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  #1061  
Old 05.01.2017, 21:50
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Do you mean to say you think the current situation is better than that before the civil war?
The situation in Atlanta in 1865 was worse than 1860, the situation in Kerry in 1923 was worse than in 1913.

Syria, until the Assads, had coups almost every 2 years. It's an unstable country held together by brute force.

There are no good alternatives for the Syria. allowing it to separate into ethnic states might help.
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  #1062  
Old 06.01.2017, 11:43
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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allowing it to separate into ethnic states might help.
I don't think that'll work. Since every area is claimed by multiple opposing groups splitting Syria up won't work. It might have five years ago but not any longer. Once people have resolved to using rifles to establish "their" area they'll keep doing so unless a strong state disarms them.

I think that's the reason the Kurds are able to set up a state for themselves now: They appear to gather behind a common flag, i.e. are homogenous in this sense even though they're far from having the same religion, and thus strong enough to fend off competition that might otherwise arise.
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  #1063  
Old 06.01.2017, 12:38
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Armed conflict didn't stop yugoslavia from splitting. The separate states may not be very friendly to each other, but could coexist. Very small chance of that happening.

Putin is withrawing some of his forces from Syria, not for the first time and maybe not for the last. Without a strong army Assad probably won't be able to win the war.
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  #1064  
Old 06.01.2017, 13:26
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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The situation in Atlanta in 1865 was worse than 1860, the situation in Kerry in 1923 was worse than in 1913.

Syria, until the Assads, had coups almost every 2 years. It's an unstable country held together by brute force.

There are no good alternatives for the Syria. allowing it to separate into ethnic states might help.
Being of course the guru on such matters you have the solution.

So how long did you live IN Syria?

What was you method of gathering information?

Do you have any sources, any reference to the data collection?

Etc etc etc.

Try this.

Leave them alone.
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  #1065  
Old 06.01.2017, 13:40
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Armed conflict didn't stop yugoslavia from splitting. The separate states may not be very friendly to each other, but could coexist. Very small chance of that happening.

Putin is withrawing some of his forces from Syria, not for the first time and maybe not for the last. Without a strong army Assad probably won't be able to win the war.
"Putin is withrawing some of his forces from Syria" He certainly said that but whether he actually withdrew any forces is not clear; also not clear if he will this time either.
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  #1066  
Old 06.01.2017, 13:50
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Try this.

Leave them alone.
Innocent Syrians need safe zones. Other than that, with Obama out, and Hillary rejected, we should see the Syrian conflict de-escalate in the Spring.
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  #1067  
Old 06.01.2017, 13:53
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Innocent Syrians need safe zones. Other than that, with Obama out, and Hillary rejected, we should see the Syrian conflict de-escalate in the Spring.
Naive
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  #1068  
Old 06.01.2017, 13:55
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Naive
Even worse than naive is Obama and people like yourself saying safe zones are too difficult to provide. I would choose naivety over cynicism in this case. ;-)


Trump said he would get the Gulf states to pay for them.
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  #1069  
Old 06.01.2017, 14:16
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Naive
I'm not so sure about that. Once they no longer have US weapons things may indeed calm down.

Edit:
And handing them MANPADS, as already authorized by congress, would be stupid beyond compare.

Last edited by Urs Max; 06.01.2017 at 16:07.
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  #1070  
Old 06.01.2017, 22:45
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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So are you claiming that those fighting Assad are from abroad? No locals?
Not exactly. I'm saying many of them are fighting a proxy war on behalf of external backers. Their only common goal is to get Assad to give up power, which is conspicuously exactly what US regime has been saying since he won't acquiesce to Washington's global hegemony. But the fighters don't have a person, let alone a viable, cohesive blueprint for another government, in the event that Assad were actually to be ousted.

In a real civil war, the opposing parties both typically have identifiable, competing models of governance as well as identifiable people who are ready to implement them. Such doesn't appear to be the case here (though I'm sure Washington would be only too happy to supply them, should the need arise).
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  #1071  
Old 06.01.2017, 23:49
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

I've been following Syria for years and all my posts are backed by facts and quotes from credible sources. Putin is withrawing his aircraft carrier.

