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  #821  
Old 14.03.2016, 21:11
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Also Erdogan can claim success in removing the Russians. First Turkish victory against Russia since the middle ages! 😉
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  #822  
Old 14.03.2016, 21:17
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Also Erdogan can claim success in removing the Russians. First Turkish victory against Russia since the middle ages! 😉
Oh right, this is a Turkish spin-doctors dream: "We shot down one Russian fighter plane, and then they withdrew their military and went back home"
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  #823  
Old 14.03.2016, 23:05
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Couple of Gary Kasparov tweets

"Putin's stated mission in Syria was to defeat ISIS. After months of slaughter he's supposedly leaving. But he forgot to attack ISIS."

"More troubling is that now Putin will need a new conflict to fill the Russian news headlines. Can't talk about Russia; it's a disaster."

I agree with the first one but am troubled about the implications of the second one
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  #824  
Old 14.03.2016, 23:28
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Interesting. Either A) Assad pissed off Putin enough that Putin won't fully back him anymore, or B) the EU struck a back-room deal with Putin

...and so if Putin is wrapping up the Syrian campaign, then what's next? With falling oil prices and crumbling Ruble, Putin needs a distraction to keep the Russian people's mind on something else. Back to Ukraine again? Or maybe invade some other weak neighbor that's brimming with "fascists"?
"the EU struck a back-room deal with Putin" Some rumours that the Saudis struck a back door deal with Russia about cutting oil production!!

If we are still around in 60 years then maybe the truth will be released.
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  #825  
Old 14.03.2016, 23:45
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

As Churchill once said "Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma."
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  #826  
Old 16.03.2016, 19:24
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Kurdish-controlled areas of northern Syria are expected to imminently declare a federal system, a move likely to further complicate peace talks in Geneva on ending more than five years of war.

The Kurds appear to be taking matters into their own hands after being excluded from the talks in Geneva, which began on Monday, by drawing up plans to combine three Kurdish-led autonomous areas of northern Syrian into a federal arrangement.

This arrangement, which two senior Kurdish officials said they backed, would be sure to alarm neighboring Turkey, which fears growing Kurdish sway in Syria is fuelling separatism among its own Kurdish minority.

source
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  #827  
Old 17.03.2016, 11:21
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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This arrangement, which two senior Kurdish officials said they backed, would be sure to alarm neighboring Turkey, which fears growing Kurdish sway in Syria is fuelling separatism among its own Kurdish minority...
...and denying Turkey some no-questions-asked cheap oil.
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  #828  
Old 19.03.2016, 01:28
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

It's not unusual!!

Vladimir Putin has today awarded medals to tank and artillery commanders at a ceremony for soldiers who fought in Syria, apparently contradicting the Kremlin’s previous insistence that only its air force was in combat there.
Source.

Spokesman Konashenkov confirmed that five Russian soldiers had died in Syria during the Russian campaign, but declined to comment on Islamic State’s claim that another five Russian soldiers had been killed near Palmyra in recent days.
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  #829  
Old 19.03.2016, 13:08
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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MOSCOW, March 18. /TASS/. Russia’s Aerospace Forces continue delivering airstrikes at terrorist targets in Syria, and Russian jets make 20-25 sorties daily to support the operation to free Palmyra, Lieutenant General Sergey Rudskoy, chief of the main operations department of the Russian General Staff, said on Friday.

"A large-scale operation to free the city of Palmyra has been carried out recently by government forces and patriotic forces with support from Russia’s Aerospace Forces. On average, Russian jets make 20-25 sorties daily," Rudskoy told reporters.
Two days after Russia makes big announcements that they are pulling out of Syria and joining the peace process....they step-up bombing raids and launch a major assault? Looks like Putin is pulling out of Syria the same way he pulled out of Ukraine
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  #830  
Old 19.03.2016, 16:10
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Two days after Russia makes big announcements that they are pulling out of Syria and joining the peace process....they step-up bombing raids and launch a major assault? Looks like Putin is pulling out of Syria the same way he pulled out of Ukraine
Nah, it just looks like he'll finally direct some bombs in ISIS's direction. Tips the balance of the civil war in favor of Assad and now hopes to get the credit for pushing ISIS back to Iraq. Additionally, he found a cheaper way of testing out new technology and dumping old munitions in the process. Genius actually.
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  #831  
Old 19.03.2016, 23:41
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Two days after Russia makes big announcements that they are pulling out of Syria and joining the peace process....they step-up bombing raids and launch a major assault? Looks like Putin is pulling out of Syria the same way he pulled out of Ukraine
20-25 sorties a day is indeed scaled back quite a bit. RT says 9000 sorties during the last five months, that's about 60 each day.

