sort of invisible barrier against this for reasons that are beyond my understanding.

US were happy to supply rebels in Afghanistan in Russian times with such; also Libya must be full of these weapons
  #753  
Old 10.02.2016, 02:13
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Remember the Democratic Union party (PYD), the leading Kurdish political organisation in north-eastern Syria, which Ankara regards as a terrorist group?

Erdogan was bombing them until he shot down a Russian plane and so got himself banned from overflying Syria.

Well now Putin has invited the PYD to open an office in Moscow; formal opening is today, Wednesday

Source here.

PYD is not recognised as a terrorist group by the USA unlike the PKK!
  #754  
Old 11.02.2016, 18:41
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Typical...

US A-10s bombed city of Aleppo on Wednesday, shifted blame onto Moscow

«Two US Air Force A-10 warplanes carried out airstrikes on Aleppo Wednesday, destroying nine facilities, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported. The same day, the Pentagon accused Moscow of bombing two hospitals, despite no Russian flights over the city

«[T]he more terrorists Russia destroys the more it is being accused of indiscriminate airstrikes.» (Go figure.)

Last edited by Texaner; 11.02.2016 at 18:51.
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Old 11.02.2016, 18:51
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

NATO Propaganda: French media uses Russian footage to show 'Success' of 'Coalition' air strikes in Syria

«...The French TV channel, however, couldn’t find any footage to prove this statement and used footage of Russian airstrikes to demonstrate the precision of Western missiles.»
  #756  
Old 12.02.2016, 00:18
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Dimitry Medvedev, Russia’s prime minister, was quoted today telling Germany’s Handelsblatt daily: “The Americans and our Arab partners must think hard about this – do they want a permanent war? All sides must be forced to the negotiating table instead of sparking a new world war.”

Medvedev was apparently responding to suggestions that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states might join the US-led campaign against Islamic State in Syria.

Source here.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...al-war-warning

Seems to be the clearest statement that we will get that Russia is not interested in fighting ISIS.

Last edited by marton; 12.02.2016 at 00:50.
  #757  
Old 12.02.2016, 12:26
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Dimitry Medvedev, Russia’s prime minister, was quoted today telling Germany’s Handelsblatt daily: “The Americans and our Arab partners must think hard about this – do they want a permanent war? All sides must be forced to the negotiating table instead of sparking a new world war.”

Medvedev was apparently responding to suggestions that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states might join the US-led campaign against Islamic State in Syria.

Source here.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...al-war-warning

Seems to be the clearest statement that we will get that Russia is not interested in fighting ISIS.
He is overestimating the Americans and (above all) the Europeans.
They (we) would never go to war over Syria, thus it would be at best (or at worst) a regional conflict between Russia/Iran/Kurds/Hezbollah against the Sunnis (except the Kurds).
  #758  
Old 12.02.2016, 12:40
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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He is overestimating the Americans and (above all) the Europeans.
They (we) would never go to war over Syria, thus it would be at best (or at worst) a regional conflict between Russia/Iran/Kurds/Hezbollah against the Sunnis (except the Kurds).
I agree about the US and EU not going to war.

The US now has plenty of oil so has little interest in the Middle East now; I see them quietly withdrawing from the ME.

Most cynical example of withdrawl is the Munich announcement today of a Syrian cease fire but the Russians will continue bombing

Strange coincidence about Munich; anybody else remember - "The phrase "peace for our time" was spoken on 30 September 1938 by British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain in his speech concerning the Munich Agreement and the Anglo-German Declaration"!!
  #759  
Old 12.02.2016, 13:02
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Strange coincidence about Munich; anybody else remember - "The phrase "peace for our time" was spoken on 30 September 1938 by British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain in his speech concerning the Munich Agreement and the Anglo-German Declaration"!!
But they never learn the lessons of the past.

With this entire debarcle, there's been a tendency to underplay the important stuff and overplay the incidental stuff. The timeline of various Governments' involvement in Syria compared to the involvement of charitable organisations and individuals, is too familiar. It's all too 1936-39.

I watched a documentary the other week about Sir Nicholas Winton and cried like a baby through most of it because it's still happening now. The parallels of Government involvement and denial to the involvement and action of individuals is plainly there.
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Old 13.02.2016, 17:55
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Claims today that Saudi are deploying jets to Turkey and Turkey’s foreign minister was quoted in local media saying Ankara and Riyadh might launch ground operations against Isis.

Source here, might be behind a paywall.

Will be interesting to see if Russia will launch missiles against Saudia planes over Syria and/or bomb Saudi troops in Syria.
The risk for Russia being that the Saudis will drive the oil prices down even further in retaliation and/or start supplying the rebels with anti-aircraft missiles.

About "Ankara and Riyadh might launch ground operations against Isis." I am getting confused here I thought both countries were actually supporting ISIS. I suppose in reality if these countries do go into Syria their targets will not be ISIS
 




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