Where will the "safe zones" be? No reasonable plan was presented, because it would be complex, dangerous, expensive and politically very difficult.

As for the war calming down by spring - like before, shall we bet on it, phos?
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  #1072  
Old 07.01.2017, 02:00
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Their only common goal is to get Assad to give up power, which is conspicuously exactly what US regime has been saying since he won't acquiesce to Washington's global hegemony.
And what would the reason for Putin backing Assad be?

1) Trying to preserve one of Russia's last few remaining allies in the world
2) To project power in an attempt to restore some of the "glory" and global relevance that the USSR once had
3) To take the focus off Russia's failing economy and domestic problems
4) To take the focus off Russia's failed attempt to seize Eastern Ukraine
5) To test out new weapons and have "live fire" training for troops
6) All of the above

...oh, sorry, I forgot

7) To fight ISIS and terrorists

(Hint: it's not 7)
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  #1073  
Old 07.01.2017, 02:10
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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I'm not so sure about that. Once they no longer have US weapons things may indeed calm down.

Edit:
And handing them MANPADS, as already authorized by congress, would be stupid beyond compare.
Plenty of Middle East nations supplying both sides with weapons
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  #1074  
Old 07.01.2017, 11:40
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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I've been following Syria for years and all my posts are backed by facts and quotes from credible sources. Putin is withrawing his aircraft carrier.

Where will the "safe zones" be? No reasonable plan was presented, because it would be complex, dangerous, expensive and politically very difficult.

As for the war calming down by spring - like before, shall we bet on it, phos?
"Putin is withrawing his aircraft carrier. " Well it was only there for show; practically useless as military support for this campaign.
After they lost two of their best aircraft (which they can ill afford) simply during landing/takeoff they transferred all the aircraft to a land base so the aircraft carrier just became an expensive ornament.

As you posted, without the Russian manpower Assad is unlikely to make further gains, maybe even sustain losses.
As a practical example, after Syrian and Russian forces were withdrawn from Palmyra to support the fight for Aleppo so Islamic State fighters reconquered this historic city of Palmyra last month.

Putin is stuck in this quagmire like everybody else, it is costing him a lot of money which he does not have. But if he withdraws and Assad starts to lose ground again then he will be accused of having a failed strategy that wasted lives and money for nothing.
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  #1075  
Old 07.01.2017, 17:37
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

Well, at least the Russians spent their time (and money) there killing terrorists.
This is a good thing, no matter what happens next.

How many terrorists has NATO killed in the Middle East since the "Arabic spring"?
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  #1076  
Old 07.01.2017, 17:52
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Well, at least the Russians spent their time (and money) there killing terrorists, civilians, doctors and destroying hospitals.
This is a good thing, no matter what happens next.

How many terrorists has NATO killed in the Middle East since the "Arabic spring"?
Fixed that for you
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  #1077  
Old 08.01.2017, 00:20
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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Fixed that for you
It didn't need fixing.
If you have no arguments of your own, please leave mine alone.
In the meantime the people of Aleppo can finally start rebuilding their city, now that it's clean of Sunni terrorists.
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  #1078  
Old 08.01.2017, 20:38
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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now that it's clean of Sunni terrorists.
I wouldn't subscribe to that. In fact I think IS will resort to suicide bombs sooner rather than later.
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  #1079  
Old 08.01.2017, 20:50
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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It didn't need fixing.
If you have no arguments of your own, please leave mine alone.
In the meantime the people of Aleppo can finally start rebuilding their city, now that it's clean of Sunni terrorists.
NATO killedplenty of ISIS terrorsits in Syria & Iraq.
Unlike Russia & Assad, NATO didn't use indiscriminate bombing.

Rebuilding Aleppo ? very far from certain. Assad Senior never rebuild Hama.
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  #1080  
Old 08.01.2017, 21:20
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Re: Syria - It ain't over till it's over

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It didn't need fixing.
If you have no arguments of your own, please leave mine alone.
In the meantime the people of Aleppo can finally start rebuilding their city, now that it's clean of Sunni terrorists.
"In the meantime the people of Aleppo can finally start rebuilding their city" With no money, no building materials and no support from their Govt.? Which Govt. anyway has no money because they let ISIS steal all their oil fields and had zero help from Russia against ISIS!
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