Perhaps the key to it all lies in a minor side note in the article above:
"The Russian campaign also reduced the threat posed to Russia by Islamic militants, as over 2,000 fighters from Russia have been 'eliminated' in Syria, including 17 field commanders."
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  #832  
Old 20.03.2016, 11:33
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Putin probably realized that there is on so much aerial bombardment can do and Russian army would need to send significant numbers of ground troops to win the war for Assad. This would mean Afghanistan-like situation.

Withdrawing now, Assad can negotiate from a better position than last year. A federal Syria (as I suggested before) is more likely: Assad and his tribe gets to stay alive, Russia keeps it's Mediterranean base, the Kurds have practically a state.
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  #833  
Old 21.03.2016, 21:57
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Russia says it will unilaterally start using force against those violating the partial truce in Syria, if the US does not agree to joint rules by Tuesday.

Syria conflict: Russia warns US over truce violations
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35861376
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  #834  
Old 23.03.2016, 14:01
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Clinton Emails: Google Aided State Dept. in Attempt to Overthrow Assad

The latest batch of released Hillary Clinton emails show Google officials working with the State Department to promote “defections” in Syria at a time when the United States was looking to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
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  #835  
Old 23.03.2016, 15:02
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Putin probably realized that there is on so much aerial bombardment can do and Russian army would need to send significant numbers of ground troops to win the war for Assad. This would mean Afghanistan-like situation.

Withdrawing now, Assad can negotiate from a better position than last year. A federal Syria (as I suggested before) is more likely: Assad and his tribe gets to stay alive, Russia keeps it's Mediterranean base, the Kurds have practically a state.
To that I would say that the Russians did far better than the others in managing to get their objectives done.
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  #836  
Old 23.03.2016, 15:15
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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To that I would say that the Russians did far better than the others in managing to get their objectives done.
So far, yes. Knowing what you want, being realistic about the targets and executing your plan with scant regard to world opinion or human rights worked for Putin.
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  #837  
Old 23.03.2016, 15:24
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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So far, yes. Knowing what you want, being realistic about the targets and executing your plan with scant regard to world opinion or human rights worked for Putin.
And scant regard for collateral victims; old fashioned bombs are far cheaper than smart bombs which reduce such damage.
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  #838  
Old 23.03.2016, 15:40
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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...the Russians did far better than the others in managing to get their objectives done.
…perhaps at least in part because those objectives weren't hidden and happened to comply with international law.
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  #839  
Old 23.03.2016, 16:08
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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And scant regard for collateral victims; old fashioned bombs are far cheaper than smart bombs which reduce such damage.
I would guess that smart bombs are more lethal.
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  #840  
Old 23.03.2016, 16:56
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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And scant regard for collateral victims; old fashioned bombs are far cheaper than smart bombs which reduce such damage.
That's what's being said. But does it stand even a rough plausibility test?

According to this article in taz.de Russia killed roughly twice as many civilians than the western coalition since September, in both cases 1/4 were children.

Now, a fair comparison includes the number of raids (bombs or amount of explosives dropped would be better but raids will do). 9000 raids for Russia during the last five months, how many by the west? No idea, a quick search didn't yield any useful info.

Thus a quick plausibility test:
Russia claims to have destroyed 'more than' 1000 oil transport trucks vs 'almost' 400 by the west since september. Assuming everything else equal that actually implies that Russia caused proportionately LESS civilian victims than the west.

But of course nobody could mention that as it would make it difficult to paint Putin as the manic brute he's being portraited as.
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